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Perishabull

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Everything posted by Perishabull

  1. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    Yesterday's trade; 4 trades yesterday, 4 losses 1 SIM trade on Euro, 1 win An inauspicious return to the futures markets so far for PositiveDeviant
  2. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    Yesterday's trade; 3 trades, 3 losses No SIM trades on Euro
  3. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    Today's trade E-Mini Dow Jones 1 trade today, 1 loss Euro futures 1 SIM trade today, 1 breakeven Markets very quiet today
  4. What I would consider to be a healthy interest rate would be something like this; So there is a clear incentive to accumulate, to build initial interest in the currency, but a declining interest rate curve in order to try and dissuade people from cornering too much of the market. Of course you would also need to make it cumbersome to open multiple accounts otherwise people could spread their funds accross many accounts to avoid the drop in interest rate felt by the larger holders. In fact you could even have the curve turn slightly negative at higher amounts to push the characteristics towards the 'currency utility' angle of the spectrum and away from the 'speculative vehicle' end. (To discourage hoarding) Perhaps even some sort of limited reward for using the currency. Maintenance of an interest rate or some other feature, again though difficult to predict that it would be used as intended and not just simply transferred back and forth between family members in order to retain some benefit or other.
  5. The problem with currencies with a negative interest rate is that in order for them to work all the other currencies would also need to have a negative interest rate since if they don't then people will naturally opt for the one with the higher yield, (or at least no loss of capital). In some ways its arguable that currencies already have a defacto negative interest rate via the ever insidious inflation, and that is likely a key factor in the current popularity of bitcoin. If we take this one step further, ie we say a key factor in Bitcoins popularity is that it cannot be debased and that the monetary base will only grow at a pre-determined rate, then one way to potentially usurp bitcoin would be to create a new currency that had a positive interest rate. Quite how that would work in practice is another matter.
  6. This is a big problem for newcomers. I contacted the people at feathercoin after visiting their website to query what the advantages were with their currency over others, they contacted me back to explain how to buy the currency and completely ignored the part where I asked about advantages. I have to say that if the people who created it can't market it then frankly it is doomed. It makes me wonder whether they are teeing it up for some sort of pump and dump.
  7. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    Updated chart to reflect break in trading; My break from trading is over. I had planned to stop during the festive period anyway however toward the end of December my old broker was unable to continue to provide the data that I need to trade, so I had to switch, that and I was busy with work. That's now over and I'm now with Crossland LLC who have really been first class in giving me everything I need. So I'm back trading again as of today and looking to build on the progress I've made so far. Just as a refresher I'll be trading E-Mini Dow Jones futures on my live account, and Euro futures on a SIM account. I'd been researching trading Euro futures and the results were rather favourable so I'm looking for that to continue too, if I see 3 cumulative months of positive results I'll need to strongly consider including that as part of my trading.
  8. Perishabull

    Van's Journal 2014

    Where do you think it's headed, and in what timeframe?
  9. Continuing problems at Mt Gox, down as low as $220 today; I can't find any news regarding the reason for the continued drop, I guess people are just panicking now. Price on Bitstamp is $623. EDIT: Seems some people on Reddit think Mt Gox just got hacked. Oh dear.
  10. Perishabull

