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I'll use a combination of your suggestions (although not the £20 on fire one, GOM (at least not literally)!)

I took a £10 note my brother had left on the kitchen table and started tearing it in half. My brother soon stopped me. He now believes me, but he has a great way of protecting his money from inflation - he squanders it all on drink and women. :rolleyes:

 

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I just had a thought (don't laugh :D ).

 

Some of the popular small bullion coins are historical, circulated coins like British sovereigns, French 20 francs etc.

 

These are plain bullion coins because they are pretty common.

 

The question is, and I'm hoping some real coin expert (id5 maybe) could answer this, just how common are these coins?

 

How many Victoria soverigns are there in the world and how many Bonaparte 20 Francs, for example?

 

Are most of them still in existence or have many been remolded for other purposes?

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But when you sell the metal on from the company you have to pay the VAT so I don't see how this will help... Whats the trick I am missing Pixel8r?

 

Yes when you sell it you charge VAT on the sale, this is the same as any other company selling silver. Just means it costs you less to own silver, you don't pay the VAT.

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I just had a thought (don't laugh :D ).

 

Some of the popular small bullion coins are historical, circulated coins like British sovereigns, French 20 francs etc.

 

These are plain bullion coins because they are pretty common.

 

The question is, and I'm hoping some real coin expert (id5 maybe) could answer this, just how common are these coins?

 

How many Victoria soverigns are there in the world and how many Bonaparte 20 Francs, for example?

 

Are most of them still in existence or have many been remolded for other purposes?

 

Mintages are listed here for sovereigns - as it says, a large number paid to the US were melted down into bars.

 

http://www.cruzis-coins.com/sovs/Sovmintage.html#kgvi

 

HTH

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gold-1212.png

 

Is the same pattern emerging as December 1974?.... stockmarket bottoms and climbs for the next 18 months whilst gold peaks and then loses 40% of it's value (in dollar terms) over the next 18 months.

 

Stockmarket has bottomed there is no doubt - double top on the VIX confirms this but I think volatility is still too high for a sustained rally to happen yet so gold could hold-up/go higher until the VIX comes down to something like 30 (as it did in March/April 2003 where stockmarkets rallied from).

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Is the same pattern emerging as December 1974?.... stockmarket bottoms and climbs for the next 18 months whilst gold peaks and then loses 40% of it's value (in dollar terms) over the next 18 months.

 

Stockmarket has bottomed there is no doubt - double top on the VIX confirms this but I think volatility is still too high for a sustained rally to happen yet so gold could hold-up/go higher until the VIX comes down to something like 30 (as it did in March/April 2003 where stockmarkets rallied from).

 

I don't think so Catflap.

Let me guess, you have bought loads of builders & financials in the last 2 months ?

 

edited - I have a better chart if you would like to see approximately where we are right now ? ;)

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I don't think so Catflap.

Let me guess you have bought loads of builders & financials in the last 2 months ? ;)

 

I have - I bought Barclays again today ;) . Stochastics on the USDX are now showing it to be oversold - as the gold is like an inverse USDX then one can say that gold is soon going to be overbought.

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I have - I bought Barclays again today ;) . Stochastics on the USDX are now showing it to be oversold - as the gold is like an inverse USDX then one can say that gold is soon going to be overbought.

 

Catflap,

 

I know you have more knowledge than me about the sm, BUT these are not ordinary times. Please do not focus fully on the stats & charts.

Gut instinct.

 

The only chart you need right now is this one

 

edited - take a close look at that drop. 400 down to about 25 in a couple of years. We have been in this one about 1 year.

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have any of you got gold stored in Switzerland still?

 

Switzerland the next Iceland ?

 

surely not. :unsure: :unsure:

 

er . . . yes . . . thru GM . . .

 

What's the major problem here . . . they can't just nick it . . . can they ? :unsure:

 

 

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er . . . yes . . . thru GM . . .

 

What's the major problem here . . . they can't just nick it . . . can they ? :unsure:

 

there have been numerous warnings about only trusting yourself with your physical stash. I am a firm believer of this camp.

In this current climate, I wouldn't rule anything out Justin Thyme. I am not trying to be melodramatic btw.

 

Government legislation is the only thing that is guaranteeing your gold isn't it ? If that changed, so might the access to your gold.

Also, with all this comex default talk, what if it isn't there when you come to withdraw it ? :unsure: :unsure:

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But when you sell the metal on from the company you have to pay the VAT so I don't see how this will help... Whats the trick I am missing Pixel8r?

 

The company can sell the silver directly to Pixel8r for £1 + £0.15 VAT.

 

For clarity, I’m not recommending it. This may be a jailable offence (fraud), so make sure you DYOR. It will certainly get you struck off the directors register if you are caught.

 

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Catflap,

 

I know you have more knowledge than me about the sm, BUT these are not ordinary times. Please do not focus fully on the stats & charts.

Gut instinct.

 

The only chart you need right now is this one

 

edited - take a close look at that drop. 400 down to about 25 in a couple of years. We have been in this one about 1 year.

