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romans holiday

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Everything posted by romans holiday

  1. romans holiday

    SILVER

    Every cloud has a silver lining. The ratio was due to bounce back. Silver remained surprisingly resilient against gold for quite some time, and if it goes still lower will swap my meagre holding of gold to silver.... that would be me pretty much 'all in' silver.
  2. romans holiday

    GOLD

    Don't know about hoarding. See it more as a form of saving... postponing consumption until a more opportune time.
  3. romans holiday

    GOLD

    Wasn't long ago that investors were salivating over the prospect of 1650 gold. If you're talking about buy and hold then a decent sized time frame needs to be kept in mind. 20% gains year on year are nothing to be sniffed at.
  4. romans holiday

    GOLD

    Is that a linear chart?
  5. romans holiday

    GOLD

    Gold/ silver holding up pretty well even as the commodity currencies such as the Kiwi dollar come off.
  6. romans holiday

    GOLD

    Nah, just in the doldrums after a spike up. Nothing unexpected.
  7. romans holiday

    SILVER

    The correlation is no doubt due to them both moving contrary to the dollar. The 'risk on' trade will see both strengthen. But there are other factors that should see silver strengthen more in the aggregate, and then retain that strength. the Euro may just remain volatile and then weaken in the aggregate against the dollar [as the dollar strengthens due to deflation] and doubly weaken against silver. Taking gold as a more steady less volatile measure, the Euro/ Gold chart shows the price increases in sudden steps compared to the more steady rise of Dollar/ Gold. Wouldn't be surprised to see a repeat of this at some point where precious metal prices suddenly increase in the more peripheral currencies. Aussie/ Gold [silver] is also a good example of this.
  8. romans holiday

    SILVER

    Volatile silver looking like it's found its base here. A floor of 30 for silver and 1650 for gold for a bit will serve as a solid platform for the next leg up later in the year....though I think that leg up will be long and prolonged like the previous one after the previous collapse. Next spike to 100 odd? 2014?
  9. romans holiday

    GOLD

    A good base [and case] continuing to be built for gold.
  10. romans holiday

    SILVER

    Thanks for posting that. Yes, this is a high risk trade. The kind of trade I'm looking for is to sell in the short/ medium term. On the chart you've posted that would be similiar to the first half of the chart where it spikes to 400%. The important thing about the trade is to sell on the spike... and to have bought on the dip. Just sitting for a fixed term would be a bit senseless. The post above yours also thinks about hedging the Medium term of this instrument by using half of the AGQ position to sell and buy within the shorter term on smaller interim spikes/ dips. A hedge within a hedge so to speak.
  11. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    Thanks for posting that. Yes, this is a high risk trade. The kind of trade I'm looking for is to sell in the short/ medium term. On the chart you've posted that would be similiar to the first half of the chart where it spikes to 400%. The important thing about the trade is to sell on the spike... and to have bought on the dip. Just sitting for a fixed term would be a bit senseless. The post above yours also thinks about hedging the Medium term of this instrument by using half of the AGQ position to sell and buy within the shorter term on smaller interim spikes/ dips. A hedge within a hedge so to speak.
  12. romans holiday

    GOLD

  13. romans holiday

    GOLD

    The time to short gold was 1900 six months ago not now. I think it's fair to say that the fundamentals on gold are thoroughly confused. Why not then bracket the fundamentals and let the longer term trend on the chart speak for itself. Gold is nicely consolidated/ ing here. The corrections of '06 and '08 lasted near a year. It's only been six months or so into this correction. If this correction is like the others, we've probably seen the bottom of it.
  14. romans holiday

    PositiveDev's trading journey

    Ah, the finer things in life. Good taste in music.
  15. romans holiday

    GOLD

    No, my posts are directly contradicting what Dominic was saying, that gold is an 'investment'. Obviously you read other people's posts, but I do wonder if you consider the ideas put forward. Repeat: Gold is a form of liquidity not an investment. OK, you might disagree with that, but then that would be progress of sorts. At least then you'd show a grasp of the ideas and issues at stake.
  16. romans holiday

