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Perishabull

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Everything posted by Perishabull

  1. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    Merry Christmas to everyone on GEI!!!
  2. I was searching through Martin Armstrong's website (Armstrong Economics) to see what he has to say on Bitcoin. Here are a selection of quotes from different posts of his; 4th October 2013 - "The government is after Bitcoin and focus on concerns about criminal activity to justify taking down what they see as avoiding taxes. In August, New York regulators subpoenaed 22 companies active in the Bitcoin economy, including well-known venture-capital firms like Google Ventures and Andreessen Horowitz, seeking to uncover possible illegality. I have stated before. I do not see where the government will sit on its hands when the G20 is already agreeing to hunting down money everywhere. They think if they can collect taxes, then they will retain power. That will fail." 19th November 2013 - "On Monday, Congress held its first congressional hearing on virtual currencies focusing on bitcoin. As Congress discussed bitcoin, the price of one bitcoin soared to more than $750 apiece. Overlooked was the concern focused on anonymity and lack of regulation. Personally, it is hard to imagine a world where they will allow bitcoin to survive when they are doing everything in their power to hunt down money. Canada is already looking at taxing it and the concerns expressed by Congress clearly place this within the legal definition of what they call money laundering. What once was real washing of illegal money for legal use like the mob buying old 1930s roadside motels and pretending they were fully booked every night to get illegal cash into the system, is now applied to even storing gold or cash in a safe deposit box. Having an account outside the USA is money laundering hiding untaxed money from the government. So bitcoin can fit into that category and what federal judge would rule against the government? NONE!" 17th December 2013 - "I have stated before that the government was allowing Bitcoin to open the door for the coming virtual digital money. Of course, they will shut down Bitcoin once it has served its purpose. They have drawn the line in the sand and now the world’s largest manufacturer of physical Bitcoin coins will no longer accept orders since the U.S. authorities have imposed regulations that cannot be circumvented. The whole thing will center on alleged “money laundering” and what they really mean by that is hiding money from the tax man."
  3. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    No trading today, equity markets are rather quiet, low volume not suited to trading. It's likely to be that way probably all week due to the time of year.
  4. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    From Marketwatch; "Apple strikes deal with China Mobile: WSJ (This story was published by The Wall Street Journal Digital Network's AllThingsD site at http://allthingsd.com/) After years of talks, Apple confirmed on Sunday that it has at long last reached a deal with China Mobile to officially carry the iPhone. China Mobile will start selling the iPhone 5s and 5c starting on Jan. 17, with pre-orders starting this Wednesday. "Apple's iPhone is very much loved by millions of customers around the world," China Mobile Chairman Xi Guohua said in a statement. "We know there are many China Mobile customers and potential new customers who are anxiously awaiting the incredible combination of iPhone on China Mobile's leading network. We are delighted that iPhone on China Mobile will support our 4G/TD-LTE and 3G/TD-SCDMA networks, providing customers with high-speed mobile service." Apple Tim Cook said he is excited to begin working with China Mobile. "China is an extremely important market for Apple and our partnership with China Mobile presents us the opportunity to bring iPhone to the customers of the world's largest network," Cook said. "iPhone customers in China are an enthusiastic and rapidly growing group, and we can't think of a better way to welcome in the Chinese New Year than getting an iPhone into the hands of every China Mobile customer who wants one." Even before the China Mobile deal, Apple has been making some inroads in the giant market. According to Counterpoint Research, the iPhone 5s, 5 and 5c were October's number 1, 2 and 4 top-selling smartphones, with Apple grabbing 12 percent of that month's market share." Seems this is a very big deal for Apple.
  5. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    No Dow or Euro trades yesterday The position after this week's trade;
  6. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    I'm in a drawdown phase right now, the trading has been going really well, and at the point that I thought a drawdown would likely be due, it starts to happen. People who have followed me over the years have probably seen that sometimes I get calls on the tops and bottoms of markets right. It is therefore somewhat ironic that I also that a top in my equity curve occurred at the time that I felt that a drawdown would be due at some point. Let's see what today brings.
  7. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    Dow futures 5 trades, 1 win and 4 losses Euro futures 4 SIM trades, 3 wins and 1 loss
  8. Zerohedge; "Bitcoin Crashes After China Bans New Deposits; PBOC Gets DDOSed In Retaliation Yesterday it was the US Treasury's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network that tightened its grip on businesses that accept Bitcoin. Today, it is China, where the world's largest Bitcoin exchange by trading volume, BTCChina announced that he had received word from "above" that his platform would no longer be able to accept renminbi from BTC buyers. "As of right now, we have received notice from our third-party payment company that they will disallow customers from making deposits into our exchange," Bobby Lee, a former Yahoo developer who co-founded BTCChina this year, told the Financial Times. The result, not surprisingly, is an overnight crash in BTC, which crashed by 50% from $900 two days ago to just $455 hours ago." That's the nail in the coffin for Bitcoin. It'll be in the history books along with Tulips and the South Sea bubble. It's been down to $455 in recent trade.
