Jump to content

Perishabull

Administrators
  • Content Count

    3,447
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Perishabull

  1. Perishabull

    GOLD

    Interesting chart
  2. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    Mrs Positive Deviant and I are away for a driving holiday around the highlands of Scotland, we hired one these babies; Great fun to drive!
  3. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    Specifically, US equity markets
  4. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    I reckon yesterday might have been the top, based on some unusual data, will post more later.
  5. Perishabull

    GOLD

    Going deeper;
  6. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    Big drop from high to low today. Is that the top?
  7. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    From Peter Campbell;
  8. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    Onwards and upwards? Not quite the same visceral enthusiasm in the NASDAQ Transports
  9. Perishabull

    GOLD

    Well it didn't test the low bit it did test a low;
  10. Perishabull

    GOLD

    Quite a spike in volume too;
  11. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    S&P 500 This just looks wrong , it's just going higher at too steep an angle. Nothing that a vicious correction won't sort out though. And the 1 year chart;
  12. Perishabull

    Jim Sinclair thread (News & Views)

    Instead of following someone else religiously (that's the really sad part for me) perhaps he ought to think for himself for a change.
  13. Perishabull

    GOLD

    From KingWorldNews
  14. Perishabull

    GOLD

  15. Perishabull

    happy charts

    Buy on the breakout?
  16. Perishabull

    It's time to short Danish banks

    This scenario in Denmark makes me think of Iceland. http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-05-09/iceland-gets-tough-with-foreign-creditors-of-failed-banks "Iceland Gets Tough With Foreign Creditors of Failed Banks Iceland is a Nordic free-market democracy with glacier-covered volcanoes and hyperactive geysers. If you’re into mind-bendingly complex song lyrics, there’s Björk and Sigur Rós. In the rarefied world of global finance, Iceland is also where local pols and central bankers trample on the interests of bondholders like a herd of marauding reindeer. At least that’s the perspective of foreign bondholders and distressed asset hedge funds hoping to recoup their investments in three Icelandic lenders—Landsbanki Islands, Glitnir Bank, and Kaupthing Bank—that defaulted on $85 billion in debts in 2008. In a parliamentary election on April 27, the Independence Party—which was in power during the meltdown—and the Progressive Party together won just over 50 percent of the vote. Both ran on an anti-austerity platform of lower taxes and home mortgage relief, to be funded in part by forcing overseas creditors to accept losses on the $3.8 billion in krona-denominated assets they’re owed by three failed lenders. Also in play is $8 billion in deposits and loans owed to overseas creditors that have been trapped in Iceland, thanks to capital controls imposed in 2008. Talks are under way in Reykjavik to form the new government. Sigmundur David Gunnlaugsson, chairman of the Progressive Party, has called for steep reductions on the amount owed to more than 100 creditors, including Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), Deutsche Bank (DB), Goldman Sachs (GS), and distressed asset investor Davidson Kempner Capital Management, a New York hedge fund. The new government aims to “write down the kronur claims of creditors of the failed banks, which everybody knows have to be written off,” Independence Party Chairman Bjarni Benediktsson said in a mid-March interview. Either Gunnlaugsson or Benediktsson is expected to be named prime minister, and new debt negotiations may begin this summer. Iceland’s politicians won praise from American economists including Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz for refusing to bail out Iceland’s banks, whose balance sheets had ballooned to 10 times the size of the island’s economy. Unlike many other nations, Iceland did not use taxpayer money to protect bank bondholders and creditors. The strategy worked: Iceland is no longer a ward of the International Monetary Fund, which together with Finland, Sweden, Norway, and Denmark spent $4.6 billion to bail out the country. Its economy is expected to grow 2.1 percent this year, according to the Central Bank of Iceland. The unemployment rate has fallen to 5.3 percent from a peak of 9.3 percent. Even so, the new regime faces a dilemma: Play too rough with foreign creditors and the country runs the risk of becoming a financial pariah. “Iceland will be locking itself out of the international debt markets and reducing the country’s chances of raising investments,” says Lars Christensen, chief emerging markets economist at Danske Bank (DNSKY). Beating up creditors may not be a smart legal strategy. “If the government forces the creditors to negotiate on its terms, it can be tantamount to a de facto expropriation, which can afford the creditors the right to damages,” says Hróbjartur Jónatansson, a bankruptcy attorney in Reykjavik. Leaving capital controls in place indefinitely could be viewed by a court as an illegal asset seizure, he says. Iceland is paying a price for its stance. The krona has fallen 40 percent against the euro since 2008. That’s raised import prices and resulted in an annual inflation rate of 3.3 percent as of April. Families, already hit hard by a housing market bust, are carrying heavy debt loads. There are also about $11.3 billion in consumer loans in the nation with repayment terms linked to changes in consumer prices. Both victorious parties support lifting capital controls, but Iceland’s trade balance and foreign exchange reserves are too small to pay the bank creditors all at once without cratering the currency, the government says. The government will need to demonstrate that it really can’t afford to pay back creditors without more lenient terms in future debt talks, according to two people close to the creditors who declined to be identified ahead of the negotiations. They add that since the crash, foreign creditors haven’t seen a dime. Repayment would have to take place “over a long period of time,” says Gylfi Magnússon, an economist at the University of Iceland. Big banks and hedge funds aren’t the only creditors hoping to get paid back. Landsbanki Islands has repaid only $5.7 billion to the Netherlands and Britain to compensate depositors who lost more than $11 billion five years ago in a high-interest online savings product called Icesave. The Iceland government has said the bank will pay the full amount, but hasn’t said when."
  17. Perishabull

