uff, so many cases, and all so well counted, can really put in doubt your own ideas.
i don't know.
there are 2 things that warn me about Pretcher.
1. His top was 10000 (or was it 10500? don't remember exactly) on the DOW. The DOW went to 11200 , thats at least 700 points of difference from what Pretcher said and that is not to ignore. Recall, NOT to ignore.
2. I heard him recently on TV and he sayd he has lots of years on the market place and "he knew" that the markets are going to crash. I know he is a veeeery good in what he does, but i see him too confident.
So i think right now everybody knows we are in a bear market, and that makes us (bears) the biggest crowd. If this is true, markets will be hard to break quickly, so a yearly trading range will kill enough weak bears before real profits come in.
Now, since i am very devoted follower of my channels, my channel said that in december we got over the posibility of next crash, and at this time crashing is less probable. (1 point in favor of a trading range, i.e long term correction)
Another technical detail is that you don't just break above 9500 or 10000 on the DOW and crash again, that was a strong support level on the yearly basis. I don't know what is Pretcher publishing right now on EWI, i am not a subscriber, but he must check this detail, it is not something to ignore. This is why I am more inclined to think that we are going to hold above 8450 on the DOW this year. You know how it happens, for example, the DOW goes to 8450, bears will say "this is it! short more!" and after that you have about 2 weeks of flat trading, then markets rebound and bears have the uptrend go to where they shorted for the first time and they end up closing the first position and have a losing one they sold at the bottom. This is how (i think) the market will shake out many weak bears, or even some professionals.
So my strategy right now is to trade the dailies within the weeklies (trade short term within medium term). And be quick in exiting shorts when markets are not moving. Corrections are very difficult to trade, so, to make money it is better to lower the position size, but extend the stoploss. This way you aren't going to be stopped out much and make some money. Or, if you don't want to miss the crash (the real impuslive wave Pretcher predicts, when you have week after week, month after month of strong downside), you have to put the short as it is right now (considering that the absolute possible top on the DOW is at around 11800), and wait 4 years. In 4 years we certainly will have these markets crashed.
This is what i think.