Perishabull

Hi DrBubb, and others, hope you are all staying healthy, wealthy and wise! I've been around GEI for quite some time from a few years back. Bitcoin is of course an incredibly interesting market. I first bought bitcoins back in 2014 (behind the curve to say the least) and have been developing my interest in this space particularly early this year with other cryptocurrencies.

Some alarm bells are ringing here however;

Exhibit 1;

John McAfee says that not only Bitcoin isn't a bubble but that you cannot call it one.

JOHN McAFEE: Here's why you can't call bitcoin a 'bubble'

http://uk.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-price-john-mcafee-not-a-bubble-2017-8

"Likewise, what people see as a bitcoin "bubble," from the perspective of the new paradigm, is merely the predictable and systematic devaluation of fiat currencies that will continue, with obvious ups and downs, until all fiat currencies reach the zero point."

The price of gold however, is not currently reflecting the "predictable and systematic devaluation of fiat currencies " so it is as yet unclear why this devaluation would only be reflected in the cryptocurrency markets.

Exhibit 2;

The shoeshine boys are getting in on it;

Middle America is in love with Bitcoin

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/middle-america-crazy-love-bitcoin-n789011/

"One of them, Ryan Williams, a 35-year-old school bus driver, admits he doesn't fully understand how Bitcoin or its rivals work."

Exhibit 3;

A successful boxer is now exhorting on all things crypto;

https://www.coindesk.com/boxing-champ-floyd-mayweather-just-promoted-ico-instagram/

"I'm gonna make a $hit t$n of money ... on the Stox.com ICO"

Could you imagine Mayweather being the figurehead for an Initial Public Offfering? I don't see that would fly unless it was boxing related.

I have various interests in Cryptocurrencies but bailed out of 1/5 of my bitcoin, dash and ethereum holdings today.

Gold - long term (log)

That was some move in silver at the start of December, over a dollar lower then a jump back up.

The spikes in volume since the low have been larger on the up moves relative to the down moves since then. Is the market signalling a low there?

I wasn't certain whether that last post wasn't a very subtle piece of satire.

 

There is only one factor that affects the price of silver and I don't know why people are still bothering with pointless and irrelevant things such as supply and demand and technical analysis.

Thanks for your post, it just prompted a quick piece of analysis that strongly suggests that the principal factor affecting the price of silver is the price of GOLD;

Not that this should be news to anybody but looking at it in a scientific way always helps.

From the Guardian on 22nd October;

"Oil baron Nelson Bunker Hunt dies

Texan built on his fathers oil riches but lurched into financial disaster with scheme to corner silver market

Nelson Bunker Hunt, a Texas oilman who once tried to corner the silver market with one of his brothers only to see the move end in financial disaster, has died. He was 88.

Hunt died on Tuesday at a Dallas assisted living centre after a long battle with Alzheimers disease, said his brother, W Herbert Hunt.

Hunt had been among the worlds wealthiest men. His father was the legendary Texas oilman HL Hunt, who left behind a multi-billion dollar fortune and set up Placid Oil, once one of the biggest independent oil companies."

Seems especially poignant given the silver market appears to be dead.

Perhaps his death will mark the low.

Kim Jong-il's death on 17th December 2011 created much hysteria in North Korea which peaked on 29th December, the day of an intermediate low in silver from which the market rallied $10 in 2 months.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/oct/22/oil-baron-nelson-bunker-hunt-dies

PSLV is an interesting one to look at given it's premium tends to expand on upswings.

PSLV vs SLV

I recall buying it late 2010, on day 4 after launch, prior to the huge move up in silver. Premium to NAV is currently declared as being 3.95% on the trust website. http://sprottphysicalbullion.com/sprott-physical-silver-trust/net-asset-value/

That's a big call, I've been looking for some recent sentiment data, but so far only have late May;

 

("Gold looks Set for a Big Run-up"), a recent post, has been turned into a Video:

 

PLEASE SHARE ! And subscribe, if you have not already.

 

 

A key thing to look at is that Correlation with US Debt, which goes on Rising:

 

Swings have been about $500, to either side of Debt's Gold equivalent.

