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marmite

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Everything posted by marmite

  1. looking good for a four figure afternoon fix in £ First time @ £1000
  2. The thing that concerns me is that if I had bought property in 1998 and rode the bull all through the heady days of 2006, missed the top and sold today. I would still stand to receive substancial returns. The housing market is like a huge oil tanker and takes years to slow, stop and reverse. What I am not so sure on is the speed that commodity markets slow, stop and reverse. ( yes, yes I know GIM etc ) Knowing / planning when to " jump ship " certainly is turning into a burden for me. It would be a shame to join the bull early only to exit just when its getting exciting. Likewise no one wants to ride the wave all the way up and down ( probably adding further to my position on the way down ) In everyway I agree with all here that the peak is probably years off, but it doesn't stop me questioning my reasoning.
  3. Exactly. I think well I could sell a portion and that would mean the remaining portion is in affect free, but what would I do with the money. I have no other choise but to ride the bull.
  4. This is trully going to be a testing time for all of us, when the bull starts bucking can we stay aboard. I have to ask myself am I prepared to ride it up to £1100 then see the drop to £890 ???? Am I staying with the herd or am " I " the herd ?? At what point do I exit ?? Maybe I should have answered that question when I entered @ £300......Oh I did.....£500, no hold on longer....£700, no hold on longer.....£800, ok sell some ( only 5 - 10% ) and buy back lower......Dammm it, its still going up..........Ok, sell @ £900, oh missed that, never mind still going up will hang in there.................................... When will this madness end :-)
  5. I have not seen this posted here. Tescos are doing cash4gold https://www.tescogoldexchange.com/
  6. £9 short of £900, looking strong today What is causing this current weakness in the £ ??? We had 1.60 all last week, but now down to 1.55
  7. Up $17 right out of the traps. Could be a interesting day
  8. new York has woken up with a slam dunk
  9. Did anyone catch what the special was ?? I logged in at 10am London time and it was gone !!!!!!!!!!!
  10. HEADS UP - CID will be doing a Gold special offer on saturday morning Any gueses what it will be ??? Maybe a 2010 nugget or 2010 krug or will it be a 2009 1/4 mexican liberted
  11. "Lansing said that anyone considering using this facility should factor in the cost of holding a London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) account, which is the required recipient of the redeemed gold. He said: ‘There are additional costs in moving the investment grade gold into an account and form that an investor can conveniently hold.’ " It looks like there are additional costs above the £750. I think we will see more and more people take delivery in the future.
  12. If this story is true, someone is paying a huge premuim too have physical delivery. The question is why ??? Maybe he has spent too much time over at GIM " if you dont hold it, you dont own it "
  13. ETF investor turns paper into gold bullion for the first time http://m.citywire.co.uk/wealth-manager/etf...st-time/a439461
  14. Looking strong this morning, $1300 before london awakes
  15. Hi GF, I for one would be very interested in following your journey. Please post a chronicle of your adventures and best of luck. I see nothing wrong with a bit of gambling money.
  16. Seasonally we are at the time of upwards pressure
  17. Jim is bullish here. Anyone jumping in ? http://jsmineset.com/ Strapping In For The Big Move Posted: Sep 07 2010 By: Jim Sinclair Post Edited: September 7, 2010 at 10:28 pm Filed under: General Editorial Dear CIGAs, Now that expectations for Gold at very significant prices are being offered by various rational sources, there is one thing you can be sure of. That one thing is $1650. I am getting many emails asking how it is possible for the gold price to reach $1650 by early January. I suspect these are far out in time, out of the money call option buyers that have done exactly what I have warned against. That is the using of options with an investment outlook. Options are speculations that you never hold past the half way to expiry point, but instead switch to further out months if you believe in what you are doing. Those that pre-offer gold cannot trade it at $1650 in January because of the short time versus the big moves. They clearly have never experienced the gold run in late 1979 and early 1980. I will stand with what I have said for nearly 10 years. Gold will trade at $1650 on or before January 14th, 2011. That never made me want to buy expensive in time call options. It has given me the courage to invest in gold without margin both in shares and bullion. There is no doubt in my mind that $1650 will occur in early 2011. I have told you that Martin Armstrong, a master timer, feels that gold will trade higher and face a reaction in middle to late June of 2011. The gold banks are throwing blocks to the price as we approach $1262. This is a major waste of time and money as gold is going to and through that price. The only argument is whether gold will hit $1650 in January 2011 or $3000-$5000 in June 2011. Do you have any idea how much money has been made by those that bought gold modestly and in cash only on every reaction and sold into the rhino horns? It sounded stupid when I suggested this tactic for the wannabe traders. I ran 22,000 long gold contracts in the New York and London markets in 1978 to 1980. Back then that was a big number. Today if I have a conviction, I simply play with everything I have and screw credit. The only credit I would use as a pro trader is options. Those of you who follow me closely know that I am NOT kidding. This is the time when PRICE and TIME meet each other. This is the time now as it was in 1979 that I went throttle to floor. This is the time now as it was in 1979 that I am committing 100% of all the cash I can accumulate to what I believe in. This is the time when all I have planned for is falling into place for the final and enormous pay day. However, I will not and you should not violate discipline, as I have always tried to teach you. Option are never held past 50% of time left when you purchased them. If I am wrong about gold at $1650 on or before 14/01/11 it only means gold will trade much higher than $1650 five months later. As far as being long and wrong, that is something I definitely am not. Respectfully, Jim
  18. I think this week we may see some weakness in gold. Watch the action @ 2:30 between now and Friday. The london market is closed next Monday, the markets will be thin. I can see the longs being squeezed for one last time during the late summer doldrums. The price needs to be weakend before option expiry date at the end of the month.
