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About Yogi

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  1. "Less demand, as people live together, to save money" This is an important point, rarely made, and never grasped by the VIs. The BTL speculators have it in their heads that if prices drop and the market stagnates, rental demand must rise (and hence rents with it). There is of course no guarantee of this - especially in recessionary times (or simply fear of hard times). Many people have a large degree of flexibility over how much property they "consume" - how many to share with, whether to live with parents, get a lodger etc. I suspect that aggregate demand for property (renting+buying) is much more volatile than many believe - even just due to sentiment shifts. When you add in the direct effects of an increase in unemployment and a small army of East Europeans potentially heading home due to the plummeting pound and stupid cost of living, and there could be a massive shift. Bears will enjoy this from Prime Location... http://media.primelocation.com/content/pri...ndex_200712.pdf Indicates supply of housing for sale and rent both increasing, and prices and rents falling. This includes London and prime South East. Look at the massive rise in stock levels - more price falls surely on the way. You hear alot of nonsense from many bulls about "flight to quality", "London / my area will be immune", "my rents are rising" etc etc. This report clearly pisses all over their lame wishful thinking with a few hard facts about where the market is really going. When we get the usual Spring flood of properties onto the market, things should get really interesting.
  2. I have a fairly chunky amount invested in Enervest. Have purchased in 3 stages over the last 15 months, at a good avg price not too far above where it's currently at. The yield is fantastic, and good scope for moderate capital appreciation in the short-med term. I am tempted to put a further big chunk of my STR fund into this or some other energy trusts, because most of it is still in a GPB savings a/c and with the direction of the £ and interest rates, obviously this is not proving lucrative. (Although while house prices are going in the right direction, my cash position is working overall, and with near-zero risk - perhaps best not to get too clever).
  3. Yogi


    I'm long Silver. Mid-to-long term trade. Willing it to go down so I can load up more at lower risk (which means it probably won't). I actually got in when it last plunged down to $11, but lost my nerve too early and took profits at $13-$14. Now back in from $14.50, and looking to try more of a "hold and accumulate on dips" approach, at least until we get the next major leg up to $20. What are everyones' thoughts on the worst-case downside? It sprang back so powerfully off $11 last time, and gold has come so much further since, that I'm thinking $12ish, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.
  4. Everything getting whacked today - LAM down 9%... I'm watching like a hawk but not buying just yet!
  5. My thinking is pretty simplistic on this. I thought a decent mix would be a blue-chip miner, a smallish but fairly well established uranium-specific producer/explorer, and a direct play on the commodity price itself. I do intend to do some more research on UUU and some others, but for me it's just a case of lucky dip with this sort of investment, unless you have the time and inclination to do some serious in-depth research into the industry and individual miners. As I only want to invest a relatively small amount at this stage, I don't! I know this isn't a great approach, but time is the limiting factor. If there are any uranium experts out there who can give a concise guide on how to distinguish a good miner from an overvalued dog then please educate me, but I suspect it's not simple.
  6. Hi All, I completely missed the BIG move, but at least I didn't buy in at the top! Anyway, now seems like a pretty good time to take a position, accepting the possibility of further short term volatility (if gold and oil pull back to $730 / $75 ish then I could imagine uranium re-testing $75-$80. But for now it looks like things are on the up again and I don't want to get left behind. In light of Swervin' Mervyn's latest comments I've decided my £ cash holdings are too high so need to diversify and expand the non-cash portion of my STR fund a bit more. So... I'm looking to put together a mini portfolio of 3 or 4 stocks to hold for the med-long term, nothing ultra speculative, although I'm only looking at circa 2% of my net worth for this so happy with a bit of risk. Currently thinking of a mix of Cameco, Laramide, and Uranium Participation Corp. What do y'all think? I would consider putting a 4th more risky play in there if anyone has any ideas I can research?
  7. Yogi


