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Schaublin

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Posts posted by Schaublin


  1. But we're not seeing this kind of violence. There's been quite a reduction in price volatility.

     

    If gold is being monetized, you'd expect it to settle down against the other currencies and steadily strengthen [along the thin blue line].... which it is doing.

     

    Sinclair seems to have a view of gold where csomic forces are at battle.... angels...mantras.

     

     

    I agree with you on this - pictures of angels with magnets pulling the gold price up (notwithstanding the fact that gold is not attracted to magnets) is so err odd and kitsch that on the odd occasion I do check his site , I worry. A quick recap of public and private debt in the West, soon puts me back on track.


  2. If the red line did represent wages house prices would be around about fair value!

     

     

     

    Not quite fair.. I'm about 2/3rds in stocks. Never trusted gold though, but happy to admit it's proved to be a good investment so far.

     

     

     

     

    Small world this internet place :lol:

     

     

    WTF? You do not 'trust' gold, you have it because you cannot trust other people to honour their promises. Keep up at the back.


  3. Jake did answer your question. The number is just a random number, perhaps Robert Prechter's 200$/oz prediction is used in this context. It really does not matter. We are all on the same path, we are all buying gold. 200$ figure might be theoretically equal to zero when a loaf of bread might be worth a lot lot lot more in $.

     

    I looked back but cannot see Jake having answered this question.

     

    I admire the writings of FOFOA - especially his use of language to explain difficult concepts and have learned a great deal. However, this last part about a paper price of 200 USD or any other price for that matter when no physical is available is something I just cannot understand. When no physical is available for fiat currencies, how can any price be generated as there will be no value at all in paper claims and their price will be zero.


  4. Yes gold will fall in fiat perhaps to less than $200/oz. But there is a big difference. The gold that will fall to less than 200$/oz will be paper gold. If you go to a dealer and pay $200 you wont get any gold. That is what FOFOA was implying in his latest post.

     

     

    I read this and had some trouble following his thinking. Why pick 200 USD as a price? In the scenario that he predicts where physical will not be available at any price, presumably the paper contracts would fall to near zero as there would be no chance of delivery. At this point the published prices at Comex would be completely meaningless - indeed, how could any price be put out - when the whole thing had fallen apart?


  5. I think the use of currency as a medium of exchange and gold as a long-term store of wealth should not be confused. Unfortunately, because of the short attention span of most people, currency is often used to store wealth. With real inflation factored in, ordinary interest bearing savings, dwindle in value but so slowly that most cannot see it - indeed, many think the money is earning them interest!

     

    The slowly boiled frog may soon however receive a nasty sudden rise in temperature which may wake him up enough to jump out of the pan!


  6. I prefer to look at it all practically.... I mean money performs primarily a practical function right.

     

    But the problem is once you state such things as "gold IS NOT a currency, gold IS money" you are taking it into the sphere of theory by stating exactly what you think gold, money and currencies ARE.

     

    By leaving it as "gold functions AS money" one can leave it in the practical sphere.

     

    The problem is this theory is not too well thought through, and tends just to appeal to those who have already bought into the "parallel universe" of the gold bug. :)

     

     

    For someone who has a position in gold, you have a curiously dismissive attitude to others who hold gold. By using the term' gold bug', you are assuming that all the 'bugs' think alike and as for inhabiting a parallel universe, is that the one that is exactly the same as this one but without you? :lol:


  7. I think that 1300 USD is around the time that the dollar price of gold will be recognized more as a barometer of the teetering fiat system. My guess is that around 1600 USD will mark the point when the roller coaster tips over the edge. The self reinforcing loop of loss of confidence, higher gold price - leading to greater loss of confidence and so on.

    Those who sell at 1600 thinking that they have made a good 'profit' will no doubt be rather piqued when their profit turns to dust and they realise that they threw away the only chance they had of preserving their wealth.


