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dietcolaaddict

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  1. dietcolaaddict

    UK House prices: News & Views

    I wonder if this ratio may be a good tool for timing the bottom of the UK housing market. (trade all your oz's for a country estate then GF!) It peaked prior to both the 07 and 90 tops of the housing market. I might look into this more when I get some time.
  2. dietcolaaddict

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Yes, I eyeball between 100-200. The all time low is 80.6 (Q1 1983). The Gold : Number of UK Estate Agents ratio will certainly reach an all time high!
  3. dietcolaaddict

    UK House prices: News & Views

    A great day for UK property bears..... (denial phase amongst the sheeple must be about to end soon) Enjoy with a celebratory glass of wine tonight: http://uk.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20080828/tuk...my-fa6b408.html http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/art...ears/article.do Here's the nationwide house price: gold ratio for the UK. Now at 383.5 for the average house, from a peak of 695.4 (44.9 % drop). Anyone care to suggest how far this ratio may fall?
  4. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    Excellent chart - is it effectively a time plot of small investor (general public) distrust of the banking system against time? * There were lots of scare stories about banking systems failing with Y2K - and a lot of companies made money out of those fears by selling "Y2K compatible" solutions at >£100 a computer. *- given the limitations Steve has mentioned about supply/demand
  5. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    .
  6. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    Wow, thats a bullish response in gold and silver today.
  7. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    Here’s some more of my analysis of oil vs gold for the last eight years. This post is topical, as we go from what I see as the “gold winter season” (Mar-Aug) to a “gold summer season” (Sep-Feb) during the next week. Look how the gold-to-oil ratio varies between both seasons – both graphs normalized to the ratio on the first day of the “season” There is a clear (but gradual) mean downward trend from Mar-Aug and a clear mean upwards trend from Sept-Feb (mostly before Xmas). This pattern holds for most years, although there are exceptions. I’m wondering if we are nearing a bottom in the gold-to-oil ratio, which would suggest better prospects for gold in the next few months.
  8. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    Quite balanced article from the Independent on Sunday, although I disagree with the last paragraph, which forgets to mention how bleak the economy is at the moment. Julian Knight: Tread cautiously if travelling in the realms of gold http://www.independent.co.uk/money/invest-...old-906790.html
  9. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    HPCsoYESTERDAY, a good find! The comparisons between the 2006 and 2008 corrections are very spooky... * 80% of peak price at c. 150 days * gold-to-oil ratio bottoming (perhaps) at c. 110-130 days post-peak I've put my money where my mouth is and bought more physical - I'm guessing this is a bottom. It's also the best time to buy from a historical perspective as I've demonstrated in this thread before. For a third reason, I read Greenspan's quote last week as a coded message of further banking trouble ahead “Home prices in the US are likely to start to stabilize or touch bottom sometime in the first half of 2009 but prices could continue to drift lower through 2009 and beyond ”. My suspicion is that gold price has been engineered downwards recently so that the big boys can load up and hold physical in the economically testing times ahead. Speaking to the bullion dealers, it is clear that gold coin stocks in the UK are now very low. This forced me to eventually settle on ugly Krugs rather than my favoured Britannias – an unpatriotic but necessary compromise under current circumstances.
  10. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    Great info, I was wondering this just the other day. Mr Phellps is a member of the 1 oz club then. I've been away on business and then on holidays, I have only just caught up on the threads. One more big boy smackdown (Friday?) and then I reckon its Shorterz Shooting Season for a few months.
  11. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    Ladies and Gentlemen, stay patient. ‘Shorterz Shooting Season’ is only a few weeks away and they are going to be well-fed this year. Season starts on the glorious 25th of August –the historical optimal date for gold purchase over the last 10 years. The six best months of performance will soon lie ahead. Take the present now on offer at $900 (if you can, my funds are a few weeks away )
