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Perishabull

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Everything posted by Perishabull

  1. Perishabull

    GOLD

    If Lawrence Summers gets the Feb job it could spell further trouble for Gold; Robin Harding of the Financial Times: “Lawrence Summers made dismissive remarks about the effectiveness of quantitative easing at a conference in April, raising the possibility of a big shift in US monetary policy if he becomes chairman of the Federal Reserve. “QE in my view is less efficacious for the real economy than most people suppose,” said Mr Summers according to an official summary of his remarks at a conference organised in Santa Monica by Drobny Global, obtained by the Financial Times.”
  2. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    Yes, I just hit the 5000k mark today thanks. I usually listen to dance music, something with a fast beat. Ritchie Hawtin's a favourite at the moment. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sui24hHDZDI How's the trading been going? I've only been popping my head into GEI on the odd occasion lately, mainly due to travel and work commitments.
  3. It doesn't say how he got into trouble. He sold naked puts and then made the fatal mistake of telling someone about his position, the information got into the market and he was forced out at a huge loss. from http://www.gladwell.com/2002/2002_04_29_a_blowingup.htm "A month or so before he blew up, Taleb had dinner with Niederhoffer at a restaurant in Westport, and Niederhoffer told him that he had been selling naked puts. You can imagine the two of them across the table from each other, Niederhoffer explaining that his bet was an acceptable risk, that the odds of the market going down so heavily that he would be wiped out were minuscule, and Taleb listening and shaking his head, and thinking about black swans. "I was depressed when I left him," Taleb said. "Here is a guy who goes out and hits a thousand backhands. He plays chess like his life depends on it. Here is a guy who, whatever he wants to do when he wakes up in the morning, he ends up better than anyone else. Whatever he wakes up in the morning and decides to do, he did better than anyone else. I was talking to my hero . . ." This was the reason Taleb didn't want to be Niederhoffer when Niederhoffer was at his height -- the reason he didn't want the silver and the house and the tennis matches with George Soros. He could see all too clearly where it all might end up. In his mind's eye, he could envision Niederhoffer borrowing money from his children, and selling off his silver, and talking in a hollow voice about letting down his friends, and Taleb did not know if he had the strength to live with that possibility. Unlike Niederhoffer, Taleb never thought he was invincible. You couldn't if you had watched your homeland blow up, and had been the one person in a hundred thousand who gets throat cancer, and so for Taleb there was never any alternative to the painful process of insuring himself against catastrophe." and from http://www.derivativesstrategy.com/magazine/archive/1998/0398shrt.asp "In the volatile market of October 1997, Niederhoffer sold puts on the Standard & Poor's 500 in size with the expectation that the market would rebound. It eventually did, but not before dropping 7 percent on October 27. Niederhoffer's 20,000 S&P puts obliterated his fund." Having read Taleb he comes across as a fellow rather jealous of those at the pinnacle of success in the market and I think it's no co-incidence whatsoever that shortly after Niederhoffer released details of his position to Taleb, the market forced him out of it, wiping him out in the process. A similar situation may be happening right now with Ackman vs Icahn. Ackman went public with his 20 million share short position on Herbalife (HLF) and it seems Carl Icahn is now using that information to punish Ackman for screwing him in a previous business deal. from http://www.forbes.co...herbalife-trade "Carl Icahn Is Squeezing Bill Ackman To Death With Herbalife Trade Last week, billionaire investor Carl Icahn sat on a stage at New York’s Pierre Hotel and was feeling so good about his bet on Herbalife HLF +1.72%that he almost sounded magnanimous towards his biggest Wall Street rival, the billionaire hedge fund manager William Ackman. “I like Ackman,” Icahn said. “Anybody that makes me a quarter billion dollars I like.” During his talk, televised on CNBC, Icahn carefully explained his approach to investing this year in Herbalife, the controversial nutritional supplements seller that Ackman has been vocally shorting in a massive way. Icahn and Ackman, of course, don’t like each other at all, but their big duel over Herbalife has turned into a one-sided affair so far in 2013. Shares of Herbalife surged higher on Monday, rising by more than 6% to $59.39. The stock is now up 80% in 2013 and has increased to its highest level since David Einhorn, another prominent billionaire hedge fund manager, first questioned Herbalife’s business model on one of the company’s conference calls more than one year ago. There has been no news from the company in recent days as the stock has exploded, rising more than 20% in the last six trading days, suggesting the trading in the stock is perhaps being driven by increasing skepticism about the big short thesis on Herbalife. During the epic verbal battle between Icahn and Ackman that was televised on CNBC in January, Icahn predicted that Ackman’s Herbalife investment could produce the “mother of all short squeezes.” Shortly after that incident, it became clear that Icahn had taken a big position in Herbalife’s stock. He has since expanded that position, bought 16.5% of the outstanding shares and gotten two representatives on Herbalife’s board. Last week Icahn suggested that the “daughter” of all short squeezes had already begun in Herbalife’s stock" Ackman's Pershing Square may yet be the next big blowup.
  4. Very possibly; RT http://rt.com/usa/dempsey-syria-us-assad-268/ "US preparing for military action in Syria, top US general says President Barack Obama is considering using military force in Syria, and the Pentagon has prepared various scenarios for possible United States intervention. Army Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the Obama administration is deliberating whether or not it should use the brute of the US military in Syria during a Thursday morning Senate hearing. Gen. Dempsey said the administration was considering using “kinetic strikes” in Syria and said "issue is under deliberation inside of our agencies of government,” the Associated Press reported from Washington. Dempsey, 61, is the highest ranking officer in the US military and has been nominated by Pres. Obama to serve a second term in that role. The Senate Armed Services Committee questioned him Thursday morning as part of the nominating process when Dempsey briefly discussed the situation in Syria. Last month, the Obama administration concluded that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad used chemical weapons during the ongoing battles. Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Communications Ben Rhodes said, “The intelligence community estimates that 100 to 150 people have died from detected chemical weapons attacks in Syria to date; however, casualty data is likely incomplete.” Pres. Obama said previously that the use of chemical weapons would cross a “red line” and likely trigger American intervention. When the White House concluded Assad had relied on chemical warfare, Rhodes said, “both the political and the military opposition . . . is and will be receiving US assistance." That claim was met with skepticism, though. The Syrian Foreign Ministry called Obama’s claims a “caravan of lies.” Vitaly Churkin, Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations, later presented to the UN evidence supplied to his government that suggested the Syrian opposition fighters used chemical weapons. With regards to foreign intervention, UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon said, “Providing arms to either side would not address this current situation.” Sen. Rand Paul (R-Kentucky) and his father, former congressman Ron Paul (R-Texas) have also cautioned the White House against aiding Syrian rebels. “You will be funding today the allies of al Qaeda” by aiding Syrian rebels, Sen. Paul said in May. On his part, the retired lawmaker from Texas insisted that the administration’s lead up to possible intervention is “identical to the massive deception campaign that led us into the Iraq War.”
  5. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    Looks like an interesting juncture in the markets; NASDAQ 100 futures S&P 500 futures; Dow 30 futures; These markets looked to be about to form a lower high right at the start of July and it looks huge numbers went short only for an a short squeeze to create a very sharp uptrend from that point. Has the gas run out now though? If so can we invoke Wile e coyote style cliff imagery at this point?
  6. What about the people that don't know you? There aren't that many people on this forum. That's a generous offer but I personally don't know of anyone in the car business. As regards referring to the worst case scenario, why put this is in your request for funds, it's not good. Don't put any negativity in it, you should show how you are going to turn your dream into a reality. You need to come across in a manner that shows you believe firstly in yourself 100% and that you have 100% confidence that your vision can become a reality. If you are not 100% sure about it then why should someone else be? I wish you all the best with it Mansouryar. Do keep us posted. Thanks PD
  7. Perishabull

