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HPCsoYESTERDAY

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Everything posted by HPCsoYESTERDAY

  1. following silver in gbp: bull still on until the monthly trend says otherwise: and if it's broken, what then? this perhaps:
  2. from here ../.. i hope there is enough capacity within the model to allow for some flexibility. the most specific 'test' will come this xmas/new year: i feel far more confident with this target than trying to put some figure on a bottom; i cannot help but feel that some bottom chasers ( ) are going to get their arses ripped on this one. I don't think the risks to physical buyers will be that great but those trying to trade this (eventual) turn on leverage must be either geniuses / fools / insiders* *delete as appropriate For instance, the Andrew Maguire bottom in early 2010 would have wrongfooted many leverage traders Therefore, is it not hypocritical for me to say that i feel more confident with the new year $50 call? Well my answer is no (unsurprisingly!) and this is my reasoning; predicting the turn here is where the difficulty lies - once the turn is in and confirmed properly (e.g. having been tested at least once, maybe twice / or relatively close enough to constitute a test), the bulls should return slowly and then quickly as the price rises gain momentum. At this point, a $50 target in January will hopefully seem a 'given'. Furthermore, if it is within 10% of that target, it will not matter one jot as the flexibility in the model should allow for it*. Also, thereafter the call of a new high in 16 months is where perhaps the most variation lies: So to sum up - The model will have clearly failed if there is no turnaround this summer / autumn, and at this point the 8 & 16 month projections will be dead anyway. *fine-tuning of the model is an on-going process, the nearer you are to the target the more precise you can be edit - with hindsight maybe the A.Maguire was not the best example to use edit 2 - i am open to suggestion on what is considered an acceptable error of margin to test this pattern
  3. HPCsoYESTERDAY

    SILVER

    this was perhaps the most amazing call ever to grace these boards *(pix's gold 'lines' coming a close second) when the sideways move out of the trendline suggested that 35:1 was not going to happen, i must admit i had my doubts (and thought some sort of slower descending channel was emerging). I guess the problem with TA sometimes is that you have to trust your longer view (chart analysis) over shorter term noise. Sometimes, just 'saying what you see' in the immediate term can prove misleading as this video demonstrates (apologies in advance for 'lowering the tone!') http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7UA-egInRi0 *edit
  4. HPCsoYESTERDAY

    SILVER

    (Please note this model is now work in progress, so expect revision and updates as appropriate) Hypothesis: The silver price pattern is replicating that of palladium. Testing: The testing of this hypothesis will occur in real time as we follow the action in the price of silver. Analysis: The palladium price 'model' as displayed above has certain key points (a-g) that have either happened with silver (a-d) or that may occur in the future (e-g). (a-d): It took palladium approx. 18 months to move from the 08 crash bottom to the intermediate high (d). The move was approx. 250% It took silver approx. 29 months to move from the 08 crash bottom to move to the intermediate high (d). The move was approx. 400% Intermediate Conclusion: In terms of the model time-line, silver is replicating palladium by a factor of x 1.6. In terms of price, silver is replicating palladium by a factor of (have you guessed it yet) 1.6. Going forward (current testing): It took palladium 10 months to go move from the intermediate high (d) to the current high (g). Therefore, if the model is viable, silver will hit a new high in 16 months. How to test this going forward: First and foremost, if silver is replicating the action in palladium, we need to see a h&s pattern avoided in this consolidation period. Furthermore, it took palladium approx. 5 months after the intermediate high to get back to the same level. This would equate to the silver price being approx. $50, 8 months from now. Possible variation within the model: If the model holds true, it should be noted that volatility in the silver price (esp. on the final move up to 'g') can result in a quicker move to the trendline high 'g' which should be treated as a constant for the sake of this model.
  5. (Please note this model is now work in progress, so expect revision and updates as appropriate) Hypothesis: The silver price pattern is replicating that of palladium. Testing: The testing of this hypothesis will occur in real time as we follow the action in the price of silver. Analysis: The palladium price 'model' as displayed above has certain key points (a-g) that have either happened with silver (a-d) or that may occur in the future (e-g). (a-d): It took palladium approx. 18 months to move from the 08 crash bottom to the intermediate high (d). The move was approx. 250% It took silver approx. 29 months to move from the 08 crash bottom to move to the intermediate high (d). The move was approx. 400% Intermediate Conclusion: In terms of the model time-line, silver is replicating palladium by a factor of x 1.6. In terms of price, silver is replicating palladium by a factor of (have you guessed it yet) 1.6. Going forward (current testing): It took palladium 10 months to go move from the intermediate high (d) to the current high (g). Therefore, if the model is viable, silver will hit a new high in 16 months. How to test this going forward: First and foremost, if silver is replicating the action in palladium, we need to see a h&s pattern avoided in this consolidation period. Furthermore, it took palladium approx. 5 months after the intermediate high to get back to the same level. This would equate to the silver price being approx. $50, 8 months from now. Possible variation within the model: If the model holds true, it should be noted that volatility in the silver price (esp. on the final move up to 'g') can result in a quicker move to the trendline high 'g' which should be treated as a constant for the sake of this model.
  6. HPCsoYESTERDAY

