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dietcolaaddict

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Everything posted by dietcolaaddict

  1. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    I'd love to join you if I had the money right now. My next gold buying opportunity is going to be late August. Alas I think the sub-$900 (and sub-$950) boats will have sailed by then.
  2. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    thanks Steve! That's also the heart rate monitor readout of the new Bradford&Bingley chairman while first viewing their loan book!
  3. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    Does anyone have an opinion of the quality of analysis on marketoracle.co.uk? They publish quite a lot on commodities and do make bold financial predictions which seem well researched. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Topic3.html
  4. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    I see gold as an insurance and an inflation hedge. But if your aim is to buy a house in the UK, its a handy way of building up a deposit given the housing/finance conditions likely over the next few years. (for the record, my plan is to emigrate the UK)
  5. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    A quick calculation.....the result makes sense with the consensus of the board so I though this worth sharing..... Enclosed is a chart projecting UK average house prices (in £) into the future. The quarterly percentage drops are equal to those of the early 1990s crash (RPI at 4.2% factored in) As you can see, nominal house prices bottom at around £110,000 in 2014 assuming the same crash kinetics (it may well be worse this time). Assume gold price of $1650 by then (good consensus of that as a long term target). Assume 1.8 dollars to the pound (my personal opinion, I think the pound will weaken even more horribly than the dollar long term). 2014 UK average house price in Troy oz gold: 110,000 / (1650/1.8) = 120 oz 120 troy ounces is close to the 100 oz historical value mentioned by a few veterans on here, such as Goldfinger.
  6. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    Old news, and not very surprising to those in the UK, but Northern Rock 2 is now imminent. http://uk.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20080601/tts...ey-a8bf950.html Monday's update from Bradford and Bingley, Britain's largest buy-to-let mortgage lender is likely to warn on 2008 profits, rekindling concerns about short-term prospects for the bank and the wider UK mortgage market amid rising arrears and bad debts. "We can confirm that, due to a serious cardiovascular condition, Steven Crawshaw is stepping down as chief executive with immediate effect," the bank said in a statement. Rats fleeing the sinking ship. While Bradford and Bingley is a global stickleback, who knows what other dominoes it will knock over as it falls. PS Good to see you back Marceau!
  7. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    Miss World Miss Canada Miss Clacton-on-sea (reserve)
  8. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    High oil prices, high food prices, rising inflation and house price falls are all mentioned in the first 10 minutes of BBC Question time! The UK public are awake. The electorate, through necessity, are becoming more and more interested in economics. "Commodity bubble" or "Extra demand from china", and "peak oil", already introduced to the debate by the invited members of the public. Now why is gold falling in price?????
  9. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    There's better experts around here than myself but here is a few starters, from my experiences with coins (anyone have a different experience, please let me know, buying coins can be a lonely experience): +Gold coins have a lower dealer spread than silver coins and are also VAT exempt upon purchase. +Silver price is more volatile than gold - risk vs benefit according to your personal circumstances. +Hiding £5k or £10k of gold bullion in your house is easy, the same amount of silver is less so. +You can sell your gold coins for circa spot value, but you buy them at a coin premium: Krugerrands have the lowest coin premium but are butt ugly if aesthetics is your thing. Smaller coins (1/2, 1/10 oz etc.) have a higher coin premium. +Britannias and Sovereigns are very pretty and are also UK legal tender so are exempt from Capital Gains tax, means-tested declarations of income and savings, border customs declarations (within limits), inland revenue notification by a bullion dealer below 10K etc. etc. +Krugs, Brits and Sovs are 22 carat gold, and are tough and knock resistant. 24 carat coins (e.g. .9999 Canadian maple) are really soft and easy to scratch or worse carry the risk of being purchased in a scratched or damaged state by a novice. This reduces their value. +New edition coins (i.e. 2008) carry a higher coin premium on purchase because of collector demand, but this counts for little on selling them back to the dealer who will only offer around spot. +Dealers like you to keep your receipts of old purchases. Knowing a dealer face to face can get you a better deal (i.e. older edition coins at less premium)
  10. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    Dr Bubb, I'm afraid I have no expertise in hosting or websites to assit with this, but I would pay this charge if it kept the site up and running... One of the worst gold charts I've ever seen... flatline - plunge on NY opening - flatline - plunge on LSE opening
  11. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    Lets see what happens for the rest of the day. If gold creeps back up till close, I would see it as an encouraging sign for the weeks ahead.
  12. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    Ologhai Jones and notanewmember, I take your points. Perhaps the public do not share the same fascination with gold than I have, they are mearly motivated by the monetary value of a competition prize. Still I like the old photos which get my memory going.... Gold has got out of the right side of bed this morning.....lets hope this holds for the rest of the week. Todays upward move is in gold and silver, Pt and Pd are not continuing their recent climb.
  13. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    Yes, this will be a great indicator of the public mania phase. I think these types of competitions are highly likely - gold captures the public's imagination like little else. And if people get into that "Its price always goes up" mindset the marketing effect will be double. I remember when I was a child - mid 1980's - the UK confectioner Cadbury's ran a competition hiding 10 or so solid gold eggs in the UK countryside, with each location a solution to a riddle (you had to eat XX chocolate bars to get the riddle book). This was so successful that people went treasure hunting in all sorts of places and the National Trust was complaining of criminal damage to UK heritage sites. When the Daily Mail and Daily Express start ramping gold (the Daily Express is still ramping UK property BTW) its time to start thinking about an exit strategy and another undervalued sector to place the savings.