    SILVER

    Sentiment on silver doing a cliff dive;
  8. Perishabull

    GOLD

    As you might expect, sentiment is very low right now;
  9. Perishabull

    GOLD

    It should be SILVER mate, Wills and Kate tying the knot marked the TOP in silver. Kim Il-Jong's death marked a LOW in silver on December 2011. Such is the LIFE in the precious metals market. I'm seeking an event to signal the low in gold.
  10. Perishabull

    GOLD

    Gold - 5 years How low can it go?
  11. Perishabull

    SILVER

    It really does look like the April 2011 top was a very significant top, and it may not be passed for a number of years now, amazing.
  12. from TinyUrl.com/About Bitcoins - Guide to "Mining" & Price Dynamics Bitcoin is on the ropes, so what are the alternatives and their Advantages and Disadvantages? It seems to me that what is needed in a cryptocurrency is a blockchain that is as divisible as the currency itself. This means that people could not only transact via exchanges but amongst each other, much like people do when trading between themselves, thus removing the need for exchanges These blockchains could split and rejoin within the network so there would never be a barrier to trade except if the internet itself was cut off. I've no idea technically how that might be carried out but if I see a currency developed that has this characteristic I will jump on it. [brief summary of what exists currently - others please feel free to add] "What is Litecoin? Litecoin is a peer-to-peer Internet currency that enables instant payments to anyone in the world. It differs from its parent Bitcoin in that can be efficiently mined with consumer-grade hardware. Litecoin provides faster confirmations (targeted at every 2.5 minutes on average) and uses memory-hard, scrypt-based mining to target the CPUs and GPUs most people already have. The Litecoin network is scheduled to produce four times as many currency units as Bitcoin. One of the aims of Litecoin was to provide a mining algorithm that could run at the same time, on the same hardware used to mine bitcoins. With the rise of specialized ASICs for Bitcoin, Litecoin continues to satisify these goals. It is unlikely for FPGA or ASIC mining to take over Litecoin until the currency is widely used." "Freicoin is a peer-to-peer (P2P) currency based on the accounting concept of a proof-of-work block chain used by Satoshi Nakamoto in the creation of Bitcoin. Unlike Bitcoin, Freicoin has a demurrage fee that ensures its circulation and bearers of the currency pay this fee automatically. This demurrage fee was proposed by Silvio Gesell to eliminate the privileged position held by money compared with capital goods, which is the underlying cause of the boom/bust business cycle and the entrenchment of the financial elite, and has been tested several times with positive results."
  13. Perishabull

