GOLD

[LauraB]

More shine taken off gold in India:

 

Glitter gone from contest, cricket cup loses gold

 

Never mind, there is gold elsewhere.

 

One in the morning, listening to Test Match Special -- & special it is

 

England 609 - 9

 

Matt Prior out, 118. Swann just in & hits a four & a six. 619 - 9 - Another 4 - 623 - 9

 

Twenty off Johnson's over by nos 10 & 11 batsmen; now that is rubbing it in.

 

Test cricket, the greatest game of all

 

[Happy Nihilist]

Some interesting observations by Ross Clark here

 

 

 

E.g. ?

 

[Errol]

Gold is not a bubble now. Eventually it will be reintegrated into the world financial system in some way (basket, Gold certificate ratio etc).

[G0ldfinger]

People are showing me information that gold and gold mining as a share of global financial assets [excl. gold] are still at an all time low of below 15% or so, while at previous peaks this ratio was over 100% (i.e. gold-related investments making up more than half of all financial assets at a gold market top).

 

No bubble in sight.

 

WE ARE STILL AT AN ALL TIME LOW FOR GOLD INVESTMENTS, FFS!!!!

 

(Sorry, but sometimes it has to be said loud and clear.)

[frizzers]

Never mind, there is gold elsewhere.

 

One in the morning, listening to Test Match Special -- & special it is

 

England 609 - 9

 

Matt Prior out, 118. Swann just in & hits a four & a six. 619 - 9 - Another 4 - 623 - 9

 

Twenty off Johnson's over by nos 10 & 11 batsmen; now that is rubbing it in.

 

Test cricket, the greatest game of all

Yes, yes, yes ... are you sure you're a woman?

[romans holiday]

How we measure monetary value:

 

 

Dollar price-centric: "OMG.... what happened? Gold has lost $50 in a week!!"

 

Gold value-centric: "Relax, you have to see it in monetary terms, which helps by using the log. Relative to gold, dollars in 2011 are not what they used to be in say 2006. A price decline of $50 back then represented a loss of 10%... today a decline [consolidation] of $50 is only 3.5%".

 

 

[romans holiday]

[Crashman begins]

Yes, yes, yes ... are you sure you're a woman?

 

x 2

[aliveandkicking]

People are showing me information that gold and gold mining as a share of global financial assets [excl. gold] are still at an all time low of below 15% or so, while at previous peaks this ratio was over 100% (i.e. gold-related investments making up more than half of all financial assets at a gold market top).

 

No bubble in sight.

 

WE ARE STILL AT AN ALL TIME LOW FOR GOLD INVESTMENTS, FFS!!!!

 

(Sorry, but sometimes it has to be said loud and clear.)

 

At previous peaks there was a good chance or at least the belief governments would be forced back on to the gold standard. I really cannot see it happening. A government on a gold standard can always abandon that policy whenever it wants so gold standards and inflation targeting are essentially similar.

 

And 40 years ago there were not the same possibilities for investing that are available today for sophisticated investors and mums and dads and amateurs etc. People concerned about the price of gold today can move to something likely to give them what they think is a better return with less anxiety as they see the situation. Governments can hold uranium or just about anything else they think is a good store of value if they want to hold commodities.

 

Gold money is not coming back unless our current culture is replaced by something a bit more primitive.

 

So looking at historic levels of investing in gold is not likely to give you much of an idea about what is relevant now.

 

The fact that a top value credit card is a platinum card and just about anybody has a gold card reflects this simple reality.

 

Anyway for the time being gold looks like it is going lower again.

 

 

 

 

 

[electroweak]

Gold money is not coming back unless our current culture is replaced by something a bit more primitive.*

 

So looking at historic levels of investing in gold is not likely to give you much of an idea about what is relevant now.

 

The fact that a top value credit card is a platinum card and just about anybody has a gold card reflects this simple reality.**

 

Anyway for the time being gold looks like it is going lower again.

 

* It will come back by popular demand for something which performs the function of money better than printed or electronic 0's.

** You don't want money to be too rare...Platinum does not work as money (least, not as well as gold) for many reasons you have not bothered to research or think about.

[aliveandkicking]

* It will come back by popular demand for something which performs the function of money better than printed or electronic 0's.

** You don't want money to be too rare...Platinum does not work as money (least, not as well as gold) for many reasons you have not bothered to research or think about.

