Jump to content

Perishabull

Administrators
  • Content Count

    3,447
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Perishabull

  1. Well I was WRONG to think the market wouldn't quickly get back to $5000. Bitcoin is now a shade off $8000. It really is quite remarkable. The marketcap for cryptocurrencies has gone from $18.3 billion at the start of the year, to $227 billion. Cryptocurrency marketcap 2017 (from https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/); Cryptocurrency marketcap 2017 (excluding bitcoin); Potential double top?
  2. Interesting article but I don't think it's accurate. It may well be that the current price to mine is $1000 but is this not dependant on the miners active at any given time? If there are less miners surely it then becomes less difficult to mine when there are fewer competitive miners? This should mean as price approaches cost, the drop in numbers of miners should reduce the cost floor to mine per coin.
  3. It's hard to say at this point. Seems like the Chinese are very concerned about Bitcoins use to circumvent their capital controls. The weak link in this market is the centralised exchanges, vulnerable to regulation and targets for hacking. When Bitcoin got to $5000 it really seemed like a mania, so I would be very surprised if it quickly got back to $5000. I think it seems more likely that we switch into a bear market. Cryptocurrency has exploded into the mainstream this year, which was the premise behind all my purchases earlier this year, but I reckon it's gone too far so we need to consolidate for a bit. Bitcoin went to $1200 then back down to $100 a few years back. I don't think we will see that style drop again, but I do think we should get down to $2000/$2250 mark at some point. It's still very early days, Joe public is not in this trade, this is a revolutionary technology wrapped up in a lot of hype and speculation. I definitely think this could be an interstellar market in coming years once we get more infrastructure in the space, more mainstream adoption etc. I'm planning to make some more purchases in some cryptos that might have long term potential. A couple that look interesting; QTUM BLOCKNET
  4. Yes it should. Major respect to Vitalik Buterin for calling the ICO craze a bubble. This crash should wipe away all of the speculative excesses and leave the genuine players behind. I would expect it could be a matter of years before the next bubble, but the next time the general public will likely be involved as cryptocurrencies will be more integrated with the current system.
  5. Big drop in the cryptocurrency markets; Charts from coinmarketcap.com Just a correction or part of a larger crash?
  6. I tried but received this message when I clicked my settings; https://imgur.com/a/EQh8v
  7. Looking at recent charts of the market cap for cryptocurrency in general this morning, and considering that regulatory storm clouds appear to be darkening, I've now sold down further so I'm now at 2/3rds crypto, 1/3rd cash. Interesting article on Seeking Alpha that seems to have a realistic perspective on the situation; https://seekingalpha.com/article/4105233-bitcoin-fear-good?page=2 I'm actually going to Amsterdam for a business trip at the end of the month. If I can manage the time, I'm planning on visiting the tulip museum there. http://www.amsterdamtulipmuseum.com/en/faq/museum/what-is-tulip-mania/
  8. Big crash in the cryptocurrency markets- potentially a major top has passed... http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-04/ethereum-bitcoin-crash-after-china-declares-initial-coin-offerings-illegal
  9. I'm not aware of direct markets for Ethereum to GBP. I use an online exchange to move to BTC, then dispose of the BTC to GBP via Local Bitcoins. I'm not really a fan of Ethereum, I'm just capitalising on the growing market. It could be a future Google of the Cryptocurrency markets, hard to say. At this point I'm just looking to "Be right and sit tight" - Livermore
  10. This is such a frustrating issue - there is a huge history of posts on this forum with reference to charts and images. Of course the quick way is just to pay up - but I'm against that in principle. Photobucket will know that there are businesses out there relying on their service so no doubt it will probably work for them. I'm wondering if it is feasible to use a cloud service, such as Microsoft Onedrive? I've tried to embed a picture of a lotus flower from onedrive here but it comes up with an error; You are not allowed to use that image extension on this community.
