Jump to content

marceau

Members
  • Content Count

    908
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation

0 Neutral

About marceau

  • Rank
    Tri-Centurion
  1. Where are you Marceau? Missing your posts!

  2. marceau

    UK House prices: News & Views

    John Doe, I've read what you've written over the last few pages (and few years), and all you seem to offer is misdirection, misrepresentation and confirmation bias - a superficial parroting dogmatist. You're not the only one who's been around a while, but if you can't or won't take the time to understand why this situation is different to the 70s then I see no point in engaging with you further - and I'd recommend that no-one else here attempt it either. A lost cause in every regard. I think you're a panglossian fool of the most dangerous type. Look away if you must - but don't encourage others to do so.
  3. marceau

    UK House prices: News & Views

    I've said it before and no doubt I'll say it again before this is over. ALL possible outcomes from this situation result in rapid and dramatic rate rises. It still amazes me that so few understand how fragile, artificial and temporary the current rate environment is. It could last a few more years, but in terms of a 25 year+ mortgage commitment that's the blink of an eye. Taking on hefty debt at the moment is pure folly.
  4. marceau

    UK House prices: News & Views

    They were not lucky, they followed the advice of those who managed the bailouts. They won a rigged game without any comprehension of the deeper risk of playing in a crooked system. When those who manage the bailouts fail, so will your 'lucky' friends. They have lashed themselves to the mast of rotten ship. Normalcy bias. I don't recall anyone on this board killing themselves or living in nuclear shelters, most here appear to run businesses. Despite increasingly an increasingly hostile and barren environment, 2011 was the most profitable year of my life so far, I'm not giving up, I intend to prosper. Do not confuse pragmatism with nihilism.
  5. marceau

    UK House prices: News & Views

    If they think that then they quite clearly still don't understand anything. The slow grind is the least likely outcome. Even in the most flexible indebted economies this option is the equivalent of walking a tightrope over a 1000ft drop with a faulty balancing pole, where the weight at each end of the pole keeps changing randomly and dramatically without warning. Oh, and the tightrope will take 25 years to cross. A generation of low growth is the BEST we can hope for and credit availability still has a long way to fall IMO. How far? Look at the South American credit systems and weep. We're going exactly the same way for almost exactly the same reasons.
  6. marceau

    GOLD

    Terrible news everyone - it looks like Bubb was right: The plentiful hidden gold starts to emerge.
  7. marceau

    GOLD

    There are stories on the web that say giant space lizards run the world, that doesn't mean the subject is credible. Oh, and consipracy loons and death threats go together like coffee and cream, there's a word used to describe these people - unhinged.
  8. marceau

    GOLD

    Haha, ditto. I've maintained a disciplined silence on my financial beliefs (like it's some kind of weird religion lol) since 2007, when it was clear the level of delusion was so absolute that I just couldn't win by trying to warn people. Ever since then I've just paitiently watched and chuckled at the complete surprise of those around me as it all played out. This year has seen a noticable increase in the number of people coming to me for 'my take on the situation' - this month, however, the numbers have gone through the roof. All are talking about inflation, gold, house prices, debt (although, critically, not deficits) and what they should do next. This may sound harsh, but with most I stay silent - their continued ignorance is necessary for my 'Personality Indicator' to keep working. Back in 2007 I selected the opinion and behaviour of certain individuals as a measure of how far along we've come on the bubble lifecycle for various assets. It nailed the recent gold selloff, much to my delight - and I just need two more people to 'turn' and we'll be into the enthusiasm phase!
  9. marceau

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Yup. Buys time, fixes nothing. That 50% haircut in itself will probably eat the whole bailout fund. All I can say is LOL.
  10. marceau

    UK House prices: News & Views

    All of your points are rebutted elsewhere in my post. Please re-read. My final comment is that stockpiling will not work. Make of that what you will.
  11. marceau

