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lardoon

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About lardoon

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    Centurion

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    london
  1. lardoon

    Silver Wheaton

    Looking at this morning action - that seems like a good call. Where would you see gold headed to? I see a potential immediate pullback but still an upleg until beginning next year (end Q1-start Q2?). In terms of Silver I had 10.50 (20 day Moving average and breakout level) as immediate pullback/"load up some more" target - I guess that would translate to 820-840 in Gold. Terrible - I go against my own advice of not listening to other people opinions! I guess I should have added that its always good to follow regularly a few (only) "good and trusted" commentators - which you are part of Dr Bubb... I personally tend to ignore the ultra-bulls (Sinclair, etc.) as they really give you a bullish bias which can be detrimental to your short-term analysis PS - sorry I just realised this is slightly off-topic..
  2. lardoon

    Silver Wheaton

    One thing I have learnt is to not go all at once with your position... Since the last 2 months I have been trading silver quite actively with a more speculative account and had much better results than my Buy and Hold account - which has been devastated this year and scaling in and out of a position definitely helped... So I usually take a long-term view (ie daily chart). 2 months ago I had decided that silver was in a bullish divergence and was going to build a base with a view to bouncing back later (ie NOW!).. So I set my strategy to trade that range and that worked pretty well using a combination of TA analysis, "daily seasonal" trading (ie big movements and counter-movements tend to come at 13:00, 13:30, 15:00, etc.). Although I have to say that by monitoring it about 12 hours a day you get some sort of feel for the market and that helps too (ie a spike down before one of these important times might mean the trend wwill be in the other direction (ie stop hunting). Anyway my main strategy was to gauge the spikes up or down and to scale in and out and not all at once (ie if it goes up by 5% by a certain time of the day, there is a big chance that it will pull back later in the evening. So start selling, if it goes up more sell more, etc... same on the way down... And that is the important bit... I think because 1) psychology: if you only sell a small portion of your position at any given time it will drastically reduce the emotional impact of the price moving against you and the mistakes that you might make as a result (and remember that this gives you more opportunity to sell or buy progressively) - for example I have my core position fully invested right now but since I turned long-term bullish after we broke out of 10.50 I decided to change my strategy and add 20% to it more on pullback. When the price was at 11.40 I did not really care if it went up (ie my position value goes up) or if it went down (giving me more opportunity to add to my core position) - which I did today at 11.10 but only for 10% more - leaving me room to add some more if it keeps going down - as it seems to be doing right now! 2)benefits of averaging in - its super hard (I find) to time the exact high or top - if you average in you are much more likely to get in/out at around that level. You can also have X% of your full committed position - that helped me a few weeks ago, while I identified that we were in oversold territory but did not want to sell everything at that price and completely miss out if the price got spiked up (that was to do with talks of backwardation, defaults, etc.) I reduced my pos by 50% to book in some profits and reduce my risk to a downside while keeping ssome exposure to an upside movement. The price ended up going lower - at which point I loaded back up the full position. You might have wanted to do some of this with your SLW. the downside to this is when you get the mother of all upmoves, you are likely to miss it because you scaled out too early - however the profits from all the previous trading might outweigh the lost opportunity As I said that has been pretty succesful: I initially got in at 9.25 on 24th October and by trading my account size around 75 times over, over the last 2 months I have managed to get a return of just under 300% while silver "only" returned 18%. So trading short term is definitely possible and can be very profitable - but speculative. The thing that worries me is how I would react in adversity (ie price really going against me) as that has not happened too much these last 2 months (well the price has been terrible to me from March to November and I was only in Buy and Hold mode by then so its time it works out better!), I hope that I would have the strength to cut my losses and start again from a lower level. I havent managed to apply these to stocks. I recently bought a fair bit of GDX (the position is marginally bigger and this might have a psychological effect) - I personally find it sslightly harder to trade as it is correlated both to gold and the Stock market also - but I did average in over 1-2 weeks and I am quite happy of my average price (which ended up being lower than the price when I decided to get in). So to cut that long story short, I think if you intend on trading, do not under-estimate psychology and emotions (sorry if that sounds cliche) and scaling in and out of positions is a great tool to alleviate emotional side of trading. Also and very important: do not read too many opinions about the market (ie I would recommend AGAINST reading this forum - at least the gold one too much/often) this really messes up with your head.. Remeber you'll always find bulls, bears and sheeps expressing lots of different opinions. Hope all this helps - I find it pretty hard though but a good training for the mind!
  3. Interesting... you dont believe in solar for powering (heating, fuelling) your house? I probably havent done as much research as you but I would have thought that solar panels coupled with batteries could provide for heating a decent-sized house - especially in France where they get better climate than here in the UK...
  4. lardoon

    GOLD

    So now we have 3 definitions for gold backwardation: cg: LBMA GOFO rate is negative (as happened in late November) http://www.lbma.org.uk/?area=stats&page=gofo/2008gofo Antal Fekete: spot price > front month futures price Trader Dan (and most common definition as I understand it): front month futures price > farther month futures price I guess these all point towards the same things but that just makes thing a bit complicated to understand when gold actually IS in backwardation...
  5. lardoon

