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Perishabull

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Everything posted by Perishabull

  1. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    Is Bitcoin going to overtake gold as a store of value? If it overtakes gold in price that would be completely absurd.
  2. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    6 trades today 3 wins and 3 losses
  3. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    2 trades today; 2 losses
  4. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    Bitcoin is currently $809; Price touched $851.23 yesterday with the highest volume since inception - 90,583
  5. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    Interesting chart in the comments section;
  6. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    When the last bear turns bull.............. Zerohedge; "Hugh Hendry Capitulates: "Can't Look At Himself In The Mirror" As He Throws In The Towel, Turns Bullish "I cannot look at myself in the mirror; everything I have believed in I have had to reject. This environment only makes sense through the prism of trends." - Hugh Hendry First David Rosenberg, then Jeremy Grantham, and now Hugh Hendry: one after another the bears are throwing in the towel. As Investment Week reports, speaking at Harrington Cooper's 2013 conference this morning, Hugh Hendry said "he is no longer fighting the two-way feedback loop which is continuing to boost risk assets." The reflexive feedback loop envisioned by Hendry is the following and centres on the currency war being played out between the US and China, "in which US QE prompts dollar-denominated investment to head to China, and China fights the resulting upwards pressure on its currency by manufacturing an investment boom. Hendry said this creates a "global supply glut", leading to falling US inflation expectations (as this supply far outweights US domestic demand) - which in turn prompts the Federal Reserve to loosen policy once again." Rinse. Repeat." "The manager acknowledged his changing stance may be viewed by some investors as a 'top of the market' signal, but said he is not concerned by the prospect of a crash. "I may be providing a public utility here, as the last bear to capitulate. You are well within your rights to say ‘sell'. The S&P 500 is up 30% over the past year: I wish I had thought this last year." "Crashing is the least of my concerns. I can deal with that, but I cannot risk my reputation because we are in this virtuous loop where the market is trending."
  7. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    There's a situation in the markets that interests me at the moment; I think there is potential here for some form of short term top in equity futures however it's not confirmed yet, for it to be confirmed I am looking for Dow Jones futures to break decisively below it's recent low, the bounce off the trend line that occurred yesterday. At the moment I'm thinking that if I get that trigger of the trendline break then shorting Dow Jones futures and hedging with long Australian dollar futures would be the trade. These opportunities come along quite regularly but since I have no experience with this type of trading I will be trying these equity futures / currency divergence trades on a SIM account to see how I get on first. The $ value of each E-Mini Dow Jones futures contract is $80185 whereas each Australian dollar future is $91570. If such a trade was initiated I could try 7 E-Mini Dow Jones contracts and 6 Australian dollar contracts in order for it to be as dollar neutral as possible although that would still create a position with a slight downside bias. Contract spec; "AUD/USD Futures Contract Size 100,000 Australian dollars Contract Month Listings Twenty months in the March quarterly cycle (Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec) Settlement Procedure Physical Delivery Daily FX Settlement Procedures (PDF) Final FX Settlement Procedures (PDF) Position Accountability 6,000 contracts Ticker Symbol CME Globex Electronic Markets: 6A Open Outcry: AD AON Code: LA View product and vendor codes Minimum Price Increment $.0001 per Australian dollar increments ($10.00/contract). $.00005 per Australian dollar increments ($5.00/contract) for AUD/USD futures intra-currency spreads executed on the trading floor and electronically, and for AON transactions. Trading Hours CME Globex (ETH) Sundays: 5:00 p.m. 4:00 p.m. Central Time (CT) next day. Monday Friday: 5:00 p.m. 4:00 p.m. CT the next day, except on Friday - closes at 4:00 p.m. and reopens Sunday at 5:00 p.m. CT. CME ClearPort Sunday Friday 5:00 p.m. 4:15 p.m. Chicago Time (CT) with a 45minute break each day beginning at 4:15 p.m. Open Outcry (RTH) 7:20 a.m. 2:00 p.m. Central Time (CT) Last Trade Date / Time View calendar 9:16 a.m. Central Time (CT) on the second business day immediately preceding the third Wednesday of the contract month (usually Monday). Exchange Rule These contracts are listed with, and subject to, the rules and regulations of CME. "
  8. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    The position after this week's trade;
  9. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    2 trades today; 1 win and 1 loss
  10. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    22nd May 2013 NASDAQ 100 futures; (intermediate top) 3rd May - 12th June 2013 (Intraday volume); 10th May 2013 - 8200>7500 13th May 2013 - 7500>18000 14th May 2013 - 18000>55000 15th May 2013 - 55000>65500 17th May 2013 - 65000>65000 20th May 2013 - 65000>67000 21st May 2013 - 67000>75000 22nd May 2013 - 75000>104000 ~ 29 23rd May 2013 - 104000>112000 ~ 8 24th May 2013 - 112000>115500 ~ 3.5 28th May 2013 - 115500>124000 ~8.5 29th May 2013 - 124000>180000 ~ 56 30th May 2013 - 180000>190000 ~10 31st May 2013 - 190000>253000 ~ 63 5th June 2013 - 253000>249000 ~ 4 6th June 2013 - 249000>246000 ~ 3 7th June 2013 - 246000>254000 ~ 8 10th June 2013 - 254000>251000 ~ 3 11th June 2013 - 251000>244000 ~ 7 12th June 2013 - 244000>235000 ~ 9
  11. Perishabull