  8. I know, but it's not a good idea to write or repeat things which are not true, especially considering BV have had to come here in the past to put things straight.

     

    How do you know it is not true? As I understand it, the BV trading bots offer less than another user would offer. I do not recall a representative of BV ever coming here to talk about their trading bots - only to reassure people that their gold would still be safe even after having taken on the Rothschilds as partners!


  9. I've sometimes got better than the best price available and when I've traded directly with BV there is a "p" on the contract to show this. I remember that they stated in their T&C that they sometimes take the other side of the trade. I've sometimes been charged less than I've offered but never more. I don't know how the word "rape" can be used to describe this.

     

     

    The quote is in italics - it is not me saying this - I am quoting from the link.


  10. I prefer BV to GM as with BV they let me just sit on my US dollars for any length of time. Not so at GM, they asked me to move along with my US dollar position... so I only sit on gold there. :lol:

     

    The trading station at BV is a bit of a gimmick imo, but it is useful for the odd time you want to switch between metals/ funds etc.

     

    Don't you mean that BV have access to your dollars to invest as they wish and pay you zero interest :lol:


  11. some are even starting to get worried about physical allocation in Bullion Vault. This is a sign of the times isn't it......

     

    https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=67184

     

    Someone there raised a good point about the 'buy in at the best price' feature - I also thought it was a cynical trick to play on newbies. I closed my position there some time ago and feel better for it especially after the new 'partners' :unsure: moved in.

     

    https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=67184&page=3

     

    PS. I'm sure this won't affect you, but the "wizard" on their website which is designed to help noobs trade on their exchange is nothing short of a scam. I believe users have a reasonable expectation that this programme will get them the best price available, but it absolutely does not. If you use it, you are trading directly with BV (they don't tell you this) and they basically rape you. I complained to them about it, and was ignored. Another reason not to use them.

     


  12. I keep posting all these great articles & links & yet virtually no replies (I think I have had one reply in 4 threads), makes you wonder who really is fully in & who really has any physical metal imo. ;)

    anyways......another nice article for you all to enjoy:

     

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-futu...obex-2010-09-20

     

    At the moment, there is a “lack of major news to prevent a sell-off in gold,” said Chintan Karnani, chief analyst at Insignia Consultants in New Delhi. He referred to gold’s current rise as “too much money chasing too few goods.”

     

    “Investors are invested in gold ... and they are not exiting their gold investments,” he said, pointing out that “fundamental gold is bearish as there is no demand, but gold has now become a paper asset.”

     

    :o

    :D

    :lol:

    B)

     

     

     

     

     

     

    obviously it won't be a striaght line to the top:

     

    But “technically overbought conditions exist” in the gold market and “a correction of $50-$60 should happen anytime before the next leg higher to $1,376,” Karnani said.

     

    GOM, I am sure there are many who have followed your links - guests as well as members. The guests cannot, of course, say thanks but just for the record; Thanks for the good links!

     


  13. So people just bend over and pay the tax?

    Seems a bit odd, to need 17.5% increase in value before you even break even.

    Also - what's with ebay prices? They seem all over the place but people still bid?

     

    How are people's experiences with storage?

    I've been quoted ~£3-4 a year per ounce for insurance on gold stored in my house, presumably the cost would be acceptable for silver too. Worth investing in a small vault for my house?

     

    If you think that silver is massively under- valued, the VAT issue would not put you off.

     

    Gold IS insurance. The idea of betting that it will be stolen with an 'insurance' company (and letting people at that company know that you have it) is one of the most foolish things I have read on this site for some time.


  14. Help me understand this, please. (I'm not very clever with these things.)

     

    I take the ads to be a good sign that I'm safe to keep buying gold (since cleverer people than me are going to a lot of trouble to do so). When they stop those ads, is it becoming time for me to sell?