  19. +1 for ATS, very professional and friendly. You can always phone your order forward although all payements have to be made in cash / debit card. This is normal for the london physical market.
  20. Watch out for the end of the month, it will be the low of the year Excellent post on http://jsmineset.com/ Dear CIGAs, If the past three years has taught us anything about markets, it is that they will do what they are set up to do. OTC Derivatives, financial Ponzi schemes (Madoff etc) and gyrating Fed policy are but a few of the machinations determined by the new market Fundamentals… the Fundamentals of government policy. The political and legislative environment creates new Fundamentals that economic realities were supposed to. As government becomes more self-indebted, and politically captured by special interests, the markets reflect these political realities instead of the economic fundamentals they should. None of this is news. It has been going on for years. But it is not as benign as it used to be. At the outset its just favouritism: a (usually no-bid) government contract is awarded and a company share price roars on the back of it. Legislative tweaking portends winners and losers. But then things get out of hand. An early signal was found not only in the insanity of the mortgage backed securities markets and their attendant derivatives, but was also evident in the energy industry. Nobody in their right mind believes that fundamentals had the slightest thing to do with crude oil’s move from 2006 to 2008 – but the shrill cry of “Peak Oil” (Hat Tip Media) sure did help. (Where is it now?) Far more likely is that a couple of market participants decided to clear some competition from the market by running it to ridiculous levels, and make a large amount of money along the way… and enlisted the Media’s help. A natural bull market presented a great opportunity to push the market to unnatural levels and then drop it like a stone. Fundamentals had no role. Not even the first Gulf War when the borders of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia fell, produced a similar event in terms of scale, though the market was overrun with fear. Even before the Algos started ripping markets up and down for fun and profit the game was on. The West Coast electricity market did a similar thing – by creating unscheduled maintenance that somebody had (personally) “scheduled”. $40 million+ people got their eyes gouged out for months on end, but it sure was fun for someone. A similar situation occurred (several times) in the German power market around the turn of the millenium. An American utility or marketer would simply buy every KwH in sight, along the curve, bar none, in a one or two hour space of time, until people who needed the physical power position to meet actual customer demand were forced to follow them, whereupon the relentless buyer would line up every bid in the market and try and unload everything in one shot. Many times it worked. But the US utility industry blew itself up in fraud, and the main German companies refused to trade with them after a while. Deregulation had happened – but the fall back for the near-monopoly German utilities was to say, “I don’t like you as a credit risk. So I can only trade in very, very small size with you.” The gamers were forced out. They killed their own game in the rush for personal glory. The charade of options expiry in the Gold market is similar. Get the market up, knowing that call buyers are the public and liked to go naked, and the put buyers are usually market makers trying to butterfly their position and get short the at-the-money strike in expiry. Just before expiry the market is whipsawed down. The public goes out worthless on the call side and the market makers (volume traders) get expired near or at their long strike (i.e. max. loss) and are forced out. Next time around – spreads are wider. It’s an attractive strategy if you can control the underlying for a few hours at the right time of the month. If you can’t – tough luck. Only a fool would trade in such a game. People should roll out weeks before expiry – but the public never does. They hang right on in there every time because the market gets so close to going in the money. (Like the Bbanks aren’t aware of this psychology!). The professionals have a name for these people: They’re called Screen Jockeys… and in case you didn’t know – it’s a term of derision. A similar situation now exists in that bastion of public interest – the stock market. Trading is simply impossible. Stop-losses can’t be held as orders because they will be used against anyone with a position. As related in M. Lewis’ latest book, the Chinese Walls that supposedly exist in the multiple platforms that trade a single stock should be properly considered as “Bullshit”. Charts are painted to flush people out. What passes for a market is now just a serious of raids up and down the flagpole to shake the hell out of its minor participants. If you aren’t equipped to play “chase the algos” (entry ticket c. $40 million for the technology and servers), your money will simply be taken. The market has for hundreds of years taken money from weak hands, but now anyone without a first class algo can be considered