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Schaublin

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Posts posted by Schaublin


  1. Someone losing their faith in silver? ;)

     

    I might consider selling 1/3, but I really need to see 35:1 for that.

     

    We are not far off - 38.5:1 now. Only needs a few more dollars on silver to reach 35:1. Not losing faith so much as hedging my bets - RH style except I hedge my silver with gold not dollars :lol:


  2. I have overdosed on Zerohedge, Blythe, delivery shenanigans, The Morgue et al - just felt in my water that a two and a half bagger was not to be sniffed at on silver. Total gold ounces increased thanks to selling 1/3 silver. Have to keep one eye on present possibilities and one on the endgame.


  3. It looks to me like silver is selling off, which I actually think is a good thing for the medium/long term. It was going to happen anyway, the only question in my mind was if it happened at $37.50 - $40.00 or $50.00. You can't escape traders taking profits...

     

    Personally I think if Japan's situation escalates, silver will sell off further, but before anyone says anything I'm fully aware of the supply constraints and why silver should be much higher, but I just don't think it's going to happen just yet... Assuming it does break down from here, $27/t.oz (50% fib.) looks likely to me.

     

    Sorry if this is an unpopular view and of course I could well be wrong.

     

    I agree - cannot articulate precisely why. Sold some silver a few days ago - will hopefully, catch a dip in gold next week - 1380 maybe?


  4. Standard article in the Telegraph for the sheeple to frighten them into not buying gold while there is still time to do so.

     

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/persona...overheated.html

     

    The article is actually an insult to the intelligence (but I suppose most of them are). Firstly claiming that gold is overbought and heading for a crash and then a few sentences later saying If you bought gold in the Eighties, for example, it hasn't proved to be the most effective hedge against inflation since then. If it had kept pace with prices, it would now be worth about $2,600 an ounce.

     

    So, it is both overbought but lagging inflation :lol:


  5. I am saying, in the gold standard all items are priced relative to the price of Gold where the price of gold is related to the perception by humans of the value of Gold. Therefore if you artificially alter the price of gold you artificially alter the price of everything.

     

    Correct, that is why the slippery beach ball (gold) that has been held under water for many years and is slipping through the fingers of a dying Empire, is a good buy.

     

    Glad you understand at last :lol:


  6. Worth mentioning that bacteria may well play a role in the distribution of gold.

     

    Layers of bacteria can actually dissolve gold into nanoparticles, which move through rocks and soils, and then deposit it in other places, sometimes creating purer "secondary" gold deposits in cracks and crevices of rocks. The process overturns the long-held belief by some scientists that gold ore is created only by "primary" physical geological processes.

     

    http://news.discovery.com/earth/gold-bacteria-nuggets.html


  7. The problem is that I have a lot more silver than gold, would need a large safe to put it in. Plus you don't have the ability to sell it quickly and the UK VAT problem.

     

    I do keep some coins as SHTF protection, but the majority of my silver is in diversified vaults.

     

    IMO if things really get that bad as states are confiscating bullion from vaults, then it wouldn't be of much use anyway.

     

     

    I take your point about the volume of silver but I have always regarded safes as thief magnets and would never keep anything valuable in them. The ability to sell quickly is a valid point and in the case of silver which may experience great volatility, makes sense but again, this convenience does carry some risk.

     

    I don't agree that State confiscation would necessarily mean a Mad Max scenario. Some study of history is helpful in understanding how private property whether it be gold, agricultural land, forestry etc was and will be appropriated by the State in times of stress for 'the general good'.

     

    The general public in the UK has no understanding of gold (doesn't own any) and would have no interest if the State decided to 'curb gold speculators who are hoarding gold and damaging the economy'.

     

    Bottom line: If it is not known about, it cannot be stolen.


  8. I think you will find that in the rule of law you do own it, you are simply paying GM to store your allocated bullion for you.

     

    I don't agree, in particular I think GM is run very well and that my gold or silver is definitely in the correct vaults. You can of course actually take delivery of 100 gram, kilo or lbma bars from them if you feel inclined. I would definitely say that you don't necessarily own gold if you own a ETF, but GM is different IMO.

