G0ldfinger Posted September 13, 2009 Author Report Share Posted September 13, 2009 Below we list the popular consensus about gold that we heard over the years since 2000, prefaced by the cumulative average gold price that year. ... Great post. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted September 13, 2009 Report Share Posted September 13, 2009 I do not understand the problem. Does that suggest that the price of gold will plummet or that the bullion banks will get caught with thier pants down? Rest assured I don't either I don't think it really reaches a conclusion to what will happen, just that it is a very scary situation that is developing and that either outcome will bring a lot of problems. I think that he is commenting on why the short positions are being allowed to reach such ridiculous levels, that obviously can not be fulfilled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWIW Posted September 13, 2009 Report Share Posted September 13, 2009 Rest assured I don't either I don't think it really reaches a conclusion to what will happen, just that it is a very scary situation that is developing and that either outcome will bring a lot of problems. I think that he is commenting on why the short positions are being allowed to reach such ridiculous levels, that obviously can not be fulfilled. Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt. Mindless FUD....only thing it proves is that the money masters will not give up without a fight. Stay strong, long and physical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Pipples Posted September 13, 2009 Report Share Posted September 13, 2009 He's got his head screwed on backwards! The commerc ials accomodated huge buying by the Hedgies, How soon will they run out of capital to chase these speculative Gold positions? They are hot money people, after all... Powered by strong buying from Spec Longs. Their net Gold futures position increased $5.6 billion (+28%) in a single week! What you saying here, Bubb? That you see the Hedgies running out of steam and a big slam down real soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted September 13, 2009 Report Share Posted September 13, 2009 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment...ing-frenzy.html Gold investors warned to liquidate after 'buying frenzy' London's leading gold forecaster has advised clients to liquidate holdings of gold and silver until the latest speculative fever abates, warning that futures contracts on New York's Comex exchange are flashing warning signals. ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWIW Posted September 13, 2009 Report Share Posted September 13, 2009 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment...ing-frenzy.html Oh please let the sheep sell their gold....for me to buy, someone has to sell! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted September 13, 2009 Report Share Posted September 13, 2009 Can anyone explain why against $silver or $gold the bollinger bands (20,2) are splaying open like a river mouth? EDIT: Don't worry this explains it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted September 13, 2009 Report Share Posted September 13, 2009 So... Any predictions for next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWIW Posted September 13, 2009 Report Share Posted September 13, 2009 Here's my prediction: Top grey blob = We are above the top bollinger band. TA only traders will see this as a time to short gold. This goes against my fundamental views that fiat currency is exponentially being printed, and therefore gold will go higher eventually. Lower grey blob = Gold RSI on weekly is not in overbought region, therefore should move up. Also the MACD looks like it has stored some potential coiled energy, to make the move explosive. These are just my opinions - I will be buying gold all the way down to zero!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted September 14, 2009 Report Share Posted September 14, 2009 Thanks. We had an ascending triple top breakout on 11th, but as you say we're at the top of the trading range, so profits will likely be taken assuming the market isn't spooked by China or Barricks. It will be an interesting week I hope. Here's my prediction: Top grey blob = We are above the top bollinger band. TA only traders will see this as a time to short gold. This goes against my fundamental views that fiat currency is exponentially being printed, and therefore gold will go higher eventually. Lower grey blob = Gold RSI on weekly is not in overbought region, therefore should move up. Also the MACD looks like it has stored some potential coiled energy, to make the move explosive. These are just my opinions - I will be buying gold all the way down to zero!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted September 14, 2009 Report Share Posted September 14, 2009 I expect gold to take a breather here. And I'd be glad if it did. But certainly wont be selling. The market seems to be defying logic at every turn. The only thing to do is buy the dips. Or do what the Chinese are doing. Just keep buying unloading those dollars. They seem pretty good at this chess game Ultimately Gold must be the winner. All else is distraction, noise and obfustication. This week will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted September 14, 2009 Report Share Posted September 14, 2009 Phase 4? Why gold in the Kondratieff Winter? *The following lays out the sequence of the events following the 1929 stock market crash. Phase 1 "A flight from questionable securities into strong securities." This occurred during the initial stock market crash in 1929. The stock market recovered 50% of its losses into April 1930. Then as the bear market resumed, all securities, except for the