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bitbigt

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Everything posted by bitbigt

  1. bitbigt

    GOLD

    Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. 10-20% if PM is healthy given the crazy world we no live in, 50% if you really expect armageddon soon, but 85%?????!!! EDIT: my comments are referring to fractions of a persons total wealth, but if its your savings you're talking about and you have lots of other assets then just ignore me completely (...which is probably a good idea anyway!!)
  2. bitbigt

    GOLD

    I don't care what type of chart one uses - as long as its clear what type it is, and its chosen to suit the data rather than to suit the argument. My initial question instead related to whether we should draw some rather compelling interpretations (that DrB was helpfully flagging up) by using a straight line on a non-log graph. Clearly, there is no absolute answer to this - its just a thought to be pondered. Anyhow: - a quick rant: ...I hate the way the Americans tried to arrogantly interfere with the Scottish judicial system - a quick rant: ...Oil s about to burst up to USD 80, and then I don't what to expect of gold and stocks
  3. bitbigt

    GOLD

    If something goes up a pound day after day then it will plot as an upward diagonal straight line on a non-log graph. But on a log graph it will plot as an upward sloping curved line that becomes more horizontal with higher values. This is because the spacing of the units on a log graph get more and more compressed on the axis at higher and higher values. In contrast, if something increases by some factor day after day (e.g., doubles , triples) then it will plot as an exponentially increasing upward slope on a non-log graph, but as an increasing diagonal straight line on a log graph. Since the stock market can't keeping dropping by the same X dollars every 6 months forever (as it would then hit zero and go negative), I was questioning the validity of drawing a straight line channel on a linear graph. No. But everyone seems to be predicting the imminent recurrance of a collapse in the stock market and a reactive rise in gold as panic again grips the world. Certainly the fundemantals all say this should happen, but I suspect the world will be happy to keep ignoring reality for quite some time longer. So stocks will hold their price or even rise further, whilst gold may slide. But really its 50:50 ...so I topped up on my gold anyway, keeping some cash in reserve.
  4. bitbigt

    GOLD

    Looks good ...but can it really be that simple? Oil inventories are down (so growth happenning!), economies coming out of recession every day, loads of cash burning holes in pockets looking for a home, etc And you've plotted straight lines on a non-log chart. In short - I still feel this bouyant stock market may not fall much or at all from here, and could even gain further.
  5. bitbigt

    GOLD

    It coincided with a MASSIVE jump in the price of oil. That may have raised fear of inflation, and hence prompted gold buying. But I don't know what caused the jump in the oil price.
  6. bitbigt

    GOLD

    Was gonna ask the same question - but you beat me to it Must be something to with the Yanks getting out of bed. Not sure that "US gold rises on technical buying" is the explanation, as gold is up in all currencies. So could be some general news. Or just the Americans reacting to BoE's doubts about UK recovery and amount of QE needed?
  7. bitbigt

    GOLD

    Perhaps not quite enough information. Sorry guys - its all physical, in a bank vault in Switzerland ...all in MrsBigT's name. Same place and ownership for all our BTLs, and our spare cash. And same place as my wife has been for the last month, while I stay here working. Hmmm... (sound of penny dropping) ...I wonder if its a fall in PoG, or my wife leaving me, that I should be worried about ???
  8. bitbigt

    GOLD

    I agree - but feel only 50% confident in this call. Therefore, I today bought another kg (now own 3), whilst having cash in reserve to buy another 4-5 if the big drop does occur. [if it doesn't happen, and I miss the rocket, I'll just pay of a mortgage with the cash]. Now back to work...
  9. bitbigt

    GOLD

    Great work, and very well explained. Thanks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  10. bitbigt

    GOLD

    yep - 1% of the 10% drop I anticipate
  11. bitbigt

    GOLD

    Hi Pixel8r: Please see previous post: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....mp;#entry121707
  12. bitbigt

    GOLD

    Very interesting and useful. Thanks!
  13. bitbigt

    GOLD

    I'll preface my response by pointing out that I believe economists were invented to make weather forecasters look good! So on that basis, my own predictions are probably worth nothing!!!! I'd currently guess that if gold falls... - it'll start and complete somewhere between 1 month and 6 months from now. GBP 500 is my best guess of the bottom, but lower is not impossible. - turn up will come 6 months - 2 years from now. - peak will come 3 years - 8 years from now, at anywhere between GBP 900 - GBP 1500 (should be higher, but the manipulators will not let it reach a 'fair' value of GBP 2500) Of course, in the fullness of time (years, decades, centuries), gold will pass any level one might set in any currency. So yes - the "buy and hold type investor would come out ok in the end". But I don't want to lock up all my wealth in scenarios that take decades to pay me back, or even longer than my lifetime - and never enjoy my wealth. Compared to that option, I'd rather spend it on having a fullfilling life (e.g., home, holidays, families...) or put it into other safe assets (e.g., rental properties) that also ultimately hold their value (if bought when not overpriced) whilst also yielding a monthly income that tracks inflation. Its about balancing options and risk in the bigger picture, not just through the golden lens.
  14. bitbigt

