Bubble Pricker
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GEI's logo
Bubble Pricker replied to drbubb's topic in About GlobalEdgeInvestors & GreenEnergyInvestors
Baron, here's my 2p: Clearly visible colour artifacts in both "planets" - nasty The logo looks far too much like outer space - get rid of one planet, add some earth contours on the planet beneath Global Ede Investors and change the planet under Green Energy Investors to a sun. Maybe you can even morph the background colour into green towards the right hand side. I would try to make to make the whole "incorporating Green Energy Investors" part smaller. It is too prominent I also need a logo designed for Berlin Property Investments. Are you interested. You will be paid for your work product. But I need professional vector graphics, not the low-res artifacty stuff on here. -
Wormholes & Warp Drives... etc.
Bubble Pricker replied to drbubb's topic in Green Energy's Sustainable Living
This asking for investment on the website has all sorts of legal connotations. The way it stands, it certainly breaks the law in almost every country in the civilised world. I once again would recommend you to ask for donations to fund your research, rather than "investment". -
There is no riskm from the - totally hypothetical - scenario described in the article as a return to long-term fixed contracts. It does not matter what happens in the future to future contract or whether they will be traded any more or not. Existing contracts are valid and binding, and the NYMEX exchnage is liable for its performance. Only if NYMEX goes out of business might the performance of the contract be in question.
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The Oil and Energy Price Thread
Bubble Pricker replied to HollandPark's topic in Energy: Oil, Coal, Uranium etc.
my natgas position is my best portfolio performer by a large margin, making up for all the losses elsewhere. The May 07 contract is trading at $7.6. My May 2011 still has backwardation, but I expect that to converge to the near month price as we get closer to the date. -
The Oil and Energy Price Thread
Bubble Pricker replied to HollandPark's topic in Energy: Oil, Coal, Uranium etc.
Your first big loser today? Hope you are working stops. -
The Oil and Energy Price Thread
Bubble Pricker replied to HollandPark's topic in Energy: Oil, Coal, Uranium etc.
Just be careful before you quit your job, because one can easily have a winning streak, and it seems like you have sussed it all out, and then you start having a losing streak. Also, what I have heard from many traders is that if you ahve a certain style of trading, it typically works for a while, and then it stops working and you start making losses. I think you need a consistent sustainable record over several years of making consistent profits from spread betting, before you should consider quitting your day job. -
The 15% Candian withholding tax applies to all non-Candian residents, so you should assume all income is paid less that 15% tax. If you do not hold within a special tax wrapper in Ireland, the income will be subject to normal Irish income tax, if you are a resident of Ireland. You MAY be able to deduct the 15% already paid in Candian tax from your Irish tax bill. However, this will depend on the precise provisions in the Irish/Canadian double taxation Treaty, if such a treaty exists.
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eventually, yes, but this is a long way away. Major oil companies will continue to make increasing profits as the oil price goes up, although their profit growth will be limited by the rising cost of extraction. So a pure bet on oil prices will probably yield more. But then again, it is less risky to just buy oil shares like BP, receive the dividends every year.
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The Oil and Energy Price Thread
Bubble Pricker replied to HollandPark's topic in Energy: Oil, Coal, Uranium etc.
I hold True Energy also. I paid slightly more at $7. I think this is an incredible bargain. Rogers Says Oil Will Rise to $100 After `Correction' -
The Oil and Energy Price Thread
Bubble Pricker replied to HollandPark's topic in Energy: Oil, Coal, Uranium etc.
Not nessecarily. OPEX are not very good at actually implementing production cuts. They talk a lot about them, but when it actually comes to cutting production, they tend to take a "not in my back yard" attitude, i.e. everybody wants the others to make the cuts. -
Close last Friday was $60.94 on the Dec 2012 crude. I still believe this is a good opportunity. Of course, if there is another commodity sell-off, as Marc Faber predicts, the price could drop another $10 or so, who knows. I think buying this contract has tremendous risk-reward: Oil cannot drop to zero, but let's assume worst case scenario it drops back to $12 where it once was (however unlikely that may be) and stays there until 2012. So at the current price of say $61, your maximum, extreme worst case scenario, loss on this trade is $49,000. A more realistic price that oild could drop back to by 2012 is $30. So your maximum loss is about $30,000. I believe dear Dr. you have risked more than that on far more speculative positions. On the other extreme, if the Saudi Oil fields have a dramatic production drop over the next five years (because they have been overstating their reserves all along), all-out war breaks out in the Middle East, South America gets taken over by communist governments, and Russia descends into a mob-ruled society, then the oil price could go anywhere. More realistically, an oil price of $150 by 2012 does not seem that unrealistic, which would be a $89,000 profit.
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The Oil and Energy Price Thread
Bubble Pricker replied to HollandPark's topic in Energy: Oil, Coal, Uranium etc.
Crude now headed for $50. I have ridden along part of this slide with small shorts, but got out too early. In my view, this is fundamentally totally unjustfied. The trigger seems to have been inventory figures, not actually for crude oil, but for distillate products such as heating oil. What's happening now in my view is hedge funds bailing out. When this is over, it will be a great opportunity to get into oil / oil shares. -
They will, but I am not worried, because the short term price of oil is ultimately not relevant for this trade. What matters is whether oil will be above $62.40 in 2012. It is interesting how the longer dated futures react in different markets: 1. Natural Gas: The long dated futures show slight backwardation, meaning it is cheaper to buy a long dated future than a short dated one. When the short term futures move, the long term futures hardly move at all. This seems naturally right, because why should short-term fluctuations in stocks and demand have any bearing on prices 5-6 years down the line? 2. Oil. The long dated futures show slight contango. The six year out contract typically trades about $4 above the near month. This ist still way below the real cost of carry and therefore effectively amounts to a real backwardation. Interestingly, the long dated futures do move more with the short term price of oil. For example, when I bought the Dec 2012 contract, it had just fallen nearly $3 as a result of the short term oil price falls. This does not really make sense. The recent short term falls are based on the warm weather in the US. Why whould the weather this month have anything to do whatsoever with the oil price in 2012? But the markets seem irrational here, so this is a buying opportunity. 3. Gold. None of the backwardation observed in oil or gas is present in gold futures. Long dated gold futures show a natural contango, increasing with the length of term of the contract, which is in line with the cost of carry. 2012 gold costs over $800.
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I have received my first monthly distributions from the trusts I bought in November. There is a 15% Canadian withholding tax applied to the distributions. I have no further tax to pay in the UK, as I hold in a SIPP. I am bidding to buy PrimeWest (PWI) today. Later: I bought Primewest and Fording Coal today.