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Mr Pipples

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  7. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    The ramp up in gold price to 2011 was QE/inflation expectation related. When it was seen that the printy supply wasn't splashing around but was being contained by the banks and used for profiting/speculation on (so inflating) the stock markets, others money tagged that way. And, like DrB said - momentum... I don't think it was lots of people seeing the 'light' and gold as a monetary asset (with a currency crisis coming) and then dropping that in 2011 to just see it as only a commodity again... This year, banister/corrupt politician meddling to cripple the gold markets in India (and China for some time) has also had it's effect. Maybe next year will see the restrictions dropped in India and cost-push inflation start to show more... See what Japan gets busy with.

  12. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    Yes, the GDXJ does have naughty potential - somewhat flawed... Still, I wouldn't disregard it totally on that report.

     

    People could just do their own version of it by, say, picking 10 of it's listed stocks and investing directly. Some of the 'bigger' juniors may have US and CAD listings - if that makes things easier for people re. their brokers.

     

    Doubt I'll bother as got most of em anyways...

     

    Bubb should do one!

  16. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    The only point I really agreed with him on in that article, was at the end where he said something about how the Fed is trying to shepherd money into stocks. Though on the surface we might have some them in common [possible lower prices], I have a fundamentally different approach to him [as you must know if you've read my posts this past year]. I do not see hyper-inflation, I think it is nuts to trade gold [hat tip to gf here.... though I will "trade" - hedge actually - silver]. I do not consider [real] profits to be taken in any currency besides gold.

     

     

    No, I realize you opinions re. hyper,inf',defl',etc differ - I said:

     

    My point is a lot of your opinion doesn't differ, as you describe, from ST's - and you'd realize that if you actually chose to take a look at, what you feel obliged to judge over, with a reasonable effort.

     

    IE all of this you posted:

     

    Here is one of the basic principles of investment; don't buy into strength, yet I wonder if it is simple as that. Shouldn't we first be asking ourselves; how much gold do I own.? How much should I own? And how much am I comfortable with owning? Concrete circumstances often trump abstract principles and I'd say that if you didn't own any gold, or only a little, you should be buying some [building a position] irrespective of the price [who knows it could possible go higher]. That said, I'd also say if you owned 100% gold, you could sell a little, not to trade, but to build a cash hedge against possible lower prices. If you are comfortable with the amount you own, you wouldn'y buy, and certainly wouldn't sell. If the intended audience is goldbugs maybe I am knit-picking here.

     

    I like to share my opinion, in order to see it rationally criticized so that I might add and improve to it. Knives sharpening knives kind of thing... perhaps an unfortunate analogy. :lol:

     

    If we all had the same opinion here, wouldn't this forum be the poorer for it?

     

    Is any one asking you to have the same opinion? It's the quality of opinion that sets the quality of the forum.

     

     

    I don't think you'll find ST fits with most definitions of a Gold Bug - if you look into what he actually says. You seem to be actively trying to tar people with your (mocking) 'gold bug' brush...

     

     

  17. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    Just my 2 cents worth. That's the idea of a forum such as this isn't it... to voice our opinions and perspectives, rather than think alike, no? :)

     

    Yes - but in what regard do you want your opinion to be held? You certainly like to share your opinions throughout this forum - why?

     

    As for my post, I think I gave clear reasons for why my opinion differs to S.T.

     

    My point is a lot of your opinion doesn't differ, as you describe, from ST's - and you'd realize that if you actually chose to take a look at, what you feel obliged to judge over, with a reasonable effort. 

     

    I thought you might appreciate ST's approach - particularly pyramiding buys and sells and the reasons why that likely makes sense in this investing/trading environment.

