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ziknik

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Everything posted by ziknik

  1. I managed to walk away with a healthy chunk of the FTSE long I got burned badly on the oil as it smacked my stoploss before plummeting
  2. I think you’re right about BP, I’m averaging in on the way down to saving me from trying to pick the bottom and missing out as I so often do. Last time BP were 440, I was waiting for 420. BP hit 620 while I was sat waiting…. Not that I am interested in the capital gains at this stage. There’s a cut off date for taking part in the NG rights issue…. Hang on….. …. EDIT: I can’t find it. I will have to check my email when I get home.
  3. I bought Vodafone, Morrissons & some more BP at the back end of last week
  4. I’m going to buy Vodafone and WM Morisson when I can get away from my desk. I looked at BT as an alternative to Vod, but was put off by their poor dividend cover and losses. I looked at Tesco as an alternative to Morisson… Tesco looked OK too but I thought Morisson has been disproportionately pounded these last few weeks in comparison. Therefore, Morisson has greater upside for capital gains. I’m going for a V.small position on Morisson and a small position on Vod. I’m keeping plenty of powder dry as there’s a decent chance these shares will keep falling.
  5. EeeeKKK, I've just lost 100% of the money. Not a good start. Thankfully I've still got 14 years and 11 months to make up the loss. Next month I might invest with a little less leverage to save myself from losing everything again.
  6. Got the answer - Yes, I can take up the shares. http://www.h-l.co.uk/__data/assets/pdf_fil...IPP-TCs-kfs.pdf
  7. National Grid rights issue. I've got my shares in a SIPP - will I be offered the new shares? http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/national-...d17b56c338.html LONDON (Reuters) - National Grid (LSE: NG.L - news) said it was raising 3.2 billion pounds in a rights issue to fund a sharp increase in investment as Britain looks to meet tough environmental targets and keep the lights on. The gas and electricity transmission network operator said on Thursday it would issue 990 million shares in a 2-for-5 rights issue at 335 pence, a 46 percent discount to Wednesday's close. The news had knocked shares in the group down 6.7 percent to 578.5 pence by 8:16 a.m., making National Grid the top blue-chip faller. ...
  8. I’m starting to feel like the only bull in the village on this site… And I’m not a housing bull. This is my view. ** Houses are over priced in the UK ** Real prices are very likely to fall ** Real prices could continue to increase for 2 – 5 years before the next big crash. (They could also crash tomorrow) ** Nominal prices will not fall lower than the 2009 bottom. ** At this point in time it benefits me if house prices fall (real and nominal) as I am planning to buy a bigger more expensive house as soon as I can afford it.
  9. ziknik

    UK House prices: News & Views

    ^^^ Further reading http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....t=0&p=87810
  10. ziknik