    GOLD

    Geez Bubb, I didn't realise you were selling that much.
  18. Perishabull

    GOLD

    The Japanese have had their share of hard times, unfortunately I think another portion is headed their way.
  19. Perishabull

    GOLD

    Institutions need to raise capital to cover sudden losses in what WAS a stable JGB market, this is what's driving the dollar higher, and by proxy gold lower. Mass exodus from JGBs is potentially a HUGE black swan event. That's my intuition. Kyle Bass may well be proved right, with quite the style and panache.
  20. Perishabull

    GOLD

    Doesn't look too good.
  21. Perishabull

    GOLD

    It's our perennial favourite the Gold Silver ratio; Mid-February to present Looks like a pennant formation may be coming to a close, assuming it does go higher. 2010 - present Potential resistance? Gold down to $1457 right now and under a lot of pressure from a rising dollar, the dollar index at 82.84, up nearly a whole point on the day...
  22. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    Went long Dow Jones futures at 17:37; Market rallied and retraced a couple of times before rallying higher, closed out for a 20 point gain. Oh and by the way, happy Fibonacci day to my american friends! 050813 j
  23. I think the point is that perhaps they ought to have asked these questions before allowing you to trade leveraged products. The fact that they refunded you without asking suggests some sort of concern on their part about a potential liability arising from a gap in their adherence to FSA regulations. Just a guess. http://www.indexuniv...raged-etfs.html "FSA Warns On Leveraged ETFs The UK regulator, the Financial Services Authority (FSA), has warned that leveraged exchange-traded funds may be unsuitable for mainstream, retail investors. The warning comes in a new discussion paper, ‘Product Intervention’, in which the FSA sets out its intention to take a much more interventionist approach to the regulation of retail financial services. Its previous approach - ensuring that sales processes are fair and that product disclosure is transparent - has proved insufficient to prevent retail customers from suffering 'severe customer detriment', says the regulator. It now recognises that there are fundamental reasons why financial services markets do not always work well for consumers, the FSA says, and that a new regulatory approach, involving earlier intervention, is therefore warranted. Leveraged ETFs, along with traded life policy investments and some of the more complicated areas of the structured product market, are areas where the FSA sees particular cause for concern, according to the discussion paper. The UK regulator does not propose banning such financial products, but would make it clear that the starting point is that these products are unsuitable for most retail customers. Anyone promoting them would need to provide ‘extensive research and justification’, says the FSA. The FSA’s focus on the risk of leveraged ETFs follows a move in the US early last year by the chief securities market regulator, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), to limit the use of derivatives in exchange-traded funds, notably by funds offering inverse and leveraged exposure. By contrast with the SEC, the UK regulator is warning merely about the risks involved in leveraged exchange-traded products, not those offering simple inverse exposure (minus one times the index return). Both inverse and leveraged ETFs rebalance their exposure daily, leading to a likely divergence over time between a fund’s performance and the equivalent multiple of the underlying index return. The greater the leverage factor involved and the higher the volatility of the underlying index, the larger the potential divergence. Leveraged and inverse ETFs represent only 2% of the European exchange-traded product market by assets under management, although they tend to be amongst the most heavily traded instruments in the sector."
×