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Compounded

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Posts posted by Compounded


  1. My brother-in-law bought a few years ago right when the kiwi was cratering. In NZD, the price was 1800 [near 2000 by the time he paid the premium for bullion]. The price of gold then cratered as the Kiwi strengthened. He has only now got back to his original buying position.... not sure if I'm back in his good books quite yet. :lol:

     

    I told my brother when gold was £360 - he did not take notice, later I told my dad he thought I was being reckless and he has ever since been politely asking me about my plan to exit and that's in spite of the fact his shares have gone nowhere and gold has more than doubled.

     

    I avoid discussion on gold or investing now, the reasons for holding gold now are too complex to get over easily to someone who is not interested in the first place.


  2. Neither has POG done a lot in NZ and Aussie dollars over the past couple of years due to these currencies strengthening in parallel with gold [the big move up was a few years back]. The massive explosive gains in gold, as priced in those currencies, will be made when the "risk off" de-leveraging trade re-emerges once again, and they crater relative to the dollar and gold.

     

    Price in NZD is around 1850 with NZD at 0.87 against the dollar [and climbing towards parity]. With NZD at say back down to 0.50, the NZD price of gold could explode upwards over-night to north of $3000. Shame I got no NZD..... I hear Aliveandkicking has though.... now's your chance AAK! :D

     

    The progress in GBP has been much steadier than in USD, NZD or AUD, I haven't been tested by anything like a 25% fall yet.


  3. A Day's Wage for a Silver Dime:

    Fact or Fiction?

     

    David Zurbuchen

     

    http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/zurbuchen120405.html

     

    Silver (pre 1920) 3d coin (3/240 of a pound) now worth more than 1£

     

    2p worth more than 4p as scrap; the old penny more than a shilling (5p)

     

     

    The circulating currency is a part of the inflation con

     

    The smallest coin in Victorian times was the farthing - worth approx 8p in today's currency.


  4. Anecdotal

     

    The old lady who owned my parents house had an acre of apple trees they yielded £200 a year in the 2nd WW from them to convert a car cost £80 then and a house £500 by my reckoning that's approx £40k pa in today's money.

     

    My dad felt that was right as he says food was very expensive in the war in spite of the rationing.

     

    If you have a garden forget the wisteria and cedar and plant some food producing trees is so simple now and it will make a real difference if an economic collapse does come.


  5. And do you have any thoughts as to how far the present pullback will go ?

     

    He don't post much but I found this old one.

     

    CG March 2008 HPC gold thread

     

    After the collapse of the international monetary and banking system,

    with the world back on the gold standard,

    your savings, pension, investments, house gone,

    no credit available, rotting in poverty,

    no social security, health care or government benefits,

    working like a serf to earn your daily bread,

    what will you think when you read my warnings,

    how you dismissed me, ignored me, ridiculed me?

     

    Do the smart thing.

    Protect yourselves NOW.


  6. I merged the old gold threads together so they don't always get lost. I am not sure whether I found all of them, but quite a few I think.

     

    Let's hope this thread won't cause a black hole with so much gold in one place! :lol:

     

     

    Good move,

     

    Incidentally the old HPC gold thread now has less than half the number of posts at 11,167, but slightly more views at 1,597,837

     

    There is more interest now.


  7. Unfortunately, we seem to have lost RB as a reliable contra indicator.

     

    Realistbear: I find it increasingly difficult to try to predict anything.

     

    http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...howtopic=154090

     

     

    Glad that RB finally realises that he does not understand anything but peeved that we have lost a top rated 'top caller' :lol:

     

    Be gentle he understands property but not gold because gold is an outlier an oddity, it is not an investment, it is free market money; the implications are not easily understood.


  8. Daily Mail 3 November

     

    Millions caught in cheap home loans trap: Financial experts' warning over families under threat from interest rate rises

     

    By Ruth Sunderland

    Last updated at 1:12 AM on 3rd November 2010

     

    * Comments (32)

    * Add to My Stories

     

    Up to three million households are on a financial precipice – and in danger of falling over it if interest rates rise.

     

    Leading economist Danny Gabay warned that a full-scale recovery will not take place until banks tackle the problem of the families who took out loans far beyond their means.

     

    The former Bank of England expert’s warning about the ‘zombie households’ which could be tipped into financial oblivion when interest rates rise were echoed by a series of finance experts last night. ...................

     

    Sukdhev Johal, reader in business policy at Royal Holloway, University of London, said: ‘There are many people living in a fool’s paradise because of low interest rates.

     

    ‘Everything is against people who have over-borrowed, including the threat of negative equity and rising unemployment. The only lifeline is low interest rates and if you take that away you could have properties coming on to the market in a fire sale.’