  12. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    Sharks are greatly mis-understood creatures. Like bears, they only require food intake once or twice a week. Bump into one after it has just eaten, and it will pay you no attention. However, encounter one after a fortnight of famine, and it will show you aggression in nature's purest form. As many property and market investors are about to see, the 2008 bear is very, very hungry.
  13. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    Wow, what a day to have my internet down at work. Look at the news on my home PC homepage, Yahoo UK. 5 seriously bear items. Meanwhile in other news......Shark found in Sydney swimming pool
  14. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    Yes, well phrased. As Steve points out, the market conditions are more positive than 2006. So I guess the similarity we are seeing is down to market machinery, habit and psychology. I'm reckoning late August onwards for the take-off, as my previous analysis showed the months after to be the optimum season for gold price gain, certainly in the last decade. However I'm biased - as that's my next buying opportunity.
  15. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    Here is the updated chart from my comparison of the gold price peaks in 2006 and 2008 (and their subsequent corrections). To recap, I have normalised both peak values (dated 12 May 2006 and 17 Mar 2008) as 100% price at the time point of day 50. The 2008 peak/correction is clearly less volatile, but its price at days 100-120 remains very similar to 2006. We want to see gold getting into the $950 price range soon to avoid this being a case of history repeating itself.
  16. This is an awesome thread that I wish I'd discovered sooner! Lots of excellent commentary and some great calls ahead of the event by many contributors. I have really enjoyed reading it through (although it’s been like watching the match highlights after knowing the final score). My first contribution is only anecdotal but my message is clear - panic has not set in yet and the UK public are still firmly in the denial phase of this bursting property bubble. I went on a trip back to my old research institute this week, in property-obsessed Oxford. I'm at that early 30s age where old acquaintances quickly interject into the conversation: 1 "Isn't it time you settled down and got married" 2 "Are you still renting or have you bought?" I sidestepped no.1 nicely, but used no.2 to probe what people currently think about the UK property market. This was a useful study population as they cover a wide demographic (near-min wage to 6 figure salaries) and remain unexposed to my views unlike my current social group or work colleagues. The general consensus was that this is a ‘housing blip’ not a ‘housing crash’ and that things will return to normal next year. This came from all of my ex-colleagues, including some senior staff who got into the student HMO form of BTL around the millennium are now experiencing negative cash flow and drops in capital. I heard several times that getting on the ladder as soon as possible is the way forward (“Weird that you choose to rent”) and that the best way to tackle the affordability issue is to go for an interest-only mortgage. (“Of course its not renting from the bank”). Most shockingly - one staff member was being congratulated at length on the recent purchase of a ground floor flat in the flood plain (which was underwater this time last year). Denial everywhere, and tough times ahead when reality finally dawns. The walk back to the station told the real story - a “for sale by auction” sign, an unfinished housing development with no builder activity (abandoned?) and estate agent windows with 10-15% falls from last year. If 10-15% is still denial phase, then the fear and despair stages are going to see massive drops
  17. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    Bigtbigt, I agree with your comments. I still see September as the most likely timing for the next leg up, based on the historical performance of gold over the last eight years (my graph enclosed). I'd be interested in your oil and gold time lag findings, and I'd be keen to do some analysis that expands on the results you post.
  18. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    Big smackdown possibility on NY opening, I feel. I'd love to see a nice V pattern over the next few hours to confirm growing bullishness in PMs
  19. dietcolaaddict

