GatheringStorm

Martin Armstrong bullish on gold! "Gold Upside Take off only Months Away" http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/11/14_Martin_Armstrong_-_Gold_Upside_Take_Off_Only_Months_Away.html

Is this something I should worry about as a holder of physical PMs and Gold stocks? Is precious metals trading for retail investors about to be illegal in the US? or is it just a hoax? Would appreciate comments. Apologies if posted before by others. http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/4760#comment-4760

One of these "experts" who has sold out of gold was from the Jupiter Absolute Return Fund whose year to date performance is -1.76%. Whereas £gold is up circa 17% ytd. Looks like he sold the one bit of his portfolio he shoulda kept.

They're with 4 different providers for (probably illusory) additional safety. However, I find Fidelity the best. The easiest and most robust trading platform over several years and the quickest execution of the buys. Link below. https://www.fidelity.co.uk/investor/default-direct.page

Gold price forecasters are a dime a dozen. In truth, none of them have a clue. I would like to see Bill Bonner's supporting calculations. Or perhaps he's using that most useless of all indicators, his gut feeling. Unless you're leveraged this routine pullback is a non event imho. I'm sorry to hear you have no job. The only way to make money in gold so far has been to refuse to puke up when everyone else is - but that would be so much harder to do when you need a war chest to survive on.

Why would you be spooked at the prospect of a fabulous buying opportunity? Get the truck serviced!

My ISAs are my core long term holding of gold stocks and because of that would never hold juniors within them as the volatility would expend too much of my emotional capital. They are deliberately non trading ISAs to keep me from being shaken out by the frequent manipulation. I hold only Investec Global Gold and Blackrock Gold and General inside the ISAs. It's been tough during some of the drawdowns, especially in 2008 but the 2005 ISA is at circa £25k currently. I wouldn't dream of doing what you're doing and holding just two LSE listed juniors. Too hard on the nerves! What's wrong with ZJG.to or GDXJ? They're the ones that will mop up the mania if it ever happens!

I have 6 ISAs stuffed with gold stocks (5 in profit) and I hope you're right but I genuinely doubt that TA can forecast the future with such certainty - especially as the HUI continually disappoints. I'm surprised at how little gold stock talk there is on this board - must still be very early days!

Buying Brittannias and Sovereigns doesn't avoid cgt in itself. You have to sell at a (nominal) profit for any avoidance of cgt to take place. I still doubt that "large numbers" of Brits are buying bullion of any sort. Will there be a cgt allowance? Or will everyone selling anything for a profit be liable?

"a few years ago..." £500 was about 18 months ago actually

I'm in this position as well. Oct. 2008 is vivid in my memory. It would be so slick to duck the next downleg in the p.m. stocks and load up when the blood is flowing in the streets again. However, when the time comes there's bound to be some story floating around that makes you think the p.m. stocks won't bounce in the same way. I've compromised so far and sold my frothier holdings such as Osisko which are in the RSI (over 70) danger zone but am hanging on to stuff like Wesdome and Claude which have also been good to me.

Absolutely! - but we know what to do this time don't we? Buy the **** out of it. I keep looking at what gold stocks did in October 2008. Multi multi baggers there for the taking. Won't be had the same way twice.

If that were a stock or an index I would say the base being formed on the right hand side is a thing of beauty. However this is a ratio. I'm never too sure whether TA works on ratios?

I think physical buyers are the strongest hands of all. Unlike many paper traders, physical holders know exactly why they are in this market, understand the fundamentals and have no trouble riding out the volatility. As for the man/woman on the street, jewellery holder, these people tend not to listen to the media that usually broadcast the the misinformation such as the BBC, CNN etc. so cannot be "scared out" but they can of course be seduced by the daytime TV "turn your old gold bling into cash" ads. I think gold stocks are where it's at now. Sentiment is crap and the early speculators are getting battle weary but I think reinforcements are close at hand!!!

This tells us that we're early to the party. As long as the amateurs continue to sell to the pros, then personally, I'm confident the bull market in gold is alive and well.

In a similar vein, has anyone noticed how few 1 oz gold coins there are on ebay. Back in 2005 when I started buying there were typically over 100 available from UK sellers at any one time. Now it's down to about 15 or so. They were around £245/£250 back in 2005. In case anyone's worried about the volatility of paper gold they can observe that the ebay price is much steadier and isn't prone to sudden take downs like paper gold.

http://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do You can get a 20 year silver in yen chart here

I concur with this. Having missed the huge tech stock bubble and the housing bubble, missing a third easy money opportunity would be shear carelessness on my part. As far as I can tell, precious metals and maybe commodities are presenting that chance. Unlike many on here and HPC I don't see the point of arguing why gold is overpriced. I think "trade what you see" is very good advice. If it's going up then I ought to be in it.

Excuuuuuuuse me - I was buying Krugers off ebay for around £250 each in 2005 - look at 'em now! As for manipulation I'm not convinced - how come the price goes up every year? If that's manipulation then more please!

Yeah, with help from Stock and Aitken.

Patently not true. Gold and the broad markets rose together 2003 - 2008. I think that proves that gold's price action cannot be summed up as simplistically as that.

You'd get flamed for posting that over on HPC. I can never work out why some people seem to loathe gold so much. That's why I'm convinced this bull market has barely started. They'll start to get it when we're thinking of selling.

If you got a minute to spare, pull up a chart of Pinetree Capital pnp.to (up 147% on the last weeks trading!!!) Pinetree is a basket of junior miners as I understand it. I hope this sort of performance comes to my portfolio soon!

the CDNX has looked very perky these last four trading days but it could be that the manipulators are on their hols.! It looks like the HUI/CDNX are capable of decoupling from a sideways DJIA but I still doubt whether they could shrug off another broad market sell off. I wish I'd had the fortitude to buy the HUI when it was below 160 recently! On a historical chart, trades look like no brainers, the TA is screaming out at you but move over to the right hand edge and all of a sudden, nothing is quite so obvious!

I notice that Krugerrands are now getting bids over £720.00 now on eBay. I've been a bug since 2005 (thanks to Doc Bubb as it happens) but surely "little guy's" gold is getting a bit overbought now? It seems only yesterday I was buying Krugs for £245.00. I'm surprised these prices aren't liberating more dusty old bullion coins from "deep storage" and onto the market. I only wish this kind of mania would hit the gold stocks!