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Schaublin

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Posts posted by Schaublin


  1. Bruhahah. Will it be $500 up (desperate Asians), or $50 down (desperate/ridiculous CBs/shorts)? :) Now I'll have to stay awake. But with Tim Butcher's "Blood River" as a read and my own fond memories of a trip into the heart of darkness, it'll be no long wait. Oh, and I need to watch that Sinclair video of course. Got to get my tea too.

     

    Looks like all the online PM dealers are on lock down.

     

    Edit: So for a short period of time, physical is not available at any price!


  2. Thailand recently buying gold +

    Russia recently buying gold +

    South Korea recently buying gold +

    Kazakhstan recently buying gold +

    Greece recently buying gold +

    Ukraine recently buying gold +

    Tajikistan recently buying gold +

    Mexico recently buying gold +

     

    = USD finished as world's reserve currency.

     

    Pity the poor buggers that are selling though!


  3. I also am looking to dispense with new turdling and have not sold a single oz.

     

    Alchemising paper into gold................. Good way of thinking of it fitkid :lol:

     

    Agreed, brilliant fitkid! The temporary alchemy which enables turdling and other exhausted fiats to be changed into gold will not last too long.


  4. At the moment I'm in the same frustrating position as fitkid, hoping for a correction to buy.

     

    Please do not be rude.

     

    Waiting for corrections is a mugs' game. Go back and see people waiting for corrections in 2005 2006.... The desire to get more ounces tomorrow is actually a misplaced faith in fiat currencies. Of course there are corrections but looking at the accelerating trend lines it really is like trying to pick up pennies in front of a steamroller - not particularly greedy as only pennies are involved but is it really worth it?


  5. Let's see how Garth's latest advice works out:

     

     

     

    http://howestreet.com/2011/07/bet/

     

    The guy seems to only have just realised that property should be sold - 4 years too late to take full advantage of the fact. As for the rest of the advice, well, keeping the house makes more sense as at least you will still have something left as opposed to nothing.

     

    ETFs government and corporate bonds - banks and insurers - yeah!

     

    He says that America will not default or devalue. Eh? The default will be de facto by devaluing - all the way down to zero.

     

    Edit: And when did precious metals become 'rocks'? Why am I reading such drivel when I could be out on my bike!


  6. Then when the roof needs repair or the boiler needs replacing: You've got big problems.

     

    The BTL investor really only makes decent money if:

    + He has no mortgage, and/or

    + Property prices are rising

     

    Remove the second of these, and it is a bad business for most landlords with gearing beyond maybe 50-60%

     

    Yes, you have summed it up succinctly but the wannabe rentiers do not want to shatter their dreams by listening and the current leveraged BTL crew think that nanny Central bank will bail them out forever.


  7. I've had this conversation several times and i dont see how the real world physical market is really effecting the paper fictitious CONmex.Your thoughts on how the REAL world physical bullion is effecting the CONmex would be greatly appreciated.

     

    It is unclear to me whether the tail is wagging the dog or the dog wagging its tail but there is no disconnect between paper price and real price at the moment - at least as far as small quantities are concerned ( a side effect of this is that physical gold can still be bought at stupidly low prices). I do not understand the delivery mechanisms regarding the LBMA and do not know what level of fraud is going on at the CONmex but I base my reasoning simply on arbitrage - If physical sales price started to creep above paper price, whatever physical existed in paper markets would leak out into the real world - perhaps it already is.

     

    I keep my eye on CID and similar and ebay and I believe that when a disconnect in price between these real world prices and spot price starts to happen, the spot price will fall quickly - perhaps down to zero as FOFOA has written. That will be an interesting day..


  8. Or more like a 100 x physical 12 sovereigns in worthless ETF's on the CONmex.This rise is quick and TOTALLY justified by the HORRENDOUS fundamentals and in REALITY should be alot higher but their CONmex is still there EXPECT the UNEXPECTED.

     

    Yes, that is right but activity in the real world - of bullion being acquired for fiat and put into storage must affect the CONmex.


  9. lol

     

    No panning at the moment.... but getting prepared for my next trip down south for the summer. Now winter. Looking to buy a solar panel for the camper, and a decent detector for the nuggets. Pruning kiwifruit at the moment in order to keep fit and have a bit of pocket money.

     

    Last time's effort with pan and sluice-box:

     

    DSC01808.jpg

     

    That looks good - 1/2 OZ? It sounds as if you are having a good time. Solar panels are getting reasonably cheap now - be interesting how you get on with actual output vs claimed.


  10. I never have. I've always approached gold as a form of liquidity.... not as primarily investment, or speculation [QE is seen in the context of an on-going global deflation.... merely a "rear-guard action" to avoid a complete rout in markets... and pump prime speculators].Granted that many are investing/ speculating in gold, I think it is the monetary aspect of gold that is increasingly winning out, where "how it prices" [assets and other currencies] progressively eclipses "how it is priced" by currencies. Before the transition is complete [the monetization of gold], there is a good chance of renewed price volatility on jitters in the wider speculatively driven markets.

     

     

    Yes, due diligence must be done on one's own intellectual constructs [to treat theory as dogma is to mis-allocate {intellectual} resources]. The model is only as good as far as it's corroborated by real experience. An enlightened scepticism should allow there's always the chance that the model will blow up along with real world developments... which is why you should always hedge.

     

    God forbid that we should mis-allocate intellectual resources :lol: I would imagine trying to understand what AAK is on about may fall into that category.

     

    BTW, how is your gold panning going?


