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Perishabull

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Everything posted by Perishabull

  1. I am writing an article that I will post once finished, I had intended on finishing it whilst I came up with the idea for the post but it needs more work. I'd actually forgotten that I'd posted just the very start of it in error some time ago (I moved over to notepad to develop it further) but spotted it on reviewing my profile settings today. I will finish it, eventually...
  2. It's difficult to see these trends changing soon
  3. Perishabull

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Very interesting pdf, thanks for posting
  4. Perishabull

    GOLD

    I sold all my gold at $948 and my silver at $13.22. Am I crazy? No, I made a superb profit, partly due to the collapse of the pound and I need to buy a house however... I'm going to get back into silver if it goes much lower because I think silver represents significant value and has huge potential as a long term hold (10 years +), much better than gold IMO. As a side point I think we may be near the end of this correction phase in the PMs as I think Martin Armstrong's turn date will co-incide with a turn down in the EMs, turn up in the PMs Watching isn't quite so tense now though, it's more for fun! As a side point I was thinking about buying Palladium last November, boy do I wish I'd gone ahead with that!
  5. Perishabull

    GOLD

    Goldfinger, at what level are you going to sell? (just curious)
  6. Perishabull

    GOLD

    I think everyone agrees that part of the reason house prices are falling is because of a contraction in credit. Is it possible that the same thing could happen to Comex gold. Margin requirements for gold were increased last September (effectively a reduction in credit), interestingly this was done on the heels of the largest increase in price in 9 years. I am concerned that the powers that be could do this again, to try and curtail further price increases. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...fer=commodities
  7. Perishabull

    Jim Sinclair thread (News & Views)

    Absolutely, and I think your site is fantastic. I think it can sometimes be useful to question the motives of others and in the case of Jim Sinclair in all probability his motivation is to share a lifetime of knowledge in the gold market with the general public, to benefit others. There could of course be other motives though. I like to keep an open mind. In the about section on his website it says; "The Spin really does stop here" - Why does he feel the need to emphasise this with "really"? Also... "From 1981 to 1984, Mr. Sinclair served as a Precious Metals Advisor to Hunt Oil and the Hunt family for the liquidation of their silver position as a prerequisite for the $1 billion loan arranged by the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Paul Volker." So, he previously worked in an advisory role regarding the liquidation of silver for an actor within the silver market. Now, could it be that he is now performing the same function for another actor within the gold market, and if this were the case, would it not be useful for him to draw as many retail and institutional investors into the market as possible? Does anyone see where I am heading with this?
  8. Perishabull

    Jim Sinclair thread (News & Views)

    I'm an avid reader of Jim Sinclair's site but I can't help but think what is his agenda for running a free website? Is he doing it for good karma or are there other motives...?
  9. Perishabull

    SILVER

    Icarus, I own physical silver but I'm afraid you are flying into the sun here with your comment. When you say permanent do you mean Dr Irving Fisher's "permanently high plateau" ?
  10. Perishabull

    GOLD

    Regarding the London Mint Office coins... You are not buying a normal Sovereign here folks; "Specifications Description: King George V last circulating type gold sovereign, minted 1911-1925 Quality: Exemplary - similar to that shown Weight: 8 grams Size: 22mm diameter Metal alloy: Gold, 22 carats pure (.9167) Obverse (portrait) designer: Bertram Mackennal Reverse (St.George) designer: Benedetto Pistrucci" These are metal alloy with 91.67% gold not the 99.99% or whatever you normally get
  11. Perishabull

    GOLD

    The gold I have is in Zurich (Bullionvault). I sold an amount with the intention of buying back in within a relatively short period so it remains in sterling. In terms of bank accounts being frozen etc it is a possibility albeit a remote one, I think governments will do anything in their power to prevent a banking collapse as it would destabilise society. If gold becomes contraband I wouldn't fancy trying to trade it either, potentially very risky, there would be all sorts of sharks prepared to use violence to take it from you. Of course the higher gold goes, the more it becomes seen as money, goldmoney also allows you to make payments in goldgrams. If that takes off, people using gold instead of fiat, then it could also have a de-stabilising effect on society therefore forced sale to the government is probably the most likely scenario in my view.
  12. Perishabull

    GOLD

    I don't know how many of you have looked at the gold in other currencies charts that trader Dan on jsmineset has posted. Gold in GBP looks like it is going parabolic. My gut feel is that gold will be sideways this year and in fact I sold 8.5% of mine to buy back in when (if) it goes lower. Who will be the major buyers above $1000? As the gold story filters more into public perception I believe it will become more mainstream, this in turn could lead to it becoming a staple of retail portfolios whereas, by and large, at the moment it is not. This of course will take time to play out. There needs to more buyers and my feeling is that in the future it will be Joe Public acting on the advice of your standard Independent Financial Advisor.
  13. Perishabull