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Yes, BUT. Take a look at Keen and (I hate to say it) Denninger. They explain the basic figures in simple and understandable terms. Personally I don't think the R&R 90% can be applied to this crisis. It may work in isolation, but not for the multiple concurrent debt burdens we have at the moment, the critical level of debt to GDP could be much, much higher in these circumstances. Admittedly, though, the historical comparisons using the R&R figures are devastating. For more depth take in viewpoints not usually seen here, including the accounting offered by the chartalists. Their appraisal of the process which got us here and continues to this day is impeccable IMO. Their conclusions, however, seem to be totally disconnected from reality - for them deficits really don't matter and it's a real eye opener. Once you can understand the differences between their appraisal, the neo-classical and austrian approaches I think you have enough to form your own basic view. Compounding debt is only part of the problem, albeit a very big one. The real issue is structural and cultural. Unwinding promises and changing embedded practices can be extremely challenging, even on a small scale. In the case of western societies the scale is unprecedented and I doubt the ship can be turned around while maintaining any semblance of order. It's the order that is important, without it events spiral out of control. My take is the maths drives the viability of good order, then order (of lack thereof) drives the sentiment, speeding the process. For what it's worth I think we get a long emergency with a short catastrophe at the end. Then we see what those zeros really mean.
  12. marceau

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Unless you live in the wilderness, those zeros are part of the fabric of your existence. Discount their importance at your peril. The key words here are at present. The supply chains that enable this bounty are fragile, complex and operate on the thinnest of margins. I don't personally expect food shortages, but it is a distinct possibility in a systemic financial collapse, or even just in a severe recession. The world will still turn, people will still work. A whole lot of other things can change and that would still be true. I take it you never buy insurance? Or plan ahead? Or read any of the hundreds of posts on this subject in this very forum? Maybe, but for many those times were indeed catastrophic, and IMO we'll be very lucky to get off as lightly. Either way, you're right, we will get through it. That doesn't mean everyone should just look away and whistle happy tunes. Systemic failure. Your bank no longer exists. Your pension and savings are gone. Your salary is meaningless. Traditional units of exchange are no longer recognized. Governments can't pay their employees. There is no social safety net. International trade ceases along with the flow of goods. Businesses cannot function. Supply chains cannot function. Food and other essentials become hard to obtain. Rioting. Bloodshed. War. Fire and brimstone. Dogs and cats living together. All of these have happened to a developed country somewhere in the world in just the last 20 years (apart from the last few maybe). Then look back 50 years, then 100, then 200. Systemic financial and associated social crises are so common that historically they're almost the norm. And yes, we'll still get through it. Some better than others - that's the point. You have correctly identified current worldwide economic policy. Same result, different route. Possibly different time line (unknown, in case you ask). Google the maths, google historical comparisons. Weep. Catastrophe is always relative. A flood or earthquake wouldn't appear catastrophic next to a giant meteor strike - ask any dinosaur, preferably a happy one. In the context of a thread about housing and the financial system it shouldn't be too hard to figure out the meaning. Maybe I should have used the word Panglossian. Fairies or not, positivity will not trump mathematics. Although I've heard that what you can't see can't hurt you, apparently.
  13. marceau

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Sorry matey, don't agree. The figures involved ARE catastrophic. And even if they weren't, it appears you think that paying down debt is just an issue of time. Even at a supra-national level, let alone household, that's simply not the case. Leaving aside the (killer) issue of interest, that debt burden will rob Western economies of fresh capital for decades. That's less money for business, innovation, welfare and a million other things we take for granted that the rest of the world doesn't have. That capital was our edge, it was that capital that kept us ahead, gave us time, allowed for innovation, broadened our horizons - and now we've not merely consumed it, we've also consumed the next generation's worth of it. So, even assuming the level of debt isn't high enough to cause systemic failure (which it is), every year we spend paying it down sends us closer to the worldwide average - and that's a hell of a long way down from where we are at the moment. You're correct when you say the media are dead wrong - but it's because they're UNDERSTATING the problem, having failed to understand it. Positive thinking, fairies and rainbows will make no difference. The best case is that we write it off and start from scratch. The worst case doesn't bear thinking about. We've eaten the larder clean and we've already started to eat ourselves.
  14. marceau

    GOLD

    Strange to feel relief at a fall like this, but that's exactly my sensation at the moment. Maybe, just maybe, I'll be able to buy under £1000 just one last time.
  15. And so voices were heard throughout the land - 'margin call gentlemen'.
×