gold shares, were sold regardless of quality. Following the stock market peak in October 2007, this flight from questionable securities into strong securities gathered momentum into November 2008. Following a probable stock market partial recovery into April 2009, all securities, except for gold shares, will likely be sold, as the bear market resumes with a vengeance. Phase 2 "An intense liquidation of inventories and commodities" Then, 1930-1933; now, starting in July 2008 and continuing into a deflationary bottom, perhaps by 2012. Phase 3 "The liquidation of commercial real estate, houses and farms, both through foreclosures and sacrifice sales at a fraction of prior values." Then-1930-1939; now, houses-starting in July 2007; commercial real estate just beginning; and farms to follow. Phase 4 "The flight from banks into cash and gold (which ultimately caused the whole US banking system to collapse.)"-Then-1930-1933; now, mid-2008, perhaps until mid-2009; by which time US T-Bills are likely to become suspect monetary investments, which would make gold the ultimate store of value. Phase 5 "The flight from the dollar to gold."-Then, October 1931-March 1933. In 1933, President Roosevelt stopped the flight to gold by suspending gold convertibility for the dollar and confiscating all privately held gold. Thereafter, the only way Americans could own gold was by investing in gold company shares. Nevertheless, the value of Homestake Mining shares had already tripled prior to the confiscation. This 5th stage is still pending, awaiting the demise of the dollar. (Ian Gordon's site BTW.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted September 14, 2009 Report Share Posted September 14, 2009 Phase 4? Why gold in the Kondratieff Winter? *The following lays out the sequence of the events following the 1929 stock market crash. Phase 1 "A flight from questionable securities into strong securities." This occurred during the initial stock market crash in 1929. The stock market recovered 50% of its losses into April 1930. Then as the bear market resumed, all securities, except for the gold shares, were sold regardless of quality. Following the stock market peak in October 2007, this flight from questionable securities into strong securities gathered momentum into November 2008. Following a probable stock market partial recovery into April 2009, all securities, except for gold shares, will likely be sold, as the bear market resumes with a vengeance. Phase 2 "An intense liquidation of inventories and commodities" Then, 1930-1933; now, starting in July 2008 and continuing into a deflationary bottom, perhaps by 2012. Phase 3 "The liquidation of commercial real estate, houses and farms, both through foreclosures and sacrifice sales at a fraction of prior values." Then-1930-1939; now, houses-starting in July 2007; commercial real estate just beginning; and farms to follow. Phase 4 "The flight from banks into cash and gold (which ultimately caused the whole US banking system to collapse.)"-Then-1930-1933; now, mid-2008, perhaps until mid-2009; by which time US T-Bills are likely to become suspect monetary investments, which would make gold the ultimate store of value. Phase 5 "The flight from the dollar to gold."-Then, October 1931-March 1933. In 1933, President Roosevelt stopped the flight to gold by suspending gold convertibility for the dollar and confiscating all privately held gold. Thereafter, the only way Americans could own gold was by investing in gold company shares. Nevertheless, the value of Homestake Mining shares had already tripled prior to the confiscation. This 5th stage is still pending, awaiting the demisedecline of the dollar. (Ian Gordon's site BTW.) Corrected. This is what I have called hyper-deflation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueNorth Posted September 14, 2009 Report Share Posted September 14, 2009 "GOLD IS NOW UNDERWRITTEN BY CHINA" -- from Matterhorn Asset Management: MAM "GOLD IS NOW UNDERWRITTEN BY CHINA" . . . . So China buys other currencies, they use their reserves to buy real assets, especially in the ground, in Africa, South America and other continents and they buy gold. The Chinese government understands what is happening in the world and they have a long term plan to apply their reserves to areas which have real value and which will benefit their economy for years to come. Of course, they have the advantage of not having to worry about short term pressures such as being re-elected. China is promoting gold and silver on state television. They are urging their people to buy gold and especially silver which they consider very cheap currently (we agree). They are also buying gold with their reserves and they are getting out of the dollar as quickly as they can. The message can’t be more clear. China with its $2 trillion of reserves and with a population of 1.3 billion are major buyers of gold and silver. The effect of this is that the gold price is underwritten for some time to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted September 14, 2009 Report Share Posted September 14, 2009 He's got his head screwed on backwards! Who Ted Butler or Ed Steer? The commercials accomodated huge buying by the Hedgies,How soon will they run out of capital to chase these speculative Gold positions? They are hot money people, after all... Powered by strong buying from Spec Longs. Their net Gold futures position increased $5.6 billion (+28%) in a single week! The commercials are going short to accommodate the longs by hedge funds, that much is clear. You ask "How soon will they run out of capital to chase these speculative longs?" What happens if the long side stands for delivery? Who is to say that these longs are just speculative, why couldn't it also be the chinese