Schaublin

just noticed your post schaublin are we spiritually related ??

I think we are but you are somewhat more flamboyant

You could only assume it was real even if you were an expert. And an expert dealer can always pass it onto another person.

 

A determined person with knowledge could produce a less valueable coin that would be next to impossible to seperate from the real thing without analysis or damage to the coin, which is why you need the paperwork when you sell the coins

Why are you propagating such nonsense? If you have no experience of gold, you just need to weigh the coin and measure it. Anyone used to handling coins can immediately feel the difference in weight or size of something that is not gold. The idea that 'paperwork' is needed when trading gold coins is laughable. Do you have 'paperwork' for your fiat money? It is rather easy to forge bank notes.

I am starting to notice a spooky correlation between 'tension' on GEI and subsequent POG increase - I may have to start using it as a guide.

You can call me golden balls ,golden pig,golden elephant ,golden bug,long term permo gold bug,or any other derivation or combination of the word golden all i care about is that i have got lots of gold in my physical possession. Period!!!!

 

fitkid, I can't help noticing that your head seems to be made of coiled wire. Do you find this to be a problem in everyday life?

I do tend to read more than I post but just wanted to say - Pixel8r and RH, you are two of my favourite posters on here - always enjoy reading your points of view and the positions you're employing, but there does seem to have been a bit of beef between you (particularly from your side Pixel8r) recently and I'm not sure it's the most helpful approach. All of us are here with the same broad aims, can we not at least try to get along?

-1

When someone has written something dismissive about another's position, Is not a riposte called for?

Did I just see $1,100.10?

1100 just taken

As I said, it is all about hedging against uncertainty [in short term silver prices].

 

My favorite Mongold is Kublai Khan... who kept all the kingdom's gold in his own palace and gave his population paper to use as money. Worked very well indeed and well impressed Marco Polo.... though he didn't stop to consider that paper would be worthless in Europe.

Indeed. Read it and weep:

Being the first government to have any sort of paper currency, foreigners understood nothing about it, and some even considered it a form of magic. Regardless of persistent inflation after 1272 paper currency backed by limited releases of coins remained as the standard means of currency until 1345. Around 1345 rebellions, economic crisis and financial mismanagement of the paper currency destroyed the public’s confidence in the bills.[6]

Paper money wasn’t extremely easy to adopt because it was a foreign concept in the beginning and it wasn’t a precious metal, it was just a piece of paper. To initiate the transition from other forms of compensation to paper currency the government made refusing to accept the bill punishable by death.

Sounds familiar.

I wait for lower silver prices which I think are very resaonable to expect.

 

 

Cheap dollars? I am looking to buy some cheap dollars [with another peripheral currency that is strengthening at the moment]. I have already bought Yen when it was cheaper than now [shows something of a good track record I think]. This is to hedge against a reversal in the market which I think is quite likely at some point. No hidden agenda here but a clear cut purpose based on macro-economics and market phenomonology.

 

For myself, I am very overweight in silver and want to SWAP TO GOLD before the deflationary episode hits the market. Once again, I have clearly explained the strategy.... nothing untoward, no hidden agenda. no conspiracy, no fear... just a common sense hedging with the goal to accumulate gold. Period.

 

Avoid stereotypes.

 

 

The puritanical approach does get a bit tedious.

With very little evidence and no proof whatsoever, I have feeling in 'me water' that £10 oz silver will be talked about in a few years much as the Mongols were after their European tour of the 13th C. Ok, perhaps not quite as much but I like to mention the Mongols wherever possible.

Don't knock the Puritans - after all without em, who would have founded the USA? Hmm... OK, let's knock em

Its a mark of genius, didnt you know

 

I try hard but always seem to end up with too much stupidity or not enough words....

I remember years ago I was driving in Spain when a car overtook an oncoming vehicle and almost forced me off the road. I was flashing my lights -horn etc - and the driver just smiled and gave me a wave! That nonchalant wave made me so angry it was a wonder I did not burst a blood-vessel - but in a zen-like moment, I realised that the driver understood how to react - and I, like a fool, did not. So, I resolved that next time in such a situation, I would wave too

BINGO! We have a winner!

CONGRATULATIONS! You have won MY first prize in how to demonstrate smugness/condescension/stupidity in the fewest number of words possible.