    GOLD

    Recent events in the precious metals sector are a graphic illustration why being "all in" might not be such a good idea. Because you might be wrong.
  14. "Denmark Races to Prevent Foreclosures as Home Prices Sink Representatives from Denmark’s mortgage industry are meeting with the government today in the hope of easing repayment terms on interest-only loans that threaten to unleash a wave of foreclosures this year. The Association of Danish Mortgage Banks and the Mortgage Bankers’ Federation are due to start talks with Business Minister Annette Vilhelmsen to decide how to treat borrowers who won’t be able to afford the interest-only loans they took out a decade ago once amortization requirements kick in this year. Borrowers are also struggling as a deepening property slump drives house prices down to 2005 levels. Enlarge image Residential properties sit above commercial properties in Copenhagen. Photographer: Linus Hook/Bloomberg “Eighty percent of homeowners under 35 years of age are under water. That’s a lot,” Curt Liliegreen, head of the Center for Housing Economics in Copenhagen, said yesterday in a telephone interview. “This is a problem that threatens the Danish economy.” Denmark’s housing crisis, which started when the nation’s property bubble burst in 2008, is showing signs of deepening. Prices sank 2.8 percent last quarter from a year earlier, the two mortgage groups said yesterday. More than 100,000 households will need to have special terms negotiated if they are to meet their loan obligations, according to a February study by the University of Southern Denmark. ‘Rough Time’ “The housing market is still having a rough time,” Steen Bocian, chief economist at Danske Bank A/S (DANSKE), said today in an economic report. “Even though the pace of declines slowed last year, it’s too early to talk about a turn-around.” House prices may start to rise this year, though at a slower rate than inflation, Bocian said. He forecast a 1 percent increase in home prices this year and 0.6 percent in 2014. Denmark’s $590 billion mortgage industry -- which is about twice the size of Denmark’s economy -- in 2003 started giving borrowers the option of deferring amortization for as long as a decade. The interest-only mortgages were popular, and have since grown to account for 56 percent of all outstanding home loans, according to the Association of Danish Mortgage Banks. The central bank has criticized the loans, arguing they inflated a housing bubble that plunged Denmark into a recession. The mortgage industry wants the government to approve a plan that would allow homeowners to treat their property debt as two separate loans. The move would give lenders the freedom to let borrowers roll over debt within an 80 percent loan-to-value threshold into new interest-only loans. Only debt exceeding that limit would be amortized. Without the proposed change, borrowers would need to start amortizing the whole amount. ‘Dramatic Increases’ “There will be very dramatic increases in monthly payments for many families and it’s happening at a time with relatively high unemployment,” Liliegreen said. “That’s a dangerous cocktail.” Denmark’s property prices have dropped more than 20 percent since their 2007 peak, triggering a regional banking crisis that’s wiped out more than 12 lenders. Gross domestic product shrank 0.6 percent last year, the biggest annual decline in three years, prompting economists at Sydbank A/S (SYDB) to characterize 2012 as Denmark’s “annus horribilis.” While the nation’s unemployment rate, including people in vocational training courses, has hovered close to 6 percent, the number of people outside the workforce rose to its highest last quarter since at least 1996, as record numbers stopped looking for work, Jan Stoerup Nielsen, senior analyst at Nordea Bank AB (NDA), said Feb. 13. The economy lost as many as 8,000 jobs last year, according to Danske Bank. Foreclosures Foreclosures increased as much as fivefold after Denmark’s housing bubble burst in 2008. Last month, they declined to 361 from 481 a year earlier, according to the statistics agency, after interest rates on mortgages refinanced yearly fell to below 0.5 percent in November and December auctions. The risk of higher interest rates now poses a threat to the housing market’s recovery, Nordea said today. The Stockholm- based lender forecast a 0.9 percent increase in house prices this year and 1.9 percent in 2014. The Danish central bank, which defends the krone’s peg to the euro, will raise rates as part of a gradual normalization of monetary policy that “we expect will push financing costs higher,” Nordea said. The central bank raised its benchmark interest rates in January after investor appetite for AAA rated assets waned amid an improved outlook for southern Europe. Even after that increase, the bank’s deposit rate remains below zero at minus 0.1 percent. The lending rate is 0.3 percent. ‘Facing Customers’ The mortgage industry has already signaled to banks, including Nykredit A/S and the home-loan arm of Danske Bank A/S, to start following its recommendations, even before winning government backing. The banks “have to react,” Karsten Beltoft, director of the federation, said in an interview last month. “They’re facing customers right now.” Denmark’s Financial Supervisory Authority has declined to comment on the legality of the measure, leaving it to Vilhelmsen to decide whether banks are in fact violating the law by breaking up the loans. Vilhelmsen said Feb. 20 the approach risks “weakening mortgage bonds’ security.” Interest rates on home loans plunged last year to record lows as investors fleeing Europe’s sovereign debt crisis sought the safety of Denmark’s top-rated covered bonds. Cause of Collapse Danish mortgage banks aren’t allowed to grant loans that exceed 80 percent of a property’s value. Any shortfall caused by house price declines is filled by the banks, which must provide extra collateral to maintain their credit ratings. A government-appointed committee examining the causes of Denmark’s 2008 housing collapse is due to report its findings within months. The central bank has urged the industry to phase out interest-only lending, while the FSA, as of May 1, may impose fines on banks that don’t ensure new borrowers can afford to repay their principal. The agency also said in November it was looking into the option of requiring depositors to make larger down-payments before gaining access to mortgage financing. “There is a moral hazard problem,” Liliegreen said. “But the question of what happens to society, to the economy, is more important.”" I'm going to need to look further into this.
