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dietcolaaddict

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Posts posted by dietcolaaddict


  1. So although the swapping has been friutful in this bull market so far at some point the swappers who swap at say 48 or 50 (which has been good so far) will get caught out. E.g. the ratio goes to say 48:1 and silver owners swap for gold, but the ratio continues to drop which one day it will have to if it is ever to reach 20:1. If that happens they would have been better off not swapping as silver does a Mars shot while gold does only a Moon shot.

     

    :) Thanks wren, good point.

    I feel an evening of Excel lies ahead sometime looking at the G-to-S ratio and optimal historical exit/entry points

     

    Erm, I can do 8 Bob. "Two wreck"

     

    :lol: Sorry azazel, but Bubb and Steve in 'Dictionary Corner' have disallowed it for being two words.

    Thus, it remains a 6-letter day.


  2. right I am obviously not completely understanding the gold:silver ratio then. I though you would wait for silver to be a lot higher in price terms first, or does this just depend on what you bought in at & what your silver:gold split is ?

     

    so when the silver ratio is at its lowest, that's the best time to sell your silver ? am I understanding this chart below correctly ?

    so that huge spike in '79 was when the pos shot through the roof for a short time ? then you would either buy another hard asset with the currency of your choice, or buy back into gold then ?

     

    edited - I know GF has been talking a lot about this lately.

     

    GSR-SM.gif

     

    Hi GOM

     

    An old chart of mine - sorry it is not updated for the last 6 months or so - but I think this sums up my thinking

     

    I'm not so sure the price of the metals matters much, especially if you are just accumulating PMs for a future purchase (from memory, I think a house is your plan). Thinking about this with respect to my circumstances, a house will be c. $100 oz gold, a new career (medical school) about $30 oz. I'm simply using the gold-to-silver ratio as a way to get extra ounces on the way to these targets than if I converted my monthly savings to gold straight off.

     

    2qir01w.png

     

    + Notice that the ratio spends a lot of time at 50-55 - it is the largest bin size so there is no need to panic a decision to swap silver for gold in this ratio range. However, the bins below 50 are very small in size, so if the ratio falls below 50, it is likely that a spike is occuring, and so a quick decision is needed to swap.

     

    + Also - and a seperate issue I am still thinking about - I'd rather hold gold than silver during the 'April - August' doldrums as it has more of a floor (especially now China appear to be hoovering up gold every time there is a significant dip) . Silver seems to have a really low floor (around $5, where I believe it becomes unworthwhile to produce for miners), so it is more risky to hold silver during the seasonal doldrums than gold. I need to think this through more, it remains just a theory at the moment, any thoughts welcome.


  3. Still waiting to see if Mr Smackdown makes an unwelcome late appearence.....

     

    In the meantime...

     

    China’s insatiable appetite for gold underpins market

    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/worl...icle6829932.ece

     

    Article begins:

    China is underpinning the gold market with a surge in demand from newly rich Chinese consumers for jewellery and gold bars and official encouragement for private purchases of precious metals.

     

    The recent surge in the price of bullion to $1,000 per ounce is occurring during a slump in demand for gold jewellery in every country except China.

     

    While consumers in traditional gold-buying countries, such as India, have kept a tight grip on their purses because of high prices, a poor monsoon and the recession, Chinese consumers are following their central bank and hoarding the yellow metal.


  4. OK, here are the kitco charts for the two past attempts on $1000:

     

    5vt98m.jpg

     

    Note that this year's attempt is at the start, rather than the end, of the annual gold season.

     

    I see this as a more progressive move on $1000 - in March 2008 the London fix was >$1020 shortly after crossing the $1000 barrier, for example. We are now trading in a far narrower range around the magic barrier.


  5. Here is a signal that the bull trap in UK house prices is close to an end!

     

    Former maths teachers sell their property empire as prices creep up

    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/pro...icle6819301.ece

     

    Fergus and Judith Wilson, 793rd on The Sunday Times Rich List this year with a combined value of £70 million, have decided to call it a day after almost 20 years of property investing.

     

    At their peak they owned about 900 houses but their portfolio has been badly hit by the downturn, falling from an estimated value of £180 million early last year.

     

    They have now decided to put the whole lot on the market to take advantage of a recent rise in house prices in Ashford, Kent. Mr Wilson said that they had already received a number of approaches from investors wanting to buy the whole portfolio, including a consortium of professional footballers and funds from Russia and the Far East.


  6. OK, I have a dilemma here - any advice appreciated.

     

    I'm heavily invested in gold and silver + a little 'flirtation' position in platinum (total 85% of savings). Things look bullish for the months ahead in PMs and August is not the time to sell. However, I have a lot of life changes in the months ahead and need to liquidate some cash to pay for them all.

     

    Am I best to use my remaining cash (£) savings (15%) to do this, or to sell off some PMs and keep my cash emergency fund?

    I feel a little uncomfortable having all my eggs in one basket and being 100% PMs, even if only for a few months.

     

    Thanks everyone for your thoughts. I may have to sell some of my Au+Ag here, but will delay as long as possible to catch as much seasonal gain as I can.

     

    The reason I am 85% PMs may be a little unusual and worth explaining (although I am bullish long term on PMs, negative on sterling and heavily influenced by the UK houseprice-to-gold ratio work of Goldfinger). I am attracted to a rarely discussed benefit of gold in bullion form - it allows you to avoid government methods of means testing which only seem to disincentivize the act of 'saving for a rainy day'. Any money kept in shares and cash accounts for bad times is simply counted against you in the UK system no matter how much tax and National Insurance you have paid over the years (in the belief this will provide a short-term safety net).

     

    Two scenarios I have had to plan for in recent years:

     

    Redundancy - I have poor job security - UK government would deny me benefits until I had eaten through all but £6k of savings/assets. Gold is an untraceable asset in this circumstance that will preserve hard earned savings made from putting aside some of my wage and living prudently within my means.

    Retraining - I have thought a lot about a switch in career - UK government would expect me to fund my own fees from my savings/assets rather than pay any costs themselves, once more removing the incentive to save for this circumstance through cash or shares.

     

     

     


  7.  

    OK, I have a dilemma here - any advice appreciated.

     

    I'm heavily invested in gold and silver + a little 'flirtation' position in platinum (total 85% of savings). Things look bullish for the months ahead in PMs and August is not the time to sell. However, I have a lot of life changes in the months ahead and need to liquidate some cash to pay for them all.

     

    Am I best to use my remaining cash (£) savings (15%) to do this, or to sell off some PMs and keep my cash emergency fund?

    I feel a little uncomfortable having all my eggs in one basket and being 100% PMs, even if only for a few months.

     

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