    GOLD

    Yes - I don't think the earthquake will be as soon or as sudden ('exponential') as you and many others here think. Even back in the 70's where the intervention was less well orchestrated or devious, and where inflation was at 20%, it took 10 years for gold to peak.
  15. bitbigt

    GOLD

    Well in my prediction of a drop below GBP 500, I'm in good company... Frizzers also sees a possible/probably drop of USD 100 http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/preci...gold-93306.aspx "The dollar gold price could easily be taken down $100 from here, so be careful."
  16. bitbigt

    GOLD

    No - because I have a cunning plan... We've also still got outstanding mortgages (locked in for 5 years at 2.5%) on rental properties abroad for the same amount of money as we're considerring putting back into gold. So if we miss the boat with gold, we'll just use the money to pay off the mortgage. Having debt is no bad thing in inflationary times. So we can't really loose, other than not making a fortune on golds rising price (but as everyone here keeps insisting, they hold gold to break even in real terms, not to get wealthy) But anyhow...: I still believe I will end up buying gold, and at a very good price.
  17. bitbigt

    GOLD

    I think gold will go down (450) in 12 months, and then double from there (900) over the subsequent 1-3 years. So if I'm right with that prediction, I'd ike to buy near the bottom, and double my money. But buying and holding from here would only bring a 50% benefit. Of course, we could all be wrong, and gold might only go down from here, and never get above 600 again for many, many years. So I'm taking a calculated gamble... If I get it wrong I don't loose any money, but if I get it right I double my money.
  18. bitbigt

    GOLD

    Oh shush ...let me fantasize But seriously, I think this is more than just a USD strength. Gold and oil falling severely in all currencies.
  19. bitbigt

    GOLD

    ...when I incorporate the bond/gilt market factor in to my thinking, my head hurts and smoke comes out of my ears. But seriously, CBs will keep buying these things and keep rates low for another year. That won't be sustainable longer term, however, as the joke that is the USD will become clear to the masses, and the newly elected conservatives in the UK will start to act more responsibly with the country's finances. But this does not mean imminent hyper-inflation thereafter, just high inflation and weakened currencies - plus a decade of pain for UK and US citizens. I'd also suspect some blatant devaluation of both currencies, perhaps 30% each ....or even everyone moving over to the AMERO and the EURO. Naturally, as all this transpires, you don't want to be holding government debt.
  20. bitbigt

    GOLD

    Yep - and when all the signals are pointing in one direction, we know which way the market moves!!!
  21. bitbigt

    GOLD

    ...fluck me, did I just move the market ??
  22. bitbigt

    GOLD

    Perhaps the words "all" and "evidence" were a bit strong. Hopefully my last post will clarify my thinking, based upon never taking the market for granted ...and I know you'll all give me loads of stick for it (just as you did when I sold in March), but what if I'm right :o :o
  23. bitbigt

    GOLD

    I feared you might ask... Other than gut instinct (which usually works quite well, actually), its A. My future predictions (dangerous, but necessary to create and adapt with time/event) are that the 'recovery' is now in motion, and will continue for a year or so. Of course, its as unreal as the recovery that occured between 2003 and 2007, which was built upon ultra-low interest rates. This current recovery is built upon ultra-low interest rates plus QE. Next time around, they won't be any medicine strong enough to revive the patient!! There's also a very large amount of cash in the system (much directly from the QE) looking for a better home than savings accounts, and so we're creating mini-bubbles in stocks and commodities. So for the next year everyone will start to feel secure and rich(er) again, and gold will struggle. Layer in deflation for a year, and gold doesn't have a chance medium term. Finally, the PPT will keep suppressing golds price until they run out of capacity to do that (because they've spent all of germanys gold, etc). But after the next 12 months, the economic 5hit will really hit the fan, and gold will be the place to be. B. The charts. As shown below, I can interpret the USD price of gold in two ways (and I know which one is prevalent at GEI). The red one is self explanatory. But lets consider the blue curve, which starts rising initially in 2005 as people were throwing their money into everything. But it them extrapolates what might have happened without the credit crunch panic - which itself involved two several month periods of extreme fear, causing gold to shoot up during those periods. But between those time intervals, gold fell right back down to the blue curve. And if we're now enterring a new delusional period of happiness and light for a year (see above), I can see gold dropping right back down to that blue line. GRAPHIC: GoldsFuture But I'll probably change my mind again after I've taken my medicine
  24. bitbigt

    GOLD

    OK... these last few days I've had my finger trembling on the buy trigger, and it was more (good/bad??) luck than judgement that stopped me buying. I hate buying or selling unless I feel rather certain, and that's the problem! So I decided to get on top of things, and looked at all the evidence today. I've boiled it all down to a bold prediction: GOLD IS GOING DOWN TO BELOW GBP 500 So I'm not going to buy yet. Now I can get on with my life, and if I'm wrong at least I will know I was confidently wrong :-)
  25. bitbigt

    GOLD

    So I think we largely agree, no? The difference being our interpretaion of how many of what kind of investor are at play just now. But we do agree in the direction in which all this will ultimately develop (more and more 'getting it', eventually!) But that table from P8R though prooves nothing - arbitrary selection of years, crude categorisation into deflation and inflation. One you use that kind of aproach to proove anything one wished to.
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