    The Best of Youtube - Music

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMETa77dUrg http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZ-O7CaGTSk
  7. HPCsoYESTERDAY

    The Best of Youtube - Music

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b6T7obT3lmg http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-Yk4gW-dIU
  8. HPCsoYESTERDAY

    SILVER

    (taken from here) a – confined to an upward channel b – breakout of channel resistance c – testing channel exterior as support d – rising fast and ultimately too quickly e – violent move down and ultimately re-testing channel exterior as support f – and the bulls have it g – hitting long-term trendline resistance (see previous charts in original thread for palladium) if the pattern is replicating and as ag appears to moving at a slower pace than pd, it makes sense that ag's moves are bigger (amplified) edit - needed to adjust ag chart
  9. please note - the following has been lifted from here (for the sake of references) .../... I believe I am correct in saying that the speed with which silver has declined recently has not been seen in this current bull (e.g. Since 2002) following a significant peak (http://www.24knews.com/viewtopic.php?p=12287#p12287). Having already looked at the possibility of a '2006' type correction (http://www.24knews.com/viewtopic.php?p=12123#p12123), I think we can ignore the comparisons now as that peak to trough move took 6 weeks and was approx. 1/3 correction (ditto 2004). Looking at the Ag price today, I note that it went below $34, so in two weeks we have already corrected approx. 1/3 ($49+ to $33+). So what next, well, I would suggest that we have not seen the bottom (of this current move) yet, but given the abnormality of the speed down already, who knows! 2004 & 2006 corrections: To recap then, I don't think this correction is similar to 2004 or 2006 and add to that the Q1 2008 & Q3 2008 corrections for good measure. So where can we draw similar patterns? Hmm, well I think I have found one, and it's not silver – it's palladium. And it's recent too. The premise here is twofold; primarily, the bull run (2009-2010) in palladium displays similarities to the silver bull run (2009-2011) and secondly, that palladium is somehow acting as a precious metals canary (as per this thread title). For the sake of this study, I want to focus on the primary reason stated above (the secondary reason – we can leave for another day.) Take a look at the action in palladium since the early 09 lows: a – confined to an upward channel b – breakout of channel resistance c – testing channel exterior as support d – rising fast and ultimately too quickly e – violent move down and ultimately re-testing channel exterior as support f – and the bulls have it g – hitting long-term trendline resistance (see previous charts in this thread for palladium) Now take a look at silver: Going forward, I would say that if silver is to replicate the action in palladium, silver needs to avoid a head and shoulders type pattern in this consolidation period. Furthermore, regarding 'g' (hitting long-term resistance), I would be happy with the logarithmic trendline for now! (http://www.24knews.com/viewtopic.php?p=12244#p12244)
  10. nat.gas being pulled down by everything else - gotta say i'm tempted
  11. well, if are you wrong once you might as well keep the losing streak going right? yep - i guess like a gambler who has already lost on the first race, i might as well keep going with this one until my luck changes! but, there is more to it than that - i just cannot see sterling going to parity with the euro anytime soon (though, I respect that if it happens, it pretty much doesn't matter whether i can see it or not) the problem i have with the parity (and beyond) call is twofold: fundamentals and history fundamentals - the dollar decline and euro strength is masking a lot of the fundamental problems with the euro. the irish 'sweep it under the carpet' approach will only work for so long before we have Greece Mk. 2. Thereafter, we have italy and the biggie spain waiting in the wings. Take a look at these 10year bond yields and ask yourself are the problems fixed? Now, this isn't a $usd is great thread, usd, sterling, euro etc. all have their problems and the true nature of these problems (currency debasement) is only shown when plotted against the king of currencies, gold. so, is sterling any better or worse than the euro, neither in my opinion and hence do not see any reason for greater widening going forward. history - sterling and the euro usually move in a similar fashion against the usd. however, this is not always the case; such as the period between 93 & 97 (deutschmark) and now since 2008. Now, (and this is the kicker for me) - the damage to sterling has already been done in 2008, the gap will (eventually) get smaller. Similarly, the big damage previously occurred in 1993 and finally closed up in 1997: What of the recent euro breakout vs. sterling? well, i think i have learnt my lesson charting currencies, short-termism is far too dangerous to chart and TA will either work or not. Let's take a closer look at two instances of euro breakout against sterling (a & : in both instances, the breakouts occurred as resistance was broken, yet what caused the massive drop down in 1997? = fundamentals. The 'idea' of a one size fits all currency rather than the stronger deutschmark became reality (transition period). Fundamentals will 'out' again, as the problems of the euro cannot be ignored anymore. This is my best guess at what's going to happen and it's important to compare and contrast with the previous chart* *but i reserve the right to be 'wrong' (again!)
  12. HPCsoYESTERDAY