    Interesting charts, Frizzers! With the £ nearly up to $2.01, silver spot is now down to only £6.12! That's the same as two pints of beer! What a bargain. I'm thinking of making my first physical purchase - currently favouring importing 100 1oz Maples from the US or Canada, as even after postage and VAT this still seems to be the cheapest way. Am I missing something? Is there any other import duty to pay other than the VAT? Is it also correct that NO silver bullion coins escape the dreaded VAT on import - I thought I had read that circulated legal tender coins were exempt, but I may have misunderstood.
  8. It's a little awkward as my GF needs to get the train to work (Oxford). The village properties are much nicer and better value, but practicalities might force us to stick to the town (Cherwell Heights / New Grimsbury). Would still be interested to hear any recommendations though - we haven't ruled anything out yet. The good value places are getting snapped up quickly, but others seem to be languishing on the market. Loads of 2-bed "executive apts" but needless to say we don't want one of them! It's as if you can tell which are the old landlords and which are the johnny-come-lately struggling-to-cover-the-mortgage types, based on the type of property and the rent they're asking. Purely speculation, but it does seem that some are clearly better value and I'm guessing this is why.
  9. My fingers are crossed and touching wood... my house sale should hopefully complete in around 3 weeks' time. Since around the time the sale was agreed, the market seems to have noticably slowed around here. 3 months ago places were selling within a couple of weeks - now stuff is lingering and the number of properties on the market drifting upwards. I guess its too soon to tell for sure if I've caught the exact top of the market by a useful combination of luck and judgement, but lets just say I'm not regretting the decision at the moment! I have started tracking the market in Banbury (where I'm moving to rent, and may potentially buy - eventually). I'm looking at Rightmove total number of properties on sale / properties added in last 7 days, and number of price reductions on propertysnake.co.uk. I'm hoping over the next few weeks and months that this will confirm that a slowdown is indeed taking place (at the very least). I don't have any intention of rushing back in to buy at the first hint of price reductions - it's more that I can then comfortably keep most of my STR fund in risk-free savings if I'm satisfied that the housing market is moving in the right direction. You may like to check out the house price forum on the FT website for hilarious outbursts of illogical denial from some prize numpty property permabulls. The FT should really archive that forum and publish it in due course as prime evidence of the psychology of speculative bubbles!
  10. I am close to escaping, and yes - I'm beginning to feel like it will be just in time. (Read more on my selling progress here... http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....mp;#entry17625) I'm getting very tempted to call summer 2007 as the likely top in UK prices (I have NOT called a top yet, despite being a long-term bear) but want to see the BoE come good on the FX market's expectations of at least 2 more 0.25% rises first. Then I really think it's game over. Sterling will eventually start to fall, keeping inflation high and rates up, even as the market stalls and sentiment turns.
  11. Hi, I went through this same idea / research / thought process a few months ago, and dipped my toe in with Enervest Diversified ... http://www.stockhouse.ca/comp_info.asp?sym...&table=list . This isn't a pure oil / gas play, but has a good level of exposure, and a very stable and high dividend. If we get another dip, I may grab some Arc Energy (http://www.stockhouse.ca/comp_info.asp?view=&Displaycurrency=&symbol=AET.UN&table=list) as well, which is a purer play. I bought these with TD Waterhouse - opened an account with them for that specific reason. They do seem hard to get hold of through most brokers. One thing to watch is the currency risk (I've not made much on Enervest despite getting in at 5.86, cos of relative strength of sterling since then) but I'd say this is in your favour if anything, at the moment. Canadian dollar has had a bit of a hammering, perhaps unfairly considering the fundamentals, and could be due a resurgence. BP is the simpler option of course... look for the BP thread.
  12. Copied from main monthly comments thread: GOLD: Been looking at some MA's on the long term daily charts. 100 has crossed under the 200 for the 1st time in 18 months (pretty bearish I'd say). But the 50 is looking lively and is poised to blast back up above the 200 very shortly (nicely bullish). So... looks like it's crunch time. I'm staying on the sidelines for the moment. Have a hunch that the critical 300DMA is gonna be tested again. This has held but been bounced off many times throughout the bull market. If we come down and bounce off it at around $600 then I'm in - otherwise risk / reward looks a little shaky for now. (Still got my long term fund holdings of MLG&G though).
  13. Yogi

    Gold: the Bull's thread

    Gold priced in £ hasn't risen all month, and is only up 12% ish over the last 12 months. Well worth watching the £ vs $ price charts on Kitco if you're not spreadbetting (or whatever) directly on the dollar price. I am wondering - is the £ really deserving of all this strength? Our economy is similar to that of the US and M4 is growing at 14% YoY. So does the £ not face the same fate as the dollar? If so, when are the forex markets going to start treating it with the contempt it deserves?!
  14. Lovely jubbly. Lets have the last hurrah of this absurd bubble. Greatest fools... come on down! Yogi's place is going on the market in 5 months - not too long to wait, although it could still burst before then if sentiment turns on a dime. Fingers crossed...
  15. Yogi


    Thanks for the replies. In terms of the unallocated accounts, I'd consider these as and when I have more to spend (ie. STR fund) but for the moment I just fancy buying a steady 10 - 100 oz of physical every month. To a) average out the volatility and b ) enjoy the feelgood factor of shiny lumps of metal in my hands Regarding tax, things are getting clearer, but just to confirm... - Anything new (coins, bars, whatever) = VAT due, period. - "Second-hand" bought in UK = VAT due only on any dealer margin - Bullion bars (new or old) bought in from abroad = VAT due This is where I'm still not sure ... - "Second-hand coins" from abroad eg. Maples, junk (90%) old US coins etc ... ??? This latter category seems to be the best value (100+ "Any Year" Maples from thesilverxchange.com seem well priced, though shipping is rather steep). So, I would like to know whether I should (at least in theory!) be paying VAT on these, or whether I can back up the truck without worrying.