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Mr Pipples

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  2. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    "...reads like BS from a con-artist."

     

    This was exactly my feeling upon listening to this interview.

     

    Thanks for making this point Dr B

     

    We must be careful to be objective, and not subjectively believe the things we want to hear. I hear nothing in this guys description that objectively convinces me.

    From http://www.marketforceanalysis.com/About_MFA.html

     

    Market Force Analysis - What is it?

     

    General

     

    Any economist would agree that it is the imbalance between supply and demand that drives the free market price of any commodity. Supply and demand are usually only estimated on a macro-level; for example, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reports such estimates of world demand and world supply for the energy markets. It is notoriously inaccurate and generally has little to no utility in determining the outlook for the energy market. As a result most analysts are constrained to analyzing price to estimate forward market trends. This is fraught with inherent errors because price trends cannot be extrapolated over long periods of time.

     

     

    Market Force Analysis (MFA) is a unique approach to commodity market analysis (patent pending). A unique algorithm has been developed to extract supply and demand from futures market data. The difference between supply and demand is the market imbalance which is called market force, so named because it is that which drives price. This is an extremely powerful and accurate way of analyzing commodity markets. It brings clarity to past market action and predicts future market trends. It allows the market of any commodity to be characterized as Bull, Bear or neutral and it indicates good entry and exit points for market participants.

    If forward market trends are estimated through price analysis (fraught with errors) then won't that be how futures markets are set? If that's where the data from which the 'unique algorithm' extracts supply and demand (possible?) from, then how are the errors avoided?

     

    Well, he reckons it's going to happen very soon so we'll see if they called it right.

  3. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    Listening to it now.

    Dont get sucked in by these shysters!

    But also, dont reject all their work, some is worthwhile. But most is not. Dig deeper,

    and see if it passes your own personal "makes sense test."

     

    What, in particular, don't you reject, Dr B?

  5. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    I'm with the reckoning that there's a high chance deleveraging is going to kick in again pretty soon. Gold stood up well last time - and I think it'll stand up even better this time (but may still get dragged down some - particularly at first). Think silver will cope better then last time too - but not as well as gold and there's more risk it'll take a fair whack. So, have (this was painful!) swapped a 1/4 to gold and put a 1/4 to $ (in GM - ready and waiting). Didn't like to do it - but I've had more £s of silver then gold for a long time (including during the last round of deleveraging) and this plan seems to make a bit of sense. Also cut back on pm stocks some - but have spread out to lots of juniors. Trying to duck and dive as best I can (got a few bruises but still standing) - we'll see!

  18. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    Holding in London might be considered a plus side if you wanted to collect from their vault. (obviously easier if live in UK) That option might appeal if concerned over collapse of internet service or you could fly to Zurich.

     

    You would have to hold 1000oz to get a LBMA bar which makes Ag a more likely candidate than Au.(unless you are very wealthy) You would, of course, have to pay VAT on Ag by taking delivery in UK.

     

    You can, I believe, switch between vaults at a cost. I have held Ag and Au in both London and Zurich on basis of above to spread risk and peace of mind.

     

    Re. GM and taking possession...

     

    Gold - Can take possession of gold LBMA bars (@400oz) from either Zurich or London VIAMAT vaults after arrangement with GM.

     

    Silver - You can only take a minimum possession of a pallet of bars (30x@1000oz LBMA) from Zurich. You can arrange a representative of GM to meet you there(?) and pick up smaller amounts from the London vault - but at quite a large fee which would be significant if just wanting a few bars. 30+ bars and would be no rep' fee.

     

    Delivery by secure courier can be arranged via GM - expensive. ($250 refundable fee on request - so they don't faff about doing admin for people just thinking about it) Restrictions on delivery address.

     

    VAT on silver will be charged relative to country you collect in.

     

    This info from last year - might have changed. They had to figure some of it out due to my questioning them about it all.

  21. Tracking Junior Miners - Why Are they Underperforming?

    in Mining and Precious Metals

    Posted

     

    Yep, but he's also suggesting that it might be a good idea to sell/short the majors soon too...

     

    He says, 'not yet' - but I'd say that focussing on juniors and lightening-up/selling/even shorting majors/mids would have made sense over the last week or so already. Eg, Yamana, RGLD, GG... Didn't manage that very well myself!

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