 

You seem fond of the line that people who do not agree with you are ignorant and cannot be bothered to learn what you have learnt that is so important to you. But at least you are not ignoring me any longer.

 

Electronic money performs the function of money much better than gold, as much as gold performs the function of money better than electronic money.

 

Commodity money is irrelevant in our modern world and therefore platinum money is irrelevant.

 

All monies can be abused and none are perfect. Gold would bring no magic answers to transform peoples lives.

[LauraB]

Yes, yes, yes ... are you sure you're a woman?

 

 

It's just not cricket is it Dom?! - Did you ever hear Peter Tinniswood's 'Apartheid' on radio4? Probably before your time, it is a 15 minute monologue with Robin Bailey on why 'they' are inferior & should never be allowed in. It's only in the last two minutes you realise he is talking about women at the MCC !

 

Drop-dead gorgeous Imran Khan turned more women on (to the game) than at any time in the great game's history imho.

 

Sorry guys, no apologies, gold is second best to test cricket

[carbon junkie]

Sorry guys, no apologies, gold is second best to test cricket

Absolutely, I hope Gold performs better than those useless Aussies. Shame it had to end down under!

 

3-1 to the Engerland and well done the barmy army.

[Pixel8r]

Absolutely, I hope Gold performs better than those useless Aussies. Shame it had to end down under!

 

3-1 to the Engerland and well done the barmy army.

This thread is worth a read on what to expect from gold & silver over the next month.

 

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%...mp;frt=2#381868

 

In short a smackdown on gold which could take silver down a bit followed by an almighty rally. JPM getting taken to the cleaners by the hedgies on the March contract.

 

My $40 silver prediction for the end of February is still looking on track.

 

 

[frizzers]

It's just not cricket is it Dom?! - Did you ever hear Peter Tinniswood's 'Apartheid' on radio4? Probably before your time, it is a 15 minute monologue with Robin Bailey on why 'they' are inferior & should never be allowed in. It's only in the last two minutes you realise he is talking about women at the MCC !

 

Drop-dead gorgeous Imran Khan turned more women on (to the game) than at any time in the great game's history imho.

 

Sorry guys, no apologies, gold is second best to test cricket

[sid]

 

Super Force Signals - A Leading Market Timing Service

 

We Take Every Trade Ourselves

 

Gold: The $1260 to $1500 RoadMap

 

Morris Hubbartt

Weekly Market Update Excerpt

 

posted Jan 7, 2011

 

 

Gold and Precious Metals

 

UUP Dollar Chart

 

US Dollar Analysis:

 

 

 

I told you week ago, “A stronger dollar into the first few weeks of the New Year will allow a correction in GOLD.”

 

The US Dollar showed declining volume as price dropped, so I knew a “pop” to the upside was near. This week the opposite has occurred. Up volume is already fading down again as price goes higher.

 

This is a clear sign for further gains in Gold, over the intermediate to longer term. Volume patterns can’t be encouraging to the Dollar Bulls. They are going to get a beating.

 

Wait till you look at my charts this week; you will see the theme for Gold is, “first a little pain, and then a giant gain!”.

 

The Dollar rally is volume-anaemic, and I expect my predicted move higher in the short-intermediate term to play out almost exactly as I projected to you. Look at my projected move down for the dollar as the rally dies!

 

Of serious concern for the dollar is the 8 plus trillion dollar market cap in outstanding US treasuries. That massive market cap is accompanied by a never-ending supply of new Government issued debt. If you take inventory of the outstanding liabilities, the numbers are staggering. The US National debt just hit $14 trillion.

 

I believe the biggest statistical nightmare, from a fundamental perspective, is the $112 trillion in unfunded liabilities. Think about that term, “unfunded”. That is double-speak for debt. That debt is real and it is owed.

 

Thomas Jefferson, remember him? Well, he warned of the immense damage that would occur if the people assigned control of the money supply to the banking sector. "I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies”.

Where are your liberties? Ask the banks. Your liberties are in their deepest vaults. What do you have in return? Paper money that might be going to zero. Was the trade worth it?

 

The glut of overspending by government officials could have never taken place if it were not for the Fiat Currency system adopted in 1971. Government social policies are creating the very thing Jefferson warned you about.

 

SGOL 6 Month Price Chart

 

 

Gold Bullion Analysis:

 

My predictions of a week ago are playing out exactly. I have focused you on the floor support for Gold at 1260. I am an incremental buyer all the way down to that 1260 point.

