bobbyald141

I will almost certainly be in the 20-25%. That is because the ONLY thing that will convince me is EVIDENCE. It don't matter if you are honest or work hard to present your case. It don't matter if the government or anyone else makes a statement if it is lacking solid evidence. It don't matter if politicians, generals, scientists or that really nive bloke down the pub believes something - I won't believe it until I see hard evidence. I don't care how open your mind is or how much you really, really believe it - I want evidence. Evidence is NOT opinion. Evidence is NOT stories from nice people. Evidence is NOT filling in the gaps with whatever you want. Evidence is NOT guesswork. So what is the evidence? Have you got just one piece of solid evidence? I've read much and watched many videos and as yet I see no evidence - NONE! EVIDENCE EVIDENCE EVIDENCE

This is all very, very sad. I can't believe you and other are still banging on about aliens. There is just one barrier to disclosure - there are NO aliens on earth. We know this because there has been NO evidence produced. I know you THINK you have evidence but that's just because you and all those other deluded crackpots do not understand what evidence is. This theme of not understanding what consistutes evidence is common on GEI and explains it's lack of success and it's failure to grasp some very basic concepts. I've watched many of these UFO video clips and it's just the same nonsense everytime. Dolan, Willock etc should be in jail or at the very least an institution for the mentally unstable.

IF there was a cycle to earthquakes what would it prove? Certainly not that some amazing "Earth Changes" are upon us. Surely it would just be a normal cycle?

It's great to see that this debate is still going strong however I feel that JD has an unfair advantage - an understanding of statistical analysis. I've just finished listening to the audio book version of this book and found it very interesting so I'm recommending it: The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives It explores how random events shape the world and how human intuition tries to fight it. Our brains naturally want to see patterns and order where none exist and consequently we draw many incorrect conclusions. This would be of particular benefit to DR Bubb but I think you may also find it interesting JD.

I started reading this thread not realising that it began in 2008 and it highlights just how useless most financial commentators are. The first post has two charts. The first is of GLD when gold was around $800 and is accompanied by the following comment: Today's announcement is on GOLD. Following last week's massive, $130 collapse, Gold has given us EXACTLY the move required to confirm the bull market is OVER! The other chart shows a “likely” projection of the SPY and a new low in the summer of 2009. With hopeless forecasting like this why should anyone listen to NEOwave? We see many forecasts on GEI and elsewhere but never go back to all those busy charts with meaningless coloured lines all over them but if we did I know exactly what they would show – the whole charade is meaningless.

I have looked at the videos / links and can confirm that they are total nonsense.

Gold getting smashed again. Currently down 80.

Agreed. Statistically speaking there is absolutely nothing significantly different about earthquake activity this year. Any attempt to make a case for Earth Changes from this data therefore fails completely. Statistically speaking deaths would also be irrelevant to this arguement.

Well, I think we agree that whatever TPTB do it will be in their own perceived best interest and sod everyone else - has it ever been any different? The current system is unsustainable so we now only need to wait & see what they do. Good luck to you JD I hope whichever way you play it you come out the other end relatively unscathed. This has been an enjoyable chat.

They are printing and will continue to do so for as long as they can but at some point it ends. There are untold trillions of debt in the world and the holders of this debt are currently happy to accept a small loss from inflation verses what could potentially be a huge loss in a deflationary collapse. As you say it's finely balanced and the printing presses continue to rumble but at some point further printing leads to higher rates and then it's decision time - either they stop printing and deflate or print faster and face rapidly accelerating inflation. Both will be very destructive and ultimately destroy a huge percentage of the imaginary claims to wealth that exist within many asset classes and likely destroy a significant percentage of good productive capacity. Personally I can't see them printing. Hyperinflation would play out over a much shorter time span resulting in a loss of control by the PTB. Who knows where this leads, civil unrest, war? During a deflation the public are more controllable, politians can limp along, banks can be bailed, printing hidden, excuses made, scape goats found etc. It'll still be tough but the risks to the rich and powerful are reduced and ultimately that's what will decide it. Late here so I'm off to bed. Follow the footie? My team Charlton just blew a 2-0 lead.