  9. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    Dow futures 2 wins and 2 losses (1 of the losses was an error entry made whilst trading on a train - far from ideal) There ought to have been a further winning trade but my Internet connection went off-line for a period. There was also a further signal that would have led to a winning trade but that came after my trading cut off time rule by 37 seconds, and I need to be disciplined with plan rules. Euro futures 2 SIM trades, 1 win and 1 loss The big news today was the Fed is due to taper QE3 and my goodness the market loved it. A very interesting day as the news brought a massive influx of volume and liquidity into Dow futures that enabled my strategy to work very well indeed and this appears to have given me new insight into why the strategy appears to work so well on Euro futures. The volume and liquidity on Euro futures seems a lot more stable and constant and this I think is key when using order flow to trade. Although it does move in waves it is smoother and less prone to erratic behaviour often seen on stock index futures.
  10. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    Yesterday's trades Dow futures 2 trades, 2 losses Euro futures 1 SIM trade, 1 loss
  11. Bitcoin down to as low as $680 in recent trade. This chart shows google searches for bitcoin over time. You can see the previous peak in April as well as the recent top. As the price drops there should be more negativity hit the wires. Seems that Estonia is the Johnny come lately of the world stage.
  12. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    1 Dow futures trade today 1 winner 5 SIM trades on Euro futures 3 wins, 1 loss and 1 break even Some nice Euro trades today Charts to follow when I'm back home at the end of the week (I'm trading remotely using Teamviewer and an IPad)
  13. Bitcoin 1 year (click to update) Look at how low the volume is now. That's got sell written all over it. Other charts at https://blockchain.info/charts
  14. BBC "China bans banks from handling Bitcoin trade China has banned its banks from handling transactions involving the Bitcoin virtual currency. The ban came in a notice issued by the People's Bank of China, financial watchdogs and the nation's IT ministry. Bitcoins were a "virtual good", had no legal status and should not be used as a currency, it said. The decision comes after bitcoins' rapid rise in value was called a "bubble" by Alan Greenspan, former US Federal Reserve chairman. Continue reading the main story How Bitcoin works Bitcoin is often referred to as a new kind of currency. But it may be best to think of its units being virtual tokens rather than physical coins or notes. However, like all currencies its value is determined by how much people are willing to exchange it for. To process Bitcoin transactions, a procedure called "mining" must take place, which involves a computer solving a difficult mathematical problem with a 64-digit solution. For each problem solved, one block of bitcoins is processed. In addition the miner is rewarded with new bitcoins. This provides an incentive for people to provide computer processing power to solve the problems. To compensate for the growing power of computer chips, the difficulty of the puzzles is adjusted to ensure a steady stream of about 3,600 new bitcoins a day. There are currently about 11 million bitcoins in existence. To receive a bitcoin a user must have a Bitcoin address - a string of 27-34 letters and numbers - which acts as a kind of virtual postbox to and from which the bitcoins are sent. Since there is no registry of these addresses, people can use them to protect their anonymity when making a transaction. These addresses are in turn stored in Bitcoin wallets which are used to manage savings. They operate like privately run bank accounts - with the proviso that if the data is lost, so are the bitcoins owned. The ban was imposed because bitcoins were not backed by any nation or central authority, said the notice. It added that it was planning to step up its efforts to curb the use of bitcoins to launder cash. Individuals were still free to trade in bitcoins but should be aware of the risks involved, said the People's Bank of China (PBOC), adding that it planned to formalise the regulation of exchanges that dealt in the digital cash. Experts told Reuters the PBOC was moved to make its decision because Chinese nationals were heavily involved in trading the virtual currency. Many believe this is because it helps them avoid controls on trade in the yuan" From the George Soros and his General Theory of Reflexivity thread In this scenario with Bitcoin it's status as a future currency is severely threatened so it will be interesting to see if that move by China marks the top.
  15. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    I've been researching trading other futures markets using the same strategy I use on the Dow, since if the underlying theory behind my trading strategy is correct it follows that it ought to work on some other markets. I looked at the Australian dollar over a reasonable series of trades - so looking at points where my strategy would result in a buy or sell and how trades and profits (or losses) would result; The results show Australian dollar futures are not a market to trade. I also looked at Euro futures and was surprised with the results; These are backtesting results, not actual trades taken. Since the results are impressive I'm going to trade Euro futures on a SIM account for perhaps 2 or 3 months to see if I can replicate these results in real-time trading. I can do this alongside the Dow trades that I make on my live account. I started yesterday; 3 SIM trades yesterday 2 wins and 1 loss
  16. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    Yes, but this week hasn't been good. The position after this week's trade; A drawdown is always inevitable at some stage of course
  17. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    2 trades today 1 win and 1 loss Trading the March contracts now
  18. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    No signals to trade today - possibly due to rollover.
  19. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    5 trades today 2 wins and 3 losses
  20. Perishabull

    SILVER

    Sentiment at end November;
  21. Chart #4 ======= Sentiment at end of November
  22. Perishabull

    SILVER

    Money Flow Index is an indicator that has worked well many times in the past for silver; It's just passed it's lowest point within the last 5 years
  23. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    This particular trade was closed at breakeven. After identifying the opportunity and getting a great entry the position went my way in a big way, but I held too long and an economic report caused a sharp rally in the Dow alongside a sharp fall in the Australian $ - I got out with no profit. The lower part of the chart below shows the gains in the position got up to $1350 at one point before reversing; If you see a decent gain quickly - it's best to take it, but that's what this is about, seeing what is and isn't realistic from these types of trades.
  24. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    6 trades today 1 win, 4 losses and 1 breakeven
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