Jump to content

Perishabull

Administrators
  • Content Count

    3,447
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Perishabull

  1. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    I'm looking for all these markets to head lower now, to confirm a turn
  2. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    Trade 7th August Two trades today, both losses for a loss of 120 per contract.
  3. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    The CME group has a trade similation game on their website; It's quite disingenuous since it implies trading is all about reacting to news reports - it's also easy to make money so it's a bit upside down all in! Here's the link if you have 2 minutes to kill - http://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/trading_simulation_game/start.html
  4. For anyone this isn't aware of the Ackman vc Icahn saga watch this - it's pure comedy gold RE Herbalife. I was trading the day this happened and happened to have CNBC on that day... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=068YtjdZTY0
  5. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    Trade 6th August There was one final trade today, a long, I closed it just before the close at breakeven. 5 trades today, 3 wins, 1 loss and 1 breakeven. A gain of 240 per contract.
  6. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZR-3QoikTQ&feature=youtu.be
  7. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    Trade 5th August 1 trade today, a win for a gain of 100 per contract
  8. Surely it must be time for the Euro to collapse? EUR/GBP (Double top) Especially since I'm off to off to the south of France soon, damn pound has been very weak of late against the Euro.
  9. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    It's not sped up, it's me drawing trendlines outside market hours then scrolling along, rinse and repeat, it's just to check the quality of the recording, how it works etc It's actually pretty straightforward.
  10. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    I've been looking at other methods of capturing what I'm doing in terms of live trading and may post some recordings when I'm in trades / concluding trades and so on, I recorded the video below just as a test, it doesn't really show anything. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZY7RAoUb0Q
  11. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    From his comments under LONG TERM; "When Int. v concludes, probably this month, this will end Major wave 3. A Major wave 4 correction of about 10% should follow. Then an uptrending Major wave 5 will end Primary wave III. A Primary wave IV correction should follow that. Finally, an uptrending Primary wave V should end the bull market in late-winter to early-spring of 2014. Until then the market continues to move higher." So thinks a 10% correction may be starting this month, that's a big call.
  12. Perishabull

    SILVER

    The tumbleweed indicator. For the uninitiated, I post the tumbleweed when there has been a barren period (ie no posts on this topic for a while). Since this is likely a reflection of negative sentiment in the market it's good contrarian indicator. Up until the last couple of posts there had been a period of just over 5 weeks without posting on this topic... But how good is it as an indicator?
  13. Perishabull

    SILVER

    Must be time to buy then!
  14. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    Trade 2nd August 3 trades today, one loser and two winners for a gain of 140 per contract. Weekly totals 15 trades 8 wins 7 losses Gain of 380 per contract for the week
  15. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    You read my mind. Just briefly - my take is that if the markets are approaching a top then I would be looking for the EUR to continue lower then a break lower in equity markets to follow that would confirm the recent equity market highs as unvalidated divergence and therefore some form of short term or intermediate top having been formed. I'd also be keen to see divergence between the equity markets, eg for the Russell to be lower than the recent high in mid to late July with the others still above, and I don't see any divergence at this point;
  16. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    Trade 1st August Three trades today, two losses and one win for a loss of 20 per contract.
  17. Good lord, what an idiot Ackman has been in actually declaring to the market the size of his short position; Short interest on Herbalife; "Fresh Squeeze? Ackman Questions Soros' Buy of Herbalife Read more: http://www.foxbusine.../#ixzz2agoIbxf4 Are some investors manufacturing a “short squeeze” in shares of Herbalife (HLF) in order to force activist investor William Ackman to capitulate on his massive bet against the health-product manufacturer? Those representing Ackman think so, and they’re pressing officials in the New York office of the Securities and Exchange Commission to investigate, people with knowledge of the matter tell the FOX Business Network. Ackman’s representatives are pointing to what they say is the curious timing of the latest investor to take a big stake in the company — and drive shares of Herbalife higher, thus further eroding Ackman’s short position (in a short sale, investors make money betting that stock prices will decline.) On Monday, hedge fund titan George Soros took a large “long” position in the company, joining investor Carl Icahn and others who are also betting against Ackman, people close to the matter say. Ackman’s legal representative told SEC officials that Soros' position came as his representatives held a series of “idea meetings” with other potential Herbalife investors. Shares of Herbalife have soared more than 44% since July 1; on Monday, Herbalife reported strong second-quarter earnings prompting further gains. Shares gained more than 8% on the Soros news."
  18. Looks like Ackman is screwed now - the sharks are circling; http://www.marketwatch.com/story/herbalife-shares-jump-7-on-news-of-soros-stake-2013-07-31-11912729 "Herbalife shares jump 7% on news of Soros stake NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Herbalfe Inc. HLF +9.09% shares jumped 7% on news that billionaire investor George Soros has taken a large long position in the firm, according to a report in CNBC. This pits yet another billionaire investor against activist investor and Pershing Square founder Bill Ackman who has famously called the firm an illegal pyramid scheme, a charge the firm denies. Ackman, who has reportedly shorted 20 million shares in the global nutrition and weight management firm, has questioned several financial aspects of the firm. Soros joins outspoken billionaire Carl Icahn as the latest high-profile investor to take a stake in Herbalife."
  19. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    Trade 31st July Two trades yesterday, 1 win, 1 loss for a gain of 40 per contract
  20. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    First stop, Monaco for 2 nights....
  21. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    DJIA futures Trade 30th July 4 trades today, 2 wins, 2 losses for a gain of 80 per contract.
  22. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    Talking of babies, Mrs PositiveDeviant is pregnant so when it comes to the trading I better step on the accelerator pedal now in terms of developing something that works, since time will be at even more of a premium in the future!
  23. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    It's been some time since I've worked on my trading but I had the opportunity over the last few days. I've been travelling a lot with work but that's finished until early September. I've become interested in order flow, specifically looking for signatures in the order flow that enhance understanding about what the 95% are doing. 95% of futures traders lose money but clearly they don't all at the same time, there is some form of distribution of losses involved. I would intuitively expect an apex of losses at specific points for those 95% at significant turns relative to the timescale examined. Using a similar methodology I thought the markets had topped on 22nd May; And in fact they had topped, although it's clear this was only an intermediate top; DJIA futures (1 year); DJIA (same chart in closeup showing 22nd May) So at the weekend I finished an analysis of trading signals over a 3 month period, using data from two different providers. The technique shows a positive expectancy that looks worth pursuing. What I intend to do is test it using a SIM account in order to check if the results from the backtest are replicated in live testing. Interestingly the best results come by having a profit target that is only 67% greater than the amount risked per trade. The ideal scenario is that this is done over a clean consistent period of months however we are off on holiday to the Côte d'Azur for 18 days in August so it may well be that I need to extend the testing period to be sure to arrive at a statistically valid result. So I started with the live testing yesterday; I will be trading the strategy using DJIA futures. I will be annotating 1 chart per day traded, with all trades. Trade 29th July 3 trades yesterday, 2 wins and one loss for a gain of 140 per contract.
×