    GOLD

    It looks like we are at an interesting point in the gold market, technically speaking. This chart is Gold continuous futures, March 2001 to present;in LOG The key long term trend is still in play. And the sentiment picture looks interesting too;
  11. Bitcoin transaction volume has dropped over previous 12 months Source : Blockchain;
  12. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    I've moved over to Crossland LLC, Chicago based firm. Just in process of getting set up with data, order routing etc Looking forward to starting back where I left off. I may not trade immediately from day 1, I maybe need to do some testing to check the data but certainly expect to be active within the market in the next 2 weeks.
  13. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    I'm looking into getting set up with either Dorman Trading or Advantage Futures at the moment, both appear to be reputable firms, I'm waiting on details of platforms, data feeds offered, costs involved etc.
  14. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    Due to an issue with the Zen-Fire data provider I formerly used I am unable to trade and my broker has no ETA for when the issues will be resolved therefore I'm considering changing broker. I'm looking at different factors, I found that the CFTC publish financial data on FCMs, so you can consider factors such as adjusted net capital, customer segregated funds etc for each FCM relative to each other. See link below to PDF from the CFTC website with the latest data published; http://www.cftc.gov/ucm/groups/public/@financialdataforfcms/documents/file/fcmdata1013.pdf Another worthwhile link is the NFA where you can search for regulatory actions taken against any futures broker https://www.nfa.futures.org/basicnet/ There's an article on Bloomberg from January last year looking at the ratio of excess capital relative to net adjusted capital for FCMs. May also be of interest. "Adjusted net capital is the amount of regulatory capital available to meet the minimum net capital requirement as set by the CFTC. Excess net capital is the amount by which adjusted net capital exceeds the net capital requirement. The higher the ratio, the more capital the firm has available beyond what is required." CFTC-Registered Firms? Excess to Net Capital Ratios - Bloomberg
  15. Volatility is a major flaw. Bitcoin is not a one way market, businesses aren't likely to want to hold large quantities when the value can fluctuate so dramatically. It's true you have the like of Richard Branson and others coming out saying they accept Bitcoins for Virgin Galactic, that's an obvious and easy route to free publicity and advertising for his brand - he's very good at using the media I that way. I'm sure as soon as they get Bitcoins they are converted to actual currency. Why didn't the creators of Bitcoins include limits to price movement such as are present in many futures markets? There could be a trading halt if, for example, price moves 10% in one day. One flaw that I have never heard discussed is that to have a currency that is truly intended as an efficient means of exchange there should be some form of mechanism to dissuade people from hoarding. People have a natural tendency to hoard resources and money is no exception. I believe there should be some form of mechanism for those people/companies/investors who hold very large amounts whereby a small % is taken per year and redistributed. So for example if a holder had over a certain number of bitcoins, let's say 10000 averaged over a year, then a single digit % would be taken and redistributed to dissuade people from hoarding and encourage them to use it only as a means of exchange. There could be a tiered system so for every 10000 coins held the % would be slightly higher. Or it could be linked to the number of bitcoins in circulation to dissuade people from holding too much of the market. The question of what happens to the redistributed Bitcoins is another matter but it could be redistributed to smaller holders perhaps. My point here is that money takes on different meanings at different amounts. Eg people spend small amounts without thinking about it, larger amounts of money have a different meaning and are viewed differently, eg as savings or as an investment. If something is truly to act as an efficient means of exchange there really should be a mechanism to push people towards spending rather than hoarding. Since hoarding a currency is in direct conflict with the function of a currency as a means of exchange. I have often thought about all the 'dormant' money lying in accounts worldwide and that if even some small % of that was caused to be spent in reaction to an anti-hoarding mechanism, how much of a boost would this provide to the world economy? There must surely be a direct correlation between the rate that currency flows in an economy and the rate of economic development, as there is a correlation between data transfer rates over the internet and the development of the internet itself. People are buying Bitcoins because they think the price will continue higher. If the price were suddenly fixed at a certain level how much would the open interest decline by? My guess is that 90% of the volume would disappear.
  16. Perishabull

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    I just found this proverb which I adore; Tension is who you think you should be. Relaxation is who you are. Chinese Proverb There is some form of bizarre contractual dispute broken out between my data provider and their trade execution software provider that means my platform provider has to develop a new API in order to enable me to trade. The platform guys have told me this should take days rather than weeks. A bit on the vague indefinite side for my liking but there's nothing I can realistically do, I could try and take my business to another broker but that would inevitably involve weeks rather than days with all the paperwork involved. So it seems I will be taking an enforced short break from trading. I was expecting to start again on Monday, that seems unlikely now.
  17. Perishabull