 

History-- : Fed'l Debt : - $4.00 : x 119 : + $100 : Gold-Ln : Differ.

End2015 $19.0 eTr. : $15.00 : $1789: $1,889 : --------> +$500 = about $2,400

End2014: $18.2 eTr. : $14.20 : $1690: $1,790 :

06/30/14 : $17.63 Tr. : $13.63 : $1621: $1,721 : $1,315 : (406) :

12/31/13 : $17.35 Tr. : $13.35 : $1589: $1,689 : $1,202 : (487) :

06/30/13 : $16.74 Tr. : $12.74 : $1516: $1,616 : $1,192 : (424) :

Peak :

09/06/11 : $15.22 Tr. : $11.22 : $1335: $1,435 : $1,895 : $460 :

So far, so good.

The previous two Videos, have stood the test of Time very well:

May 15, 2014 : Major Low in Gold, before end of July - $500 of "easy upside"

June 6, 2014 : The Bellwethers have Rung! A Gold Low may now be in place

 

Great video Bubb, salient points and concise too

One of the posters on 24k (azazel?) was saying that he took the coins into the pub and tried to get the other customers to get the bar staff to accept them. They are certainly worth having as a discussion piece, a souvenir and for possible numismatic value (not that I know anything about that) but the "proper" coins are the better bet in the long term.

 

Edit: Of course the 20 pound coins would become a lot more interesting if the silver price approached or exceeded 30 pounds an ounce.

 

 

Wowsers, that must be one of the greatest trades of all time!

 

I even had a look back earlier in the thread and you nailed it to the day. This thread makes great reading, the parabolic move starts at about page 245 of this thread and should be read by everyone.

You should check out the '$50-ish Peak in Silver Coming? Hunting the Top' thread

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=14696&p=212977

The current silver value contained in the coins is £6.77 (0.55 ounce per coin) so I would expect to see a large expansion in premium and demand for these coins as silver approaches £36.36 per ounce. That's the point where the value of the silver in the coin approaches the fiat value.

You can buy in mutiples of 5. I bought 10 the other night in two transactions. Free post if you buy at least three. I will wait for those 10 to show up and then buy 10 more. I always pop them out of the packaging for spending. Morrisons and a local pub accept them now too, without a fight.

What's interesting is that if sufficient people did what you are doing, and actually spent them, it would generate quite a bit more press interest too. It would be interesting to know what the banks do when a Tesco or a pub drops off their takings for the evening. Do they put the coin back into circulation?

If the opposite situation happened, ie someone paid for goods with a £50 note and part of their change included one of these coins I think 99% would not accept it (thinking it was fake).

The absurdity is that it's really of more value given the dual fiat / commodity aspect.

Zerohedge are sensationalising the drop yesterday

There were two large volume spikes in the August Gold futures contract, one of over 4800 after 7am, and another over 10,000 at 2pm

Zerohedge are painting this as significant however when it's the other way round do they write about it?

Here's August Gold futures on 5th June

A huge volume spike of over 10,000 contracts before the open sending the price shooting higher

'Upward' manipulation doesn't make such a good story though does it.

Maximum is 5 coins and it's £20 if you want them sent to HK

 

 

 

They are back...

£20 silver coin for £20 delivered (if you order 3 or more)

Just ordered mine.

You can't lose really, I mean just spend the £20 if silver never makes a moonshot.

 

 

http://www.royalmint.com/shop/Outbreak_2014_UK_20_Fine_Silver_Coin

 

 

 

 

 

Which one of you was it?

 

Just ordered 10 - exchanging £ for £, getting a free call on silver and coins with an automatic premium due to their relative rarity. It's a no brainer isn't it.

Buyers on ebay have been happily snapping up the previously released coins, paying premiums from 25% to 62.5% above their legal tender value.

I away on my travels with work right now and in the gym this morning at 7am was some property programme on TV. I don't watch TV hence usually avoid these things. But really FFS 7am!

Another reminder of how obsessed the British are with property.

