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Perishabull

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Everything posted by Perishabull

  1. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    2 trades today 2 losses
  2. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    The position after this week's trade
  3. My post back on 19th April outlined this as a scenario (during a post regarding the flaws of bitcoin); from http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=16736&page=3&do=findComment&comment=273206 (Soros General Theory of Reflexivity thread) It's the flaw that creates the top by resolving the contradiction between the price rising and lack of awareness in the market. Suddenly everyone sees the flaw. Bank of America's recent 5th December report on Bitcoins; "Conclusions We believe Bitcoin could become a major means of payment for e-commerce and may emerge as a serious competitor to traditional money-transfer providers. As a medium of exchange, Bitcoin has clear potential for growth, in our view. There is much speculation that Bitcoin may help avoid high taxes, capital controls, and confiscation. The correlation between CNY's share of volume of all Bitcoin exchanges and price of Bitcoin is rising. That said, the fact that all Bitcoin transactions are publically available and that every Bitcoin has a unique transaction history that cannot be altered may ultimately limit its use in the black market/underworld. Bitcoin’s role as a store of value can compromise its viability as a medium of exchange. Its high volatility, a result of speculative activities, is hindering its general acceptance as a means of payments for on-line commerce. Is Bitcoin a bubble? Assuming Bitcoin becomes (1) a major player in both ecommerce and money transfer and (2) a significant store of value with a reputation close to silver, our fair value analysis implies a maximum market capitalization of Bitcoin of $15bn (1BTC = 1300 USD). This suggests that the 100 fold increase in Bitcoin prices this year is at risk of running ahead of its fundamentals."
  4. That top just above $1200 was such an obvious trade - a classic parabola - see my post http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/post 144 - coyote denotes the top It's really a shame there's no decent way of shorting Bitcoins with leverage. I'd have had a field day had there been an ETF out by now.
  5. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    5 trades today 2 wins and 3 losses
  6. "Why should the individual worker pay more tax than the company?" Yes I would love Mr Osbourne to explain that.
  7. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    5 trades today 1 win, 3 losses and 1 breakeven
  8. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    2 trades today 1 win and 1 loss
  9. "Herbalife's Shares Soar To New Highs After Belgian Court Ruling"
  10. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    2 trades today 1 win and 1 loss A very interesting day today. Very heavy shorting from the retail traders as soon as the opening bell sounded yet the market rallied during this period for the first hour (when I was long). More and more piled in on the short side and the market buckled. I had a further trade later on, a short, however in hindsight that was an error. It wasn't a crystal clear cut decision to enter as the picture seemed slightly fuzzy yet on some measure it was a legitimate short - overall it was borderline. Although at the time it was slightly frustrating, thinking of the bigger picture I've made over 100 trades with this strategy and I've only made two errors out of all of those since I started trading this strategy. Overall my trade selection and execution has been first class. I'm still up today anyway, just not as much due to the error. Trading such as this can only be measured over periods of 3 months and more otherwise there is a real risk of getting the wrong perception of the actual performance. So far it's fair to say it's going well, and it appears consistent. Let's see where we are three months from now.
  11. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    This is working very well today with the Dow selling off. The Austalian $ has also rallied. The two appear to be beginning to converge and this trade is very nicely in profit so far. The vertical line on the right is where I went short Dow futures and long Australian $ futures (on Friday at 6pm); [/url]
  12. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    I got a signal to open up a long/short position pertaining to the above so on Friday I went short Dow futures and long Australian $ futures but only on a SIM account (ie it's not a trade on my live account but a trade on a demo account). I want to explore this type of trading to see how I get on first. I'm attempting to capture an expected convergence between these two instruments. The divergence between Dow futures and the currency markets has been visible for a number of days and I used the trendline break of the Dow on Friday as an entry signal for this trade;
  13. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    6 trades today; 3 wins and 3 losses
  14. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/drewhendricks/2013/11/29/8-signs-youre-an-entrepreneur/ Forbes; "8 Signs You're An Entrepreneur Most people don’t grow up wanting to become an Entrepreneur, they grow into it. I’ve found that there are 10 different signs that are very good indicators that you’re an Entrepreneur or an Entrepreneur in training. Passion This is by far something that will qualify you as an Entrepreneur. If you don’t have a passion for what you’re doing, you’ll never succeed. There will be days/months/years when you don’t make any money, you have no customer and everything just sucks but your passion will drive you to keep pushing forward. It’s this passion that will help you to become the Entrepreneur that you’re meant to be! A great example of passion is John Walsh, creator of Americas Most Wanted. He’s been running this show for 23 years. Why does he do it? What many people don’t know about Walsh is his son Adam was