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Bubble Pricker

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Everything posted by Bubble Pricker

  1. I went to the site today. Photos below. I am also gong to upload a walk-around video to YouTube. Impressions: The area is currently not that great. Mostly council housing and New Festival Quarter is surrounded by council estates. Youths loitering in the streets and in Bartlet Park. The eastern aspect of the development is very close to the street. The street is not a main thoroughfare but reasonably busy (a car every 10 seconds or so on a Sunday afternoon - probably much busier during weekdays). Planes taking off from London City directly overhead. The balconies will suffer use degradation from this, and it may be difficult to leave the windows open for extended periods. This is the problem generally with flats: they do not tend to have opposite aspects. With a house, you usually have a quiet side at the back at least. From the computer generated imagery of Bellway Homes, it seems possible that the development might significantly improve the overall area, especially make the spaces appear more open. At the moment everything looks narrow and constraint with the fence around the building site, but once this is gone, it seems the development would be quite open and inviting. The pricing of the flats seems ok and reasonable. Terraced houses directly opposite the site have sold for between £300,000-£350,000. See http://www.nethousep...=E14&incode=6EP Pictures taken today:
  2. I have had some good humoured private banter with Dr. Bubb about our opposing views on where the stock market is headed. So that we all have actual facts, I will post all my index trading activity here, with actual profits and losses taken, so that there is no more argument over who was right and who is wrong and who makes money in the longer term. I will only post trades here, not nebulous statements such as "we may get a bounce", "I have gone long", "later in the year the market will be lower" etc. etc. So the numbers can speak for themselves. To log my trades, I am using a fictional account that will have up to 10 NASDAQ-100 futures contracts open at any one time. I will record points gained/lost on the index. To make it realistic, I will subtract 2 big points per trade (not per contract) from the gain/loss when a trade is closed, to account for slippage and commissions. This is a very generous allowance and far exceeds real life commision and slippage. When closing positions partially, I will calculate the realised profit from the first opened trade (FIFO) and adjust the average cost of the remaining contracts accordingly. So let's catch up on where I am on current trades: Prior to 07 June 2010: no position 07 June 2010: Bought 2 June10 at 1802.00 - Open exposure: long 2 at average 1802.00 10 June 2010: Bought 2 June10 at 1826.50 - Open exposure: long 4 at average 1814.25 14 June 2010: Sold 3 June10 at 1847.75 to roll - Realised Profit 110.75 points (2 points deducted for cost) 14 June 2010: Bought 3 Sep10 at 1846.50 to roll 15 June 2010: Sold 1 June10 at 1882.50 - Realised Profit: 54.00 points (2 points deducted for cost) 15 June 2010: Open exposure: long 3 Sep10 at average 1846.50 17 June 2010: Bought 1 Sep10 at 1905 - Open exposure: long 4 at average 1861.125 Running total realised profit/loss: +164.75 points I am not posting running unrealised loss/profit, as I do not want to update this post every day. You can work out the running unrealised loss/profit by taking the last posted Open Exposure and work it against the current level of the NASDAQ-100 The above list will be updated whenever I post new trading activity.
  3. Bubble Pricker

    Bubble Pricker's Trading diary

    Update: I have slightly amended the method of calculating realised profits/losses. Rather than using FIFO, I will calculate the realised profit/loss from the last average price. The average price for any remaining open positions will then just be carried forward rather than adjusted. This is less complicated and makes the trading sequence easier to read. It does not change the end result. 07 June 2010: Bought 2 June10 at 1802.00 - Open exposure: long 2 at average 1802.00 10 June 2010: Bought 2 June10 at 1826.50 - Open exposure: long 4 at average 1814.25 14 June 2010: Sold 3 June10 at 1847.75 to roll - Realised Profit 98.5 points (2 points deducted for cost) 14 June 2010: Bought 3 Sep10 at 1846.50 to roll 15 June 2010: Sold 1 June10 at 1882.50 - Realised Profit: 66.25 points (2 points deducted for cost) 15 June 2010: Running total realised profit/loss: +164.75 points 15 June 2010: Open exposure: long 3 Sep10 at average 1846.50 17 June 2010: Bought 1 Sep10 at 1905.00 - Open exposure: long 4 at average 1861.125 24 June 2010: Bought 1 Sep10 at 1853.00 - Open exposure: long 5 at average 1859.50 24 June 2010: Sold 3 Sep10 at 1846.50 - Realised Loss: -41 points (2 points deducted for costs) 24 June 2010: Running total realised profit/loss: +123.75 points 24 June 2010: Open exposure: long 2 Sep10 at average 1859.50 29 June 2010: Sold 2 Sep10 at 1777.00 - Realised Loss: -167 points (2 points deducted for costs) 29 June 2010: Running total realised profit/loss: -43.25 points 29 June 2010: Open exposure: nil 06 July 2010: Sold 1 Sep10 at 1734.25 - Open exposure: short 1 at average 1734.25 07 July 2010: Sold 2 Sep10 at 1731.50 - Open exposure: short 3 at average 1732.42 Running total realised profit/loss: -43.25 points I got caught out on 29th June with 2 remaining long positions when the market went into a swift downturn. The remaining 2 long positions were stopped to limit losses. Unfortunately this has resulted in giving away all previous profits in June from the upswing, and actually moving into overall realised loss territory. This happenes to traders and one needs to put these things behind and move on. I am now short with three contracts from an average of 1732.416666666.
  4. Bubble Pricker