    Australia vs UK -- should I move?

    I nearly moved to Oz in 2006 (Perth). Here’s my experience of "not emigrating": I had a good friend who decided to quit her rat-race job in London and emigrate for the “lifestyle and climate” of Oz. I accompanied her to a recruitment fair at the Australian embassy one afternoon in 2005. The place was saturated with expensively-suited IT experts, of which my friend was one, all flashing their CVs and trying too hard to get attention at the employer and state government stalls. I was a bit scruffily dressed, had no CV and had made no preparations; I was expecting to kick my heels all afternoon, just being there for moral support. Anyway, it turned out that my profession (clinical scientist) was near the top of the Oz government’s “highly in demand” list and I ended up having the stall representatives queuing up to speak to me, much to the irritation of my friend and other attendees. Within a couple of months, I got three job offers from different hospitals with state-sponsored work visas, without even the request for an interview. The hospitals then started calling me up at work to enquire of my commitment, letting the cat out of the bag. I chose Perth and was very close to signing up when an unusual job was advertised in the UK. It was novel, challenging, exciting and a real chance to do something meaningful with my skills, but a long shot. The long shot worked, I got the job and stayed in the UK. What happened to me? I moved for the job and I have now lived in Milton Keynes for two years. The job remains a real opportunity, but its very hard work and a career risk if I don’t make it deliver over the next year or so. The exciting aspect has worn off as it has taken over my work-life balance. Working long hours in Milton Keynes is not an exciting way to be a single young professional in the UK. I will probably re-apply for an emigration visa if the next year doesn’t work out. My friend? She moved to Sydney. She got a nice tan and went running everyday after work along the famous harbour. But the job was office-based IT, and she ended up socializing with the office crowd and commuting in from the suburbs. She said there was little difference to her life in the UK, except perhaps for holidays during her annual leave. She has since returned to the UK. My message? Give things a try; it’s always better to have ‘loved and lost’ than to never have ‘loved’ in the first place. You can come back if it isn’t what you hoped. But when you make a big change in your life, make sure that the lifestyle or career progression you crave is actually obtainable – the world is increasingly global and it may just be more of the same.
  20. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    Great last few pages of commentary! New York opening time is certainly the time to gold-watch at the moment.
  21. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    I’m interested in the historical seasonality of gold price. I can’t find a good article, so have done my own research for this post. The fundamentals for gold remain very strong, but the market price is not (currently) playing ball with the fundamentals. So there is great potential for some ‘catch-up’ action in the near future, but when? This approach looks at the recent historical data in a scientific way. These two charts characterise this seasonal effect, and show a clear pattern. From the 1999 price dip (unfortunately known in the UK as the “Brown Bottom”) I have calculated the monthly fractional change in gold price (obtained from World Gold Council download files). I have then ranked annually the months in terms of best performance (value 1) to worst performance (value 12) within each year. Note that the middle rank value would be 6.5. This right chart shows a clear split between a below-average season of Mar-Aug and an above-average season of Sep-Feb. The trend is so clear that certain months are close to statistical significance at p<0.05 (Jul, Mar on the bad side, Sep on the good side). To put this another way, look at the left chart. It shows the averaged gain in value of $100 gold purchased at the start of the good season on 1 Sept. There is steady accumulation of value up to February when stagnation sets in. So in conclusion – seasonal trends of gold price over the last 9 years suggest that the sideways summer may end around late August.
  22. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    Welcome romans holiday. Great first post.
  23. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    The sideways summer continues....one step forward, one step back. With my amateur-analyst’s hat on, I have come up with these charts. They analyse a theory of mine, which others here have also noticed, that current gold price pattern (peak and fallback) may have some similarities to 2006. I’m trying to use this to judge when the sideways action might end (I’m frustrated at the moment as I cannot buy in this dip and am a few months away from new funds). My analysis has normalized the peak price from each year (on 12 May 2006 and 17 March 2008) as 100% and defined the peak price day as day 50. The second chart (days 1-100) shows that the 2006 peak value was much more of a spike than the 2008 peak. In 2008, values >75% peak were seen in the 50 day run-up while in 2008 values >85% were found. Post-peak, 2006 was more volatile (believe it or not!). Also notice in the post-peak stage how the 100 day prices are very similar for both years at c.85% of peak. Things could go either way from here…… The first chart (days 1-400) shows the same analysis up to day 400 – day 400 was when the 2006 peak price (100%) was surpassed. If gold slides to 80% ish of peak in the next few weeks (c. $800), then we may be replicating 2006 over again, and it may a long drawn-out recovery as per 2006. If gold holds above 90% (c. $900) then things look more optimistic. Best wishes for the weekend. Any comments or critique are, as always, welcome. Data source : world gold council , daily London pm fix http://www.gold.org/deliver.php?file=/valu...s/web_daily.xls
  24. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    A great day for gold and silver!! There are great scaremongering stories of oil price crisis leading the BBC evening news (but apparently it's concerns over relations between Israel and Iran, not the weak dollar ) Gold and silver still need careful nursing and observation for a while yet though. This is what I prescribe to keep prices heading upwards for the rest of 2008........
  25. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    PMs all on Viagra today. Up, up and away.
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