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Compounded

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  1. The conversation between Jim Puplava and Frank Barbera making up the first hour of pt 3 of this week's Financial Sense is excellent :

     

    http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html

     

    I just listened to it and recommended it, it's scary

     

    "In terms of dividend return the DOW is still higher than at the 1929 peak"

     

    ZG "Cantarell is a disaster", "OPEC is cutting production because of geology to but pretending it's voluntary".

     

    The gold chap was bullish too.

  2. I'm not sure that most people in the western world would agree with you that it is good news. The collapse of the global economy would bring enormous suffering to a lot of people, including GEI members' family and friends (unless you have enough gold salted away to look after them all!). I very much agree that the global economy is built on crumbling foundations and that we seem to be entering a phase of accelerated crisis. But who's to say that the shakeout won't take five or ten years, with plenty of twists and turns along the way. Its a mistake to underestimate human capacity to adapt and innovate in the face of crisis. All empires come to and end, including financial ones, but knowing that doesn't make it any easier to predict their demise with any degree of accuracy.

     

    ie Keep 10% in gold and hope it does not perform.

     

    I would be happy if my gold loses value and this crisis passes.

     

    I suspect not many have made a fortune just by owning gold, but believe many have preserved wealth in previous clamities by owning gold.

     

  3. I would ignore wiki on the origins of the pound as there are many historical references that point to its root in 'libra pundo'

     

    Your list of silver coins and weights covers the milled coins of the 1800's onwards and does not include the

    Four pence coin that existed from 1836 to 1888, with a weight of 1.89g being reduced to 1.87g in 1838

    Three half pence that existed from 1834 to 1862 with a weight of 0.7g

    Eighteen pence that existed from 1811 to 1816 with a weight of 7.3g

    Three Shilling that existed from 1811 to 1816 with an unknown original weight but it was thought to be approximately 15g

    Dollar that was minted in 1804

    If you want a good, easy reference with all this in try Collectors Coins GB 2008 ISBN: 0948964766 and for the more in depth The Story of British Coinage ISBN 0900652748 or A History of English Money by Albert Feavearyear 1931

     

    There is also Maundy silver but I think I have bored you all enough so I am off to brush any dirt from my anorak ;)

     

    The history of sterling is facinating, I have one of the 4d silver coins, it's tiny like a 3d but thicker.

     

    Fiat currency has a poor record and a fiat global reserve currency is IMO a risky unknown never tried before concept.

     

     

  4. http://www.theinternationalforecaster.com/...d_Silver_Buying

     

     

    We, the taxpayers, through the advice of our peerless leaders in Washington, have just nationalized Fannie and Freddie. In doing so, we have created the perfect fraud machine, thereby extending the life of one of the biggest Ponzi-schemes of all time, and giving it a lifetime warranty to boot, courtesy of the sheople................The current debt-based, fiat-money global economy is in the process of collapse. This monetary abomination and its accompanying manipulation will soon come to an end. No fiat currency has ever survived and when it does it will be catastrophic.

     

     

  5. Please excuse my lack of experience with charting but surely once a support line is broken, followed by another support line, doesn't it suggest that these lines are somewhat arbitrary? What does it mean if gold breaks support at 710? Is there a conclusion that can be drawn from that?

     

    I know that I if given the task of getting and keeping the gold price down would suppress the price in such a way as to produce bearish charts.

     

  6. I think you will have to be extremely quick - almost bound to gap up, I would have thought.

     

    edit: the frikkin pound is up by nearly 3c. If people are piling out of dollars into sterling (tempted to use GF's nomenclature here), it's hard to see gold avoiding the flow.

     

     

    £442.90 a few minutes ago on gold money - and my money had not got there yet.

  7. I should add that I still find the supercycle theory compelling, and that I respect the Bubbs, Schiffs, Bonners, Puplavas and Sinclairs of this world much more than the property cheerleaders who've been proved so woefully wrong.

     

    But what if they're mistaken now? The doubts are getting to me and making me wonder if I'm not cut out for this lark.

     

    It's a while since I read it, but James Ferguson's advice in Moneyweek to take profits from commodities before they go into the doldrums for a couple of years seems more prescient than ever.

     

    Ah well, you learn from your mistakes.

     

    What will you put those profits in?

  8. Is there a mechanism to bet on volitlity, regardless of direction?

     

    i.e. broker says gold will change $100. So you could bet on higher volitility (PoG>900 or <700) or lower (700<PoG<900)

     

    It could be that the bottom will occur when there are bugger all posts on a thread like this.

     

    The HPC gold thread definately went quiet when gold fell and was about to rally.

  9. I'm not sure I could get through that :mellow:

    What are your thoguhts on Juniors? I have a few, I think a number of them might die if what you describe above comes to pass..

     

    I am no expert on junior miners Dr Bubb is and it sounds like a full time job just to know a few, I just looked at he graph of the last gold bull and could see it's not easy to ride, the volatility just makes it very difficult to ride.

