skinny

Bubb - this could be construed as negative, but it's really not, just seeking to clarify your method....... Why did the Weekly [as opposed to Daily] OTPs in Gold, HUI not alert you sooner [like on the way up] Is it because you are reviewing your methods & looking for subtlties you may have missed / new angles etc ? Find the whole subject very interesting, as by definition any PARABOLA [thinking lots of individual commodities & the likes of the HK/Chinese Indicies] is going to be built on OTPs & likely some GAPS

>I second that - In the Big Picture [FINANCIAL SENSE NEWSHOUR], Eric King interviews British Ian MacDonald, Executive >Director - Gold & Precious Metals >Dubai Multi Commodities Centre in Dubai. [Part 3a]" Agree - was wonderful UNTIL King asked where he say gold going........ "Up, unless there is a world recession, which is unlikely as latest US GDP figures are encouraging [paraphrased]" Not what I was wanting to hear. On the other hand.... Jim Rogers [paraphrasing again] - "I am the worst trader in the world, I just like to buy when prices are declining." He is buying silver, amongst other commodities. http://jimrogers-investments.blogspot.com/ ........makes me feel a bit more chilled

Not a lot of intellectual input to add Just.... 1. I am terrified - but that is usually a decent contrarian signal [cos all other silver holders are equally terrified & a lot will have sold] 2. i know a lot of what ted butler says is hard to prove, but think he said recently that a couple of major silver miners [Hecla, Cour de Lane ?] made a loss in Q2, and he reckoned the marginal cost of production was around $17. So prices less than this are unsustainable LT, as it will result in lower production. 3. David Morgan rebutes "world reccession = lower industrial demand = lower prices" with.... "world reccession = lower industrial demand = true = less base metal mining = lower silver mined [byproduct of base metals]prices = lower industrial demand - balanced by lowe production" 4. Bob Hoye has called this very well so far [as has Tim Wood] Think [he is hard to nail down] he is saying Silver may bottom [temporarily] with DOW late Oct NOv.... would appreciate Cuthbert's take on this

Thanks Quark, here are 2 CWR interviews from 2007 http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/2007/06/...a-and-aquiline/ http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/2007/10/...ichael-hampton/ One of them is absolutly wonderful [he pulls Frizzers leg nicely too], can't rember which one

Can't find the original post about Paul Van Eeden saying gold was overvalued, but here is a recent interview http://watch.bnn.ca/trading-day/august-200...2008/#clip84424 Bubb - u dismissed his reasoning - wonder if u could flesh that out a bit He certainly looks quite smart just now - went neutral at 1000, nibbling sub 800, as beleives fair value = 760

Bubb - is your ABC the same as an EW ABC corrective wave, or just your own notation for a 3 point move ? Ask as wondering if u think pentration of 900 on big volume would imply an EW Wave 3 of 5 down - and hence your wanings to watch 900 and volume VERY closely [as Wave 5 might terminate sub-800]

Hope it's ok to put this here - reason is Bubb says he regards it now the main commentary thread. Obviously nice bounce for the SPX Bulls yesterday. And China bounced nicely off it's summer lows this morning [EXCELLENT sentiment for all the Far East markets ] But Hong Kong's [HSI / HCSE] & other Asian markets were pretty feeble - gains smaller than SPX, when twice the SPX % gains might have been expected, especially as they have been sold off much more. Maybe, just maybe they don't beleive it is over yet.

I'll have a go for you if you like, using my [poor] memory of one of your old podcasts A derivitive may be repackaged and sold on many times [say 10 times], just like "pass the parcel"? BIS valuations count all 10 of those transactions when it should just be the last, as that party is the only one holding the "parcel"?

That should certainly "fix" one problem that was concerning you....... The bullish concenus [less Faber, TOB] 675 is very low [think TOB gave a similar number] - did he detail why that level was on his mind ? Do YOU see anything troubling in the HUI / GDX chart ?

Thanks AceofKY - very helpful to have your take on things - will take a look at these shares

Well done AceofKY. What is your take on the value of the junoirs now ?

>From 2002 to early 2007, the Juniors ran ahead too fast, and the companies became too expensive for the Majors to >continue making acquisitions. Intersting - think this is what AceofKY was saying earlier, but from his own fundamental analysis.... "1. I think most gold stocks were valued very highly until August 07. I assemble discounted cash flow models on every miner that I research, and prior to August it was impossible to find a gold miner in a safe country that traded at NAV or lower. Most, in fact, traded at prices at least 2 times NAV. The market was already pricing in a big jump in gold price. 2. I know I've been beating this like a dead horse, but the mining companies haven't been increasing their profits during this period of high prices. Construction costs and operating costs are rising as fast (or faster) than the gold price. Since corporations are valued based on expected future profits (rather than a simple proportional relationship to gold price), there has not yet been sufficient justification to bid up the already high valuations. Even things such as the acid used in heap leach operations are experiencing significant cost increases." Wonder what his take on the value of them is now - I'll ask....

Sorry for delay NabCom - work shifts Wanted to keep things as simple as posible, with no currency risk to worry about Of course I would have done much better just getting the GTX etf as frizzers says I'm green

Not exactly what you are saying Frizzers, but along the same lines.... I bought the Silver ETF as a way [hopefully] of getting similar action to the gold miners, but in a simpler [single sterling transaction], cheaper way [just one dealing charge]. I just have a small stake, so is ideal for me. Bad news is I didn't buy till at $15, as I had to open a new account [selftrade] just to get access to the Sterling versionof the etf