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Perishabull

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Everything posted by Perishabull

  1. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    Ok, so here now updated to yesterday's trade; The lower chart is a simple moving average measuring the average number winning trades, so if it is 0.5 as it is now, it means that broadly 5 of the previous 10 trades were winners. What's quite interesting about this is that I actually don't think the performance is very good at the moment, it seems quite mixed yet the equity curve runs higher. If this method of measuring performance is effective then what it means is that since the 100th trade up until now the strategy has performed on balance at the midpoint of potential performance yet there were some very nice profits made during that period. I think that is quite interesting. The three month point is coming by end of October, that's what I decided would be a reasonable timeframe for testing the performance and at this point it's a go for the start of November. Last few weeks I've been really busy and that has left little time for this - my trading and analysis which I love. The skills and growth I achieved as a result of the work I put into trading and analysis transferred across into my professional life. I developed a strong work ethic as a result of all the hundreds of hours I put into trading yet there was not one minute I spent on anything related to trading that ever felt like work.
  2. Perishabull

    GOLD

    May be a buy signal....?
  3. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    Updated chart from last weeks trade It's been a hell of a grind but still an up period which is good (to point out the obvious). Some of the eagle eyed among you may have noticed this chart is slightly different from before - this one factors in the commission to give a more accurate reflection. The performance of the strategy is in a diminishing phase right now as evidenced by the 10 period moving average of trade success, despite that it's been a profitable period, although very much 3 steps forward 2 steps back. If these reckless folks on capitol hill don't get it together then I reckon the markets could get a real fright which will make trading interesting (challenging perhaps).
  4. Perishabull

    Ray Dalio's Principles of Investment

    Perhaps it could be merged with this one http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=15517&p=230573
  5. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    In fact a 13 period moving average on the lower chart would have worked particularly well - I'll keep an eye on that. Thanks happy.
  6. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    Here are the results after 2 months; The chart below is a 10 period moving average of the run of trades, so it's really a moving average showing how the strategy fluctuates between winning and losing phases. On the lower chart you can see that by trade 40 the vertical scale reaches 0.1, this reflects that of the 11 trades prior to that point, 10 were losers. Similarly by trade 80 the vertical scale is 0.8, reflecting that of the 10 trades prior to that point, 8 were winners, 2 were losers. It's an interesting way to look at the strategy. I suppose it could be used as some sort of filter but I think if you start trading the equity curve it would destroy or interfere with the efficiency of the system in a negative way. It just adds another layer where potential error can occur. I've often thought the that perfect strategy would be one where the performance moves like a sine wave; and of course a sine wave is easily traded. I'm running this for another month so I am looking for a continuation of the positive upward trend.
  7. Perishabull

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Chelsea BS are offering a 5 year fixed rate for 2.69% (75%). Unbelievable. I'm rather doubtful that these same low rates will still be around when we are due to switch to another deal in April 2015....
  8. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    Looking a bit healthier now; 6 weeks of the test period to go.
  9. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    I'm continuing from where I left off prior to my holiday with the live test of a trading strategy, the results so far; It seems pretty mixed but I think it's probably wise not to judge it this early since these are only the results after around 45 days, and that would be the case whether or not the results were good or bad (although clearly if they were atrocious it wouldn't be encouraging). I think after 3 months I will have a good idea about the strengths and weaknesses, so at the start of November I will be in a far stronger position. I'm not too enamoured by the large drawdown seen but then of course the flipside of that is the last few days which has seen a run of many winning trades. Objectivity is key to any analysis. For anyone new to my blog, I have been trading futures for over 2.5 years on and off and have been consistently breakeven, I'm testing a new strategy using a SIM account to assess a new methodology, if I get sufficient confirmation validating it I will go live. Really by 1st November I will have a clear view on whether it works or not, I am keen to trade it but common sense dictates positive results should proceed a commitment to capital in the market.
  10. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    The situation in the previous post is really the reverse of the divergence set up that completed around the 8th August; It certainly pays to watch AUD/JPY, EUR/USD and AUD/USD as they can often lead equity markets.
  11. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    The anatomy of a turn; Here we see Dow futures making a lower low whilst the Euro, Australian dollar and AUD/JPY make a lower high. The first vertical dashed line on 28th August marks the day when the markets turned up in unison, the second on 3rd September with all the markets moving up to confirm the divergence.
  12. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    He's some guy although he's retired from it now. If I can make it to 100 I'll be a happy man! Never mind running a that age!
  13. Perishabull

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Well perhaps Flipper might be interested? After all house prices are rising at the "fastest rate since 2010" according to the Beeb. (This is really a headline for the Daily Express) "UK house prices 'rise at fastest rate since 2010' UK house prices have risen by 5.4% in the year to August, according to the Halifax's latest house price survey. It is the highest annual rate since June 2010. On the Halifax's measure, the average price of a house also went through the £170,000 mark for the first time in five years. However, the figures are still well below the peak of the market in August 2007, when the average price was almost £200,000. The Halifax said housing market activity was up thanks to an improving economy, low interest rates, and government-backed schemes such as Help to Buy. Earlier this month the Nationwide said house prices in August were rising at an annual rate of 3.5%, slightly slower than in July. The Nationwide compares prices in one month with the same month a year ago. However, the Halifax compares a three-month period with the three-month period in the previous year. Continue reading the main story UK house prices Year on year % change Martin Ellis, the Halifax's housing economist, said: "Overall, house prices are expected to rise gradually over the remainder of the year." The Halifax believes below-inflation pay rises "are likely to act as a brake on the market". Property bubble The Halifax estimates the average price of a house or flat in the UK is now £170,231. The last time house prices were higher than £170,000 was in September 2008. The number of mortgage approvals for house purchases - an indicator of completed house sales - rose by 10% between the first and second quarters of 2013. Continue reading the main story House price calculator Use our calculator to see where you can afford to rent or buy In July alone there were 60,600 approvals, the first time the number has exceeded 60,000 since 2008. The rise in prices and market activity, coupled with the Help to Buy scheme, which offers a government-backed loan of up to 20% of the price of the property, have increased fears that the country could be heading for another property bubble. But last month Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, said he was "acutely aware" of the risks, and had a "toolkit" of measures he could employ to combat unrestrained mortgage lending. Matthew Pointon, property economist at consultancy Capital Economics, said: "A short-term imbalance between housing demand and the number of homes on the market is driving price increases. "But the rise in wholesale interest rates seen over the past few weeks may soon start to feed through to mortgage rates, dampening demand." There are already signs that mortgage rates may have bottomed out, with some lenders increasing rates earlier this week." Well isn't this just marvelous news for all those bright young things with newly minted degrees and tens of thousands of pounds of student debt.
  14. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    Equity market comparison
  15. Perishabull

    GOLD

    Time for a brand new rally.
  16. Perishabull

    SILVER

    Have the silver bugs woken up yet? Look, signs of life..........................well perhaps............., either that or just a load of shorts having their stops taken out.
  17. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    That was a turn in equity markets at that point
  18. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    47m square 1 bed flat in Monaco 1.5 million Euros
  19. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    Hmmm I wonder whether I'll get wifi down on the beach...........
  20. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    On tarmac at Heathrow just waiting for flight to Nice to take off, just had a successful short complete that I placed remotely using my mobile. Isn't technology wonderful!
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