     

    You can't very well hold on to hundreds of thousands worth of bullion at home can you? That would also have it's own risks.

     

    Why not? £100 000 GBP is only 100 OZ more or less. Gold does not have to be stored at home just in a place that only you know about. Of course nothing is without risk - a shocking amount of bullion has been lost in boating accidents from what I read on the Internet <_<

     

    As Jake has pointed out, the danger of owning gold through a company - allocated or not, comes not only from dishonesty in the company but also from the State which may decide to confiscate it for 'the general good'.


  9. Trouble was the goldsmith wasn't audited.

     

    Yes, but transferring your trust to the auditors still leaves you with the same problem. If you don't hold it, you don't own it - brutally simple but true as it ever was.

     

    It is extremely tempting to go the easy route of digits on a screen representing bullion which can be swapped for fiat digits at the click of a mouse but giving in to that temptation has consequences...


  10. Do you not use Goldmoney at all Schaub?

    No, I had an account at BV but wound it up some time ago. I trust third parties to look after digits on a screen but not physical. Didn't we get to where we are now by people foolishly entrusting their gold to the goldsmith as he had a good safe?


  11. The chick with the sun glasses: "38 cents"!!! Mwuahahahahah.

     

    These are the kind of people who will pay north of $10,000 for the ounces that I will sell to them in a few years time. Because they are clueless. (Yeah, I do think gold will become expensive at some stage. Bubble, so to speak. But we are FAR away from that.)

     

    One must begin to divorce oneself from the idea of valuation of an ounce of gold in terms of dollars. I agree that the purchasing power of gold will increase considerably in the future - especially in terms of housing and land and that there will be a 'sweet spot' where:

     

    People with cash want to preserve wealth.

     

    People who do not understand that the system is FUBAR will see the rising dollar price as a speculative opportunity.

     

    Forced sellers of property/land/businesses will not want any residue sitting in cash.

     

    But many of the above will buy into ETFs/remote storage and will lose everything anyway.

     

    The lack of trust between countries is what will keep gold as the ultimate form of wealth. In the future, those Western nations wanting oil or rare earth metals or anything else for that matter will have to settle in gold because their credit notes will not be accepted.


  12. Hey, that's what I say all the time too (here, and on the hyper-inflation thread)!

     

     

    Indeed, a tiny number of people in the West who have understood the complex dollar/oil/gold merry-go-round have been able to accrue gold at a fraction of its real value.

     

    We would not thank the owners of a rigged casino if we noticed that a certain roulette wheel came up with zero more often than it statistically should do - we would just take advantage of it.


  13. I could say 'I thought that too today' as I was walking along this deserted beach on the spice isle, but I'd be telling an untruth. In truth , I was thinking how much I was missing Portugal & could I really cope with a whole month at the isolated end of a beautiful island with a year-round near-perfect climate. Sic, & surprising as I thought I would be loving this experience.

    UK considerations, other than avoidance, are a non-starter. (BTW:- the owner of the house I'm staying in tells me his 'council tax' is about 30 .... gbp/year)

     

    a227592.jpg

     

     

     

    Drifting around Europe in a home on wheels for some years (& not mixing with too many ex-pats) had that effect on me.

    UK group-think programming does mess with the mind. It penetrates the aura no matter how much resistance you think you are putting up. I'm serious. In a more advanced culture those responsible would banished for life.

    EDIT:- anyone else suffering from italics button failure?

     

    Indeed, it can be extremely difficult to stand back from whatever type of insanity is currently gripping the general population. Living in a cave helps :lol:

     

    No, but I often have trouble with the zip on my jeans coming open by itself <_<

     

    Edit: Laura, I thought the whole purpose of going on holiday was to make you appreciate home more - seems to be working out fine but I would recommend 2 weeks in Aberystwyth for maximum effect.


  14. I'm in cash and not at all concerned with the bounce in the markets as it's all very risky particularly property and commodities.