  15. I am going to be honest with you mansouryar so please accept what I say in the way that it is intended, as constructive criticism. The presentation is not at the level I would expect to see as a minimum to make even a modest investment, The video is blurred so it is not possible to see you properly. First impressions are very important. Most of the video appears to have been taken in a rather uninspiring setting such as a room with a bare wall with lighting suspended from the ceiling. This means there are shadows that do not make for an agreeable presentation of your persona. Typically when you watch professional broadcasts the head and torso of the presenter will be shown with the head from 1/4 to 1/3 of the way down from the top of the screen. Unfortunately the sound is of very poor quality, it is difficult to hear what you are saying, and especially difficult when you are standing under the chassis of the car. At the start, the phrase "I want to save the world, please be my helper!" is written under the title for the campaign page. This needs to be reworded as it seems a bit overly idealistic and I suspect that this may be if English is not your first language(?). There are large blocks of text that are off-putting, can these not be split into paragraphs to make it flow better? You state "Q. What if everything goes wrong? A. If you think things may go wrong, please guide me as to what to do to prevent such an awful scenario. If you are not sure about this, please participate in small pledges, or spread the word at least." This Q. really reduces the credibility because it appears as if you are unlikely to know why it would go wrong. I suspect what you are trying to say is that you would welcome collaboration and help from others with expertise in the same fields? In the next question you state you would be shocked if you received more than the stated goal, to me this suggests that either you aren't as confident as you perhaps should be or you have inadvertently given readers the perception that you aren't as confident as you should be. What I would like to see; Please consider the above as a minimum. I would like to see a brief introduction from you, your name, age, what is your background? If you have a academic qualifications what are they? What are your areas of expertise? Have you been involved in any successful business before? If so, mention this. You need to have people view your campaign page and feel compelled to contribute, so presentation and content needs to be professional and appear credible. Enlist the help of others, perhaps local film students looking for experience making a film for indiegogo, do you have a budget for that? I hope you receive this in the way that it is intended, certainly don't be disheartened. There are a lot of helpful people around here and elsewhere but you really need to spend more time working on your campaign for indiegogo. PS As a sidenote it is not very unusual to come across people who have bright ideas but are not accustomed to selling themselves. Regards and give me a shout if you think I can help out. PositiveDeviant
  16. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    Apologies I haven't been posting frequently lately, it's unfortunate as it really does help the creative process and I really value the interactions and members here. I have a lot on at the moment that means some of the hours I previously spent here need to be diverted elsewhere. Whether you class the last three weeks as short or intermediate term, this is an accurate analysis insofar as it is a top not yet exceeded. I'm particularly pleased about that since I'm going through a process of assessing a new approach and based on what I was seeing at the time I was pretty certain I was looking at fingerprints (in the data) of a turning point in US equity markets. I prefer not to post the details since; a ) The approach I refer to could be flat out wrong b ) The approach could be valid making it unwise to simply give away I would think that it is highly improbable that the work I'm doing is original, it's perhaps unlikely that I am the first person to be looking at data a certain way and analysing it in the way that I'm doing. Whilst it is certainly unorthodox it does mesh very well with some long term beliefs I have about futures markets and that's quite interesting for me so things are traveling in the right direction. A lot of the work I'm doing is quite tedious but necessary in order to carry out the right checks and assessments so I can get a better handle on whether this approach I'm working on is valid. I'm being sustained by Winston Churchill at the moment; "Continuous effort - not strength or intelligence - is the key to unlocking our potential"
  17. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    What's this tumbleweed doing on my own blog?
  18. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    Interesting phenomenon - Benford's law;
  19. Perishabull

