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HPCsoYESTERDAY

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Posts posted by HPCsoYESTERDAY


  1. Therte seem to be a lot of people buying old pre 1920 silver british coins on ebay, Are people buying them as a cheep way into silver?

    Well nor so cheep to tell you all the truth.

    Take a look. There are some job lots going for quite an amount. Are people buying them to scrap ?

     

    pre 20 bundles will carry some numismatic premium dependent on the overall quality

     

    I have found that there is virtually no premium on pre 47 bundles and they do track spot quite consistently (obviously with some discrepancy +/- during times of high volatility)

     

    the thing about pre 47 is that there are a lot of kilo lots week in week out, one argument i have heard against by 50% coins is that there will be an additional cost necessary if the silver needed to be extracted; but frankly this makes no sense (yet) because the scarcity of silver would have to be extreme for this to be even considered.

     

    pre 47 coins carry no numismatic premium (with a few rare examples of course), but this will not always be the case


  2. i'm still looking for an ass fallout, as you put it. the rally has stalled and we've been churning here for the last week. this implies, i think, that another move is coming. up or down? given the trend is down, i am putting my chips in that direction. we'll see.

     

    i'm keeping my eye (now belatedly) on ag/gbp

     

    agsterlinglog.gif


  3. Hope it falls even more. More can be bought. Now that the wife is also on board we are going OTT in physical purchases. Somedays I feel like I should become Mr T.

     

    that would be the old Mr.T then (giving up wearing gold apparently)

     

     

    Television actor Mr T pities the victims of Hurricane Katrina so much, he has decided to give up wearing the bling he is famous for as a mark of respect.

     

    The former A-Team star arrived in London without his signature gold accessories and said he had given them up out of respect for the lives devastated by the storm.

     

    He explained: "As a Christian, when I saw other people lose their lives and their land and property... I felt that it would be a sin before God for me to continue wearing my gold.

     

    "I felt it would be unnecessary and disrespectful to the people who lost everything, so I stopped wearing my gold."

     

    Mr T On Giving Up Gold

     

    http://news.sky.com/home/showbiz-news/article/15229268


  4. looked at the silver chart today. trying to make sense of the correction by looking at it logarithmically....

     

    it looks to me that (so far) we are experiencing a 2006 type pull back and not 2008. the 2006 move that followed the 'cup' line, fell back approx 80% before tootling along again:

     

    2006_ag_correction-1.gif

     

     

    now look at 2011:

     

    2011_ag_correction-1.gif

     

     

    here's a chart with 2008 & 2004 as well:

     

    bull-breakers.gif

     

     

    here's a follow up to that last chart:

     

    bull-breakersii.gif

     

    what constitutes an ass fallout? well i would say where the complete bull move is wiped out e.g. 2008


  5. too late to edit above, but i should have added this.....

     

    This chart encapsulates the complete gold bull since Browns bottom; the mirror image log pattern is coming to an end (i.e. the % price range of total price is getting smaller). The duration of the 1st phase is now (more or less) equal to the 2nd phase.

     

    Can it stay within its range for the foreseeable future?

     

    Yes of course, but as a consequence of the 'narrowing' pattern, time is limited.

     

    What comes after?

     

    Take your pick


  6. I think this may be the end of the cyclical bull market in silver. As a result of yesterday's drop my NAV dropped by 2.6%.

     

    Previously in April, I bought puts on SLV, and sold half of my physical right at the top, I then cashed in the puts between $33.75 and $35, and bought back my physical position at $37. At the time people were rubbishing the idea of it being a top (apart from Bubb). My thinking was that the bull market would continue, but that the price would have to reach and exceed $50 for this to be confirmed to be the case in my mind. Selling after a drop is not typically what you do in markets, however, the meaning of yesterday's price action and the price action in the markets from a macro perspective could be very significant in my opinion.

     

    After much vacillating, late yesterday I sold my entire physical silver position for US Dollars, I got out at $36.4. I am now entirely in cash.

     

    Today I see silver down a further 10%, so at the moment it looks like the correct decision, but it's too early to say.

     

    Only time will tell.

     

    i still think we will see $50 this xmas; unless we have a total failure of support at these levels (eg. the 'zone') i have no reason to change my mind


  7. $35 looks tasty for october, followed by a rally into xmas

     

    agpossoctlow11.gif

     

     

    UPDATE:

     

    agupdatesept11.gif

     

    not much change really - just got into the 'zone' a bit quicker than expected, hence the zone is now a wee bit bigger

     

    I have added the 'slope of hope' line, because silver needs to clear this to see blue skies again

     

     

    The following chart shows the crucial resistance turned support line which features in the above chart:

     

    agresturnedsupport0911.gif


  8. $35 looks tasty for october, followed by a rally into xmas

     

    agpossoctlow11.gif

     

     

    UPDATE:

     

    agupdatesept11.gif

     

    not much change really - just got into the 'zone' a bit quicker than expected, hence the zone is now a wee bit bigger

     

    I have added the 'slope of hope' line, because silver needs to clear this to see blue skies again

     

     

    The following chart shows the crucial resistance turned support line which features in the above chart:

     

    agresturnedsupport0911.gif


  9. Double-agent. I think you have nailed it. I reckon that call will be spot on. Silver has just hit 200dma in dollars. I am reversing back the truck.

     

    i am going to look at this again today (will post charts later) - tbh, i didn't like the velocity of the drop yesterday, it would have been better to get to $35 over a period of a few weeks. Hence, i think a new target (low) will probably be produced as a result

     

    tho, at this moment in time i think there's only a few dollars in it - better to have a buy 'zone' than an absolute target and $35 does look good right now


  10. The following chart of the natgas nymex contract is monthly (so pretty crude) which shows a wedge formation following the long decline since Q408:

     

     

    natgasnymexcontract0911.gif

     

     

    This is an interesting enough setup of its own accord, but i was scratching my head thinking where had i seen this before (http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=98606&view=findpost&p=1761541).......

     

    updated:

     

     

    pdwedgeQ0109.gif

     

    pd never looked back thereafter, we shall see what happens with natgas

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