I wish I had the time to participate in this discussion.

There is an obvious divide between "goldbug" and non "goldbug".

 

IMO there are two aspects to this:

 

1. Do the facts support one view or the other, or is there some subjectivity involved?

 

2. I am interested in the reason why people tend to one view or the other.

1) All the facts are screaming 'geo-political shift to the East' Can this be measured and quantified? No, and if you try, you will end up mired in data and unable to think clearly - but you do not have to be a Rocket-Scientist to that it is occurring.

2) I am not a gold 'bug' - I am not even that enamoured with it and never owned any until a few years ago but I want to preserve my wealth and gold is the only game in town. My observation of anti-gold types is that they tend to be academics - from different disciplines who cannot separate real life from theory. I have some experience of this as my late Father was an academic and I remember having fascinating conversations with him in what could be loosely called 'meta-physics'. He had a first class brain but made series of poor financial decisions which impacted on the entire family.

I also believe that arrogance is a factor - that somehow this generation and its theories are better than the past and that 'we won't make the same mistakes as last time'. Greed, corruption and folly are still here in abundance. Place your bets.

I think you are starting to lose the plot now. Ordinary people blessed with more than average common sense and an open mind will come through what will soon occur, with their wealth intact - and even increase their purchasing power. Foolish academics who apply 'critical thinking' to economics will lose their shirts. It was ever thus.

I just had a glimpse of the future - born again Western 'fiatists' trudging around China and India trying to convert the Heathens away from their gold. Usually given a courteous hearing and, occasionally, a few grams of silver so that they can buy some food

That's my position, more or less.

 

From now on I try not to care what others think on this anymore.

 

I just understand that the more people believe in the gold mythology pushed by gold-pushing snakeoil salesmen, the better a trading opportunity I have. In fact, potentially one of a lifetime.

 

So if you are a gold-is-money-believer, then please ignore this post and all the scholarly analytical literature on gold standard. I'm sure it's all crap spouted by shoople historians who are in the pocket of the central banks.

 

From now on, I'll stick to discussing gold price moves and everybody who so desires can keep on believing in the gold-tooth fairy

 

If this was off-topic, please feel free to move/delete the whole post.

I think you are starting to lose the plot now. Ordinary people blessed with more than average common sense and an open mind will come through what will soon occur, with their wealth intact - and even increase their purchasing power. Foolish academics who apply 'critical thinking' to economics will lose their shirts. It was ever thus.

Can you please reveal us your technique for this prediction?

 

How do you arrive at $5000 and higher levels still?

 

Also, would you say the same amount of rise in EUR or CHF or JPY or CNY?

 

Or just USD?

 

Inquiring minds want to know.

I stand in awe of you. Here we are at a time when anyone of average intelligence can see that the un-payable burden of Western debt is teetering like a plate on a stick and you willfully choose to ignore it - or more accurately, demand proof! I can imagine Halconovitch' in Russia in the late eighties - telling anyone that would listen, that the Rouble was sound because it had already lasted 50 years. I have met many elderly Russians living in poverty because they did not understand that their Rouble savings would be rendered almost worthless in a matter of months. I would not wish it on anyone and that is why I feel I have to warn people here what could happen to them if they don't wake up.

Maybe. Let's plot an average of all fiat paper currencies PP with SS CPI adjustment and compare that to gold. That's the proof. I don't really want to believe anything this important without proof. Especially not gold-bug propaganda.

 

As for GF, only he can say what he believes, but I've gotten the impression that he believes: not trading in gold, gold will go to $2000-$5000 (inf adjusted), COMEX will default, gold somehow has intrinsic value, gold is money, and many other things. That to me is tantamount to "buy & hold & be happy". If I have misrepresented his views, I apologize and I hope he he will correct me.

 

 

 

Sorry, should have been more precise. Fiat as in 'through faith'. Gold is not de jure money anywhere and it's use as a money-like store of value is based on culture, history and mainly other non-intrinsic features.

 

That's why it is faith based. Either you believe gold has the value that people say it has - or not (or believe these to a degree, based on price).

 

I don't believe it is "once and future money, a perfect store of value."

 

Valuable? Sure! For industrial uses, for historical reasons, due to cultural expression and due to the emergy embedded.

 

Money? Historically yes. Now? No.