    Once deflation gets a grip on the economy, the government will have run out of options and cash will be the best investment. At that point, people will be screaming to get off the property ladder as they won't be able to afford their repayments, but won't be able to sell as the property market will be in free fall. It will be a blood bath. 40-70% drop in 3 years. You will then be sitting pretty with bucket loads of cash and you willl be able to pick up a property at bargain basement values with probably minimum mortgage.

     

    The FED and BOE will NOT print to infinity and hyper-inflation is impossible for countries with a sophisticated bond market but even if they did bricks and mortar will NOT protect your wealth as history has shown. At some point rates will have to rise as the bond market signals no more printing then they will fall again.

     

     

     

    I think in time, you'll be sitting pretty, but I dare say you will have a few years of snide remarks from friends who are seeing the value of their houses edge up. Once IR's go north, the shoe will firmly be on the other foot.

     

    Good luck.

     

     

    Anyone tempted to sit on currency believing that it will increase in purchasing power would be advised to read this article at zerohedge:

     

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-pos...bal-debt-prison

     

    So, the question of debt default turns from theoretical to quite imperative. If the Federal Reserve continues buying our debt with fiat, it means that the effects of the debt will only be delayed, the dollar will be dropped as the world reserve currency, and hyperinflation is a certainty. If they do not continue buying, then our government defaults, the country’s financial infrastructure ceases to exist, the dollar loses its world reserve status, and hyperinflation is a certainty. The banking elites haven’t just erected a prison, they’ve tossed us in Alcatraz!


  15. IMO, Ther wont be a mania stage in physical gold. Common man wont be able to afford the real stuff when the currencies have hyperinflated. Strong hands and all that.

     

    Agreed, talk of a 'mania stage' is only applicable when applied to a bubble. The fiat price of gold merely reflects the increasing worthlessness of paper. There will be a point in the future when the purchasing power of gold vs oil and land will be at its maximum but there will be no collapse.

     

    Using the last period of the gold bull - 1970s as a reference is not at all useful because the Western economies were at that time basically sound.


  16. I'm calling the bottom here and I'm piling in to a metal that "has no purpose whatsoever."

     

    Anyone else have any thoughts?

     

     

    Every time there is a big correction of the fiat price of PMs, there will be armies of 'creative writers' attempting to persuade 'late to the party' weak hands to swap their metal for dollars while they still can. Those who purchased PMs as a result of studying the big picture regarding unpayable debt and lack of productive capacity of the US cannot be fooled into thinking everything is going to be ok because...


  17. USA QE could be in run off mode by early next year with maturing bonds having to be balanced by a lesser amount of QE so that QE eventually fades and rates rise. If QE2 had not been announced then maturities from the MBS alone would have reduced QE by 200B over just 2010? For 2011 and onwards, treasury maturies will reduce QE annually by about another 100-200B?, that would create a massive drag on the economy so a new amount of QE seems likely to reduce the impact of the run offs while even so QE is reduced and rates rise. One alternative possibility is that China india and Brazil have hard landings and mean the west has to keep an easier policy for longer - but this is not particularly inflationary if the other economies crash because most people are living there.

     

    I have no idea of the real silver story but you can see also other things happening which do seem real which may account for market moves today.

    And call me a cynic but i suspect there there is an entire industry of creative writing out there designed to ensure people want to buy metal they have no purpose for whatsoever.

     

     

    Avert your eyes - this is the really valuable stuff that everyone wants and is in very short supply - get it while you can!

     

    bernanke-printing-dollar-bills-obama-biden-hugging-dees.jpg


  18. Jon Nadler doing his job:

     

    Thus, it must be assumed and, it might be later concluded, that a fair amount of gold came out of recently enriched spec fund hands as they reduced bullion allocations and perhaps opted to augment their exposure to equities instead. The small investor, of course, remains befuddled that the implosion and death of fiat currencies, the end European Union, or the unraveling of the USA has not come to pass. Such investors were recently 'pressured' into loading up :lol: on perhaps much more of the safe-haven metal than would be prudent according to portfolio allocation models such as those espoused by, say, the World Gold Council's long-term studies.

     

     

    He does raise a titter with me!

     

    http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/98651/2011...nd-keep-it.htm#

     

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