  18. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    Actually, I just scanned it... so many articles, so little time. Looking at it again, he definitely has got a nuanced approach of sorts in so far as he distinguishes trading from investing and when to buy:

     

     

     

    Here is one of the basic principles of investment; don't buy into strength, yet I wonder if it is simple as that. Shouldn't we first be asking ourselves; how much gold do I own.? How much should I own? And how much am I comfortable with owning? Concrete circumstances often trump abstract principles and I'd say that if you didn't own any gold, or only a little, you should be buying some [building a position] irrespective of the price [who knows it could possible go higher]. That said, I'd also say if you owned 100% gold, you could sell a little, not to trade, but to build a cash hedge against possible lower prices. If you are comfortable with the amount you own, you wouldn'y buy, and certainly wouldn't sell. If the intended audience is goldbugs maybe I am knit-picking here. :lol:

     

     

     

    Perhaps it is fair to say the article, written in gold-bug language, urges restraint on gold-bugs. Fair enough, but I still think we have a gold bug here, albeit flying a little lower and and more constrained. We see the same dubious hyper-inflationary themes. Just my 2 cents worth.

     

     

    I wouldn't trade gold..... silver is much better for this as is more volatile, and even then would only sell [for both gold and cash] and buy it on the really big and infrequent moves.

     

    And it's clear from the rest of your post that you didn't look further than this article (at his website, pyramid trading strategy, etc. http://www.gracelandupdates.com) yet you still feel it makes sense to judge, criticize and harp on 'knowledgeably'. Maybe you're right to disregard so off-handedly though, Stewart Thomson is only a retired Merrill Lynch broker after all.

     

     

  19. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    To be honest, I am not quite sure what to think of this one:

     

    "7. This is the gold rapture."

     

    I'll say it again, he sure is flying high! :lol:

     

    Here's the problem as I see it. If you think the price can only explode to the upside imminently, then this will have the effect of you immediately valuing your money a lot less. You will then want to spend/ invest all of it at once in a rush to gold. This is hardly observing the basic priciples of investment, where one is rational, unemotional and unrushed in their decisions [strategic and warlike... thinking Art of War here]. Need I add hedged? :)

     

    Newbie not so die-hard gold-bugs will take one massive psychological hit, if the price declines on another credit crunch, or on a snap-back in the carry trade, and might be so traumatized, [having gone "all in"] as to sell at the very wrong moment. I'd add that this is why gold may go on another dip due to weak hands/minds, in the mass market, holding it [misguidedly imo] as an inflation hedge.

     

    You might not agree that this will happen, but you would have to agree that it is a very real risk.

    Did you read this article properly RH? He's warning not to pile in now if you haven't got any/missed out. Have you read any of his other articles? I'd say you've totally got the wrong end of the stick in your call on Steve Thomson's strategy and approach. The guy is pro-gold but very cautious in how he trades. Take another look - you can check out plenty of his stuff at 321gold and his website.

     

     

     

  22. SILVER

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    Pix, the spreadsheets I used to use to track this stopped being updated on 8-Oct. VERY SUSPICIOUS. Where is your data coming from?

    My old links:

    http://cmegroup.com/trading/energy-metals/...Gold_Stocks.xls

    http://cmegroup.com/trading/energy-metals/...lver_Stocks.xls

     

    Check bottom of page:

     

     

    http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/nym...ly-reports.html

     

     

    COMEX silver

     

    Report Date: 11/2/2009

    Activity Date: 10/30/2009

     

    TOTAL REGISTERED -2,584,384

    TOTAL ELIGIBLE -1,042,628

    COMBINED TOTAL -3,627,012

  24. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    "The truth is out there" ...but its intertwined with internet content comprising 'basics', 'fact', 'analysis', and 'conclusion'

     

    My training/career is all about distinguishing these four;

    - basics: essential to learn and understand

    - fact: critical to keep up to date with

    - analysis: do your own analysis (think for yourself!), and use the analyses of others only as a source of possibilities

    - conclusion: ignore them all, as you will have reached your own conclusions by your own analysis

     

    This way, you'll not follow any Pied Pipers into oblivion, and you'll have a fighting chance of staying that critical one small step ahead of the herd

     

    Good stuff / good plan.

  25. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    It looked bizarre to me too until I saw this:

     

     

    Look carefully...

    Back at October 2008.

    There was a bizarre show of strength in Gold then too.

    As stocks slid, Gold moved higher at first. A sort of "last gasp" flight to gold as a "safe haven."

    Then it collapsed.

     

    The next few days (and weeks?) are going to be interesting, especially if stocks slide.

     

    Maybe the same is on the cards... But quite a lot's happened since then. Wouldn't bet too much on it.

     

     

     

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