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bitbigt

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Posts posted by bitbigt

  1. LIFTING THE VEIL

     

    But I can reveal now that...

    I was seeing evidence that a concerted effort was being made to undermine GEI, and sling mud here - mostly at me - to get people to follow GF to another board where he was already posting. If I could prove that, would you feel differently about my action?

     

    If I am wrong about that, then I would be grateful if GF himself would tell me so. In which case, I will be prepared to make a public apology for changing his membership status without a more full explanation, and a timely thank you.

     

    Keeping good long term relationships is difficult even when people meet face to face. Its even more challenging when interactions are only via the written word (I know this, as its a large part of my day job!). I think that is what's behind most tensions here at GEI. The onus must be on the 'leaders' to have thicker skin than a rhino, the forgiveness of Ghandi, and the generosity, patience and diplomacy of an angel. Dr B, you might like to try a bit harder to be this superhuman :)

     

    ...or to put that another way, the users are being honestly and understandably frustrated about a number of your decisions and the way you execute them. But who knows whether I or they would do any better than you at genuinely listenning and being smpathetic to the 'complainers' point of view. I know that you have previously deflected many of my own efforts to be constructively critical, which is why I also spent some time 'elsewhere'. But there's usually just too much good stuff at GEI to disregard it completely :)

  2. NOW SOMEONE HAVE THE DECENCY TO REINSTATE PIXEL8R POSTING ABILITIES AND APOLOGIES TO HIM FOR THE RIDICULOUS PETTY BAN.

    Perhaps Pixel8R should get a 1 banning credit :)

     

    Personally, I think bans are handed out far too readily. [wonder if I'll be banned for saying that?? :unsure: ]

  3. I'm with Pixel, it doesn't matter how acurate some posters are on this site there are others who are infuriating with their continued lack of grace in the face of being wrong for months and months on end.

     

    I think you should reinstate Pixel and give him/her a bit more leeway as IMO the response given to Pixel was very ungracious in view of the accuracy of Pixels chart.

     

    IMO Pixel has given a great deal more to this site than the poster to whom the quote was directed.

     

    IMO there are some on this site who need to stop lecturing and start listening to those with a proven track record of being acurate.

     

    I might also like to point out that it seems to me that a lot of the posters on this site are British but many of the mods are not - I think its an over reaction in many cases as the language is lost in translation.

     

    We do actually swear quite a lot in the UK its is part of our cultural makeup. Now for example if you go across to the North American sites there is virtually no swearing its all hugs and kisses and annoying little smiley blinking icon type things that most Brits would never use. In fact I know it really annoys many UK posters but that is life.

     

    I think a lot of the banning these days is merely a cultural misunderstanding.

    +1 (yes, I know I'm late. But I've been otherwise occupied, and wanted to support the many good and IMPORTANT points made here by CJ)

  4. My post above has been reported and I have been warned again!!

     

    Can nobody say anything they believe to be true on this website?

     

    What thoughtcrime does this come under this time?

     

    Crazy

    You were probably reported by a paper troll because your were getting too close to revealing him/her

     

    But these bans are becoming like ASBOs, some of us are feeling left out because we haven't yet had one :rolleyes:

     

  5. Gold - just shot up $15

     

    I just woke up here in HK to see Gold has shot up to $1153, maybe higher

    t24_au_en_usoz_home.gif

     

    I will investigate...

    1/

    US Slaps Tariff on China; Gold Price Jumps

    Seeking Alpha (blog) - ‎14 hours ago‎

    Back in September, I wrote a commentary in which I linked US tariffs against Chinese pipe imports to the surge in the price of gold (“Has Trade-War Started ...

    2/

    IAF strike kills three Gaza militants posed to fire rockets

    Ha'aretz - ‎2 hours ago‎

    By News Agencies and Haaretz Service An Israel Air Force strike in the central Gaza Strip on Sunday killed three Palestinian militants, including a senior field commander, hours after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed a "powerful response" to any ...

    3/

    California Earthquake Good Practice for Tsunami

    Discovery News - Michael Reilly - ‎40 minutes ago‎

    Saturday afternoon, residents of northern California were violently shaken by a magnitude 6.5 earthquake not far offshore in the Pacific Ocean.

    Gold up in all currencies. But also oil jumped similarly.

     

    It is strange because the rise started and ended so suddenly.

  6. money printing leading to higher inflation, who'da thunk it ?

    Me - once upon a time. But now I'm not so sure!!!

     

    Everyones paying off debt, to a massive extent, and that is extremely deflationary

     

    If QE were to push up the overall money supply dramatically, then I 'd expect near term inflation. But it isn't (QE is just compensating for the drop in money supply caused by debt repayments), so I don't.