    GOLD

    I sold 8.5% of my gold a few days ago at $900 with the intention of trading with this amount to try and increase my overall amount. Sure glad I didn't sell more than that!
  14. Where Puts = Calls ETF : Spot- : Feb07 : Mar07 : Apr07 xxx : Jan10 : Jan11 OIH : 71.71 : =====: =====: ==== xxxx: =====: 71.25 (Jan/11) 75.0c 20.70-21.65 : 21.30 // 75.0p 24.75-25.15 : 24.95 72.5c ==== ==== : 22.20 // 72.5p ==== ==== : 23.45 71.25 ==== ==== : 22.65 // 71.25 ==== ==== : 22.70 == 70.0c 22.65-23.60 : 23.10 // 70.0c 21.75-22.15 : 21.95 ETF : Spot- : Feb07 : Mar07 : Apr07 xxx : Jan10 : Jan11 USO: 30.09 : =====: =====: ==== xxxx: =====: 31.75 (Jan/11) 35.0c 08.50-09.40 : 08.95 // 35.0p 12.60-13.10 : 12.85 32.5c ==== ==== : 09.90 // 32.5p ==== ==== : 11.25 31.75 ==== ==== : 10.35 // 31.75 ==== ==== : 10.45 30.0c 10.50-11.10 : 10.80 // 30.0c 09.40-09.90 : 09.65 Dr Bubb, are you suggesting this could indicate a turn in sentiment? Also, what are your thoughts on the put/call ratio as a tool? From what I've read so far, it could be useful in suggesting tops and bottoms. My broker is thinkorswim, the platform is great, but it doesn't have functionality that allows charting the put/call ratio over time. Do you know of any sites/platforms that might provide this?
  15. Got it, thanks. Brent has come down approx 37%, the OILB ETF is down 50% in the same period. I need to find better sites where I can get accurate prices on specific dates though.
  16. I'm reviewing my position in OILB as a result of this thread and was concerned that the value over time would be eroded away by the cost of rolling on to the next contract every month. However having checked the price of Crude Continuous (on www.timingcharts.com) the closing price of Crude on 10 October 2007 was 81.30. OILB price on the same date was 63 (approx) Crude continuous closing price on 9 January 2009 was 40.83. OILB was 32.88. So during the same period the price of Crude has halved and the price of OILB has halved. So there doesn't appear to be a loss due to rolling to the next contract each month. I had thought that the ETF would be managed in such a way as to minimise loss during roll over, ie selling the front month at what looks like good point, then when the next month falls locking into that at the most cost effective point possible. Am I missing something here? Is it just that the difference between months is less pronounced with Brent as opposed to WTI therefore the traders managing the fund can minimise losses?
  17. Perishabull

    Platinum?

    Pyewackitt, I have been looking into this and think there is some value here, also in Palladium. Obviously these have been massively sold down as we are headed into recession, much less industrial demand. Hedge funds are liquidating to raise cash for redemptions so I suspect there is an element of that also. However, I think the value comes from various angles here; The cost of mining Platinum and Palladium is highly correlated with the cost of oil. Oil has gone from $147 to $70, this is not going to last forever. From what I have read, most of the world's production comes from South Africa and Russia, their respective currencies have lost a lot of ground to the dollar. Therefore, input costs, especially for the South African mines, will be a lot higher. That will inevitably lead to profitabilty concerns and production could be cut to limit supply and boost the metal price, or one of the few mines could close, again leading to less supply and higher metal prices. The credit contraction could also lead to funding problems meaning less profitable mines could hit problems. You will have been reading about Deripaska in the papers, he needs credit for his Nikel mining company, they also produce Palladium or Platinum, I forget which. If he can't get it the mining company is going to have problems. Check out - http://www.platinum.matthey.com/ I am considering investing in both metals using ETFs, ETFS Physical Platinum (PHPT) and ETFS Physical Palladium (PHPD). I had a quick look at the ETFS website, it appears that they are backed by allocated metal but I will have to go through all the small print, I will have to consider the forex component of the trade however it is difficult to see sterling appreciating against the dollar anytime soon. Had a quick look at physical and the prices are WAY above spot. The considerations here appear to be, how much further can the prices fall? When is the bottom likely to be in? Any other ideas regarding methods to invest in these Pyewackitt? Do you think the products I mentioned are safe?
  18. Perishabull

    GOLD

    A large tract of this selling is no doubt due to hedge fund redemptions triggering forced liquidation to meet demands for cash, this causes asset price devaluation and leads to further redemption requests, forced liquidation and the cycle repeats. I'm no expert but hedge funds would probably need to sell x% of all positions in order to raise cash rather than select a particular sector otherwise this would disrupt their current hedging model. Possibly this is one of the reasons why Jim Sinclair stated there would be huge volatility. Dan Norcini on jsmineset.com also alluded to the covering of large shorts, this would account for some of the large upward spikes in the price. I was about to buy a large quantity when the price was at $880 but hesitated. In any market where assets are owned on leverage and the credit that the leverage is based on is being wound down I would expect to see continued downside in the price. I would also expect to see a gradual continuing reduction in the volatility as the amount of credit in the market is rebalanced with the amount of credit willingly supplied to the players in the market. Roughly translated I am going to purchase again when the price calms down and goes sideways for a bit, maybe at 600 - 700 with no wild swings. The $64,000 question is will the downward trend in gold end with a sudden event like Pakistan chaos, inflation getting out of hand or a bond collapse? I am thinking March next year but that may be leaving it too late.
  19. Perishabull