and proven as weak. Fundamental analysis will not help the small trader. It’s simply pointless to participate. Instead of tree-shaking… now the whole damn forest is being shaken. As explained in the book “A Pocketbook of Gold”, any individual with the slightest amount of margin will be destroyed by the hyper-over-leveraged banks that don’t have to mark to market, never have a margin call, and have a government guaranteed, taxpayer funded bailout. These are the NEW fundamentals. You want to participate on the other side of this, so call “trade”? If you do, you need serious help. Do you want to play with the take-down artists, the chart painters and algo-drive market-bashers? (To Mr Sinclair’s “haters” of the past fortnight please recall his relentlessly iterated warning to abandon all Gold trading and margin at $548 per ounce, and hold the core as insurance only.) The result is that retail has had it with the so-called “market”. Outflows are increasing steadily, while liquidity swamps financial institutions unwilling to do anything other than sit on the liquidity. The bail-out looks like a bail-in. Only idiots like the zero-return in a decade (and a lot less if properly numerated against Gold) pension funds are left. The suckers have woken up and are refusing to play. Computer driven markets go from awash with liquidity to zero liquidity and back again in seconds. It’s enough to make a schizophrenic look balanced. Risk is fully on, then fully off, then fully on again several times in a given day, soon to be in a given hour, minute, second, mille and then micro-second. Trade if you have a death wish only. As the public exits, the algos will now attack each other in a macabre pas de deux of death dance. Government, of course, is playing its part too in the death of the markets by destroying the value of fundamental analysis. The capitulation of FASB to a government/Fed dictated policy of suspending the assessment of fair value has, as its corollary, the suspension of even the possibility that ‘fair value’ can still, in fact BE determined. Since the government now determines market outcomes, reading Maoist “Wall Posters” is now all one has. (“If one knows the nuances, the walls tell all” was the nod for Deng Xio Peng’s political destruction. This is what we have been reduced to.) As if analysing Greenspan’s FedSpeak wasn’t enough to live through, we now must be scanning the horizon all day for the QE II, instead of analysing a company’s worth and prospects. Resistance may be futile, but participation is now idiocy. Money supply is viciously ramped up and then completely shut-off, at a whim, and with few but opaque methods for observation. When people are buying the stock market only because they envision a Bernanke money-printing induced melt-up, it’s time to leave. That is no reason to be in the marketplace, it is a reason to avoid it. Previous market participants are sick of trying to decide the level of deceit in Government statistics. No one can anticipate whimsical “on the hoof” policy (like occupying Iraq), so everyone is fearful of investing. Money is going to the mattress like a Spaniard living under Franco. Germans and other Europeans are rushing into the Swiss Franc in outright fear of what politicians might do next. The level of trust from the investing public has never been lower. Government won’t let Fundamentals play out, just like they refused to take a recession ten years ago. The Fed can trump all fundamentals until, of course, they can’t any longer, and they blow up everyone including themselves (i.e. sovereign default). When proper valuation is suspended for as long as possible and seemingly, hopefully, forever, one would be advised to spend their time building a nuclear resistant financial bunker, preferably lined with Gold. It could give a whole new meaning to the old adage that the “Fundamentals always win in the end”. In the new intonation, the emphasis is on the word “end”. An “end” that seems to be in the process of being succinctly arranged. In the search for absent fundamental indicators, “Shadow Stats” became preferred, but that only detracts from confidence. It does nothing to enhance it. Mr. Williams does not sit at the Fed or in Government. Most likely, it will be QE to infinity, because the disastrous outcome of a Treasury market implosion could be even more devastating than perpetuating a depression. QE is a government played trump card that destroys Fundamental analysis by moving the pricing numerator. Desperation is palpable. It’s why the Government is actively destroying any attempt at fundamental analysis. The sustaining of the smoke and mirrors game demands it. If Government continues to spend, they eventually go bust from debt. If they head down the austerity path, you’ll never have enough GDP to SERVICE the debt. They’re cornered. Devaluation de facto or de jure (i.e. default) is the only possible outcome short of waiting for inevitable systemic collapse along with the hyper-inflation which will give you about as much warning as a Tsunami on your visible horizon. As Mr. Sinclair has related, “Gold is financial High Ground, when a Global Tsunami hits.” Prepare accordingly. CIGA Pedro