Given the governments perennial mandate for ever higher prices I wouldn't be surprised if they had an unseen hand in this diet of propaganda fed to the general public.

Volume on SLV been exceptionally low of late - stark contrast to the top three years ago.

Silver futures

Sentiment

COT

Seasonality

Looks interesting at this point

Gold sentiment;

Silver sentiment

3 years after the top...

2003 - present;

And in log for the purists;

]

Gold 2003 onwards

And in log for the purists;

It looks like we are at an interesting point in the gold market, technically speaking.

This chart is Gold continuous futures, March 2001 to present;in LOG

The key long term trend is still in play.

And the sentiment picture looks interesting too;

Excerpt from ZEAL LLC;

https://connectpro58377496.adobeconnect.com/_a816688188/p2kjpz6nwwz/?launcher=false&fcsContent=true&pbMode=normal

"Silver Stocks 5

Scott Wright December 27, 2013 2154 Words

2013 has been a brutal year for silver. And a brutal year for a metal obviously doesn’t bode well for its mining stocks. Companies that have been exploring for deposits, developing mines, and producing silver have sadly become the pariahs of the markets. But if silver’s fortunes change in 2014, as they ought to, then right now could be one of the best buying opportunities of this entire secular bull market.

Unfortunately silver is currently in a sentiment wasteland. Even contemplating a foray into this metal, let alone its stocks, is a fool’s errand to the majority of mainstream investors. Their mindset is why bother wasting even a cent of precious capital investing in a sector led by an asset that’s down 36% on the year. It’s much more prudent to throw money at the ever-rising stock markets, right?

Indeed the bloated general stock markets have sucked in a lot of silver’s capital. With the headline indices all soaring to record heights, more and more investors have joined the herd to chase the gains. This has left little room for alternative investments like silver, fundamentals be damned. And as a result, this metal and its associated stocks have greatly suffered.

The artificially-levitating stock markets aren’t silver’s only problem though. And certainly the biggest one by far is its association with gold. Sadly gold has endured a panic-stricken year that has devastated the entire precious-metals realm. The mass exodus from bullion-backed ETFs and an anomalous futures-shorting bonanzahave left mass quantities of blood on gold’s streets. And silver has been unable to avoid the splash damage.

It’s no secret that silver’s performance is slave to gold’s. It essentially mirrors the directionality of its big brother, with much more volatility on both the upside and downside given its smaller market. As goes gold, so goes silver. So until gold turns, silver will almost certainly remain stuck in its rut.

Fortunately gold is overdue for a massive recovery rally. Even with the rampant ETF selling, it still has incredibly strong structural fundamentals. It should soar on its own merits, but an overdue stock-market correction is sure to accelerate investors’ desire to put capital back to work in this sector. For a myriad of reasons I suspect gold will be the story of 2014.

When gold comes back, so will silver. And silver’s gains ought to dramatically outpace gold’s, like they usually do. Speculators are naturally drawn to silver in precious-metals uplegs, they crave upside leverage. And this metal still has its own strong fundamentals to attract in a more diverse crowd (indispensable industrial usage and essentially the same investment allure as gold).

Silver even has a leg up on gold considering the stability of its premier bullion-backed ETF. While gold’s flagship GLD ETF has seen its holdings fall by a staggering 40% in 2013, silver’s flagship SLV ETF has seen its holdings remain stable. This is an incredible show of relative strength.

SLV’s physical inventory happens to be at the same level today as it was at the beginning of the year (324m ounces). This certainly demonstrates strong hands amidst silver’s slump! And it points to what should be amajor boost to this ETF’s holdings once investors actually shift capital back to silver.

Finally once silver again starts to shine, investors will naturally return to the mining stocks. And they’ll return in droves to chase after gains that normally positively leverage a rising silver price.

And the return to silver stocks won’t come a minute too soon considering their dilapidated state. With leverage being a two-way street, the silver miners have been crushed amidst silver’s decline. This three-year chart of silver and Global X’s Silver Miners ETF (SIL) shows just how bad things have been for the silver stocks.