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Schaublin

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Posts posted by Schaublin


  1. You are challenging an "article of faith" perhaps?

     

    People do not like to think too much for themselves, and would rather accept someone else's views as "gospel", I suppose.

     

    I remember buying gold at around $500 after it came off its $850 peak in 1980, a few years earlier. I thought: it MUST go back to $850 - I can recall all those strong arguments that I was hearing in 1979-80, and they "made so much sense."

     

    Well, I got "my clocke cleaned" on that buy, and I learned that I needed to develop my own long term points of view, not just rely on experts.

     

    I challenge the Buy&Hold purists here, who are fond of quoting their favorite precious metals gurus. That is because I know those gurus may let them down at the peaks, when it wil really matter. People need to learn to think for themselves and not just accept the price targets of their favorite Gurus.

     

    On what basis do you claim to know that PM holders cannot think for themselves and slavishly follow 'gurus'? Maybe Central Banks have been listening to the Pied Piper too much and that is why they are selling their fiat for gold? I do keep an eye on various 'experts' but the funny thing is, despite the 'snake oil salesmen', reek of some of them, the underlying facts of debt, monetisation of debt, lack of wealth production etc, are real.

     

    If a shady character said that day follows night, one would initially be suspicious that it does! DOYR and you will find that it indeed does. Funny old world.


  2. Silver has still risen from around 5 and most enthusiasts here are adding from their earnt income.

     

    At best a fall from 50 to 20 or 8 ;) , or whatever it goes to, is just a bit dissapointing and does provide an

    opportunity to get more at a cheaper price.

     

    As people have pointed out before, many people here are not sophisticated traders. Silver holders

    have done nothing wrong as far as i can see providing at some point in the future they do realise

    that they will need to exit there position when prices are high, before others are also heading

    for the same exit, where their only buyer is likely to be some gnarly old metal trader offering

    them a pretty unattractive price for metal he cannot sell and does not want to hold.

     

    If the (does he have to be old and gnarly?) trader cannot sell and will not hold he would not give you anything at all. This scenario is pedalled by those in thrall to normalcy bias who just cannot see how the system is unravelling and cling to the idea that their paper will store their wealth in the coming years.


  3. I see we are now termed as Mafia.

     

    Another inflamatory title Bubb and you wonder why people get annoyed with you.

     

    Yes, there has been:

     

    Pied piper

     

    Gold bugs clawing at the sky

     

    Buy and hold Mafia - the most absurd one so far. Someone has to be in the possession of gold and if they wisely choose to continue to own it and see no merit in buying rapidly deteriorating fiat currencies with it, they must be classed as organised criminals!


  4. Hi guys,

    I am calling for 500 buck gold this time.

    These are the technicals:

    http://seekingalpha....erm-update-2011

     

    I am short, and this is going to be my killing trade. Bears, wish me luck.

     

    Regards

     

    I was trying to think of a mildly amusing reply but realised that lifting a quote from your blog was better:

     

    However we have got the top on the weekly, so market reversed.

    Hitting 400 by early 2012 would be an ideal bottom, but I am not calling 400, I am

    calling 500. :lol: Because there is a strong support at 500 line.


  5. There was a very different set of circumstances in the 1980's, they raised interest rates above the inflation rate. That will not happen this time as doing so will make the system break from the level of debt, all they can do is keep going with the fiat currency race to the bottom. In the end gold will become money again, so there won't be a top followed by a crash as your expecting more like a plateau to a stable currency value. cool.gif

     

    I think the purchasing power of gold will overshoot by some degree and then fall back as some productive activity resumes but the falling back will be slow and anyway, will be many multiples of the present purchasing power.


  6. Sometimes, it pays to be lazy - I have not got round to buying more gold since I sold some silver last month. I may wait a little longer - £800 would be nice :lol: This drop may be the last chance to acquire gold at these prices but I think many timid types who do not really understand the big picture will be spooked into selling or not seizing this opportunity to buy.


  7. "Three Peaks and the Domed House" Pattern Suggests Gold Going to $1,290!

     

    the “Plunge” phase has now begun and gold should experience a 17% decline to $1,290 per ozt.by the end of June.

     

    we could see silver correct down to the $39 level (i.e. -15%) and possibly go down to the $33 level (i.e. -28%) which would correspond to the “Plunge” phase of the gold index.

     

    http://www.kitco.com/ind/Yu/may042011.html

     

    Could be so and a great opportunity to get rid of any fiat still remaining.


  8. I just BTFD

    €27.50 (net) Libertard cid was the cheapest

    been watching the physical prices all week

    and lots of fluctuation between diff coins

    Philis have been quite expensive at times as have Libs

    must be down to supply situation imo

    hope I havent jumped in too soon

     

    Strange thing is that ebay prices don't seem to have dropped much. The buyer of small quantities has no problem buying at these low prices from places like CID so for the little guy, there is a connection between the spot price and the physical price but the story may be rather different for someone wanting to buy some tonnes!


  9. The sooner the better. My living standards were cut to bits by the boom. I wasn't stupid enough to allow myself to take out loans I could never hope to repay. But those who were bid up prices with money they didn't have, preventing me from buying a nice home.

     

    Idiots were calculating the maximum monthly payment they could possibly make after they bought food and petrol and taking out the largest possible mortgage. Prices became ridiculous. The entire got economy turned into a house flipping ponzi scheme. And all though it I was forced out of the market.

