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ecoface

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Everything posted by ecoface

  1. ecoface

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Absolutely not. None of the big volume plcs have gone under or been acquired in this housing downcycle. In the 70s and 80s/90s cycle there were several major casulties in each cycle. You could say the Crest Nicholson deal last summer was effectively the main casulty, but we are only 2 years into this fall. Given we have at least another 2 years of price falls to encounter, it is far too premature to think these companies have written down their values to where they should be. Housebuilding is arguably the most leverage hungry industry on earth. I would be very careful indeed of having any shares in this sector.
  2. ecoface

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Yes, I just saw this. Its the post Rights issue price. Pre RI £2.56 TERP = (£2.56 + £1.30)/2.3 = £1.68 In theory the price should level off around £1.68 (depending on confidence, take up etc etc) It should pick up now, so just an admin blip?
  3. ecoface

    Wind Energy Prospect

    Gunter, Interesting, can you send me a business plan? Thanks.
  4. ecoface

    UK House prices: News & Views

    I am making a call for the end of the Dead Cat Bounce in UK resi property. I have been watching BDEV for a month and it topped in Sept. IMO. I work in property development and activity is definitely tailing off. Darker sentiment is returning. I have been on several seminars recently where talk is definitely of a W shape and we are embarking on a return to harder times. I could provide more evidence but have lack of time. I will be intrigued to see Spline's updated Oct bellweather Index (last updated in Sept). Bubb do you have this? I have been waiting for 2-3 months to post this and have finally made a call based on my own experiences and what is happening in the resi land market too. (I don't think confidence will return until after the election, if at all. The only possible argument the property bulls can have is that supply will dry up in the usual fashion as owners delay marketing their property until after the results.)
  5. ecoface

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Blackrock adds to it short position
  6. ecoface

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Nice head and shoulders pattern is forming on BDEV.
  7. This thread is ridiculous. The last time someone offended on the degree they have done recently, they were evicted for several months. How many times do we have to give someone a chance? Ban the fool and lets move on from this. Set an example and show some authority.
  8. ecoface

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Watch the rights issues for these two builders. With the markets turning they could be in alot of trouble. Speculation was that the money was more for seeing out existing commitments rather than to create new money (through new site acquisitions), hence dead money. What on earth would anyone want to invest in housebuilders for? Since mid Sept when they offered the rights issues BDEV and RDW (Redrow) have fallen very sharply. I will be watching Persimmon (PSN). That sp has been whacked too since Barratt and Redrow went begging to the market for more capital. The rights issue for BDEV ends in 4 weeks (Nov 3rd) with a strike price for the supporting syndicate of 100p. Given how much the sp has fallen already and we are potentially in for a large correction in EMs over the next month, then... If the underwriting syndicate panics then there will be greater downward pressure on the share price. In other words they may well then short Barratts to drive the price lower to 100p (about 63% off 270p) It would be one magnificent fall if they did but, remember that only 6 months ago Barratt was trading at below 100p. It is intresting to note that the following have shorted Barratt recently: Marshall Wace LLP - 02 October 2009 GLG Partners LP - 01.10.09 JGD Management Corp. 25 September 2009 Cazenove Cap Mgnt.Ld - 28 September 2009 BlackRock Group - 24th Sept
  9. ecoface

    UK House prices: News & Views

    If the markets do turn over the next week or so then Barratts et al could well be in a lot of trouble. The rights issues that occurred earlier in the year were considerably better timed. Research from several estate agents indicate that activity has fallen off in the last week. I reckon that come October we could be seeing the turn in property too, and winter may come early. But then again the duration of the dead cat bounce has surprised me. Cash rich buyers are the supporters of this market right now, and as EMs fall and fear sets in again, then property will be punished. I don't often link property sentiment to equity market's performance, but this time I can quite easily see how closely related they are.
  10. ecoface