    Bubble Pricker's Trading diary

    You have not made a profit each time. You were bearish throughout February and March and you publicly declared that you had bought puts. What happened to those? Did you sell them at a loss? Did they expire worthless? Why don't you post all your trades, losers and winners, like I do, and then we can see.
  5. Bubble Pricker

    Bubble Pricker's Trading diary

    23 June 2010: Bought 1 Sep10 at 1853 - Open exposure: long 5 at average 1859.5 Running total realised profit/loss: +164.75 points
  6. Bubble Pricker

    Bubble Pricker's Trading diary

    Have you taken into account all the other times since January 2010 when you bought puts and the market just kept going up? It's easy to make a single profit and boast about it. All I can see from your trading blog is that you almost constantly announce that a "turn" is around the corner, and most of the tome it does not come and the market just continues its previous direction.
  7. Bubble Pricker

    Bubble Pricker's Trading diary

    I'm trading real money, but not necessarily in the size of the fictional portfolio here.
  8. Bubble Pricker

    Bubble Pricker's Trading diary

    This is the sort of wholly statement you will never hear from me. In this thread you will see only trades and a rising level of total cumulative p/l. I continue net long with 4 open contracts in my fictional portfolio of up to 10 contracts on the NASDAQ-100. The reason is simple: the upwards trend remains intact. I do not know if it will continue or be broken. If it is broken, I will close the longs, if not not they will continue.
  9. Bubble Pricker

    Bubble Pricker's Trading diary

    Yes thanks. As my OP states, this blog is about trades in the NASDAQ-100, so not quite sure how the SPX chart is relevant. And if you look at the current open exposure, I still have unreliased profits of about 40 points times 4 = 160 points (as of yesterday's close).
  10. Bubble Pricker

    Bubble Pricker's Trading diary

    Just to be clear, "no position before June 9" means no positions immediately before June 9. Of course I had positions before June 9 and I could brag about how many points I made on the NASDAQ-100 between January 2010 and April 2010 (unlike those trying to short the market), but that is not the point of this blog, which will look at trades from hereon.
  11. ((MERGED with Yogi's thread on Canadian Royalty Trusts)) ======= Has anyone read the report on Canadian Energy Trusts in Peter Schiff's article on Financialsense? https://www.europac.net/report/download_energy_again.asp Any opinions on here about these?
  12. Whilst all eyes have been on the oil price for the near month, the price of the furthest contract out (Dec 2012) has also been falling, much to my amazement. It is one thing for near month oil prices to fluctuate, in line with short term supply and demand, inventories and the gepolitical tides. But why on earth does the market believe oil will be hardly more expensive in Dec 2012 than it is now? Surely, believers in peak oil and oil at $200 within the next 5 years must see this as the perfect trading opportunity. The Dec 2012 contract traded at around $62 today. I am very tempted to buy and let simmer for 6 years. Any views?
  13. Bubble Pricker

    Trading Peak Oil - The trade of a lifetime?