    GOLD

    Can you see how your previous post is confusing. For example: This is not what is normally meant by core buy and hold, which if anything one tries to increase. Agree? I think the confusion lies in your not thinking of your core gold in terms of liquidity, but rather in terms of investment. Hence you want to keep that investment at a certain percentage of your wealth. Someone who thinks of gold instead in terms of liquidity will 'sit on the sidelines' and watch asset prices depreciate relative to gold. They will not look to re-balance their 'portfolio' but stay with the trend as monetary value filters down into gold. Core gold [and note, gold not mining stocks etc] is also core in a monetary sense. Inflation is irrelevant when gold is primarily seen in terms of liquidity, as opposed to a commodity, inflation hedge, or investment. It's this idea that yourself and Dominic have failed to grasp. It's on the basis of this idea that the investor can 'invest' a good portion in gold, sit back, and relatively relax. Because he's identified a long term trend. Nor is this complacency as the good investor always hedges.
  17. romans holiday

    GOLD

    You still seem to be confusing B&H with trading. The B&H position is not about buying when prices are cheap and selling on a spike. That is trading. As mentioned the 'investor' can rationally rely on 20% appreciation year on year with B&H. The two activities should be clearly distinguished [Long Term B&H/ Short Term trading] in order for the one to hedge the other.
  18. romans holiday

    GOLD

    The 20% rise is in the aggregate/ trend. If you want to trade, you should look for the spike upwards which will often be greater than 20%. The spike to 1900 was an obvious example. Still, if you're also interested in building a core [buy and hold] besides trading it helps to have some understanding or explanation of why gold is trending upwards 20% year on year. Investors [or those with a liquidity preference... the non-investor] have a rational macro picture of why something appreciates or depreciates. It's good to see you finally getting a bit more vocal towards a buy and hold position/ building a core... though ironically after a purge of the 'buy and holders'. PS, You missed the point of the post. It wasn't about trading gold. It was about giving a rational explanation for the 'investor' as to why gold has risen at an average of 20% odd annually.
  19. romans holiday

    GOLD

    Well, I'm no purist/ gold bug, but looks like nothing much has been learnt in the past few years about gold. As long as gold is seen as an 'investment', people will remain confused about whether or not gold is in a 'bull market'. That confusion will also lead to a 'wall of worry' towards gold. There is a small glimmering clue about gold in Dominic's article where he mentions it rising consistently 20% odd year on year. The most coherent way to interpret this rise is in terms of appreciation. So instead of thinking of gold as an 'investment', think of it as the opposite; a form of liquidity/ a non-investment, which is steadily appreciating against assets/ investments. This view is also bolstered by the fact that liquidity strengthens in deflationary economies. Why can't people see the obvious? Because [conventional/ established] theory determines what we see.... and most people, being herdish, won't think for themselves.
  20. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    Yes, looks a good entry point. This instrument looks like a good one to trade in the shorter period. Thought about it myself [over and above - or below - the medium term] but personally have neither the time nor inclination for the shorter term trading, or day/ week trading. Still, may give it some thought.... and may shorter term trade a 1/3 of my medium term longs.Would then want to sell a bit on a silver spike and higher than the previous one. I guess that would be trading in the short/ medium term. It would also serve to hedge the heavy medium position.
  21. romans holiday

    SILVER

    Yes, looks a good entry point. This instrument looks like a good one to trade in the shorter period. Thought about it myself [over and above - or below - the medium term] but personally have neither the time nor inclination for the shorter term trading, or day/ week trading. Still, may give it some thought.... and may shorter term trade a 1/3 of my medium term longs.Would then want to sell a bit on a silver spike and higher than the previous one. I guess that would be trading in the short/ medium term. It would also serve to hedge the heavy medium position.
  22. romans holiday

    GOLD

    Yes, and not many gold bugs were predicting that. The idea was mining stocks would simply 'leverage' the rise in the gold price itself.
  23. romans holiday

    SILVER

    we'll see. This has been discussed on my trading thread.
  24. romans holiday

    SILVER

    Close enough to 50, so have bought with the last of my earmarked funds. I've now pretty much exposed to precious metals with all my liquid worth, with this trade balanced against core gold. Will be keen to reduce a lot of that exposure on the next silver spike. Target of 600 odd in two years or so.
  25. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    Close enough to 50, so have bought with the last of my earmarked funds. I've now pretty much exposed to precious metals with all my liquid worth, with this trade balanced against core gold. Will be keen to reduce a lot of that exposure on the next silver spike. Target of 600 odd in two years or so.
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