 

 

 

That's not quite as I view it. Only produced (mined) gold can really be valuable in use (excl. futures/options on assumed reserves in the ground are speculation, even though on can exchange it to something of true value).

 

Now, the price of something is determined (I believe in microeconomic theory in this regard) by supply and demand. Currently we have due to many cultural/historical reasons increasing demand. And the production isn't rising as fast. Hence price rises. Nothing to do with intrinsic value or perfect store of value.

 

I believe food has more intrinsic value and its price can still fluctuate wildly according to supply and demand. If you don't eat, you die. Food is essential. Food in itself is useful, without any intermediaries.

 

If gold is chosen as 'perfect' money, because it has not intrinsic value, then it is by definition granted value based on faith. Whether that is cultural silent agreements or a de jure position, matters none. If it has no intrinsic value, then whatever given to it is based on faith. This is basic logic.

 

BTW, all paper money fiats have had a practical limit to it's quantity - namely loss of credibility. Gold can experience a correction in this regards in its price, just as it has, several times before in history. If too many start piling up on it, and the prices rise too high, it's credibility as a cultural store of value at that time can rapidly diminish. As has happened before in history.

 

Again, this is not an either/or issue. I'm not "against gold". I respect gold, but I don't go into the "hey, it's once and future money! BUY IT! It can only go up" camp either.

 

What is the point of all this, I hear some of you saying? Some academic posturing?

 

The point is this: gold both historically and the way it is given value can have wild upswings (overvaluation) and downswings (relative historical mean undervalution). It is a potential good trade or mid-term investment, if you believe in it due to the volatility and sentiment hypothesis. It's not a GOOD long term investment, if you believe it on the the long term historical averages.

 

Very crude graph with a hand drawn approximation linear regression (don't have the original dataset to plot algorithmically)

 

My point to myself and perhaps to some others who haven't thought about this:

 

Understand what you invest in, why and when. Don't fall for dogma.

Heavy artillery of sophistry in action here trying to prove that night is day. Gold is money. Why? Thousands of years and countless millions of people have used it as money. Some of your reasoning reminds me of those who disagree with evolution through natural selection or Marxist ideas that the nature of man can be changed with enough indoctrination/training. Any idea that goes against the nature of man will only ever be a short-lived experiment. Indeed, gold itself has survived the natural selection process in the choice of money. Fifty years of fiat paper (which is now unraveling) is a mere blip but you seem to think that by saying 'it aint so' will stop it happening.

Why do you think silver will hold up? Being more of a "commodity currency" don't you think it is more liekly to drop in sympathy with stcoks and commodities?

 

Gold on the other hand should remain relatively strong.

 

As a hedger, I am looking to buy silver cheaply on the correction with cash reserves.

Quiet here tonight

I know this is the traditional wisdom that silver acts more like an industrial metal BUT I am beginning to think that this may change. I cannot back-up this opinion with anything concrete but imagine if an Oligarch wanted a cheeky punt on silver - 50 Million USD would tickle things up a bit and likely rattle the weak underpinnings of the long suppressed price. Once that ball started rolling, there would be some real fun...

Bill / Jay;

It’s really amazing listening to Canada’s Business News Network and the cast of morons trying to account for today’s gold price action. I just heard them say, "they contacted John "the Diddler" Nadler at Kitco to ask him wuz up with the gold price.

 

Goat-Horn-Diddler apparently told them that the "bugs" were all worked up in a froth over unsubstantiated and denied rumors about the U.S. Dollar. What a complete fool that man is.

 

I come back to this being a story about what my source is telling me – it’s all about physical gold. When I re-read what I’ve been told, it is clear that off-market cash inducements have been offered to folks who have been requesting physical. The implications here, imo, are STUNNING!!!

 

This means that gold is REALLY trading in significant backwardation already – and the scum bags are trying to hide this fact too!!

 

But don’t tell the human-rain-delay at Kitco – he might shite his drawers with all the paper metal he has sold for good ole Bart.

Best,

Rob Kirby

That sentence just made me collapse with laughter

Perhaps you could expand there without distracting this thread.

 

 

Look at your piece above Jim! You are part of your self-proclaimed distraction!

 

And are you talking about the gulag or the dungeon, I get so confused.