    GOLD

    Gold futures (August) Gold trade has shifted to the August contract, the Andrew's Pitchfork meshes well with the data with gold snaking along the trendline these last few weeks. Andrew's Pitchfork is slightly unusual, it's an effective method of gaining context over price. It's drawn by taking a significant low, a significant high and another significant low. There are upward and downward sloping trending lines, each should be viewed as a horizon along which price moves, in the example above we can see that gold moved sharply lower during the downward trend section with the downward trendline acting as both support and resistance. It has been steadily climbing the lower up sloping trendline since 17th May.
  20. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    Marketwatch.com Hindenburg Omen: Explosive market indicator or just hot air? June 3, 2013, 1:52 PM Oh the humanity, Damien! No, the “Hindenburg Omen” isn’t a mid-1970s movie mashup where a pint-sized Antichrist causes a Zeppelin to explode, rather it’s a mashup of technical indicators that’s meant to signal a high probability that the stock market will crash and burn. And the reason it’s been getting so much chatter lately is that the stars have already aligned just as they did in October 2007. But exactly what are the signs of the Hindenburg Omen? Well, a series of market breadth indicators need to occur twice within 36 trading days of each other to portend a serious market decline within the next 40 days. Both the daily number of 52-week highs and 52-week lows on the New York Stock Exchange are equal or greater than 2.2% of NYSE stocks that day. The 10-week (or 50-day) moving average is rising. The McClellan Oscillator, a measure of market breadth based on exponential moving averages of advancing and declining stocks, must be negative, or bearish. New 52-week highs are not more than twice the number of 52-week lows. All four of those conditions were met on April 15 and May 29, according to Jonathan Krinsky, chief technical market analyst at Miller Tabak & Co. On April 15, there were 70 new 52-week highs and 77 new 52-week lows, exceeding 2.2% of issues, while on May 29th there were 58 new 52-week highs and 104 new 52-week lows. “According to Bloomberg, the last ‘confirmed’ omen was in October 2007,” Krinsky wrote in a recent note. “It makes some sense given the dispersion between new 52 week highs and lows. Therefore, it is always good to be aware of it, even if it proves to be nothing more than a silly topic to bring up at your next cocktail party.” The Hindenburg Omen (HO), however, has garnered a fair amount of savage criticism. While the HO preceded market downturns in 2008 and 1987, critics point out that stock market declines occurred only 25% of the time after conditions of the HO were met. Chief Investment Officer Adam Grimes at Waverly Advisors called the HO “an example of the worst kind of ‘technical analysis’—a market signal essentially designed for media soundbites,” in emailed comment Monday. “This signal was created in a different market environment, and we might reasonably ask if the NYSE, which represents roughly 10% of the total U.S. market, is actually the best representation today,” Grimes said. Still, the creator of the HO, Jim Miekka, told WSJ’s MoneyBeat blog he’s preparing to bail out of the market. Then again, Miekka also said much the same thing in mid-August 2010, when the S&P 500 Index SPX +0.29% was around 1,079. By the end of the month, the S&P 500 had slipped nearly 4% to 1,040. Then again, it followed that up by rising 30% to 1,347 over the next 11 months. Either way, the HO this past week showed how much attention you can garner with an ominous sounding name in times of market skittishness, and generated its share of Tweets."
  21. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    Short yesterday on NASDAQ futures for an 8 point gain; Unfortunately I've not been trading much lately due to work.
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