    GOLD

    Those all in on gold must be doubting themselves now.
  12. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    3 trades today: 2 wins and 1 loss
  13. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    3 trades today 3 wins Unusual day in terms of order flow, possibly similar situation to previous intermediate top in US equity markets but since I'm away from home I'm trading remotely so unable to do proper analysis until Friday when I'm back home.
  14. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    5 trades yesterday 2 wins and 3 losses
  15. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    3 trades today; 1 win and 2 losses
  16. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    I've looked at nearly two months data for NASDAQ 100 futures over the weekend with a view to seeing if the current strategy I'm trading using Dow Jones futures would also work on that market. It doesn't seem too encouraging so far, I think I'll need to make some adaptations to it, or perhaps I'll do some research on Russell 2000 futures instead, when I have more time.
  17. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    After this week's trade This week was bookended by losses on Monday and today
  18. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    4 trades today; 1 win and 3 losses
  19. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    When I looked back over the last three years of this trading journal I realised that there are really three distinct types of trading available to me based on my analysis work over the last 3 years; 1. Trading an edge on an intra-day basis. 2. Trading divergences between currency and equity index markets and divergences between individual equity index markets. 3. Special situations identified where a large opportunity develops in a specific market. 1. Refers to my day to day trading that I regularly write about on these pages. 2. Relates to scenarios such as the following; Stock index future divergence from currency markets; and Divergence between stock index futures 3. Relates to special situations such as the following; On 7th April 2012 I identified a bubble in the relative cost of energy per MMBtu when comparing Crude Oil to Natural Gas, the point where the trend in the ratio broke signalled the low in Natural Gas The ratio in log of Crude Oil (cost per MMBtu) to Natural Gas (cost per MMBtu) shown in comparison to Natural Gas;
  20. Sounds good, keep us posted.
  21. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    3 trades today; A win, a loss and a break-even
  22. Perishabull

    UK House prices: News & Views

    I saw an interview recently with Kris Hopkins MP, the current housing minister. He was being quizzed on whether the Help to Buy scheme would perpetuate another housing bubble. He explained that we were nowhere near a bubble, his justification was that housing transactions are only 60% of the level they were at pre-crash. So his benchmark for 'normal' volume is the euphoric frenzied activity prior to a crash. Surely he's not being serious. It just seems to be unofficial government policy to keep the housing plates spinning eternally. I've just been to his parliamentary web page, Kris has a degree in communications and cultural studies from Leeds University so clearly he is the right person for this job, ie stating the Help to Buy scheme is for one reason rather than the actual real reason.
  23. There's a lot of sound general trading information in the following video from a professional futures trader, much of it makes a lot of sense irrespective of which markets or instruments you trade;
  24. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    Good results today; [/url] 4 wins, 2 losses and one closed early near breakeven. As previously mentioned, for this strategy, my historic ratio of wins to losses is typically 1 : 1, with some movement. Days like yesterday and today push the ratio in the right direction. I'm doing some research to see whether this type of strategy could be used trading NASDAQ 100 futures, I'm aiming to get most of it complete at the weekend, it's time consuming work to do it properly.
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