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Posts posted by Mr Pipples
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The problem is that more often than not we read what we want to into charts... or then only read, and then post, the articles that support our own wishes or preconceptions when it comes to gold.
This reminds me of the "theory-laden view of observation" where the viewer always projects their theory [or wishes] onto observations, in order to make sense of/ interpret those observations, and where accordingly one can can never be purely objective.
I doubt whether any of us, whether bull, bear or bug, can fully extricate themselves from this, but being aware of it leads to less dogmatic views.
I read lots (bulls n bears) - don't take any of it as a given and post here what I find is of interest to myself, the theme of the threads and sometimes individual posters. (I originally replied with this link to a post by Pixel8r over on Goldfingers thread.) Saying all that, I do take your point.
Here's an example of flawed logic:What is really scary about gold breaking the $1000 barrier is that it happened in the face of a flood short selling in US futures markets. So while gold was being driven up by Hong Kong buying, it has also been getting killed by unrelenting selling during COMEX hours. As can be seen in the chart below, the quantity of COMEX gold futures contracts has begun spiraling out of control since the end of August.
If Open interest is rising, you could equally argue that there has been a Flood of Buying by Hedge Funds. That would be a more accurate way describing what is going on.
Hedge Funds typically do not have a very long time horizon. So they are long gold "with a finger on the sell trigger." If gold falls, and hits their stops, you could easily see wave after wave of Hedge Fund sellers.
Believe what you want, but I find the article flawed.
Who said it's believed or to be believed? When people post links here (well, when I do) they are sharing what they find of possible interest and relevance. Not necessarily (though they might be) saying the info is to believed. The article may well be flawed. Many 'knowledgeable' peoples writings, posts, strategies prove to be flawed - certainly at times. Doesn't mean they should be dismissed - what puts me off some opinion is when the writer seems to think they're 'flawless'.
Here's another article I find of interest: Are Gold, Oil and the S&P500 having a Seasonal Pivot Trading Low? - http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/articles/a...ot-trading-low/
EDITED: slightly - to remove a little morning grumpiness.
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TBH, I don't think a serious increase in gold 100% guarantees a serious increase in silver - depends on what happens. In other words, I have little concern for golds outlook - I do have some for silver... Don't think silver is such a 'given' as gold.
Saying that, I'm betting silver will do well - and I've got a high % of the stuff!
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I think the markets of gold and silver are going to surprise even the bulls over the coming months.
Thursday, October 29, 2009 Gold Market Reaching The Breaking Point by Eric deCarbonne
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How do you say 'got proper gold? in Chinese? (Mandarin or Wu??? - afraid I only speak Yorkshire.)
Man jailed for illegal gold futures operation in east China - http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90776/90882/6798337.html
A man in east China's Zhejiang Province was sentenced to 9 years in jail for the crime of illegal gold futures operation involving more than 58 billion yuan (8.49 billion U.S. dollars), a local court ruling said Thursday.It was believed to be the biggest ever case of illegal gold futures dealing.
Naughty.
So, might the Chinese soon like proper S&G even more?
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Paul Tudor Jones ♥ gold - http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/10/29...dor-jones-gold/
Here’s his conclusion:In our opinion, the scope for increased investment demand over the coming years is much stronger than the potential for new supply. As a result, incremental new demand must buy gold from current holders. With a macro backdrop that suggests gold is undervalued, we doubt the transfer of gold from current holders to its new owners will occur at, or near, current prices.
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I recommend this guy. His trading style (if you are a trader - of anything) has got to be of interest and his daily updates are always worth a read - even if you maybe don't go along with him all the way.
Thanks for that. Interesting read. Is this the "if your buying here you are buying from me" chap?Yes, that's the fella. But, that quote might not make sense unless you understand his trading method (pyramids for buys and sells - with a core you don't trade). He's very gold focused.
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Perfect storm for silver brewing as antibiotics substitute--Silver Institute - http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/minewe...5&sn=Detail
Silver may soon replace antibiotics as an alternative for healing, and is increasingly gaining ground in the burgeoning field of nanotechnology.Not new news but of note...
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Maybe someone can help me out. I noticed someone say it was easier to search with just one thread.
How do you find the right page?
When I've searched I just get the thread, so the more pages there are the more impossible it is to find the right page.
Search.
More Search Options.
More Options.
Show results as posts.
How's that for you.
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If the banksters start to dump their shorts then things could get rather interesting rather fast...
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Gold ETFs, caveat emptor - http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/10/08...-caveat-emptor/
But should investors really be treating investments in gold and gold ETFs as one and the same?Nice to see FT point out this little detail...
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To be fair, it's just reporting data (though their method of calculation may be up for debate). If gold went down in USD but up in buying pressure it would be saying "Gold still considered a good bet by the market". I notice USD went below 76 for a while.
To be fair, I'd like to see Nadler use this in any way other than as a negative comment on golds performance.
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From front of Kitco page.
For the first time in ages I checked a Nadler article and clocked him mentioning Kitco starting up this new Kitco Gold Index. http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html#RT Gold / $ Index.
Now, I'm sure it's a useful and relevant chart tool to use, but the way this is being pushed seems to be along the lines of 'no, gold is still no good - don't buy it'. FFS - Kitco and Nadler!
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Analysis pieces on the premier national news network plumbs new depths.
FFS.
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Gold Trading Thread #20: October 2009, Is the seasonal run in Gold ending?
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Attack Of The ETFS - Watch for physically backed products to make a comeback as the dollar weakens. http://www.forbes.com/2009/10/01/precious-...ities-etfs.html
I have a bit in SIVR (and CEF). Don't like what I hear about GLD and SLV.
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Thanks to those who emailed me about Ascot. I know the company and own shares.
I have also participated in this deal.
On the upside you are buying gold at 20% discount. On the downside, there is a problem with one of their mines and they are late on delivery, or, worst possible, the company falls apart and you lose everything. That is the gamble.
Ascot Mining PLC - Chassoul Mill Commissioned - GOLD PRODUCTION BEGINS - http://www.kitco.com/pr/1120/article_10032009105022.pdf
The deal: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/5919caca-9979-11...144feabdc0.html
Ascot Mining is offering investors a special deal on gold as part of its attempts to expand its mining production. Investors willing to buy at least 10 ounces can buy at 20 per cent less than the market price, with gold delivery 12-18 months later. -
Why gold if deflation is the threat? - http://blogs.reuters.com/rolfe-winkler/200...-is-the-threat/
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as they are no longer legal currency, i assume not.
IIRC, only post decimal are CGT free. Remember though that G&S bullion/coin is classed as a chattel re. CGT - which makes a difference.
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Federal Reserve Buys More Than 100% of Mortgages Issued in 2009 - http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/federal...sued-2009/28343
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Exclusive Smoking Gun: The Fed On Gold Manipulation - http://www.zerohedge.com/article/smoking-g...ontrolling-gold
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Interesting interview with Jim Rickards, touches on lots of issues.
CNBC
Worth a watch.
GOLD: WHAT'S NEXT? - http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gold-whats-next-0
Worth a read.
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Some one I know well who works for a well known "surviving" investment bank says that there has been a big increase of purchases of gold for physical delivery. Im talking 100s of millions of $.
Gonna happen sooner or later. Got Gold?
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Signs of a Top or Evidence of Strength in the Precious Metals Market? - http://sunshineprofits.com/commentary/19-sep
GOLD
in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs
Posted
Can't post the article as subscription needed - but can post the intro - which contains a statement I see as immediately relevant:
http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/market-...ng-coming/30601