abducted in Sears and later murdered. He’s passionate about what he’s doing and keeps going it today because of his passion. His passion led him to a conviction of the murderer 25 years later. It’s passion like this that makes for amazing Entrepreneurs. Would he have pushed so hard to catch criminals had this not happened? We all have reasons for starting a business, find your passion and it’ll push you through the hard times. Doesn’t Take No For An Answer An Entrepreneur doesn’t take NO for an answer…ever. They may concede but they will never give up. They will figure out a way to fit a square block into a round hole. Competitive Nature Entrepreneurs are extremely competitive. Much like above, they don’t take no for an answer and they are unwilling to lose. It’s not in your nature. You can’t, because if you do… well that’s not even possible. Many companies are formed out of such competitive natures. They feel like they can do a better job. A good example of this would be Google GOOG -0.2%. There were 100′s of other Search Engines out there before they started. Larry Page and Sergey Brin believed they could build a better search engine than all the others combined and because of their competitive nature, they would not lose to anyone. Think of how they crafted it, Page Rank. They were ranking pages. They were making pages compete against each other. It’s been a competition ever since. Enneagram = #1 If you haven’t taken the Enneagram test, you should go take it today. This is a personality test that will tell you what type of a person you are, what career choice would be best for you and what type of a partner you would best fit with. The test, which is a bit intense consists of 100′s of questions. It will tell you what type of a person you are normally, and what type of a person you are under stress. They have a free version that should take you no longer 5 minutes. It’s well worth your time. Most Entrepreneurs are number 1, The Reformer. They are principles, purposeful, self-controled and perfectionists. Does this sound like you? Take the test and find out. Self-Starter When I was starting my Entrepreneurial career I watched as my boss Lane Livingston pull into work at 7am every morning and not leave till 6pm. He would always tell me that he “got the majority of his pressing work done before anyone showed up.” It’s self starters like Lane that motivated me to start work daily at 630am. It’s true, you get the majority of your work done before anyone even shows up. Ever since he taught me this I have started work early. Self-Starting isn’t just getting up early. It’s working your tail off day and night on things that are important. Entrepreneurs are people who tackle projects as they come up and finish them. They don’t have someone looking over their shoulder. If they don’t get it done, they don’t have a place to live. They put everything on the line. Think Outside The Box You’re going to have to think outside the box now days if you want to change the world. Founder of Amazon Jeff Bezos said “Entrepreneurs must be willing to be misunderstood for long periods of time.” I like to call this thinking outside the box. If you just think inside the box, nothing will ever change. You have to be willing to take chances on crazy things. Einstein was considered crazy for years before he proved the theory of relativity, he later received the Noble Prize for his crazy findings. Bezos left his well paying job at a hedge fund in NYC to start a company out of his garage that would later be called Amazon. He left his job because of a law that passed that said retailers didn’t have to collect taxes in states where they didn’t have a physical presence. Brilliant or stupid, you ask me? Unpredictable Most entrepreneurs plans change by the minute. You have to if you’re going to get ahead in this World. You will truly know that you’re an Entrepreneur if your business life is a little unpredictable. ”Entrepreneurs have to pivot consistently” according to Eric Ries of Lean Startup. This is what will dramatically improve the odds for success. Strong People Skills To succeed in business you have to be willing to communicate. Communication is one of the keys to success and every Entrepreneur should have this. I will put a caveat on this though. There are many Entrepreneurs that aren’t good at this but team up with someone that is VERY good at this. An example of this would be Mark Zuckerberg. When he started The Facebook he didn’t quite have the skills to make things work. I believe it was more business skills that he needed in the beginning more than money, you can get money anywhere. He needed Edwardo Saverin to be the business end and people end of the company. If you don’t have people skills you need to find a partner with them. Someone on your core team needs to have strong people skills in order to succeed. Remember, being an Entrepreneur is neither a part-time or a full-time job. It’s a lifestyle."
  15. Perishabull

    Commander T's Diary

    Imbeciles, all of them.
  16. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    The position after this week's trade; Trade stats for November;
  17. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    The long term picture S&P 500 futures NASDAQ 100 futures Dow 30 futures Russell 2000 futures
  18. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    One thing is for sure - something with the violent volatility of Bitcoin does not make an effective currency. The creator of Bitcoin appears to have been thoughtful in areas of security (the block chain), inflation (monetary base steadily increases up to fixed limit), flexibility (trades can occur through multiple exchanges and bit coins can be split into tiny fractions) but extreme price volatility doesn't appear to have been considered (at least not as a problem). Why might that be.....?
  19. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    1 trade today 1 win No trading tomorrow, it's thanksgiving, and unlikely to trade Friday given its likely to be quiet and futures markets close early. Happy thanksgiving to my American friends!
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