 

I have to wonder how well investors will handle a decline to 1260. It has been a year or so since we have seen a nasty Gold decline. Bull Markets convince people they can never go down, and then… look out below! Can you handle it, are you buying?

 

The fundamental Story for higher Gold couldn’t be any better than it is. Yet, corrections need to come to supply the Bull Markets. Policy Elites with no business experience initiate Stupid Math Economics, which supposes that Consumption equals prosperity. In reality, this action creates inflation and a weaker dollar, producing nothing but a higher cost of living and a lower standard of living! At the same time, the price of Gold and all other commodities increases dramatically.

 

The main key to the continuing Bull Market in Gold is the enormous debt. The debt of the US will propel Gold higher. A lot of the debt is hidden, so the ultimate high price for gold may also be hidden.

 

SGOL 14 Month Price Chart

 

 

Analysis: A long term BULLISH picture with short term warning remains the theme.

 

The most notable action of the week was somewhat higher volume on lower prices indicating further weakness is likely. That is the story in the short term, yet the longer term volume has declined since the corrective action started in November.

 

Short term: Mild Pain. Long term: Giant Gain!

 

I used the heavy volume picture in early November to predict a gold market correction while most were talking an acceleration of the price. Now I’m telling you that the overall down volume in the current decline will bring you higher prices over the intermediate term. Note my specific targets on the charts.

 

Corrections in Bull Markets can be violent and downright frightening. Peter Lynch was possibly the greatest mutual fund manger of our lifetimes. He managed the Fidelity Magellan Fund with a return of approximately 29% annually. Yet only 30% of his shareholders ever made money! How can that be? It was because…

 

They sold out when price came down!

 

Gold Juniors GDXJ Chart

 

Gold Juniors Analysis:

 

I issued a Buy Signal on Jan 4th.

 

My Superforce Analysis was extremely accurate over the last week. I believe in the short term prices will continue to decline. In the very shortest term, I expect a pause in the decline, but it is not over.

 

My short term GDXJ target since the November time line has been $34. As some of you get to know me, you’ll see I don’t waffle on my stated predictions or “re-evaluate” very often.

 

Once the correction ends, my one year target is: $75. There is a high danger to investors that the correction ends suddenly and leaves them behind as price rockets higher with tremendous volatility.

 

GDX 6 Month Chart

 

 

Note the commentary on the above GDX chart. The 57-54 price target on GDX is one of the best all around buying opportunities in any market for 2011, and I stand by that prediction.

 

GDX Massive Breakout On 3 Year Chart

 

The most undervalued story on all of Wall Street is GDX, in my opinion, and for the most part, the crowd is totally missing it. Stocks got whacked hard in 2008 including GDX; since then Gold has made one new high after another. I believe gold stocks are assuming the leadership position. Many times leadership rotates in corrections. GDX is a fantastic long term buy and will be up dramatically from here.

 

Silver 5 month Chart

 

 

I don’t cover silver every week because the story right now is very much the same as the other sectors. Volume longer term is a Bullish picture.

 

I mention it today because my technicals tell me that we are likely about another down day or so away from a fresh Buy Signal, but I think that any rally will then see even lower prices. Like with gold and gold stocks, I don’t think the correction is over.

Work continues on my unique ARB TRADER program to mimic what the banks do with the triple leveraged ETFs to milk investors, and a January 14th hoped-for launch is on schedule. The inefficiencies in the structure of the ETFs can be exploited and Peter Lynch style profits booked while acting more as a bookie than a gambler in the market!

 

Jan 7, 2011 Super Force Signals special offer for 321Gold Readers: Since mid October I have booked you almost 70 wins and zero losses. Send an email to trading@superforcesignals.com and I'll email you 3 of my Super Force Surge Signals, as I send them to paid subscribers, to you for free! I'll also include my new video "History and Outcome of Fiat Currency since 1971". Thank-you!

 

 

The SuperForce Proprietary SURGE index SIGNALS:

 

25 Surge Index Buy or 25 Surge Index Sell: Solid Power.

50 Surge Index Buy or 50 Surge Index Sell: Stronger Power.

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100 Surge Index Buy or 100 Surge Index Sell: "Over The Top" Power.