 

I have plenty of evidence on Fisk. I've followed his career and read his writings for many many years. A successful intel agent says all the right things and makes all the right noises to gain credbility, then when the time is right he'll earn his keep.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Simon Rabinotvitch and Wayne Cole

Reuters

Tuesday, Oct 6th, 2009

 

Big oil producing nations denied on Tuesday a British newspaper report that Gulf Arab states were in secret talks with Russia, China, Japan and France to replace the U.S. dollar with a basket of currencies in trading oil.

 

The U.S. dollar eased in response to the report, which was written by The Independent’s Middle East correspondent Robert Fisk and cited unidentified sources in Gulf Arab states and Chinese banking sources in Hong Kong.

 

It said the proposal was for trade in crude oil to move over nine years to a basket of currencies including the Japanese yen, the Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and a new, unified currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council, which includes Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

 

But top officials of Saudia Arabia and Russia, speaking on the sidelines of International Monetary Fund meetings in Istanbul, denied there were such talks.

 

 

 

 

 

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

 

 

 

 

'Well they're not going to admit it even if there were talks. Will this help curb the dollar sell off? Or make people nervous that something is going on?

 

My impression is that if there's nothing to deny you shouldn't have to deny it.

 

Feline's out of the bag now. The question remains, will the first-mover effect kick in: those that dump first, gain more.

 

It could go either way. But I have to say, the USD doesn't have much going for it domestically, and internationally the derivatives beast goes away if the dollar is marginalized to nothing.

 

It comes as no surprise that Saudi Arabia denies it. We'd cut off their protection if they publicly admitted it. Russia denies it, but that would be par for the course for them. China already wants out of the dollar, so I expect they'll just quietly continue doing what they have been doing. So far, France hasn't denied it but we already know where they stand. Then again, they *should* all deny it given the meetings were billed as *secret*.

 

So, was it leaked to force the issue sooner and drive the dollar down faster? Who leaked it? I would not be surprised to find out the the CIA leaked it to the British press.'

 

 

CIA to MI6 = R Fisk Esq.

 

Step forward trusted asset Robert Fisk to write the perfect article.

 

Get it yet, Jim?

I agreee with cdswamp about this. Obviously even ill-informed controlled media consumers know that something is afoot. That article confirms some of their ideas BUT kicks it out to 2018 - no need to worry for the moment then.

Fair point Fortune. I think I would now trust China easily over Switzerland, who are caving in all over the Place withe Polanski and UBS snithching on 7,000 usa pay-triots!

 

 

No such theing anymore of Swiss private bank accounts. Total foooooocking pirates, v v v clever, which is always what they have been.

 

Same is happening everywhere worldwide, right Bubb and Steve???

Seems strange to me that the gnomes have cracked under pressure. The only thing they have (had) going for them was anonymity - cast iron with no questions asked. Took em a long time to get that reputation and now it has vanished overnight. Any ideas cdswamp about what kind of threats were applied?

Yes, this is the whole point as this is where most people get their food.

 

There is a clear difference between the universal daily use of PMs and the situation where a shop owner (or even thousands of shop owners) will trade with you for gold to cash to goods. State employees are paid in fiat - they have to eat and if the supply chain and credit system collapses then we are in deep shit. That is why it will be made to function long after it seems to be a farce. I am not suggesting that there will not be a dual economy - of course there will be - there always is and PMs and stable foreign currencies will buy you anything, I am merely pointing out that most people will have to use the government fiat as they have no choice.

 

IMO one good indication for when things are on the cusp of going hyper (not just high inflation) is when you notice that expensive luxury foods are no longer available in the big supermarkets. By the time only grey bread and dodgy sausages are on the shelves and the loaf costs £120,000000, even Realistbear from HPC may admit he made a bad call.

That loaf now costs 190,000000

You are missing why we use fiat from your thoughts. Using PM's on a daily basis still happens in a lot of non-westernised countries and has for thousands of years.

 

The Chinese originally thought of fiat because they had a stable political system that lasted for generations. Its purpose was never to make trade easier but to reduce loss of tax. As soon as a payment is made in weight of PM's and not the value of a token you break that key link to the government coffers, that of control of the currency. The government can monitor and control tokens but they can’t control metal that has its own intrinsic value, the black or natural market flourishes. The more stable the country the less the black or natural exists and the further the people can been weaned from metals with value.