     

    If countries other than US and UK get back into growth, then they'll push up commodity prices, and when you couple this with weaker USD and GBP then we'll get uncomfortable inflation. And that's what I do expect, but not for a few years yet.

     

    If government debt, and enduring QE policies, were to cause a complete loss of confidence in the USD (or GBP), then I'd expect a run on the currency and hyper-inflation. That could well happen, but of so (and if no plan B is pulled out of the hat) then it's still probably 10-20 years away. ...and gold could fall quite a lot before then!

     

    That's what I'da thunk anyway

  7. They want a strong Dollar now do they? Why?

    No,

    they want the USD and the GBP to depreciate in a controlled manner. Both are about 25-30% down from their longer term levels, and I think there needs to be the same fall yet again over the next few years to give these nations a fighting chance of paying off their debt. Any short term bounce in the USD is a consequence of increasing risk aversion.

     

    Instead,

    the PPT probably wants gold to fall in value from its current levels. From USD 950 to USD 1050 the rise in gold was just a reflection of the falling dollar (as I kept pointing out, the same was happening for oil). But from USD 1050 to USD 1150 the rise in gold has been a genuine rise in PMs, whilst oil has been stable or falling. Today seems like a deliberate smack down in gold and oil, and not a rise in the dollar. If the dollar rises in parallel, that will just help the PPT in the attack on PoG.

     

     

     

     

     

  8. Where do you think a pullback will take us to?

    Depending on the time of the pullback, I would be looking for £590-odd. Unsure as to wether we can break the uptrend line given the fundamentals of Turdling,

    I can imagine (50% confident) gold hitting a low of between GBP 500-600 over next 6-12 months. So 10-25% down from here.

    I am more confident (80%) that we've just seen a short term top.

    I made the rather strong prediction 2 weeks ago, when gold was at USD 1120 and GBP 675. The 6-7% further increase we've had since then really feels overdone to me (was that the commercial signal failure?).

     

    It seems that after Dubai and the options expiry, the PPT are now choosing today to start their fight back. They've even taken a big chunk out of the oil price early this morning. I suspect we'll see even stronger downward pressure when the Yanks wake up.

     

    Mrs BigT and I decided today, however, not to sell, but ride it out and buy more if/when we get down to sub-GBP 600 again.

  9. I think you over estimate the size of the gold market and under estimate how little money it would genuinely take to move it will style...

     

    I edited my post above which I think you missed, but just to reiterate, you're betting against governments with this line of thought. Whilst a higher gold price would in fact make it easier to move back to a tethered `pseudo gold` standard, you don't have to look this far. All you really need to know is, once geo-political tension snaps, the international pressure to repatriate gold will be immense, this will cause the gold carry trade to unwind with force and the gold ETF lie will become public. It is my honest opinion there will be so much political unrest in the world in the next 7-8 years, very little will be valued as a store of wealth.

    Nothing is impossible - but you are painting a very dramatic picture of the next several years. Developments on that scale would probably also bring global wars (economic and military, perhaps even nuclear). In that scenario, having or not having X kg of gold won't matter. I'd still rather have a safe home with a fair chunk of agricultural land [...plus a 2-year foddstock, windmill, livestock, water purifyer, and big set of guns!!!].

  10. against what ?

    ...against all currencies, just as after 1982!

     

    Sorry I can't let you get away with saying gold will correct by 50% without asking you to justify/clarify this claim. I am of the strongest opinion, this couldn't be any further from the truth.

     

    At some point gold will peak, and then correct. If left to its own devices it might well peak at a few thousand USD in a bubble/mania phase some time this next decade. After that, it will fall dramaticall;y.

     

    But equally the PPT and CB's don't want such high prices to be reached, and are much more able to restrain the price than ever before. So its not at all impossible that gold will not exceed USD 1500 these next few years (i.e., no mania phase occurs), after which global economies get back on track and gold consequentially falls in price.

     

    I think people place too much emphasis on the USD 850 price seen in 1982 as some kind of 'normal high' that we're again certain to reach in inflation adjusted terms. That 1982 high was without todays extreme government/CB intervention in markets, and very much exagerated to the upside due to an attempt to corner the silver market (which caused a spike in all PMs)

  11. As a point of interest, aren't you concerned you may miss out on a parabolic move up in the gold market at some point?

    My goal is to preserve my wealth [which is what we keep hearing gold is about], not to get rich! [which is what many here seem to actually be hoping for].

     

    My past buying/selling of gold has already significantly increased the number of GBP I own (doubled my investment after tax: equivalent of 15 years of max-capacity saving), and so that means I have already secured a future 'preservation of my wealth'.

