romans holiday

Greeting all, I am back..... as if waking from a long slumber, I took one look at the long term log chart, rubbed my eyes, and bought heavily. I arrived late to the party. I bought heavily at 10,000 and 11,000 at the end of December, beginning of this month, when most where nervous at the 'toppy' levels. Already we are pushing 17,000. Dr Bubb, it seems you have fundamental objections to this bull run?? People interrogate me about the fundamentals, I shrug my head, and state the market is my friend... for now. PS, I seem unable to post a URL.

Being very overweight in bullion, I'm now looking to raise a sizeable dollar position this year. I do not really see the dollar as a hedge against bullion, or necessarily inversely correlated, but more as a currency that can be owned in its own right alongside gold and silver. My strategy, in a macro-deflation, will be to stay liquid in the strongest currencies; gold, silver and dollars. The current environment has been volatile and looks to remain so for some time to come. I will look to take advantage of this volatility by low frequency currency trading. I have chosen dollar/ silver to trade as they are a "contrary" pair and move against each other well. One is the reserve currency and represents safety, the other a proxy for commodities and represents risk. As the market swings between safety and risk this should be reflected well in these currencies. I have also chosen this pair as I will feel comfortable agressively trading them [though infrequently trading on the big macro moves] as I see both currencies performing well in the long term aggregate; they are both currencies you would do well to own in an asset/credit/debt deflation. I'll use BV [no gearing] to trade. They charge 0.8% on transactions which I consider reasonable. The storage costs of silver is also very reasonable... but then I imagine I'll spend half the time in US dollars as I will be very much a dollar bull on BV [while a gold bull on GM]. There is a possibility that the dollar and silver might both track sideways together... though in a very volatile channel. It is this channel I will be looking to trade. Silver I see as more speculative than gold and may look to take profits by purchasing further gold. A couple of trading points have stuck with me from the Jesse Livermore book; to stake a position and sit on it for a good while.... and to make sure you stake a large position when you do so.

Looks precipitous for silver. Shaping up good for a trade

Yes, finally. Looking at the chart the previous level/ band held for around a year from 2012 to 2013. With the breakdown from that time, it has once again held for a year. If this pattern is anything to go by, that would put silver around $14 come another breakdown. Still can't bring myself to short it. Though would think of buying, for a trade, if it went down to those levels.

TI, I still have a small amount of gold, and I doubt the price will crash. You have to wonder whether inflationary pressures will start to build at some stage. RB, Yep, wouldn't surprise me to see another move down in silver. Will consider buying on a good-sized dip, and sell on the inevitable bounce back up. Instrument of choice still being AGQ.... and will make sure not to sit in it too long this time!

Still waiting for a decent spike down in silver. Could well see it if silver dips below 19. It's gone nowhere in a year, perhaps it will strengthen later this year.

Silver still looking like it wants to go lower.

Yes! I think it pays to stay on the side lines here until some breakout of this bottoming pattern.... $1400 gold at the end of this year, or next, perhaps?? Perhaps 1200ish will be a bit of a base for gold in the meantime; The 2008 correction was near 30% - 1000 down to 700. This correction, though more prolonged looks of similar magnitude - 1800 down to 1200.

Timber?

Interesting spot for gold as it backed away from 1400. Will it bounce at round this 1300 mark and prove the bottom in, or head lower and further correct.

OK, so New Zealand, my home country, is the first in the developed world to started hiking the cash rate. Does this signal the turn of the cycle? Gold up to 1370... pushing 1400.

Hmmm... tempted for a quick short here.

Gold through 1400 would mark the end of the mega correction for me. Price still looks solid on the long term log chart.

"The key long term trend is in play" Hmmm, let me guess... something like 20% appreciation year on year?

Still can't quite bring myself to short it.

Indeed! I'd like to see another washout.... say silver to 16 odd before buying for the bounce... see at say 20. With these doubled instruments, a trade like that would see a near 100% return.

Silver looking like it wants to roll over and do a dive. Dry powder ready in wait. The previous waterfall fell from 30 to 20, so that means silver could here go from 20 to 14.

And I could see another dip in silver yet.... Who knows. If there is a rally here, I don't mind siting on the side lines for a bit. If it turns into a longer up trend, then can buy. So all things considered, a good time to sit on the side lines for now.

Looking bottom. Will look at buying AGQ [short term!]: 1] On a decent dip down here. 2] Or at a later date if/ when an uptrend establishes itself. No rush.

Dear Santa, One more decent spike down for Xmas please.

Yes, I think the trick is to jump in and out doubly quick. Sorry, have been writing poetry lately.... helps to distract the mind.

Looks like new lows are beckoning. AGQ already down to 15.40. Another decent washout and I'll be tempted to pile in for a bounce. So say it doesn't come, and the price falls even further after buying. You'd have to think a bounce would come eventually and rescue your position.

Looks like another wash out is coming! Will you buy for the inevitable bounce?

A decent dip in silver down to 17 odd would see AGQ in the low teens, if not 10. Am looking to buy around there and sell on the bounce.

Perhaps 17.50 on the cards?