     

    I kept my cash and waited for the inevitable crash. But no! Instead of a crash I got zero percent interest rates. My savings were and are being eroded, so that the foolish could keep their houses at my expense. Idiots get a free house, and I get to pay for it!

     

    This is absolutely correct. Anyone holding GBP will see (has seen/is seeing) its purchasing power drain away. Lots of people on HPC were fixated on the housing bubble and how to profit from the crash but would not listen to those (and indeed abused them) that warned against keeping savings in fiat - the worst possible vehicle for saving wealth.

     

    The great thing is, none of this is new - there is a mountain of information about previous economic crises which can be studied and learned from - One's own normalcy bias can be changed with knowledge but unfortunately, the sheeple are fleeced from generation to generation using the same techniques.


  10. This is the biggest spike down in the gold:silver ratio since the Hunt spike in 1979.

     

    2011:

     

    68:1 down to 31.44. A drop of 53.82% in approx. 8 months time.

     

    1979:

     

    33:1 down to 13.99. A drop of 56.61% in approx. 5 months time.

     

    What do you do as someone who trades the ratio every now and then? From the OI, this is no real short squeeze yet. Also, look at the 2.33 years chart in the middle below (since 2009) -- this is much more sustained than in 1979-80 (last chart below).

     

    I am somewhat tempted to swap even more silver now that I have made this comparison. But of course we're still way off the 1979 low in gold:silver.

     

    Interesting times.

     

    EDIT: In all fairness, this could become the JPMorgue spike: the biggest spike down ever. :)

     

     

     

    I think that silver is now over valued in relation to gold - but way under valued in fiat. I will retain some silver as a hedge against being wrong but will continue to swap as the ratio comes down. 10:1 would be good!


  11. I agree, money is getting scarce for many. Yet, central bank have masses of reserves which are being divesified into gold. This effectively puts a floor of sorts under the gold price. Have you heard of any central banks diversifying into silver? Speculators on the other hand can go into silver, bid the price up, and then just as quickly jump out again. The same kind of floor is not there.

     

    Central banks monetize gold. Speculators/ investors speculate in silver as an inflation hedge. It then makes sense to invest in gold, speculate in silver. Recognizing the primacy of gold, many who have speculated well in silver are now moving some of those gains into the safer harbour of gold.

     

    Fofoa has written eloquently about silver being out of a job for use as soft money when paper currencies have now have filled the position. I accept his reasoning (and my own beliefs) about this and have swapped 1/3 of my silver to gold (enabling me to acquire twice the gold ounces by virtue of silver's massive gains). I think silver has a long way to go and will ride it some more but will be incrementally swapping for gold along the way.


  12. Indeed, but what is the next asset class?

     

    I do not know what the next asset class will be but I believe that the future will be about food.

     

    Farming in the UK seems to be uneconomical due to a variety of factors but in my opinion mainly because of the over priced GBP and the supermarket's strategy of screwing down the price paid to producers. As others have pointed out, farmland is hard to hide when the state thieves come looking for a way to milk some more tax. Also, it is worth taking note that intensive use of nitrogen fertilisers has ruined much of the soil.

    Having said that, people have to eat and with increasingly expensive imported oil and fertiliser, food will become ever more expensive.

     

    Niche markets can provide real returns even in a collapse. Steel doors which open outwards were bought in their millions in Russia in the early 90s...


  13. The 'experts' have been calling a bubble since gold hit 400 dollars per ounce. Strange that they never noticed the biggest house price bubble in history.

     

    Taking into account risk and inflation I don't see anything I'd like to invest in. Take a look at the divident on stocks

     

    dowdividendyieldhistory.jpg

     

    With inflation, measured using fiddled CPI stats, is four percent. Do I really want to risk my wealth investing in stocks during an inflationary depression?

     

    Gilt yields are also about four percent. So if inflation increases I would lose money by buying gilts. European govt bonds yields look good, but I doubt they can afford to pay.

     

    Where should I put my wealth to escape the gold bubble? Any suggestions?

     

    It is interesting to contemplate how wealth can be preserved through time against a background of changing technology and shifting geo political power. The most valuable tool is ... yourself! A person's ability to understand what is happening now together with some knowledge of history enables the right decisions to be made.

     

    Buying under-valued assets cheap and swapping them when they become over valued applies to gold just as it does to other things. Given what is coming, gold is still very undervalued.


  14. Sorry, but the guy is a troll.Barn him!!

    Flooding good discussions with worthless argumentative cr*p.

    We all know there is really only one (maybe two) assets which make the best insurance to default risk.

     

    Furthermore, we all know in what quantities and how you are invested ;):D

    4c9ab8f8ed5b1dd8_large.jpg

     

    I am not sure that ALK should be 'barned' - after all, if he were confined to a barn, we would never get these absolute gems" People prefer to use trusted paper and deposits than bits of metal of unknown quality." :lol:

     

    http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=4411&view=findpost&p=211248


  15.  

    Most nonsensical vid have watched in ages - a lot of talk about 'raw' gold. Don't they know that uncooked gold cannot be eaten? One guy is described as a 'raw raw' dealer complaining he cannot get enough of the raw stuff :lol: Mention, of I think, 20 000 and 50 000 tonnes being needed this year - if that were KG it may make some sense.

     

    Edit:

     

    Your mission is to produce a short video to attempt to persuade the sheeple that gold is in a bubble. To amuse yourself, you may incorporate nonsensical terms and ludicrous numbers. If the video clip is acceptable to us, you will be paid 10 000 tonnes of raw raw.

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