 

These are not ordinary times which is why it is wise to hold gold but the danger is focussing on just one asset class - my gut instinct tells me that ATM gold is expensive and many shares are cheap. I don't know how it's going to play but feel there's every chance that equities (commodity ones especially) will perform well next year and I think gold goes down if stocks go up and visa versa. How big and long the cyclical bear rally will be is anyones guess - it could be short and low with another leg down in 2010 if this recession does become a depression.

 

I think the stockmarket crash was a credit bubble and stock bubble at the same time which is why it was so devastating whereas this time we had a stock bubble that peaked in December 1999/January 2000 where valuations were extreme to 2008 where valuations were perhaps around fair value but we had the peak a credit bubble/housing bubble.

 

If you remember, on November 23 I said this:

 

How long does it take from peak to trough?..... certainly not 4 years if your looking at 1929 to 1933.

 

 

September 3 1929 to March 31 1938 was 3132 days or 8 years, 6 months and 29 days

 

Febuary 9 1966 to December 6 1974 was 3223 days or 8 years, 9 months and 28 days

 

and

 

January 14 2000 to 23 November 2008 is 3238 days or 8 years, 10 months and 10 days

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=5129

 

 

The low (so far) was actually on November 20 which makes it a total of 8 years, 10 months and 7 days from the 2000 peak to the 2008 low, only 10 days more than the 1966-1974 peak/trough. Just keep in mind what happened to gold prices (in dollars) from December 1974 to August 1976 when the SM rallied - I don't think the falls were that bad for people who had bought in £'s though, but I would be very careful about buying at todays prices with the SM already rising.

 

Looking again at the 1970's where the bottom in the SM was December 6 1974 and the top in gold prices was December 30 1974 one should be aware that there was only a small overlap where stockmarkets and gold rose together and it lasted 24 days. If November 20 is the bottom of the SM then we are at 22 days already but who knows, there could be another shock and another test of the SM low.

 

What I would say is that volatility is still very very high which isn't good for SM investors wanting to come back in - it was 54.28 for Friday so maybe gold will keep performing whilst this reading stays high. Maybe we will get a triple top in the VIX as this period is unlike any other in our lifetime.

 

http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2008/12/dou...ops-in-vix.html

 

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I have - I bought Barclays again today ;) . Stochastics on the USDX are now showing it to be oversold - as the gold is like an inverse USDX then one can say that gold is soon going to be overbought.

 

http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/fortun....fortune/3.html

In terms of the stock market, the price/earnings ratio is no longer high. I use a P/E ratio in which the price is divided by ten-year average earnings. It's a really conservative way of looking at it. That P/E ratio got up to 44 in the year 2000, which was a record high. Recently it was down to less than 13, which is below the average of around 15. But after the stock market crash of 1929, the price/earnings ratio got down to about six, which is less than half of where it is now. So that's the worry. Some people who are so inclined might go more into the market here because there's a real chance it will go up a lot. But that's very risky. It could easily fall by half again.
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I did a whole thread based on Shiller's work:

 

Stock Market Predictions

Analysis of the S&P500 & Gold from 1880 to 2008

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=4799

 

 

I thought the charts were pretty clear.

 

But we need a mix of bulls and bears, otherwise the market would only move in one direction ;):lol::D

 

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The company can sell the silver directly to Pixel8r for £1 + £0.15 VAT.

 

For clarity, I’m not recommending it. This may be a jailable offence (fraud), so make sure you DYOR. It will certainly get you struck off the directors register if you are caught.

 

If a director of a company was to do this then it would be tax evasion.

 

It is the same as if your company brought 10 x £100 ‘face value’ Britannia coins for £500 x 10 = £5,000 and paid a director or employee the ‘face value’ as remuneration i.e. £500. The actual market value of the benefit is taken for the calculation not the’ face value’ or a suggest value.

 

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I just had a thought (don't laugh :D ).

...

Are most of them still in existence or have many been remolded for other purposes?

 

 

 

As the link from bonobo points out there are have been quite a few minted. For full sovereigns the figure is approximately 1,100,000,000 coins or about 8,000 tonnes of gold since 1817, these figures do not include half or double sovereigns

 

How many are still in existence is hard to calculate but most probably less than people think. One of the reasons that Middle Eastern and Indian jewellery is 22ct is because it was originally made from the sovereigns used in the British Empire that were melted down especially after the country had left the Empire. If I had to make a guess then I would say less than 40% with the bulk of those coins being made from after WWI.

 

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Here you go, looks quite easy to understand to me. To infinity and beyond :lol:

...

And this is a logarithmic chart already!

 

Still, I would hope that Sterling is due a short squeeze/dead cat bounce soon. Otherwise, we'll be dropping with no stopping.

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This is how much money you make (1% a week constantly over a period of 24 years!*) if you buy when the COMEX gold rapists come in (London PM), and sell when the good, honest guys from the East buy their physical (London AM). Transactions costs will kill your strategy, of course. :) But still!

 

BTW, if you did it the other way round (sell PM, buy AM) you would lose 0.67% a week.

 

*EDIT: That is 24,720,000%, by the way! Tell me there's no Cartel! :lol: :lol:

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1985/Gold_USD_PMAM.png

Gold_USD_PMAM.png

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