    GOLD

    I posted this last week on the Trading Diary thread: I'm not putting this on the Gold thread because the last time I aired my views on going short at $970, I got shot down. Gold seems to be taking a breather around 920-930. I have been short gold since 970 so done okay. But now we are in the doldrums. I have found it difficult to decide if to get out my short position or hold for further falls. We may have to wait for the Fed's meeting next wednesday for major movements in all markets including gold. If if the Fed holds rates then this could pummel gold. But I need further guidance. So I have looked at the last 2-3 months of movements in gold and compared patterns with the last 2 years'. The closest comparison to the 3 month pattern is that which peaked in August last year. MACD, momentum, RSI, correlation to 50 MA, all very similar indeed. That correction ended down near $750. If gold breaks $915-920 by next Thursday then expect the worse IMHO (it could bottom at $850 though). So I will continue to hold my SBUL (short gold) for another week (I had planned to exit tomorrow but I feel there is more to come). (FWIW if the Fed raises rates next Wed then this strategy changes.)
  11. Did you manage to find the time to go to this? If so was it worth it?
  12. A Super Cheap Commodity By Chris Mayer 06/16/09 Gaithersburg, Maryland Natural gas is more than a place to hide. It is, simply put, super cheap. As most other commodities — including oil — have rallied, natural gas remains stuck in a bog. In fact, the ratio of the price of crude oil to the price of natural gas topped 18-to-1 recently, which we have not seen since 1990, according to Barron’s. The price of natural gas fell because there was too much of it. We are in a recession, after all. Industrial demand for natural gas has fallen through the floor and into the basement. But mindless zombies or congressional leaders (I repeat myself…) do not run this industry. Producers are cutting back. And the decline rates on those gushing shale gas plays (which helped contribute so much gas to the pool) are 60-75%. Meaning that if these producers don’t drill, the flow of gas from their wells will fall by that much in the first year. And they aren’t drilling — not as much. The rig count has collapsed. It has fallen much faster than in the 1981/82 collapse, the worst since the Great Depression and one that still makes old natural gas men cringe to this day. Another point: The marginal cost to produce natural gas for the vast majority of the industry is probably somewhere around $6-8. This next chart gives you a good snapshot of what the U.S. gas situation looks like. Right now, the spot price of natural gas is under $4 and sits right on the industry’s cash costs and well below marginal costs. In short, natural gas supply is going to start to dry up here really soon. Grab your natgas ideas before the rush.
  13. This is interesting. So you think oil will continue to above $100 by the Autumn I was expecting a correction from this intermediate high of $72ish, but it is not happening. All the indicators are that supply is too great to sustain these prices and as the dollar gets stronger over the next few weeks, money will leave oil. Do you think there will be a correction of oil down to early $50s. Generally, this site has been quiet about oil in the last few months. It doesn't appear that many invested in the rally from 40 to 70 which is a huge gain. We have been diverted into playing around with EMs and taken our eye of the ball. It would be good to get this site communicating on oil again.
  14. Okay, so Venezuela, Russia, Iran have got their $70 a barrel. This recent rally is built on speculation with a short term glut. Time for a decent correction IMHO. Anyone else go short this week like me?
  15. ecoface

    GOLD

    I got my head bitten off a few days ago on this thread for mentioning gold was overbought.
  16. ecoface

    Uranium Buys and Sells

    News just in that Chinalco looks set to pull out of bid for RioTinto. This may affect the perception that RioTinto is less able to compete for the south rossing fields. Let's hope so.
  17. ecoface

    GOLD

    Thanks for the detailed reply which is most useful. FWIW I only use RSI as a minor TA along with CMF, Volume, and usual patterns and so on, certainly not in isolation which is what your email implies. I couldn't be bothered to write a long speil about all the reasons... If it was as easy as just using RSI to show a sell date when it got above 70 then how rich we would all be! (As a point of detail RSI on my 6 monthly chart for PHAU shows RSI above 80).
  18. ecoface

    GOLD

    I always accept that I will get burnt if I get it wrong. Like last year for example when I lost a lot from PM investing.
  19. ecoface

    GOLD

    I got $43.1 on SBUL. Hold on , I am only going short gold for a a few weeks or month(s), maybe picking up the short term correction. I'll see how it goes for the next week or so. In the long run I agree with you completely. I see a triple top potentially in gold though before the spike or massive movement to 1300++ (which will come next year IMO.) I am short banks already (XS7S), and short FTSE and to a lesser extent S&P. I am recently short oil too, as I believe we have reached an interim top. This like gold could be a short-term play for me. I am long Natural Gas from these lows. I am long Soyabeans too. I am covered to a degree with inflationary hits by Index linked bonds (INXG).
  20. ecoface

    GOLD

    I am only going short for the short term correction as my original post states - I don't disagree with the longer term trend. I just simply think that this is not "it" yet.
  21. ecoface

    GOLD

    Sorry, I should have also added that I went short Oil yesterday too.
  22. ecoface

    GOLD

    Of course I put my money where my mouth is. Indeed I already have done a Gold Short today. In the end I didn't look for confirmation from gold bugs like your goodself as invariably I would get the sort of response like you provided. I just wanted to share some views. So I apologise for doing that. The fact remains that you can not answer why RSI and CMF is so high. I had read the posts - please show me which one answers this - or can't you be bothered "bla, bla bla".
  23. ecoface

    GOLD

    How do gold bugs respond to the TA revealing an overbought position? Look at RSI, Chaikin money flow, and also volume? FWIW, I reckon we are in shortly in a for quite a large short term correction in gold as indicators are all showing overbought without underlying support. I also reckon the dollar will bottom this next week and rally for the short term, and $ dominated commodities such as oil will correct and fall from around $70 which is a top. ...at least this is the general theme of how I will be investing for the next few months.
  24. Perhaps supply is dampening recovery but read this: http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editoria.../2009/0602.html The uptrend has now been formed by confirmation of a higher low. I think we are at the earley stages of a bull market which will last about a year. However, I would like to see the next high beat mid May's for confirmation, and indeed then the following low to be higher again than the low at the end of May. But then again I hold NGAS so am looking for signs... What do people think about the TA?
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