 

Tesco’s, Wal-Mart and the other chains cannot react fast enough when a fiat economy is under severe stress because they are built on the fundamentals of fiat. They do not make their money by selling goods. They make it from renting shelf space to the food producers along with built in distribution and payment facilities. Their store managers have little to do with pricing as this is done centrally along with purchase and stock control. Independent stores don’t have this problem as they control the price, stock and where they purchase stock from. Look at the news footage from countries like Argentina and Zimbabwe and you can see that the chain stores have empty shelves but the independents are still well stocked.

 

Go to an independent and ask a non-westernised Asian or Middle-Eastern owner if you can pay in precious metals, the result may surprise you.

Yes, this is the whole point as this is where most people get their food.

There is a clear difference between the universal daily use of PMs and the situation where a shop owner (or even thousands of shop owners) will trade with you for gold to cash to goods. State employees are paid in fiat - they have to eat and if the supply chain and credit system collapses then we are in deep shit. That is why it will be made to function long after it seems to be a farce. I am not suggesting that there will not be a dual economy - of course there will be - there always is and PMs and stable foreign currencies will buy you anything, I am merely pointing out that most people will have to use the government fiat as they have no choice.

IMO one good indication for when things are on the cusp of going hyper (not just high inflation) is when you notice that expensive luxury foods are no longer available in the big supermarkets. By the time only grey bread and dodgy sausages are on the shelves and the loaf costs £120,000000, even Realistbear from HPC may admit he made a bad call.

From: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5xnIFzP2bTY

I do not see what this proves. Of course, some currency traders and gold/silver traders may set up shop within a grocery store - this happened in ex Soviet Union but you would get better rates outside the shop and you still convert to fiat for the purchase of the groceries.

In your no:2 scenario with what do you buy your local currency with?

 

When it gets to this stage then capital controls will be in place and unless you have already exchanged your local for a commodity or other countries currency you would have nothing to purchase local currency with. PM’s have little volume compared to value and keep for ever unlike many commodities. Bulky commodities also require storing and increase the risk of robbery on the way to buy enough local currency.

 

Consider gold going to $5,000, five times today’s price, and silver at a ratio of 1:20 somewhat more like its historic norm. With gold at £626 that will be £3130 an ounce or £100 per gram. So a gram of silver will be equal to £5, a fine silver 16” belcher weighs about 2.5 grams or £12 if gold was to go that high, 10 silver chains for your weekly shop.

With your foreign currency or with your gold or silver. If you don't have this you will have to rely on your salary which means you will be very poor. Forget about trading silver chains in a supermarket - it will never happen - you will have to go through the intermediary of fiat.

What happened in Zimbabwe? I thought they used gold for grocery purchases.

 

It's the most recent currency collapse and the behaviour was different and it never went Mad Max.

 

I think you may be wrong on this.

The Zim dollar was still being used right into hyperinflation - check out the news reports of early this year. It is true that no-one wanted it in exchange for private goods and services but you still needed it to pay for official things. USD was the unofficial currency - now de-facto official.

Thanks for that No6.

 

House prices here are still falling everyday, I monitor them on propertybee and another website that shows house price drops here.

 

I suppose I knew we would be getting a 'dead cat bounce', house prices are a bit more affordable now but still not affordable for the average First Time Buyer.

 

The only people I know who are moving are those that bought 5+ years ago, on to their 2nd or 3rd homes, maybe more of these types of homes are being sold, and not the traditional FTB homes - perhaps that is why we got such a large increase here?

 

Transaction are still heavily down and I do believe the market here is a long way from being healthy as you say, I just can't be bothered with all the ramping we are going to get from our local newspaper and their vested interest rubbish!

A friend of mine expressed surprise that the house price bubble was taking a long time to deflate - I agreed with him but bear in mind that all levers that can be pulled to slow down the crash have already been pulled - there is no more ammo left.

A further devaluation in GBP would bring higher oil prices and higher prices of almost everything else - the weaker the GBP is, the less will be the nominal falls in house prices. Goldfinger has covered this in his Oz gold/average house prices graph - this IMO is the best tool for understanding property prices. The muppets at HPC dont get it and will lose the opportunity to take advantage of their STR strategy because their GBP will be falling almost as fast as the house prices.