    I wouldn't bother with options. They are alos not very liquid. Anyway, Dec 2012 oil now at $130. I would like to pat myself on the back and say this thread was the call of the decade. Up $70 since my call, which is $70,000 on one contract.
  14. There has been some debate elsewhere here about the contango in oil futures. I am not going to repeat all this here now, but I may post the links and some more explanation later. Basically, there is, and has been for a couple of years now, a fairly steep short term contango on oil futures. This is the reason why oil ETFs like OILB have performed so poorly since their inception one to two years ago, even though the oil price has gone up. I estimate that OILB loses about 10% every year in the contango (the loss in the contango alone is actually more, but OILB makes some if this up by earning interest on its collateral cash). The current one month contango for the front month at the time of posting this thread is about $1.50. This means that the second nearest month (May 2007) currently trades $1.50 above the nearest month (April 2007). Assuming that the price of oil does not change substantially, one should therefore expect to earn $1.50 every month from the contango alone by continuously rolling a short position. That equates to $18 a year, assuming the contango remains the same. In other words, all things remaining equal, the oil price has to rise by more then $18 per year for this rolling trade not to be profitable. Now, one obvious risk in all this is that the oil price keeps rising and rising, thus erasing any gains from the contango and producing losses over time. And long term, there is a good chance that oil price will indeed carry on rising. Now, as many readers on this board know, I also hold a long position a long dated crude future contract (Dec 2012). When I bought this contract, the contango compared to the front month was only about $2.50! So in other words, I hold an opposite contract that will protect me against any significant rise in the oil price, and I paid only $2.50 contango for a 6-year contract, whereas I will be making $1.50 in contango every month on the rolling short contract. As a bonus, this rolling short trade also protects my long position in the Dec 2012 against any significant fall in the oil price. The other thing I should mention is that I will only short the mini-contract ($5/cent), whereas my 2012 contract is a $10 contract, so I will still gain from a long term rise in oil prices, which I expect. I will keep a log of this rolling trade below. Date Buy Price Sell Price Spread Profit/Loss Comm. P/L Total 08 Mar 2007 - - May 07 $62.50 - - -$16 -$16.00 19 Apr 2007 May 07 $62.80 Jun 07 $64.10 $1.30 -$150.00 -$32 -$198.00 07 May 2007 Jun 07 $61.225 Jul 07 $63.25 $2.025 $1437.50 -$32 $1207.50 08 June 2007 Jul 07 $66.25 Aug 07 $67.80 $1.55 -$1500.00 -$32 -$324.50 I am also starting a second trading strategy in addition to the rolling short above. This one is a pure spread based strategy. The idea is to buy a one-month spread about four months out at a spread as narrowly as possible, then let the earlier month of the spread come close in time and buy back the spread with hopefully a profit as the spread has widened. For example, For example, in April 2007, sell Aug 2007 and buy Sep 2007. Current spread about 65c. If this widens to $2.00-2.50 come mid-July, when the Aug contract expires, one makes $1.35 to $1.8. I will be trading this strategy with the physical contract, as the e-minis are not liquid enough in the further out months. Here is the table of trades for this strategy: Date Buy Price Sell Price Spread Profit/Loss Comm. P/L Total 07 May 2007 Nov 07 $66.98 Oct 07 $66.34 $0.64 - -$32 -$32.00 22 Jun 2007 Oct 07 $69.55 Sep 07 $69.20 $0.35 - -$32 -$32.00
  15. Bubble Pricker

    Wind Turbine investment

    Have a look at the Ventus VCTs for Wind Farm investment. However, the main benefit is the tax credit upon subscription, so buying in the market is not advisable unless you get a big discount to NAV.
  16. SILVER FIELDS ANNOUNCES PRIVATE PLACEMENT Silver Fields Resources Inc. is offering a non-brokered private placement for securities in the amount of $690,000. The issue will consist of the following: Non-flow-through units Up to three million non-flow-through units at 10 cents per unit. Each unit consists of one non-flow-through common share in the capital of the company and one share purchase warrant. Each warrant will entitle the holder to buy one additional common share of the company for a period of 24 months from the date of the closing of the private placement at an exercise price of 15 cents for the first 12-month period and 20 cents for the second 12-month period Flow-through units Up to three million flow-through units at 13 cents per unit. Each unit consists of one flow-through common share in the capital of the company and one non-flow-through common share purchase warrant. Each warrant will entitle the holder to buy one additional common share of the company for a period of 24 months from the date of the closing of the private placement at an exercise price of 18 cents for the first 12-month period and 23 cents for the second 12-month period. The gross proceeds of the offering will be used in part for general working capital and the flow-through portion of the private placement will be used for qualified Canadian exploration expenditures.
  17. Why is there a special warrant that you need to exercise to get the units?
  18. Bubble Pricker

    Trading Peak Oil - The trade of a lifetime?

    I am not even bothering to verify or falsify the facts in this "article". The way it is written clearly points to a newsletter selling scam. I could not resist researching anyway. Of course, it is an old story, reheated: http://www.energybulletin.net/11707.html
  19. One month is nothing, and you cannot even be sure your good month was down to EW. I had an excellen month too in August without EW. The litmus test is whether one can consistently make money using a particular method. I have yet to meet any trader who does that with EW. Of course, many may claim so, because EW is so open to interpretation, as the above posts show, that restrospectively, any development can be claimed to have been "forecast" by EW. Fooled by randomness.
  20. The gooble-di-gook in the above posts illustrates in a perfect way that Elliot Wave theory is nothing but tea leaf reading.
  21. Don't think so. I think yesterday was a short term low.
  22. I read that as we will get equivalent warrants in Sino Gold.
  23. http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070813/pdf/313y57w350k0wn.pdf Question: What's going to happen to the warrants? Do we get shares for those or would it be advisable to exercise the warrants now?
  24. I think we may see 1530-1550 S&P again before any larger downturn.
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