  11. I've fortunately being doing particularly well with these cryptocurrency markets however I had the most ridiculous idea today. I was walking round the supermarket picking up our requirements and thought that it would be a really good idea to buy a bottle of champagne, to celebrate my success in the cryptocurrency markets. I immediately realised that this is probably an internal indicator of a top in the market. Needless to say I did not buy it. Here are some other alarm bells to consider.... Exhibit 1; John McAfee says that not only Bitcoin isn't a bubble but that you cannot call it one. JOHN McAFEE: Here's why you can't call bitcoin a 'bubble' http://uk.businessin...a-bubble-2017-8 "Likewise, what people see as a bitcoin "bubble," from the perspective of the new paradigm, is merely the predictable and systematic devaluation of fiat currencies that will continue, with obvious ups and downs, until all fiat currencies reach the zero point." The price of gold however, is not currently reflecting the "predictable and systematic devaluation of fiat currencies " so it is as yet unclear why this devaluation would only be reflected in the cryptocurrency markets. Exhibit 2; The shoeshine boys are getting in on it; Middle America is in love with Bitcoin https://www.nbcnews....itcoin-n789011/ "One of them, Ryan Williams, a 35-year-old school bus driver, admits he doesn't fully understand how Bitcoin or its rivals work." Exhibit 3; A successful boxer is now exhorting on all things crypto; Floyd Mayweather Just Joined the ICO ‘Coin’ Craze https://www.coindesk...-ico-instagram/ "I'm gonna make a $hit t$n of money ... on the Stox.com ICO" Could you imagine Mayweather being the figurehead for an Initial Public Offfering? I don't see that would fly unless it was boxing related. I have various interests in Cryptocurrencies but bailed out of 1/5 of my bitcoin, dash and ethereum holdings today. The rest I will leave as a long term investment (2 to 5 years).
  12. Hi DrBubb, and others, hope you are all staying healthy, wealthy and wise! I've been around GEI for quite some time from a few years back. Bitcoin is of course an incredibly interesting market. I first bought bitcoins back in 2014 (behind the curve to say the least) and have been developing my interest in this space particularly early this year with other cryptocurrencies. Some alarm bells are ringing here however; Exhibit 1; John McAfee says that not only Bitcoin isn't a bubble but that you cannot call it one. JOHN McAFEE: Here's why you can't call bitcoin a 'bubble' http://uk.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-price-john-mcafee-not-a-bubble-2017-8 "Likewise, what people see as a bitcoin "bubble," from the perspective of the new paradigm, is merely the predictable and systematic devaluation of fiat currencies that will continue, with obvious ups and downs, until all fiat currencies reach the zero point." The price of gold however, is not currently reflecting the "predictable and systematic devaluation of fiat currencies " so it is as yet unclear why this devaluation would only be reflected in the cryptocurrency markets. Exhibit 2; The shoeshine boys are getting in on it; Middle America is in love with Bitcoin https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/middle-america-crazy-love-bitcoin-n789011/ "One of them, Ryan Williams, a 35-year-old school bus driver, admits he doesn't fully understand how Bitcoin or its rivals work." Exhibit 3; A successful boxer is now exhorting on all things crypto; Floyd Mayweather Just Joined the ICO ‘Coin’ Crazehttps://www.coindesk.com/boxing-champ-floyd-mayweather-just-promoted-ico-instagram/ "I'm gonna make a $hit t$n of money ... on the Stox.com ICO" Could you imagine Mayweather being the figurehead for an Initial Public Offfering? I don't see that would fly unless it was boxing related. I have various interests in Cryptocurrencies but bailed out of 1/5 of my bitcoin, dash and ethereum holdings today.
  13. Humaniq is a very interesting one. Humaniq is targetting the unbanked markets of the world where people have mobile phones but no banking services. The Humaniq USP is a clever combination of Biometric technology along with blockchain tech. They've created an asset HMQ on top of the Ethereum blockchain, and an app to facilitate transactions. Many of the worlds unbanked have no papers, no id whatsoever, so there is no prospect of them ever having an account with a typical financial institution. Instead of having a username and password, the access to the system is a Biometric face check, The individual users face is scanned by the app, and if it matches the one used on set up, theh user is granted access to their funds and the apps functions. Further, the app has no language within in it aside from numbers. All of the features and functions are indicated by use of symbols. This means it could be used in any market. There is an incentive structure built in, so the user obtains HMQ coins when setting up an account, and for various other activites that are designed to encourage the spread of the system. Their app and currency would be particularly useful in local communities where the currency is one which is inflating. Although not currently a feature of the app, in the future instead of paying an account number I am assuming that a user could simply select a face on the app, with the payment going to the individual. I think the innovative combination of Biometrics and blockchain technology combined with the incentives model, means this is potentially a very interesting entrant into the cryptocurrency world. https://themerkle.com/humaniq-aims-to-connect-millions-of-unbanked/
