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About mattyboy

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  1. mattyboy


    That's exactly my point. Gold is down in AUD, but the rise in USD is also causing the Aussie miners to rise in Australian dollars. It doesn't really make sense since their profits are not really going up in AUD. I am based in Aus and although my physical gold is down from its highs, the shares are doing very well recently - some have 5 bagged off their lows, althoug unfortunately for many that just brings them back to what I paid for them in 07/08
  2. mattyboy


    what is interesting tho - and this may have been discussed on the gold stocks threads - is that my (mostly Australian) gold stocks seem far more responsive to the USD price of gold than in AUD. At the moment there is effectively a double effect of rising prices of these stocks in AUD whilst the currency itself is strengthening against the USD and GBP. It doesn't really make a lot of sense to me.
  3. mattyboy


    you are member 1622 - woah! Let's go!
  4. mattyboy


    nice dow/gold chart from today's daily reckoning email - see here http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/ if you don't subscribe a ratio of 1 really did seem improbable to me not so long ago, but I don't know now
  5. Jim's gone a bit apocalyptic this weekend - does anyone know whats going on? and so on
  6. mattyboy


    Dr Bubb - I am inclined to agree with you re: the altogether too great a consensus emerging in the MSM on the predicted increase in the gold price - here is another example in the Telegraph today: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets...price-jump.html what to do? Also note that Goldman sachs have followed UBS and upped their '09 average price prediction for gold to $1000 from $700 - doing the opposite of what Goldman say is usually the go! Of course on the forex markets just as soon as the press all decided the AUD would break parity with USD (at 98c) it promptly dropped to 60 odd, same story GBP/EUR. Still - I am not selling my gold. Maybe this really is where it goes mainstream. matt
  7. mattyboy


    Nothing here we all haven't read already, but it is always nice to see these articles popping up in the MSM - feels to me as if there has been a bit of an upsurge of late. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123284319920613125.html
  8. mattyboy


    Zen out man - take break. Don't try and trade any of this. That's what I and most on here (I assume) are doing. I know its hard not to look, but I am much less troubled now by these big moves than I was. So long as you know you are not trading, whatever happens to the price (for now), there's no need to worry
  9. yeah excepth those same calls are now trading for 0.33 which is a near 10 fold increase on the price I quoted in that earlier post. Price went up again last night despite the oil price, so the extreme volatility is pushing up the price. I have an account at optionsXpress which is not yet fully activated, so have not traded options although I do have experience in them at work. I may wait for things to settle down a bit before taking the plunge, I think there'll be a better price at some point. I do think if you genuinely believe in peak oil and USD collapse then it is a no brainer, even just a cheeky couple of grand as a punt.
  10. mattyboy


    roger that
  11. I am going to go ahead with my far out of the money call options trade soon I think - although the prices haven't come in much yet I guess it is vol not moneyness that is holding them up there. I don't see the USD lasting 2 years and any weakness will be expressed in oil.
  12. 250 calls for Dec10 went from $20 to $280 overnight (thats the full cost for the 1000 barrels) - so would have been a good buy even at the $40 they were earlier.. and my optionsXpress a/c I am in the process of opening for precisely this trade isn't active yet! arrgh!
  13. mattyboy


    I don't want to ge tinto any sort of sh!t fight here, but I just fail to see how TA of any sort can be applied to the markets (and not just the PM markets) at the moment. OK maybe a bit of resitance/profit taking at key psychological levels but I would be interested in just how many of the charting calls have been anywhere near the mark (better than chance?) . I have bought and I am holding - doing OK in my current local currency (Aussie). I think things are just starting to get interesting.
  14. Guys - this has probably been discussed somewhere on here before, but if you believe in a) peak oil and USD decline then an obvious trade now has to be long dated, far out of the money call options. Dec10 calls on Nymex look good for a low risk punt - something really crazy like $250 calls settled yesterday at $40 - that's $40 for the right to buy 1000 barrels of oil for $250 anytime between now and dec10 (correct me if I am wrong but I believe these are US style options). $780 will get you the $150 calls. This seems like a crazy bargain to me, a few of these buy-and-forget for a while, if USD takes the tumble we think it will and oil bounces back..
  15. and this? pretty similar shape.. was everything in a bubble?