Are we still on the weird thread? I saw a flash then everything turned back to serious finance. Where have all the lizards gone?

I generally stay out of the market although I have a few positions, gold etc., that I've held for a while now. If I could see anything short or Medium term that makes any sense I'd probably have a go but is all I see is randomness. The problem of course is even if you have a system that appears to work you can never be sure that it does - it may all just be luck. Some people say that every stock they hold has been a winner and that's highly unlikely to be random but in a bull market it can be. Good luck to you though if your making money. I'm generally very bearish about housing markets and stockmarkets. I see massive deflation ahead and I'm happy to sit in mainly cash for the present. I also STR'd in 2007 and emmigrated to Australia, the over valued housing and stockmarket was a big part of my decision but I also wanted my kids to have options. It's worked out well so far - more luck than judgement I admit. I was told by almost everyone that if I sold up and left London I'd be priced out of the market forever but could now easily buy my old house back twice over. The Australian housing market is in a huge bubble so I still rent. Currently getting 6%+ on my cash but the A$ can be very volitile and has traded in a wide range since I came over. Another credit crunch and the A$ will surely be hit hard again. Hope it works out for you. If the QE's manage to hold back deflation I'd be happy but I just can't see it working forever. Eventually defaults will overwhelm QE and down we go. My "do little" approach has been good but I'm increasingly getting the feeling that I will have to make a decision soon but not sure yet which way to jump. As much as I hate to say it, gold and high quality US Gov bonds are favourite.

There is certainly lots going on in the markets, thousands of players with their own beliefs and systems and it becomes very difficult to separate a real effect/trend/turning point from random market noise. For every play someone has a counter-play. TPTB may sometimes do as you say but then another time they may push through resistance/support to force the hand of shorts/longs and profit that way - who knows? The bottom line is I believe that in the short to medium term the markets are far too close to random for the average player to make it worhtwhile.

TA of course doesn't work. Even if there was once something in it, it would very quickly become so saturated with players that margins would tend to zero. JD, I agree with the "self fulfilling" effect under many circumstances, moon watching etc., but in the case of TA I believe that a saturation of players forces many to act on the strategy earlier and earlier and in the process destroy the effect they were hoping to profit from.

I take that reply to mean that you believe that there is an alternative to the scientific method and that that alternative is a combination of intuition, experience, religion etc. Well here's the really great thing, it's very easy to watch your process in action. There is no need for any tyrannical scientist to be present, you can do it yourself with a few friends and I guarantee you that if it's enlightenment your after you will just love the results. Here's what you need to do: Grab a pack of shuffled cards and get your friends to call on their intuition, gods, psychic powers etc. and name to top face down card. Go through the whole pack and record the results. The more times you do this the better and if you can get some really good psychics it'll work much better. There is no trick. You don't have to use playing cards - you could toss a coin for example. You are personally in control through the whole process and any location/time is fine. The results will be truely astonishing for you so please give it a go.

DR Bubb, Can I ask whether you believe there is any method, other than the scientific method, for assessing the world around us? If so, what is that method?

This is a good example of the way in which some valid scientific facts are intermingled with factual errors in order to present a hypothesis that sounds reasonable to the uneducated.

Actually DrBubb you're wrong - I did watch most of it but to be honest I don't know why I bothered - It was total nonsense. The reason I didn't reply was because this is your forum and your topic and if you want to push this rubbish it's your choice. Out of respect I've made the decision to make just one short comment on each such thread to express my view and no more (although I feel compelled to reply to your comment in this case). If you would like me to rip this topic to pieces with real evidence from real scientist I'd be happy to do so but I expect I'd only get another short ban. It would appear to me that many other people on this forum have decided to just ignore these type of topics completely and maybe I should do the same but I'm strangely drawn to such topics, not because I have any interest in them per se, but because I find it incomprehensible that any intelligent, logical, sane person could take them seriously and that’s interesting.