    SILVER

    Try this: http://www.oanda.com/convert/fxhistory They have prices going back to 1990 - you need to get the raw dataa as CSV and paste it in Excel and do the chart yourself though...
  6. lardoon

    GOLD

    The problem is that I really dont understand how you draw your channels... Its always a bit of guess work but the main descending channel you drew is violated both on the upper and lower bands and dont really seem to fit makes me a bit skeptical of basing one's analysis on this...
  7. lardoon

    GOLD

    I agree with you - I was just trying to "cheekily" point out that there might be other factors to the retail shortage. But I am only playing devil's advocate here as I am bullish on gold - just wary of the downside
  8. lardoon

    GOLD

    Why can you buy 1,000,000 and above tons of wheat on the futures market (and take delivery) but you cant buy 10ks worth of flour packets without hunting them down? I dont necessarily see the issue as being too different.. Have you tried taking delivery of 1,000,000 on the LME or COMEX? James Turk has (I am assuming he deals with these numbers in GM) and he did not have to hunt them down...
  9. lardoon

    GOLD

    But what price is he talking about? (as in "the price would double in a very short amount of time") I am assuming this is the paper price also? If so investing in paper also makes sense??? The 1980 price of 850 was in the paper market also wasnt it?
  10. lardoon

    GOLD

    They can hedge their stock via the futures market. This is the PRIMARY purpose of any Futures market (which was invented by the Chinese or Japanese for Rice I believe - and I speculate there was not much market manipulation by PPT teams there ). Lets say I am a dealer, today I buy all my stock of 100,000oz in the Cash market at $12. At the same time I would sell the same amount in the Futures market (which should more or less track the spot price) so Short 100,000oz at ~$12 Tomorrow the spot price is $11: my stock has lost $100,000 but my futures contract has gained $100,000 - I havent lost anything. I sell 10,000oz at a 5% premium and this is my profit - no profit or loss on the silver itself as it is hedged. As my stock is now 90,000oz I can reduce my short Futures position by 10,000oz and so on until the stock is finished... I recommend this article from Antal ekete which contains a part on the silver basis which also covers agricultural futures explained as a hedge: http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_04/fekete050404.html
  11. lardoon

    SILVER

    I dont know why but I get bad vibes from Jason Hommel. It makes me think of a lunatic! I think his plan his rubbish and his analysis stupid... I believe it is just the plain old law of supply and demand applied to 100oz silver bars. Most retail investors do not have the funds and account to take delivery of a futures contract at COMEX or LBMA (which Hommel does not mention at all although I believe this is a very large trading place for Silver). Therefore they are mostly stuck with buying 100oz bars (or under). Because of the Credit crunch and resulting financial crisis, people (ie retail "investors") are panicking and taking their money out of banks and some are putting them into PM, including silver. Because this is done on a large scale, this creates a huge demand for this form of silver to which the supply side, being inelastic, can not reply, creating a shortage of 100oz bars. As for any supply/demand imbalance, price goes up. This translates in a much higher premium to spot because the spot market has a MUCH larger volume which makes it able to absorb increased demand in an easier way and its participants trade all year round (ie no tidal wave of new participants like I anticipate there is in the retail market). This means that the real Silver market (Spot) does not suffer from the same imbalance. Actually I think his plan is not so rubbish. He has just spotted a supply/demand imbalance and will set up a venture to address and profit from it. However how long is this extremely increased demand going to last? One can assume long enough with the USD crisis. But by "flooding" the market the imbalance will be reduced and the premium (and hence potential profit) would be reduced. Assuming there are large naked short positions in the futures market (and that is definitely not sure - see post http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=64492) and that the retail demand represents a large enough proportion of the physical silver market this could create a short squeeze driving the price up. But then again there are limits on amounts of physical delivery you can take from COMEX (implemented post Hunter Bros cornering attempt)
  12. lardoon

    GOLD

    Here is David Morgan's take on Futures position reports: I also recommend a read of Fekete's articles where he dismisses Ted Butler's claims of naked shorting by the "big 4". Not sure if true but that makes for a balanced view... http://oikonomikablog.wordpress.com/2008/0...naked-bogeyman/ http://www.kitco.com/ind/fekete/sep252007.html http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/f.../2004/0503.html
  13. lardoon

    GOLD

    This might not be... because they have other positions which are not reported, so you cant assume their overall net position
  14. lardoon

    GOLD

    where do you see it going now? Its breaking out of the BB20 on the downside on the 1hr chart and broke the MM20 on the daily chart... sorry I am crap at screenshots..
  15. lardoon

    GOLD

    As contradictory as it may seem I think this bill will be beneficial to the dollar in the short-term as it makes the US financial system "appear" safer (ie more backing from the govt) on top of the deflationary bust which will make the senior world currency (dollar) appreciate. Not sure what the impact this will have on gold... I think this bill wil remove some short-term fear from the market
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