  21. Gold Bears Are Wrong, Smart Money Isn't Selling http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets...7/2010/id/29327 Last week I was told that we were going to see more gold weakness in the days ahead because big money had to sell their positions. Folks, smart big-money traders don’t sell into weakness. These kinds of investors don’t think like the typical retail investor who's forever trying to avoid drawdowns. Big-money investors take positions based on fundamentals and then continually buy dips until the fundamentals reverse. The fundamentals haven’t reversed for gold so I’m confident in saying that smart money isn’t selling its gold, it's using this dip to accumulate. With that being said, there are times when big money will sell into the market and it's why technical analysis, as used by retail traders, often doesn’t work. They sell into the market to accumulate positions. Let me explain. When a large fund wants to buy, it can’t just simply start buying stock like you or I would. Doing so would run the market up, causing it to fill at higher and higher prices. Unlike the average retail trader, smart money attempts to buy into weakness and sell into strength (buy low, sell high). In order to buy the kind of size it needs without moving the market against itself, a large trader needs very liquid conditions. Ask yourself, when do those kind of conditions exist? They happen when markets break technical levels. If big money is selling it's because it's trying to push the market below a significant technical level so all the technicians will puke up their shares. By running an important technical level it can cause a ton of sell stops to activate, allowing it to accumulate a large position without moving the market against itself in the process. We saw this very thing happen in the oil market recently and also in February as gold bottomed. (Today, in early afternoon trading, Iamgold (IAG) is down 5.2%, Buenaventura (BVN) has fallen 4.9%, and Newmont Mining (NEM) is down more than 5%. On track for its lowest closing price in 3.5 months, Goldcorp (GG) is also down more than 5%.) Click to enlarge Click to enlarge Technical traders wrongly assume these breaks are continuation patterns but the reality is that very often they're just smart money “playing” the technical crowd so they can enter large positions. The key to watch for is an immediate reversal of a technical break. When that happens you know there was someone in the market buying when everyone else was selling. Nine times out of 10 it was smart money. At that moment everyone is jumping on the bear side for gold. Remember we saw this exact same sentiment in the stock market three weeks ago. I knew the bears were going to be wrong simply because the market was way too late in the intermediate cycle for there to be enough time left for a significant decline. The gold bears are going to be wrong also and for the exact same reason. It's just too late in the intermediate cycle for there to be enough time left for anything other than a minor decline. I'm now waiting and hoping for a break of the May pivot. I want to play that break, if it comes, like a smart money trader. That means I want to buy into the break instead of panic sell like most dumb money retail traders will invariably do. Click to enlarge The reason, of course, is that gold is still in a secular bull market. In bull markets you buy dips. Also, the dollar, with the break below 82 this morning, is starting to show signs that it's now in the clutches of the three-year cycle decline. Every Gold C-wave so far in this 10-year bull market has corresponded to a major leg down in the dollar. I'm confident this C-wave will inversely track the dollar’s move into that major cycle low due early next year. Sentiment wise, gold has now reached levels more bearish than at the February bottom. That means gold is at risk of running out of sellers. Finally, and most importantly, it's simply too late in the intermediate cycle for gold to have enough time for a significant drop. This is the 25th week of the cycle and the intermediate cycle rarely lasts more than 25 weeks. That puts the odds heavily in favor of a major bottom either sometime this week or next. And don't forget, gold is about to move into the strong demand season. Like clockwork, gold invariably puts in a major bottom in July or August before the run up into the strong fall season. The bears are going to be wrong again.
  22. Mark August 27th - 31st in your calenders as the low. Thin markets due to the London close plus future / option expiry dates
  23. I agree, the market will continue lower up until the end of August expiry dates. I would be looking at the bank holiday Monday in London, as a low point due to the thinner than normal markets. Physical supply will also be thinner on the ground during this period. Where GBP is going I am not so sure, certainly has had some strength in recent times, I dont believe this will be sustainable tho during october as the public sector cuts start to become clearer. I have a buyin point marked at £700 and below, but I really dont think physical will get that low especially when you factor in dealer spreads, these are sure to increase again as the market bottoms.
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