    SILVER

    thanks, it's nice when the charts work. However, i think i should stick to metals because the charts i did on eur/gbp, are looking a bit err., wrong! (though, i am going to stick with the overal direction) lesson learned = stick away from fiat vs. fiat. re. physical costs, i note what you say re. eagles, so i have included phillies as well (anyone can add to this with prices from other sources) all price ex. vat and no postage costs added!! (as of 5 mins ago) Phillie price (gbp) / Eagle price (gbp) 25.09 (cid) / 27.14 (cid) 25.41 (kitco) / 25.80 (kitco)
  13. HPCsoYESTERDAY

    SILVER

    update (with adjustments) well done pix on recognising the andrews pitchfork and producing an excellent chart worthy of the midas report. ps - the cheaper the physical price the better! we should start monitoring the cost of a physical coin like an eagle and keep updating it here.......
  14. log silver $us gridlines
  15. HPCsoYESTERDAY

    SILVER

    volatility grows before she blows* *short-term bulls vs bears - no winner as yet
  16. a quick look again at 2006:
  17. so is silver putting in an intermediate top? looking at the log scale graphs, it is still too early to tell of course but assuming silver is putting in an intermediate top how will this look on the monthly charts? at present, i am drawn to make comparissons with the 2006 intermediate top where the volatility was massive so having made the assumption that silver is putting in an intermediate top, where are the next levels of support? on a very short time scale (daily) this would be my best guess whereas, looking further out, this weekly tried and tested support could come into play in the months ahead however, the bottom line here is to expect volatilty and hence use caution if trading - the swings in the 2006 interm top took place over a 5 week period and within a 30% price range!!!!!!
  18. HPCsoYESTERDAY

    The Best of Youtube - Music

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_b7Y16t3zw http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJR62vsAg-0
  19. HPCsoYESTERDAY

    SILVER

    ok we all know this would have got pride of place on 321gold at the mo, but interesting reading nevertherless http://www.321gold.com/editorials/taylor_m/taylor_m_042511.html
  20. HPCsoYESTERDAY

    The Best of Youtube - Music

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EjOGxL74TFU
  21. HPCsoYESTERDAY

    The Best of Youtube - Music

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0bgHvERSyI
  22. HPCsoYESTERDAY

    The Best of Youtube - Music

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=97ptTRXB43o http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6-dvpJcKH4
  23. CIGA asked: “DA it would be very helpful to me if you could explain fundamentally why this pattern may play out?” in response to a chart posted by myself on cg's - GBP: 'imminent downleg and how to profit from it' thread. The following chart is a long term look at GBP/USD vs. EUR/USD (or presumably Deutschmark /usd pre 1999). As can be seen, the relationship between sterling & the Euro vs. the usd was broadly similar; discrepancies such as the period between 1992-98 were followed by similarities again (e.g. 1999-2007). Then in 2008, the Euro gained strength against the pound, which was amplified in the period following the 3rd quarter crash. As of today this wide disparity still exists which is interesting when you consider that many commodities have risen back to (or exceeded) their pre-2008 crash prices. The following chart is a long term look at Euro vs. usd: As can be seen, an argument can be made for a 'fair-value' band between (approx.) 1.10 – 1.45. In 2008 (before the 3rd Quarter 2008 crash), Euro strength broke through this band to new highs of 1.60 (approx.). Since then it has moved down in waves (wedge formation shown) and interestingly has fallen below an upward trendline support. Therefore, before looking at the shorter term chart I am already of opinion that the £ is fair value against the $USD and marginally undervalued against the Euro. The following chart is a variation of the one I posted on cg's thread: As stated previously, given the fact that I am of the opinion that Sterling is undervalued against the Euro, I am looking slow the cyclic pattern continuing (since 2009) of the pound slowly strengthening over time. Fundamentally speaking, we are comparing variations of Fiat money here and hence when we compare their 'cost' against Gold and (even better) Silver, we see an entirely different picture of paper money weakness throughout (post 2002). Similarly, why from a fundamental viewpoint is the Euro so much better than Sterling? Given the troubles of the PIIGS (we still have not seen Ireland default yet) and the spectacle of the Spanish crisis unfolding, unless we see a two-tier Euro (Club-Med & Eire vs. the Nordic contingent) or something similar, I don't see why that particular brand of fiat is any better (or worse) than Sterling.
  24. HPCsoYESTERDAY

    The Best of Youtube - Music

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GDT6Ua_Rif0
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