     

    On Saturday, the Mail revealed how families are already facing the biggest squeeze on living standards in a generation.

     

    Millions will be hit with huge rises in utility costs on top of hikes in other essential bills such as petrol. In a further blow, VAT is due to rise in January from 17.5 per cent to 20 per cent.

     

     

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13...l#ixzz14BKpIe7H


  9. I agree, that would be cherry picking of dates but he has back tested the theory 15 and 30 years.

     

    The theory, although interesting and open to backtesting/debate, was not really the point of why I posted it.

     

     

    Low/negative real interest rates are here now so gold is the best saving medium.

     

    2000 is a cherry picked date I agree, and gold is not so grossly undervalued now.

     

    With QE and living in an insolvent country I feel safe with gold.

     

    The paper money is plainly rubbish and more people will suss that out as time passes.

     

     

     

    “Of all the contrivances for cheating the labouring classes of mankind, none has been more effective than that which deludes them with paper money.” Daniel Webster


  10. Rightly or wrongly I have long since viewed gold as a stable currency which fiat paper moves in relation to. It made things easier in my mind to treat gold as a stable currency or a constant and I know that I am not alone.

     

    An interesting piece here about gold, the way that many of us view it http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/10/...erspective.html

     

    edit; sorry, wrong link. This is the source piece http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives...ce-of-gold.html

     

    I think most here would agree that gold was at such an extreme low valuation in 2000 that valuation of other assets using gold as a baseline would not give accurate results.

     


  11. full.gif

     

    Gold could easily consolidate to 1250 here. I'll be holding off from buying for now, but will set a mental reverse stop loss in place at about $25 above the lowest dip. When/ if the price bounces through that, will pull the trigger.

     

     

    pr.gif

     

    Yeah, I for one am hoping we are still in the bumbling up, and down with a gradual drift up part of this bull market.

     

    If it gonna be really big the big spike and final crash will be years away.

     


  12. Yeah, no need to panic if you are long gold. I've got a close eye on this correction and looking to buy more soon if its viable.

     

    I just want to save, that's all - I have a good job and all I want is to move purchasing power from now to a future when I will be unable to earn.

     

    I have ended up learning all sorts of monetary theory and just to try to achieve that I have to buy a volatile metal gold because cash depreciates even after interest.

     

    Fiat money is an evil scam.

     


  13. Yes, London prices are out of kilter with earnings but they always seem to be . I remember thinking they were too expensive in 1994!

     

    Interesting post which fits in with some of my friends seemingly unshakable confidence in houses as a safe investment because they "always have been".

     

    Maybe 1994 was a bear trap, it looks a bit like it when houses are priced in gold.

     

    If so and if bubbles take roughly the same amount of time to deflate as they took to form, the bottom could be two decades away.


  14. Yet, silver continues crashing down and refusing to attain the 20$ level.

     

    I know the fundamentals, but I have now decided to sell at least 15-20% of my silver holdings (in the

    form of shares) on every major opportunity.

     

    Silver has not shown the stability of gold, over the last 5 years and the silver/gold ratio keeps on climbing.

     

    Selling Eurosilver does not seem a bad idea at present, perhaps after the next peak.

     

    The fundamentals are excellent, some say the best of any metal in living memory.

     

    The instability must mean there will be times to exit in the not too far distant future with great profit.


  15. Thanks Jake, I have been a long time lurker, came here via HPC ;)

     

    I did too, I was saved from considerable financial loss by getting out of the SM at the right time and not doing BTL, GF and the HPC gold thread has made me 10's of £k, I feel I owe so much to these mostly anonymous people.


  16. CGNAOs call of £900/toz for this leg up is looking a lot more likely suddenly.

     

    cg is fundamental he knows collapse will happen soon and suddenly but not when.

     

    An economic arrangement can continue for quite some time after it becomes untenable, through sheer inertia. But at some point a tide of broken promises and invalidated assumptions sweeps it all out to sea. Demitri Orlov

     

     

    Could it be that gold is facing resistance at 1000 euros like it did at $1000?

     

    I expect so, the Euro remains important

     

    I saved the horror of the drop as I have decided to whenever I see a nice smackdown.

    Obviously those here will know the demand is hellishly strong for "consumer" physical.

    Most dealers are either out of small silver/gold products or have dwindling stocks.

     

     

    Ominously:

    COMEX gold open interest rises to all-time high

     

     

    gold-smackdown.jpg

     

    This sort of graph does not not worry me at all - it has happened so many times before, i would have thought the professional traders must feel the same

     

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