     

    I am certain we are in a gold bull - I think it will remain a gold bull until inflation is reported correctly and interest rates are higher than the real inflation rate.

     

    Trouble is there is so much debt they cannot raise interest rates to the levels needed without crashing the economy.

     

    So it's a mess and that sort of mess is bullish for gold.

  10. From the article I mentioned yesterday:

     

    GoldCorrectionsIn1970s.jpg

     

    GoldCorrectionsIn2000s.jpg

     

    from:

     

    WHAT I TELL MYSELF WHEN GOLD SELLS OFF

    - The Casey Files -

    by Jeff Clark

    Editor, BIG GOLD from Casey Research

    August 29, 2008

    http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/c.../2008/0829.html

     

     

    And a reminder of a prediction chart that JS approved. It's worth noting because of the large pull-backs.

    Gold/silver do not go up without falling back. That's why you either need to be very good on your timing, or know from the start that it's a long-term thing.

     

    Jim_Sinclair_Formula.jpg

     

    There is a long grinding it must at the time for people with our mindset have been excrutiating 50% correction from late 74 to late/mid 76 it's not pointed out on the graph - I am prepared for that to repeat because I am convinced of the fundamentals.

     

    If this repeats we will have a steadily falling price for nearly a year, bottoming at not much above $500 before heading to $4000.

     

    This is not going to be easy I think only the most committed will win big.

  11. Gold in Turdling since 1985:

     

    It's a shame the most long lived currency in history - sterling deserves the name turdling.

     

    No currency the Romans, Greeks or Egyptians have has come remotely near in terms of staying power

     

    Are we really going to allow it to be destroyed it for the sake of the USA a collection of old colonies that have become money mad?

     

    I guess the die is now cast.

  12. I admit I use the term goldbug loosely :D

     

    Like many on here, but not generally worldwide, I am currently a gold bull.

    If a goldbug implies always holding gold, then I might stay one, but only to a small percentage, say 5%. I can see sensible reasons for maintaining that small insurance, just in case.

     

    Holding none implies a 100% faith in what you have. IMO that is a questionable position.

     

    Edited to add: By the way, the number of contrarian posts on this forum indicates a bottom :D

     

    Well it should but I think we have mega manipulation by powerful financial institutions and we dont know what they will do, fundamentals will out - eventually - I suppose the key thing is how much time you have.

     

     

    Precisely. Gold is a store of value. I'm not buying it as an investment.

     

    I think the manipulation is important - the longer it goes on the bigger the eventual breakout should be and the greater the transfer of wealth to gold holders will be, mind you I am still keeping my day job. If I lose that the odds are the system will be in such a bad shape gold will gain value - I suppose that's the insurance part of gold holding.

     

     

    When the Dollar falls, gold most likely will go up again. And it will go up more than the Dollar falls.

     

    Remember in the 70's bull a 50% correction happened just a few years before the gold bubble - that must have been truly terrifying at the time for goldbugs.

     

    Volatility - we ain't seen nothing yet IMO.

     

     

    Genuine question folks

     

    given that the pound is falling againts the dollar...

     

    How much has gold fallen in value in uk pounds?

     

    Is it as much as seems to be the case in terms of the price of gold in dollars?

     

    Or, has the fall in the price of gold in pounds been less than would at first appear in dollar terms?

     

    I saw a kruger in a York shop for sale at £400 in December spot is now £450 - we UK gold holders have nothing to complain about.

     

  13. Robert Kiyosaki ......... has a huge audience with his books, internet sites and TV appearances over in the US. He was probably one of the main people hyping up the housing market.... in phase 3 of that bull run.

     

    His RichDad book was one of the first I read and it helped me appreciate some of the basics

     

    1. The house you live in is not and investment it is a liability (Big House = big bills ) - it's not good if it is your biggest asset.

     

    2. He was banging on about the government's unsustainable liabilities years ago and IMO is quite right to assert that relying on the government to look after you is unwise.

     

    I do think he was far too rental property bullish - I think he mentored Casey Sarin!!!

     

     

    Listening to the "today" programme on Radio 4 this morning....

     

    Section on the price of gold and the disparity between the gold spot price in the markets for good delivery bars and the price for smaller investmewnt bars and coins.

     

    The analysis basically stated that the spot price on the markets was falling due to people shorting the market in the expectation of a recession.

     

    However, the people buying physical bullion ( in particular, coins) were doing so with a much longer term view of a global monetary crisis in mind. Hence the price was holding up in this market sector. It also went on to suggest that such longer term investors saw this as a buying opportunity

     

    Very interesting interview

     

    Thanks for posting this I missed it and as you say it's interesting.

     

  14. That's an amazingly steep drop compared to last time !

     

    In my eyes it's a confirmation that this is a much bigger bubble and the current correction as I and many on the old HPC expected will be massive it is already looking like it will be much bigger.