  14. The total market cap, and it's constituent assets have come off a fair bit now, although Bitcoin and Ethereum are still very strong. It topped out at around $89 billion, down to $72 billion as of now; What is Ripple? Ripple is a permissioned blockchain, working with a number of banks to reduce costs of global payments. XRP is the native asset on the blockchain. SBI holdings found using XRP on the Ripple blockchain would reduce cost of global payment settlement; There are quite a number of banks working with Ripple. Ripple is not popular on bitcoin forums and amongst crypto anarchists because some are purists who believe that cryptocurrencies should be a separate system, excluding the banks, whereas Ripple is deliberately targetting banks as their prime market. Ripple payments are near instant, between 3 and 5 seconds for settled pyaments. IN Q1 market participants bought $6.7 million of XRP direct from Ripple, although it is not clear whether these purchases were at open market prices. The Bank of England's fintech accelerator are conducting a proof of concept test with Ripple. Ripple's USP is near instant payments on a permissioned blockchain. The cost of the XRP asset was extremely low at the time I bought so I saw it as great risk/reward ratio. Ethereum is dominant in the space in terms of smart contracts on a blockchain. I think this tech is really advanced, and they have many global businesses signed up to the Enterprise Ethereum Alliance. It really looks like a growing ecosystem and applications for deployment seem at this point only limited by the ideas people have, so long term the asset will hopefully grow in value as demand increases. I picked this one up just as an upswing was beginning. Ethereums USP is the first smart contract capable blockchain. Dash for me is particularly interesting. Dash is the first Decentralised Autonomous Organisation (DAO). What this means is that some of the functions of the organisation are deployed direct from the blockchain. Dash's goal is to become the paypal of the cryptocurrency world. Dash payments can be sent as normal, with it taking a few minutes to arrive as each new block is mined, but they also have another tier of nodes, called masternodes, these are collateralized nodes, paid to provide services to the network. If someone wants to send DASH as an instant payment, is it the masternodes that perform this function by relaying the funds to the destination account instantly. Dash blocks are mined, but the DASH that is mined does not all go to the miners, 45% of funds go to masternodes, 45% go to miners, and 10% goes to the treasury. The treasury disburses funds through a proposal system, each proposal is voted on by masternode owners. So the core developers are paid direct from the blockchain in DASH for their work developing the code adding new features, upgrading the core wallet etc. They are developing something called Dash evolution with which their goal is to revolutionize the usability of cryptocurrency for mass market adoption. Currently using wallet is cumbersome and problematic, wallet addresses are really long, there are no usernames, so it would be difficult for John Doe to use. They want to change all this and through their Dash evolution system, want to develop crypto currency your grandmother could use. The payment of new block rewards direct from the block-chain to the treasury (the 10%) creates a reflexive process, a positive feedback loop. Treasury funds are paid to developers, marketers, and successful proposals, as their efforts increase the value of DASH over time, the overall block reward increases in value (in $ terms). This means that as the price of currency increases, the value of the block reward that goes to treasury becomes higher, so treasury can hire more developers, fund more types of activity that increases the ecosystem, the value of the network, the attractiveness of DASH as currency, and the price increases. I believe DASH currently have 37 developers working full time being paid high market rates for their work. They have someone that has worked extensively in the payments industry, Ryan Taylor, he was director of finance, he is now CEO. I think DASH has a strong a growing team, a great product and there is potential for it to become a huge business in the future. Again I picked this one up just as there started to be a decent uptick in price. The positive feedback loop embedded within the DAO is a very attractive feature.
  15. I've decided to start a separate thread documenting my thoughts as I'm currently going through a process of developing a trading strategy based on indicators I am developing, it will include some observations on my own indicators and really document the journey I am on towards becoming a trader. The other thread I started "Currency and equity market correlations" on the main board is really there to present to others what I think are interesting observations I find in the markets. I will post my indicators on that thread when they signal as others might also be interested but I will not post trades as it's straying away from the purpose of the thread, the main board is not really the place to go into real detail. I want the thread to remain true to it's title. Just briefly I have been interested in the markets for a few years, started dabbling with trading about 2 years ago, having funded an options trading account. I made and lost some of my account however I recently realised that although my account is down, the main loss on my account has been down to commissions. If I had the commissions back I spent I wouldn't be far from breakeven. I use thinkorswim and earlier this evening negotiated a 50% reduction in commissions (I only wished I tried that earlier!) Over the years I noticed that I have an ability of seeing things sometimes other people don't see, an ability to look at things in a more abstract way and sometimes spot things ahead of others. In my work life I have a mundane role requiring little thought or effort, I am channeling the frustration I feel in my work life into my development as a trader. The markets are the perfect arena for someone with original ideas, since if those ideas work I can exploit them. I hesitate to mention Soros but having read the Alchemy of finance, I found it to be a fascinating book and some of the ideas within it have inspired me to develop my own methods. Over the period I have been trading I have realised that there are many other ways to look at the markets other than the traditional moving averages and multiplicity of indicators that exist. For me, the way forward is developing my own indicators. If I'm the only person using them it should give me the edge I need. What I've done is looked at a range of different types of financial products (bonds, stocks, commodities) - and defined not the price of those but what I believe the value to be - and then incorporated those into my indicators in various different ways. People are programmed to think up or down, black or white, left or right and that is as evident in trading much as it is in many other spheres of life. You can go long or short, or perhaps put a pairs trade on to exploit the opposing forces to capture a spread. There are many relationships between groups of investments that are not easily defined since it's difficult to visualise these on a chart. So what I have attempted to do is define value (not price) of various underlyings and incorporated them into a formula in such a way to try and model movement of capital in the market that I can then chart and then compare to a specific underlying. I'm not going to explain the exact detail since there is a possibilty that my work is original. What I will do is post the results open for debate. This is my double top double bottom indicator, you can see that these double top and double bottom reversals occured before they did in the actual market (SPY). In this case I have charted my indicator in black against SPY in green. I was very encouraged when I developed this since you can imagine if it works with a high probability it will be a powerful trading tool. I initiated a short (via puts) when it last double topped, I've marked it on the chart. Since then this has happened; As the double top has been breached it should render the double top invalid (I now think I should have listened to my indicator and sold the puts). That would be my signal to cancel the trade, to get out after I enter following a double bottom or double top, a very useful one if the market carries on going higher, after the double top in my indicator has been breached. That remains to be seen next week. Whilst this indicator had me long for some nice trades in September... I then started reviewing the indicator to see if it would work on shorter timeframes. Since part of the indicator is the instrument to be traded I found I could swap out SPY for other underlyings and it works well on those also. It also works on shorter timeframes. Here is an example with QQQQ, this is a good example since it shows a double top and a double bottom in my indicator when there was no double bottom or top in the actual underlying price of QQQQ (in blue). The red lines intersecting indicator and price are the entry points. If the indicator makes a double bottom or top that is level and turns around at exactly that level then the trade is initiated, you can see here that these were great entry points for, intially a long trade, then a short on QQQQ. There is also a double top that has just formed (top right of chart), I'll have to wait until monday to see if that one works out. This time an entry on Netflix; A very precise entry just after the high. I've only just recently discovered this fractal nature of my indicator and will be posting my trading it in the coming days. It's probably more suited to trading futures but I will aim to build my account first with options. EDIT - I've just actually spotted a double bottom on the same chart (from 7th - 17th September) that caught the low before the ramp higher during the following days. Here it is, along with another double top I spotted, very precise entries where my indicator has made a precise level double bottom or top when the actual stock price of NFLX has not. It's not going to work every time, that much is guaranteed but it does seem to catch the ebb and flow of the market and pick precise entries. As it does indicate these type of entries, if the price goes the other way I can get out - fast.
  16. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    16th trade (automated Strategy CXX YM ET L C C), taken today E-Mini Dow Futures September A long at 18459 and exit at 18440 for a gain of 19 points per contract. Performance since start of strategy on 20th June = 2 points per contract
  17. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    16th trade (automated Strategy CXX YM ET S C C), taken today E-Mini Dow Futures September ​ A short at 18447 and exit at 18402 for a gain of 45 points per contract. Performance since start of strategy on 20th June = -17 points per contract
  18. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    15th trade (automated Strategy CXX YM ET L C C), taken today E-Mini Dow Futures September A long at 18521 and exit at 18522 for a gain of 1 point per contract. Performance since start of strategy on 20th June = -62 points per contract
  19. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    Switched my trading account to Dorman and so I am back trading live again. 14th trade (automated Strategy CXX YM ET L C C), on 16th August E-Mini Dow Futures September A long at 18543 and exit at 18412 for a loss of 31 points per contract. Performance since start of strategy on 20th June = -63 points per contract
  20. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    13th trade (automated Strategy CXX YM ET L C C) Sim, on 8th August E-Mini Dow Futures September A long at 18475 and exit at 18461 for a loss of 16 points per contract. Performance since start of strategy on 20th June = -32 points per contract
  21. 20 year chart - British pound futures 5 year chart - British pound futures 10-d chart : http://tinyurl.com/GBP-10d
  22. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    12th trade (automated Strategy CXX YM ET L C C) Sim E-Mini Dow Futures September A long at 18499 and exit at 18420 for a loss of 79 points per contract. Performance since first trade on 20th June = -16 points per contract
  23. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    11th trade (automated Strategy CXX YM ET S C C) Sim E-Mini Dow Futures September A short at 18460 and exit at 18442 for a loss of 18 points per contract. Performance since first trade on 20th June = 63 points per contract
  24. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    10th trade (automated Strategy CXIX YM ET L C C) Sim E-Mini Dow Futures September A long at 18454 and exit at 18420 for a loss of 34 points per contract. Performance since first trade on 20th June = 81 points per contract
×