taking the long side and standing for delivery. Also some hedge funds are now shifting out from paper gold to physical, could that not be part of this. This game that the commercials are playing carries on working until the time comes that people get fed up with paper & call for the real thing. My question would be "How long before they run out of gold to keep the price down?" IMO this is exactly the sort of action we should see before a large breakout above $1000. We now just need to hear the old highway man saying of "Stand and Deliver" From: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VPgHbt0ODr4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted September 14, 2009 Author Report Share Posted September 14, 2009 ... You ask "How soon will they run out of capital to chase these speculative longs?" ... http://jsmineset.com/2009/09/13/in-the-news-today-310/ Thought for a Sunny Sunday: "The possibility of a short squeeze is one reason some analysts look at a high amount of short interest as a bullish indicator. Short Interest is the fuel, performance is the fuse, says ShortSqueeze.com" –USA Today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted September 14, 2009 Report Share Posted September 14, 2009 http://jsmineset.com/2009/09/13/in-the-news-today-310/ Thought for a Sunny Sunday: "The possibility of a short squeeze is one reason some analysts look at a high amount of short interest as a bullish indicator. Short Interest is the fuel, performance is the fuse, says ShortSqueeze.com" –USA Today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted September 14, 2009 Report Share Posted September 14, 2009 This is what I have called hyper-deflation. Yes. I realize it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesspeed Posted September 14, 2009 Report Share Posted September 14, 2009 http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/KI15Dj08.html Gold a hedge and no more - yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted September 14, 2009 Author Report Share Posted September 14, 2009 http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/KI15Dj08.html Gold a hedge and no more - yet That's what you think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted September 14, 2009 Report Share Posted September 14, 2009 http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/KI15Dj08.html Gold a hedge and no more - yet Strictly speaking, gold isn't an investment but an insurance policy against a breakdown of the functioning of the world financial system. In particular, it represents insurance against the breakdown of the political understandings that make possible a world financial system === But the dollar is so large that nothing can substitute for it. When the pound sterling collapsed under the weight of Britain's debt from two world wars, the huge American economy was there to offer the dollar as a substitute. Professor Robert Mundell, the great economist who won the 1999 Nobel Prize for inventing modern international economics, was the father of the euro. He now is proposing to substitute a basket of currencies for the dollar. But that implies a degree of monetary and political cooperation across countries that post-war Europe was able to achieve but the present world will not. Much as I revere Mundell, I do not think his present plan is practical. I am surprised the author does not envisage another role for gold, that is, outside of an investment or an insurance policy. The second passage above suggests the need for an international currency capable of both stabilizing national currencies and balancing trade [rebuilding the global economy]. This is where the practical and historical role of gold, as an international exchange standard, will be rediscovered. I have my money on gold-backed SDRs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted September 14, 2009 Author Report Share Posted September 14, 2009 Oh please let the sheep sell their gold....for me to buy, someone has to sell! John Reade, who else could be behind it? If I worked at UBS and was up to the eyes in gold shorts*, what would I tell Ambrose to write? *This is only an assumption, in all fairness. But isn't he kind of a perma-bear? Can we find out what UBS has in gold shorts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted September 14, 2009 Report Share Posted September 14, 2009 How much gold is in Fort Knox? (31/03/09) Old clip but still interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesspeed Posted September 14, 2009 Report Share Posted September 14, 2009 That's what you think. To be honest I got out of Gold Shares 3 weeks ago - just at the wrong time , so am hoping for a good pull back to get back in / Perhaps this Friday will be the start of a market correction , with gold and stocks lower , $ higher . I do think that Gold has perhaps gone up too fast too quickly , before inflation is showing any signs - and if there is a market crash as many are predicting the $ should rise as all else falls . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted September 14, 2009 Report Share Posted September 14, 2009 I do think that Gold has perhaps gone up too fast too quickly , before inflation is showing any signs - and if there is a market crash as many are predicting the $ should rise as all else falls . I really don't understand this thinking, haven't we been on a been really going nowhere for a year and a half now. I also don't really understand why people think the dollar will gain strength if the market falls, just because it happened last time doesn't mean it will again. Would recommend listening to the Peter Schiff interview on FSN third hour - part 2 http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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