I never cease to be amazed by the extent of human gullibility.

So Mr Bubb, what was your PropertyTribe forecast? -9% for 2011? I might wander over and see what they're making of it. I expect they don't care as they all buy property 40% BMV - ha ha. Some on HPC are also saying that Apr-10 = 168,593 and Apr-11 = 160,395 = -4.86% YoY. It's a reasonable start I supose

In the years building up to the financial crisis people spent more than they earned i.e. net borrowing increased every year. For us to get back to "normal" levels of spending people will therefore need to revert to spending more than they earn and banks will need to revert to previous levels of lending. (I can't see this happening, in fact I think both borrowing and spending will continue to fall in the years ahead). However, if you are correct and we do start running up ever more debt when do you think it will end? or do you just see credit expansion to infinity?

The buying of debt with fiat does not increase the money supply, it just replaces credit with fiat plus the amounts are relatively small compared to the amount of debt out there. Sure this is all delaying tactics but there is now nothing that can be done to save the system. Even at current rates of swapping debt for fiat the dollar will remain the reserve currency for a long time but as the bond market will soon signal “no more printing” the dollar in my opinion will strength considerably from here as assets fall. There is no way hyperinflation is even remotely possible. This is wrong in so many ways that it’s hard to know where to start. If they stopped swapping debt for fiat then some debt would default – this is inevitable anyway. It will certainly not destroy the financial infrastructure and would make cash and the debt that survives worth much more. If the government gets it right, implements financial restraint and allows some strategic defaults then the dollars continued roll as the world reserve currency is assured. I just cannot understand all this nonsense about hyperinflation. Your debt is an asset of the rich & powerful- why do you think they will destroy this relationship? Back to the HPC (the sublect of this thread) I think it's clear that whichever of the abve is correct, the debt bubble has peaked and this spells big trouble for the property market. They may be able to delay a little more but the big slide is coming.

I'm in cash and not at all concerned with the bounce in the markets as it's all very risky particularly property and commodities. Once deflation gets a grip on the economy, the government will have run out of options and cash will be the best investment. At that point, people will be screaming to get off the property ladder as they won't be able to afford their repayments, but won't be able to sell as the property market will be in free fall. It will be a blood bath. 40-70% drop in 3 years. You will then be sitting pretty with bucket loads of cash and you willl be able to pick up a property at bargain basement values with probably minimum mortgage. The FED and BOE will NOT print to infinity and hyper-inflation is impossible for countries with a sophisticated bond market but even if they did bricks and mortar will NOT protect your wealth as history has shown. At some point rates will have to rise as the bond market signals no more printing then they will fall again. Hold on in there, but for heavens sake, do NOT invest too much in gold and remember to short commodites - cash is king. You have been bold enough to sell a real asset, albeit an over valued one, but to make this work you have keep your cash. Silver or gold may be ok but commodities won't be, you will just get slaughtered by deflation. I think in time, you'll be sitting pretty, but I dare say you will have a few years of snide remarks from friends who are seeing the value of their houses edge up. Once IR's go north, the shoe will firmly be on the other foot. Good luck.

It will. I wonder just how far they will let their losses run until they bail? It'll be interesting to follow but they have been warned. Based on the beliefs that they hold e.g. It only takes commitment and everything will work out fine in the long run, I expect that they will be the last out and possibly signal the time to buy.

A strange conclusion to reach - I would have said that there is simply too much money lent into overvalued housing for a collapse not to occur. I agree that base rates will be low for years but why will that make any difference? - just look at Japan and the US. Rates fall along with everything else in a deflation, including rents. (I do however think we will get a blip in rates as the bond market signals no more QE).