    GOLD

    I saw one interview of Roubini where he was asked about what he does with his own money, he is a very risk averse investor. Opting for mutual funds etc. The man would have made a fortune shorting banks and buying gold but he is too busy being an economist and professor I guess.
  20. Perishabull

    GOLD

    Just for the record I'm 10% in physical Gold/Silver on a 1/5 ratio. I had also purchased Dec Call 800 Gold warrants that I have just bailed out of (lightweight) at a modest profit due to the incapacity of my thinking to concur with gold being much above 800 by year end. You may know me as an amateur (and you would be correct) however I simply cannot connect all the dots to such a comprehensive degree to assert a definitive view that gold will be north of $800 by year end. It appears obvious to many no doubt, but not to me.
  21. Perishabull

    GOLD

    And so...what if we are all wrong? George Soros, along with other prominent investors, holds no shame in admitting that he gets things wrong from time to time, after all, it's in our nature isn't it? Otherwise senseless wars would not occur, economic crisis would not occur, people would never make mistakes would they? Unless we get things wrong sometimes. So what if you are wrong? Yes you? What if we are all wrong, what if the hyper-inflationists are wrong, what if the deflationists are wrong? What then? The point I bring to this table is that our strongly held views can sometimes ensure that differing, and sometimes valid views are blindsided by our strongly held position or view. And these strongly held views can sometimes immediately discount an opposing point of view, without due thought or consideration. If money is printed to replace money being lost as a result of malinvestment is that inflationary, deflationary or simply keeping things as they were in relation to the initial investment? As far as I can see it may be temporarily inflationary since it brings funds into the system that can be used for another purpose immediately rather than being trapped in a deflating asset. That said the deflating asset will, at some stage, be sold and will realise at least some value, that will then add to the replaced funds at some stage, and therefore add inflation to the system. Is gold a barometer of inflation? Is it? Is it a barometer of peoples confidence in the banking system/currency? If a barometer of inflation then why should gold reach an inflation adjusted level? Is it dangerous to visit the same forums day by day Jim Sinclair et al? Without considering other points of view?
  22. Perishabull

    GOLD

    Ok everyone I would like to get a broad consensus of opinion on what the price of gold will be by year end. Optimists AND pessimists please. I don't think $1000 will be re-tested this year and think $960 by year end. I think we will be looking at a moderate rally in US equities until year end however I expect the dollar index is going to be 72 by year end. What do you think? Perishabull
  23. Perishabull

    GOLD

    Yes it certainly has bubble characteristics, it's difficult to call though as the factors that influence the market are many (inflation/deflation/geopolitical etc) making it difficult to call (unlike the housing market for example). So wrongmove, hypothetically, if you had funds to invest in gold at what price point would you feel content to invest for a long term hold? PB
  24. Perishabull

    GOLD

    Hi there folks, well, like the rest of you I think we have all been surprised by the recent price action in the gold and silver markets. I have 11% exposure to these metals having increased my silver holdings at $17.1 just a few days ago! Oddly I'm not massively concerned, worst case scenario is that a medium term holding becomes a long term holding. It does strike me as odd the sudden turnaround in sentiment however, this to my eye seems to be some rather clever PR work and timely intervention in the markets by Uncle Sam and it's worked very well it has to be said. It almost seems like some cosmic joke, gold and silver take a beating during the Olympics...definately planned. In the medium term I don't see oil sub $100, this in my view will support continued worldwide inflation at unsustainable levels. Once everyone realises this then the gold and silver bulls (and commodities) should march on for the last leg of the secular bull market, how long this takes is anyones guess but my feeling is up to 9 months. I was going to say I feel sorry for those that went all in however that only really applies if this is the end of a bubble.
  25. Perishabull

    GOLD

    I got in with 800 call (Dec) warrants at 880, two days too early it would seem as I wrongly gauged there would be some serious support at that level. Some points to consider; "Be courageous when everyone else is getting fearful" - I think these are Buffetts words Market manipulation - How long? How far? How much? The first point gave me the courage to go for it however what about the second? My gut feeling is that those that pull the levers took advantage of gold's decline to blow through positions, in gold, certainly the dollar, possibly other markets. I'm no expert but the move in the Euro/Dollar looked exceptionally unnatural and the DJIA daily chart on Friday just doesn't look right. Sir Isaac Newtons words; "Actioni contrariam semper et æqualem esse reactionem: sive corporum duorum actiones in se mutuo semper esse æquales et in partes contrarias dirigi." Or for those of us that don't speak latin - All forces occur in pairs, and these two forces are equal in magnitude and opposite in direction. In other words "For every action there is an equal, but opposite, reaction". I believe that if you push a spring hard enough and let it go, it might just fly back in your face and give you a bloody nose, or if you give it a hard enough push then it might knock you out. I also believe in the law of unintended consequences, the failure of man to recognise that his actions are contributing to problems rather than mitgating them is a widespread problem, I believe. What are your thoughts?
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