  14. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    The UK Mainstream Press have the same concerns about official inflation figures. The Daily Express and Daily Mail both now update a cost of living index http://www.express.co.uk/costoflivingindex "The Government tells us that annual inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index, is 2.5 per cent. But the reality is that prices of the most vital goods and services have been SOARING way beyond this level and show no sign of slowing." http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/arti...d=1770&ct=5 "The truth about soaring prices: Food costs are rising at 15.5 per cent a year, according to the Mail's index The true, devastating scale of rising prices is revealed today - by the new Daily Mail Cost of Living Index. It shows that families are having to find more than £100 a month extra this year to cope with increases in the cost of food, heat, light and transport." Many people scoff at these two UK papers, but I take their message (if not content) very seriously. They do print a load of rubbish most of the time and are obsessed with celebrity, Princess Diana etc. but the typical floating voter who holds the real balance of power in the UK reads these rags not The Times or more respected publications. The rising cost of living is becoming a big issue in the UK. Inflating our economic problems away is not going to go unnoticed with the electorate.
  15. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    The May gold investment and trading thread asks "Has Gold found a bottom at $850 per ounce?" Just eyeballing this chart of 3-month Au, Ag, Pt and Pd shows it has, and that the date of May 1st was the recent bottom not just for gold, but for all PMs. Platinum and Palladium have thereafter shown a good recovery, with gold and silver showing dithering upwards movement. In the next week, I'm looking to see if gold and silver follow the pattern of platinum and palladium with a convincing move upwards. PMs starting to recover from the "Ides of March (and April)" ? I do hope so.
  16. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    A big week ahead for the price of gold folks - are we going to see steady recovery towards $900+ or a re-test of the lows? PMs could really do with another Bear Stearns-style bombshell sometime soon to help the market make its mind up
  17. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    "The top US equity manager Francois Mouté believes the gold price should be 16 times the price of a barrel of oil and on a par with the price of platinum" Mouté is the chairman of Neuflize Private Assets, a subsidiary of Fortis Investments. He is the top ranked US equity manager in Europe over time periods of three months, one year, three years and five years. http://www.citywire.co.uk/personal/-/news/....aspx?ID=302771
  18. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    Thanks for the good research and the clear explanation, ChumpusRex And welcome !!!
  19. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    That's very similar to the targets I'm hoping for over the next year or two. As a brit, I'm also thinking that $:£ may move back to about 1.7-1.8:1 in that time frame as the UK economy really starts to go down the toilet bigtime. On a separate OT note, I wrapped off the bank holiday weekend with a James Bond movie night with some mates. Laughed my a$$ off the whole way through Goldfinger - they just dont make movie villains and scripts like that anymore!! And boy was $1 million a lot of more good delivery bars in those days!!!!! Can anyone with expertise comment on the accuracy of the plot ? (I'm a bit nerdy when it comes to science ) Surely if an atomic device went off in Fort Knox, contaminating the US gold reserve with radioisotope, any iodine-131 contaminant could simply be removed by just smelting the affected gold once again?
  20. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    Hi Wren you are right, and until I started learning at places like this , I was very much a Joe Public in my thoughts on house prices only going up, how to invest money, not appreciating currency exchange and inflation on the real value of savings etc. (I have very much still to learn). I can see that Joe Public might have little influence over the global spot price. Even at the mania stage when everyone in your workplace is buying gold. There are big players involved, as the last few days have shown. But if you hold physical, Joe Public affects the liquidity of your PM investment. But have you ever gone to the office of ATS Bullion, for example? I reckon they would struggle to accomodate a queue of over 10 people. When the day to offload PM comes, say through a catastrophic event (9/11) etc., it will be a line of Joe Publics with a half-krugger each, that will extend the queue down to Trafalgar Square and stop you offloading.
  21. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    I've learnt a lot about gold+silver this week (I'm definitely holding onto my physical gold for the next year or two plus regardless). This volatility is survivable for me (40% savings in PMs, bought in over time - including recently - to an average $930) and I’m still convinced by the long term arguments. But I think Joe Public will be scared off by this correction, especially given its proximity to the smashing of the $1000 barrier. I don’t expect any more “Invest in gold” articles in the press for a while that’s for sure.
  22. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    $940 spot gold is getting a thorough testing in New York this afternoon!! Hang in there to the bell my old son!!! In order to comply with EU Health and Safety Regulations, products with a high category of risk must only be sold in tandem with appropriate Personal Protective Equipment (PPE). I must therefore advise all BNTA dealers, as of today, to issue a free pair of disposable underpants with every purchase of 1 oz gold or 1 kg silver.
  23. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    Check out this image courtesy of the Daily Mail - the favourite newspaper of every UK amateur-BTL-invester.... I am convinced we are now entering the public awareness phase of the gold bull run
  24. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    It's going to be an interesting week!!! I'm hopeless at predicting numbers but this one's a dead cert: 100 pages by Tuesday
  25. dietcolaaddict

    GOLD

    Wow this is amazing but I'm getting worried at the verticalness of this on kitco..... As Shakespeare said : "Proceed wisely and slow; they stumble that run fast." Romeo and Juliet II, iii, 94 Introduction
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