 

Stay alert for our surge signals, sent by email to subscribers, for both the daily charts on Super Force Signals at www.superforcesignals.com and for the 60 minute charts at www.superforce60.com

 

About Super Force Signals:

Our Surge Index Signals are created thru our proprietary blend of the highest quality technical analysis and many years of successful business building. We are two business owners with excellent synergy. We understand risk and reward. Our subscribers are generally successfully business owners, people like yourself with speculative funds, looking for serious management of your risk and reward in the market.

 

Frank Johnson: Executive Editor, Macro Risk Manager.

Morris Hubbartt: Chief Market Analyst, Trading Risk Specialist.

 

website: www.superforcesignals.com

email: trading@superforcesignals.com

email: trading@superforce60.com

 

###

 

Jan 7, 2011

Morris Hubbartt

 

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sfs/hubbartt010711.html

[frizzers]

This guy's asking to get flamed ...

 

http://www.investmentu.com/2011/January/wh...r-gold-now.html

[warpig]

He's not worth the effort, but what div, he pulled the "barbarous relic" card...

 

This guy's asking to get flamed ...

 

http://www.investmentu.com/2011/January/wh...r-gold-now.html

 

[romans holiday]

This guy's asking to get flamed ...

 

http://www.investmentu.com/2011/January/wh...r-gold-now.html

A good case study of investors' failure to re-conceptualize gold today.

 

1] Gold shouldn't primarily be considered an investment but a currency/ prime form of liquidity. In other words, disinvestment.

 

2] Failing to consider this, leads to a conventional anxiety in the investor community towards gold in a deflationary environment, where capital will want to retreat from assets to currencies.

 

3] This anxiety is also apparent in the gold bug community... and the response is to either contextualize "massive volatility" within an on-going bull market, or to just continue chanting the monetary mantras.

 

Personally, I don't think we'll see that great a volatility in the US dollar gold price, but rather the continuation of the long term trend that I post often. This trend has consistently held over the past year..... even in times of increased nervousness.

[Rosco]

FT article on valuation of gold;

 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/33aba278-1a96-11...l#axzz1AeLkzqvU

 

 

[warpig]

From the article in the link. TBH he doesn't really know what he's talking about... I expected better reporting from the FT.

 

Wall Street’s gold bugs make even less effort to identify value. They merely point to the fact that gold has tended to rise when interest rates have been negative. What they fail to mention is that the gold bubble of 1980 collapsed rapidly after Fed chairman Paul Volcker started raising rates. Over the following two years, the gold price fell by two-thirds. The question of valuation, however tricky, should not be ignored. Gold needs to fall by nearly 70 per cent to reach its long-term average price in inflation-adjusted dollars. To come back in line with its cost of production, the gold price would have to decline by about 55 per cent. Relative to the price of bread, gold is about 40 per cent overvalued and relative to oil it is 9 per cent expensive.

 

Only in terms of silver does gold appear somewhat cheap. The bulls hope that in real terms gold can regain its 1980 bubble peak, which would provide an upside of more than 70 per cent. But the average of our crude valuation metrics suggests a fair value for gold of less than $1,000 an ounce, about a third below the current price.

 

This is not to say gold will not rise over the coming year or that there is no need to hedge inflation risks. Rather that prudent investors should look to other, less meretricious, assets to protect the purchasing power of their savings.

 

FT article on valuation of gold;

 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/33aba278-1a96-11...l#axzz1AeLkzqvU

[Rosco]

From the article in the link. TBH he doesn't really know what he's talking about... I expected better reporting from the FT.

 

 

Hmmm..... not too sure about that.

I would say he raises some interesting points ie I agree with him gold is very difficult to value.

I dont know whether it is worth $500 or $5000... I guess he is just saying it is a little higher than historical data suggests it should be against other items.

[warpig]

His valuation clearly defines it as a commodity and not as a monetary metal, irrespective of what he describes earlier on in the article. He doesn't get it IMO.

 

Hmmm..... not too sure about that.

I would say he raises some interesting points ie I agree with him gold is very difficult to value.

I dont know whether it is worth $500 or $5000... I guess he is just saying it is a little higher than historical data suggests it should be against other items.

 

[crushtherents]

* It will come back by popular demand for something which performs the function of money better than printed or electronic 0's.

** You don't want money to be too rare...Platinum does not work as money (least, not as well as gold) for many reasons you have not bothered to research or think about.

why is gold better than platinum for money?

 

[warpig]

If stored in the right conditions, used lightly for industry, not issued as legal tender and valued appropriately, technically it could back a currency. Gold however is a better alternative.

 

why is gold better than platinum for money?