     

    So now its time to reduce the risk profile of my GBP allocations. For that reason, 90% of my fiat is going into property (UK and Switzerland), plus extending this with ~25% mortgage. Over the next 20 years, this asset class will preserve its real value and bring a considerable income (BTL components). Any nominal value change from here will be minimal (20% down), slow (taking years), and transient (within 10 years prices will be higher - especially Switzerland). So risk is absolutely minimal.

     

    Given the future I am expecting (deflationary pressures for 2-4 years, followed by significant global inflation, especially in UK), this plan will work fine, whilst fiat gets undermined. Meanwhile, I might miss out on a 50% further gain in GBP gold from here, but for this to have a massive impact on my overall wealth I'd have to have 50% of my GBP in gold, and that would mean I couldn't hold these properties and the benefits they bring. Furthermore, gold will drop by 50% in a year at some stage - and one can never be sure of getting out before that drop occurs ...i.e., big risk!

     

    Finally, if we do enter some hyper-inflationary period (I do not think this is at all likely), I still have 6% of my wealth in gold and 8% in energy investments, and could divert additional cash from my offset mortgage savings to add to this. So I have that backup. Plus the house prices will soar in nominal terms.

     

    Most critically of all - I sleep well feeling financially secure and pretty much immune to whatever happens, I have a safe job, and I will have a lovely home for the family. Beyond that, my financial dabblings are just a casual hobby - which is why I post less often on GEI these last several months.

  12. You called the top at £690ish early in the year, kudos. I thought you were buying again in early September, has something specific changed your mind?

    Yes.

    I sold it all at GBP 660 in March. (Half of the GBP then went into CHF a few months later, and this has since gained me another 8% as GBP weakened)

    Then bought back into gold with 20% (of what I wanted to put into gold) about 2 months ago at GBP 570, so up 16% on that.

    If I had put all 10% in at GBP 570, I'd be selling quarter to half now. But with only 20% in I'm just sitting tight.

     

    Where do you think a pullback will take us to?

    Depending on the time of the pullback, I would be looking for £590-odd. Unsure as to wether we can break the uptrend line given the fundamentals of Turdling,

     

    I can imagine (50% confident) gold hitting a low of between GBP 500-600 over next 6-12 months. So 10-25% down from here.

    I am more confident (80%) that we've just seen a short term top.

     

    Can you ellaborate on why you think this "(global politics, economics, gold news, UK/sterling news, chart patterns...)" is the case please? Can you also hint at what price you think gold in GBP might pull back to?

    Not easily in a few lines of text. Its about reading widely, and baking in experience and intuition. Its the 'art' of investing, not the science!

     

    Hence, everything is with a masive ...IMHO

  13. Hi Guys and Gals

    At the risk of irritating some of you, I'd like to say that my take on all the recent action (global politics, economics, gold news, UK/sterling news, chart patterns...) leads me to a fairly strong suspicion that now would be a good time to lighten up on GBP gold holdings (not sell it all, just ease off a little) - IF you want to play that game at the edges whilst keeping a substantial core holding.

    Replies with more that 5 swear words will be ignored :-)

     

     

     

     

  14. The indians obviously don't think the fundamentals aren't justified and they are not known for being a frivolous nation.

    China's and India's recent gold purchases are being taken as a sign that gold is sure to go up in price. I.e., raising expectations that golds price in all currencies will rocket.

     

    But this is wrong. These country's gold purchases are motivated by those country's thinking the USD may fall in price relative to other currencies. Gold may not rocket in other currencies.

     

    So in short, recognising this key difference means that if you live in a USD based country and hold USD cash, then you can protect yourself by getting out of USD and into something else (not necessarily gold, but including gold). If you live in some other country and hold EURO, YEN, etc, then it may not pay off to buy gold.

     

    Personally, I think USD and GBP will share the same fate of significant devaluation. But they are already down 30% over last two years compared to other currencies, and so how much fiurther will they fall and over what time frame. Perhaps their collapse from here will be long and drawn out, taking up to a decade?

  15. I do tend to read more than I post but just wanted to say - Pixel8r and RH, you are two of my favourite posters on here - always enjoy reading your points of view and the positions you're employing, but there does seem to have been a bit of beef between you (particularly from your side Pixel8r) recently and I'm not sure it's the most helpful approach. All of us are here with the same broad aims, can we not at least try to get along?

    +1

  16. Why all this ganging up on RH?

     

    He (and everyone) should be allowed to post whatever he likes, so long as it is not rude nor insulting (which he never is!!!).

     

    Heck... if people don't like his content or expressed views/arguments, then just discard or ignore his posts. Please don't start telling him or others what style of post/reasoning is acceptable.

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