    SILVER

    Excerpt from ZEAL LLC; https://connectpro58377496.adobeconnect.com/_a816688188/p2kjpz6nwwz/?launcher=false&fcsContent=true&pbMode=normal "Silver Stocks 5 Scott Wright December 27, 2013 2154 Words 2013 has been a brutal year for silver. And a brutal year for a metal obviously doesn’t bode well for its mining stocks. Companies that have been exploring for deposits, developing mines, and producing silver have sadly become the pariahs of the markets. But if silver’s fortunes change in 2014, as they ought to, then right now could be one of the best buying opportunities of this entire secular bull market. Unfortunately silver is currently in a sentiment wasteland. Even contemplating a foray into this metal, let alone its stocks, is a fool’s errand to the majority of mainstream investors. Their mindset is why bother wasting even a cent of precious capital investing in a sector led by an asset that’s down 36% on the year. It’s much more prudent to throw money at the ever-rising stock markets, right? Indeed the bloated general stock markets have sucked in a lot of silver’s capital. With the headline indices all soaring to record heights, more and more investors have joined the herd to chase the gains. This has left little room for alternative investments like silver, fundamentals be damned. And as a result, this metal and its associated stocks have greatly suffered. The artificially-levitating stock markets aren’t silver’s only problem though. And certainly the biggest one by far is its association with gold. Sadly gold has endured a panic-stricken year that has devastated the entire precious-metals realm. The mass exodus from bullion-backed ETFs and an anomalous futures-shorting bonanzahave left mass quantities of blood on gold’s streets. And silver has been unable to avoid the splash damage. It’s no secret that silver’s performance is slave to gold’s. It essentially mirrors the directionality of its big brother, with much more volatility on both the upside and downside given its smaller market. As goes gold, so goes silver. So until gold turns, silver will almost certainly remain stuck in its rut. Fortunately gold is overdue for a massive recovery rally. Even with the rampant ETF selling, it still has incredibly strong structural fundamentals. It should soar on its own merits, but an overdue stock-market correction is sure to accelerate investors’ desire to put capital back to work in this sector. For a myriad of reasons I suspect gold will be the story of 2014. When gold comes back, so will silver. And silver’s gains ought to dramatically outpace gold’s, like they usually do. Speculators are naturally drawn to silver in precious-metals uplegs, they crave upside leverage. And this metal still has its own strong fundamentals to attract in a more diverse crowd (indispensable industrial usage and essentially the same investment allure as gold). Silver even has a leg up on gold considering the stability of its premier bullion-backed ETF. While gold’s flagship GLD ETF has seen its holdings fall by a staggering 40% in 2013, silver’s flagship SLV ETF has seen its holdings remain stable. This is an incredible show of relative strength. SLV’s physical inventory happens to be at the same level today as it was at the beginning of the year (324m ounces). This certainly demonstrates strong hands amidst silver’s slump! And it points to what should be amajor boost to this ETF’s holdings once investors actually shift capital back to silver. Finally once silver again starts to shine, investors will naturally return to the mining stocks. And they’ll return in droves to chase after gains that normally positively leverage a rising silver price. And the return to silver stocks won’t come a minute too soon considering their dilapidated state. With leverage being a two-way street, the silver miners have been crushed amidst silver’s decline. This three-year chart of silver and Global X’s Silver Miners ETF (SIL) shows just how bad things have been for the silver stocks.
  18. Perishabull

    SILVER

    Excerpt from Silver Phoenix 500; "Silver Price To Head Higher As Cost of Production Forms A Base Many precious metal investors today are troubled by the current weakness in the price of silver and are concerned that prices could fall much lower. While the price of silver could continue to fall a bit from here, it’s more likely we will see a higher, rather than a lower trend in 2014. If we look at the table below, we can see the total three-quarters of financial metrics from my top 12 primary silver miners. By adding up all the figures, we can see some interesting data points. For example, the top 12 primary silver miners recorded a combined $2.36 billion in total revenue for Q1-Q3, while their adjusted income amounted to only $1.4 million. Thus, the average realized price received by the top 12 silver miners for the first nine months of 2013, was $24.58. Their estimated silver break-even turns out to be one cent less at $24.57. Even though this is the average for the first three-quarters of the year, the group was able to lower their break-even to $21.39 in Q3. I don’t believe the break-even will be much less (and probably higher) due to the fact that the group sold 1.4 million more silver in Q3 than they produced. Furthermore, the group produced 68.8 million oz of silver for the first nine months of 2013 while they sold 69.7 million oz. I highly doubt they will continue to sell more silver than they are producing for the next several quarters. It is quite amazing to see that these 12 primary silver miners had $2.36 billion in revenue during the first nine months of 2013 while only showing $1.4 million of adjusted income. The power of the FED is mighty indeed. The net income of a negative $554 million for the Q1-Q3 was due to the huge write-downs during the second quarter. The Price Of Silver Is Below The Group Average Cost of Production The current price of silver is $19.40, while the estimated break-even for the top 12 primary silver miners in Q3 was $21.39. According to Kitco, the average price of silver so far in Q4 is $20.76 or 63 cents less than the prior quarter. I imagine we may see continued losses from the group in the last quarter as the miners receive a lower price for their silver and as stockpiled silver sales are reduced. However, there is a chance that we may indeed see a small gain for the group in Q4 if the by-product revenues increase due to stronger prices for copper, zinc and lead (Q over Q) and costs continue to decline."
  19. Perishabull

    SILVER

    Sentiment December 18th
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