     

    It's all in the terminology. When you buy Dollars with Pounds, you are also selling Pounds for Dollars When two fiat currencies are swapped, it becomes quite clear that the buy/sell teminology is purely arbitrary. If You lived in the UK and were used to measuring value in Pounds, you would tend to see the commodity as dollars and the 'real' currency as Pounds - and vice versa.

     

    When it comes to gold, when you think you are buying gold , you are in fact selling paper currency and when you think it is time to 'sell' your gold, you are in fact buying paper currency (the reason for this is that gold is timeless and the ultimate representation of money) the only reason to do this would be if you believed the purchasing power of the fiat currency in the future would be greater. Given the decline of the West, it is difficult to envisage how that could happen.


  15. There was a small rocket breakout in Hong kong if you look at the second square in from 1250 -1255 i have never seen that sort of movement in the asian markets (hong kong)before.I spoke to some other gold investors ref this and it seemed very unusual a prerequisite to the rest of the days breakouts.I still think that while the CONmex is in effect and there is a predominant paper market ANYthing could happen.A major fundamental for me will be the cessation of the incessant WE WANT TO BUY YOUR GOLD ADS i feel that at this point the various elitists will have acquired what they KNOW is the above ground Gold that has been used in jewellery manafacture etc and then the REAL FIREWORK show will start.

     

     

    Not too sure about that. I would guess that there is still plenty of gold jewelery about and perhaps the current 1200 USD fiat price has captured a lot of it but some of that remaining gold can still be teased out of weak hands with a higher fiat price.

     

    At some point in the future, only a complete fool would swap gold for fiat - when they run out of fools, then the ads will cease.

     

    Edit: sorry, I mis-read your post - I thought you had said the ads had stopped now. Yes, agree!


  16. I have thought about this possiblity many many times. Believe me I have. Most 'serious' (no disrespect intended) gold-holders have already factored this into their equations. For instance, what are the chances of the US government grabbing gold from a pivate vault versus the chances of the Swiss or British or Hong Kong governments doing the same? The chances depend upon your own political (and geo-political) outlook. I would say the US is at the top of the potential thief list along with the UK. The Swiss however are probably near the bottom of the list. So we are talking about juristiction now right? As usual, do the calculations and hedge as best you can DYODD.

     

    You might ask: so what if the whole world descided to blatantly steal private gold holdings. Really what are the chances of that? I'm not saying its impossible but I personally think it's very unlikely. That scenario sound most definately be like the NWO-era. What's some sovs and krugs in your attic in maistone going to do you for you in that situtation? Good luck trying to cash in your coins then, you will certainly need it. I think what's more realistic is the US and some of its minions going after the metal holdings in the banking system - which is what goldfinger and others have been warning about. Also FOFOA doesn't believe confiscation will happen ever again, and many GEI'ers (including myself) rate his views very highly.

     

    So thus I wouldn't get so hung up about the whole issue. The major thing to consider is the juristiction of your gold holdings. Was it Arch Crawford or someone who said that the best way to protect your wealth from the government was to live in one place, have citizenship from another and keep some your wealth in a third country. But how many people can do that? Just be cautious and do what you think is best for yourself is my humble advice.

     

     

    Some very well-made points - especially about the UK and US being most likely to steal from its citizens. I also, hold FOFOA in high regard and have read what he has written about confiscation but had assumed he was talking about something similar to the US in 1933. Allocated bullion storage is something rather different IMO.


  17. Regarding allocated storage, I know that many are happy with the legal aspects of this and are convinced that it is a secure way to store bullion. My thoughts are that they well be safe today and tomorrow but I wonder what would happen for example in a currency crisis. A private company sitting on many tonnes of gold is going to look an awfully tempting fruit to pick by the State. The legal technicalities are not an obstacle to the State in extremis - if necessary, the law can be changed overnight.

     

    I expect many have considered this possibility but it is worth remembering that at the precise time that gold becomes a financial lifeboat, someone bigger than you may grab your seat!

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