     

    The overshoot also should be in proportion very big and might produce very good bargains - not for a year or two yet IMO.

     

     

  15. I agree, if people really must simplify things just look at the big picture rather than trying to understand the detail.

     

    The economy is 90% propaganda (yesterdays US GDP!), governments are in place to steer the economy and manage the propaganda. This is what they do, if it is in the "greater" interest of country I have no doubt they intervene in the key markets, that is why we have governments, it is just their role is a little more sophisticated these days from what most people perceive it to be.

     

    People have written scripts for what is happening now several years ago, I recommend reading "The Final Crash" by Hugo Bouleau (http://www.finalcrash.com/). It is hardly surprising they have been so successful given the time they have had to prepare for the events.

     

    If manipulation is not being used in all the key markets/indicators we are mighty lucky how things have paned out so far in what is undoubtedly the worst financial crisis of anyone likely to be posting on this board!

     

    The more I learn the more I am convinced the money men including the government at the centre are bleeding the working man white.

     

    I detest and distrust them, I have debt free property and precious metal and nothing in the crazy soon to be bankrupt financial system.

     

    I will not pay for cheaters porsches.

  16. I am a big fan of Occam's Razor which states "All other things being equal, the simplest solution is the best." In other words, when multiple competing theories are equal in other respects, the principle recommends selecting the theory that introduces the fewest assumptions and postulates the fewest entities.

     

    Competing Theories

     

    Theory 1: The US government, foreign governments, central banks, various broker-dealers, and a consortium of 10 large US banks are all acting together in some massive conspiracy to suppress the price of precious metals, for 15 years running, and during that period not a single person has stepped up to expose the fraud even though CIA and other intelligence leaks have been running rampant.

     

    Theory 2: There was massive selling by over-leveraged hedge funds in response to fundamental changes in regards to the US dollar vs. the Euro.

     

    We could have both at the same time.

     

    I suspect most here think we have.

  17. Here’s some more of my analysis of oil vs gold for the last eight years. This post is topical, as we go from what I see as the “gold winter season” (Mar-Aug) to a “gold summer season” (Sep-Feb) during the next week.

     

    Look how the gold-to-oil ratio varies between both seasons – both graphs normalized to the ratio on the first day of the “season” There is a clear (but gradual) mean downward trend from Mar-Aug and a clear mean upwards trend from Sept-Feb (mostly before Xmas). This pattern holds for most years, although there are exceptions.

     

    I’m wondering if we are nearing a bottom in the gold-to-oil ratio, which would suggest better prospects for gold in the next few months.

     

    It's funny how events seem to reinforce this seasonality.

     

    Me - I buy and hold I am not clever.

     

    Something's wrong and gold is good in bad times is all you need to know.

  18. Some people go physical in gold, so why not oil?

     

    Tanks, fire risk, insurance etc. etc.

     

    Gasoline and diesel also decay - you must put preserver in or they will become unusable in a few years - esp with the most advanced engines.

     

    Going physical in terms of cash value is easier in gold than anything else.

     

    Thats why a free market has tended to make gold money.

  19. Well maybe, but the dollar or other foreign currencies are far more prevalent in the black market there, from what I've heard.

     

    I would certainly expect it, who knows about gold?

     

    Real money has been the all powerful dollar for so long now.

     

    Failure of the dollar is needed for the paradigm shift IMO.

     

  20. In this country, yes. In places like vietnam gold is the unofficial currency. They even have mortgages denominated in gold ounces.

     

    I am shocked. I thought gold could never become a proper currency again until the USD had totally and utterly failed - which I am certain will happen sometime, will probably happen in the next 10 years but could be decades away.

     

    I was under the illusion that countries with failing fiat like Russia, Zimbabwe etc. just adopted the USD as a black market currency not gold.

     

  21. No :(

     

    A beautiful Sunny day.

     

    I have a really bad cold, and am stuck inside feeling..........yuk :rolleyes:

     

    Have one for me :D

     

    Dreadful summer here but it's been nice today - apart from the hailstorm with thunder this morning.

     

    I think your basics on gold thread is brill, wish I had found something like it earlier.

     

    Must have taken ages to do.

     

     

     

     

     

     

  22. :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

     

    I think that deserves a little more prominence ;)

     

    InvestorMind.gif

     

    :lol: :lol:

     

    Fundamentals will out

     

    Fundamentals will out

     

    Fundamentals will out.

     

    I am guessing gold is a bit odd, very very volatile, but christ look at a chart of the 70's gold price.

     

    FFS you lot gold has 25% corrections in bull markets regularly, all you have to do is be sure you understand the fundamentals.

     

    Forget gold, to decide the fundamental of gold all you need to know - is the dollar crap?

     

    Had a few beers so will post anyway.

     

     

     

     

     

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