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Gordon didn’t remove mortgage interest from the inflation target… they were never included in the first place. Historically, the BofE/Treasury used RPIx (that’s RPI excluding mortgages) Including mortgage interest in price inflation target causes a positive feedback loop. Interest rates increase => mortgage prices increase => increase in RPI => interest rate increase. The same is true the other way round Interest rates decrease => mortgage prices decrease => decrease in RPI => interest rate decrease. Gordon replaced the RPIx target with CPI…. And TBH, I don’t know if this is as big an issue as people make out. As for holding down rates – globalisation held down rates more than Gordon could have. It was the cheap goods from China (etc) that held down our C/RPI EDIT: there’s a lot more to this that I haven’t really touched upon for simplicity. I’m sure someone will fill in some of the missing bits later.
  11. That’s a really good idea too. I’ve had a quick look on Google and it seems LIBOR trackers are not very common. I’ll have a more detailed look when I have more time. I’m currently on the hook to Nationwide if I settle my mortgage early so I’m not sure I can afford to change for a few months
  12. Wow http://www.krbs.com/25yrfix75.aspx It's portable to a future mansion too! 75% LTV..... I'm thinking about selling my gold and stumping up a 3% ERC to Nationwide
  13. All these mortgage offers aren’t available to me as I don’t want to sell any gold to pay down a 25% deposit. [not sure which smile to use] If house prices increase, I will get my 25% equity when I come to re-mortgage however, this will mean my mansion will cost more than £1m. Inflation giveth and inflation taketh I’m convinced there is only one outcome for the UK. That outcome is “TOAST”. However a lot can happen between ‘Today’ and “TOAST” and I’m hoping to make the best of it. I don’t remember seeing any specific data on investors selling longer dated gilts and purchasing shorter ones… However, I’m not sure that this can be seen as a specific risk. The BofE were over paying for the mid ranged Gilts, it would have been rude not to sell them. In fact, the BofE cornered the market to the extent that it was necessary to lease Gilts out again to ease supply shortages. I would have been tempted to sell my Gilts too (if I had any) when there was a big buyer in the market prepared to overpay. It’s obviously better to have long term foreign confidence in your country, especially as we are quite reliant on foreign investors to buy & hold our debt. But I don’t think it is particularly worrying that an investor chooses to hold 2014 over 2035+. It could be seen as a good sign that the investors chose to buy more Gilts at all. It would be interesting to know if foreign investors are returning to buy the mid range Gilts now that the BofE is not openly buying them up. What are your thoughts?
  14. Hello! It sounds like we’ve got similar plans at high level – Except we’ve bought at different times. I was looking at the FD mortgage myself and I would have taken it if I had bought a house at the time. Sadly, FD want a huge deposit at the moment and I am not prepared to sell my gold. I wonder if we will all end up on the same mortgage in a few years time.
  15. The table below displays my reasons for believing we are currently safe from a bond market interest rate spike. You will notice ** Our Maturing Debt is the 4th lowest ** Our Gross Financing Needs are the 5th lowest ** Our Gross Debt is the 5th lowest ** Our Average Maturity is the highest It’s our Deficit that is high; the second highest on the list. However, we’ve just elected the slasher government and I expect this deficit to fall There are many other countries in worse shape than us. These countries will be suffering the Bond market before us. http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/edmun...tern-world-imf/ http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fm/2010/fm1001.pdf
  16. We've got to keep using it BUT it's going to need heavy maintenace now that the design life of the components has expired (excepting over design) Also, anyone who owns it has to pay for it to be decommissioned and demolished. There's no problem if Drax have spent the last 30 years saving up. SOmehow, I doubt Drax have saved up for the final stages of life. Do Drax have any other assets (bar the Drax station)? (my spell checker isn't working)
  17. What sort of property is it (if you don't mind me asking) Last time I looked, the ERC was [from memory] 3% in year 1 2% in year 2 1% in Year 3 0% in year 4 3% in year 5 2% in year 6 ... ... ... ...
  18. Hasn't the Drax station gone past it's design life already?
  19. I'll be keeping my eye on them over the next few years. 15 years is a long time and I am currently locking in to to a BofE tracker
  20. ziknik

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Everyones' input is most welcome I agree with what you have written. Things will be tough for many people..... however, this could lead to interest rates being held low and anyone with a disposable incomes may sail through the though years. In any case, you have to live somewhere and I hope everyone is sufficiently insulated from the potential of rent increases EDIT: It's also worth remembering that prices are actually increasing at present.
  21. ziknik

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Abandoning HIPS may add £500-800 of searches on to the 'up front money' needed to purchase a house. This could move the demand curve back by a few months too.
  22. ziknik

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Do you see wages being suppressed for 25 years? It's important to remember that 'inflating away the debt' can happen at any point in the life of the debt. It doesn't have to happen tomorrow or next week or next year.
  23. It's certainly worth keeping an eye on the long term fixed interest mortgages. I'm not able to consider these for myself as they all have fairly heavy early repayment charges and no ability to port over to a mansion (or any other house) in a few years time
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