  11. Swiss Parliament to discuss gold franc. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/swiss-parliament-to-discuss-gold-franc-2011-07-07?pagenumber=1

     

    Most amusing quote I have seen for some time.

     

    “I can imagine that this will spark some sort of debate about gold and there may be some pressure to accept the parallel currency,” said Dr. Gebhard Kirchgaessner, an economics professor at St. Gallen University. “But it won’t have any real effect on the economy. It seems incredible to imagine that there are people out there willing to buy millions of these things.” (He is talking about gold coins)


  12. When houses went up people want to buy them with borrorowed money. When gold goes up people want to sell it. Why is this?

     

    Using a fiat currency which is being debased at a frightening rate as a unit of accounting will lead to confusion. For every buyer there is a seller. For every fool that buys fiat currency with his gold there is a willing seller of fiat.

     

    The ship is already sinking and people are saying; "The ship is unsinkable".


  13. If you ever wondered why the Chinese State is encouraging its people to buy gold, FOFOA has the simple answer here...

     

    And since the US is not in the business of selling off the farm, we sell government debt paper. This has the effect of funding the US government through the trade deficit and exporting the currency inflation to those trading partners that must print their own currency to stay pegged. If they were to buy US-made products with those dollars rather than Treasury paper, then there would be no trade deficit. But then the American economy would have less goods, more cash (inflation) and the government would have to find another stream of funding.

     

    But there is another thing they can do (and are starting to do) with those dollars we are sending them for their goods. They can buy gold on the open market. It really doesn’t matter if the exporter that receives the dollars buys the gold himself, even inside the country, or if the CB buys it from London. If it is purchased in country by citizens, that will raise the internal price of gold and create an arbitrage opportunity that will cause gold to flow into the country until the price differential (inside and out) is equalized.

     

     

    and

     

    Buy gold (instead of Treasuries) with your excess dollars received from selling to products or oil to the US. As long as you buy on the open market (as opposed to dark pools as the Saudis used to do or from mines inside your own country) this drives up the price of gold and causes a physical inflow into your country. You no longer have to print equal amounts of your own currency so you have stopped your internal monetary inflation and, instead, channeled it into the price of gold (inflation only against gold, not life’s necessities). The Fed, in turn, is forced into “QE” which is essentially printing those dollars you would have given to Treasury since Congress can’t cut the budget. Also, those dollars you used to buy gold in London or Zurich will eventually find their way back into the US through private channels and add inflation on top of the printing the Fed is doing.

     

    http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/06/from-treasure-chest.html

     

    Recommended reading - especially for aliveandkicking, who I worry about..


  14. :unsure:

     

    Sorry to seem a bit thick here but how do you lease gold out and what are the ramifications of it?

     

    Who do you lease it to, do you maintain control of it or does somebody give you an IOU?

     

    I.e. what has the Belgium government actually done with its gold?

     

    Regards

     

    ML

     

    The only reason that gold is rented or leased is so that the lease holder can sell it and gamble with the money. Back in the day, it was a great trade as the POG was driven lower each year - partly by the gold being sold! My guess about the Belgian gold is that the renters just keep paying the rent on it - but almost certainly are unable to buy back in and return it. In other words, it has gone - much like most other leased gold I suspect. It will all come out one day and there will be great wailing and gnashing of teeth :lol:


  15. This could be a load of fun.

     

    Is your gold squeaky-clean gold?

     

    http://www.gold.org/about_gold/sustainability/conflict_free_standards/

     

    I trust the wgc are not considering backdating this :D

     

    The ways of stealing gold from the weak are myriad - this is the latest attempt. IMO, a sign that the Phoney War period is coming to an end.

     

     

    "Criminals now using conflict gold to avoid banking system."

     

    "Proof that terrorists operating parallel banking system using conflict gold."

     

    "General Public now sees conflict gold hoarders as worse than paedophiles."

     

    "Football star accused of hiding secret stash of conflict gold Krugerrands, admits he is guilty but claims he was influenced by Internet Gold Bugs - life sentence expected."


  16. Yer me too. Im also glad of Goldfingers buy and hold advice as I would have been lousy at trading. Cgnao stark warnings and dramatic posting style spurred me into buying gold and silver and goldfingers sensible ratios to houses etc made a great case for gold. Thanks guys and please keep posting!!!

     

    Another thank you to Goldfinger from me - a great source of information and excellent at countering claims from paper bugs and other fools.


  17. Interesting to see someone is selling on their cash4gold vehicle. I have heard from folks in this line of business that there is next to no gold coming through from the public at the moment. The general feeling is that most have already sold.

     

    I imagine it is therefore very difficult to make a living in the cash4gold game and hence this sale but that's pure speculation on my part.

     

    Good point but I imagine there is still some gold left to be mined from the public if we see a significant fiat increase.


  18. BBC news says gold in bubble:

     

    BBC - impoverishing the masses since 1922

     

    Everyone sell NOW. Get into property, banking stocks and government bonds before it's too late!

     

    Most importantly perhaps, Mr Dewan also argues that gold is now a "crowded trade". In other words, too many people own it - not a characteristic savvy investors look for.

     

    How can too many people own it? At any given time, different people own different things. The BBC is doing a series about commodity prices - blaming everything from 'speculators' to UFOs (I made that up). No mention of replacing borrowing with printing...

     

    Also, according to this chart, 'property' fell almost to 1999 prices in 2008 did I miss something? Who TF reads and believes this kind of crap?

     

    _52614810_gold_vs_assets_624.gif

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