Jump to content

romans holiday

Members
  • Content Count

    8,549
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by romans holiday

  1. romans holiday

    GOLD

    Government [international conference] would first have to decide on the level for the reserve currency when setting up the standard [other currencies could then be pegged to that]. This would be the most difficult part, with lots of moving parts here; eg. what sort of credit instruments remain, what is the amount of money in existence, will there be fractional reserve etc. There would be some kind of division of existng money into the number of ounces in existence. Once the level was set, currency would be tied to it, regulated to the amount in whatever proportion. This would provide a potential for equilibrium in asset prices and trade. Of course, everything would first have to turn to custard.
  2. romans holiday

    GOLD

    The amount of gold doesn't really matter. Because the rate at which currencies are fixed to it [the price] is completely arbitrary. I doubt a gold standard would halt a grinding deflation in asset prices, but it would halt monetary chaos and economic implosion. What's important is the rate at which currencies are fixed to each-other. International trade can then be stabilized on stable currencies and exchange rates. The price of gold could be capped/ fixed where the market takes it over the next decade. At 20 odd % a year compounding that's quite a lot higher from here. I think government would step in before the 'manic phase'. Also, I don't see why governments wouldn't keep some form of fractional reserve even with a standard. If it all came to this, banks most probably will have become more regulated. Mind you, debt might have become a dirty word for a generation, which would see asset prices grind down. If the baby boomers finally panicked and started selling, there would be the property crash.
  3. romans holiday

    GOLD

    Actually, the argument for a recourse to gold is based primarily on instability at the international level. As I've argued earlier, gold is the strongest symbol of money which cuts across the various cultures of developed economies. I think 'something new' or novel will be rejected simply because the attempt at a purely scientific currency [Friedmanism] would have been seen to fail by then. With the failure of theory, it's likely that economists will also be discredited. Government, in that situation, will look pragmatically for something which can work and function relatively well in the face of increasing instability. The other thing with a proper gold standard, an international one, is the practical balancing mechanism it can provide for trade. Resorting to gold's balancing mechanism is an obvious choice for governments when you consider that it was the massive build up of trade imbalance which has endangered the global economy in the first place. Here's a good solid British empiricist on the subject: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_specie_flow_mechanism
  4. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    With AGQ close to a heavy buy order placed at 50, have bought it here with half the funds. Rest of funds still placed for 50. Bubb, if you read this can you move this thread back over to the Open Blogs section as do not post on this thread often and can therefore be difficult to find. Cheers.
  5. romans holiday

    SILVER

    The other thing is a reverse head and shoulders shaping up on silver, and in the context of the upward mega-trend. Most clearly seen on the log chart.
  6. romans holiday

    GOLD

    Yes, some kind of fixing would be involved. It would be the end of a free global market in currencies. The fixing of a currency is quite a delicate thing. If the currency is fixed at too high a rate it will only continue to deflate the economy. Besides Argentina this was the problem when Churchill decided to go back on gold after the war... he went back to the pre-war rate, radically appreciating the pound over night. But I don't see it playing out like this. The potential problem facing the major currencies today, and on a global stage, is not their depreciation but their appreciation against financial assets [even if real consumables simultaneously become more expensive]. A forseeable disaster for markets and economies is capital flight out of assets into currencies, and then further and increasingly out of currencies into gold; gold being the prime form of liquidity. In this situation government would be forced to step in and fix the currency to gold/ gold to currency. This may even see gold capped at where the market has taken it. If government didn't intervene, the free market could see economies implode with mass unemployment. One can be 'for' or 'against' a gold standard in the abstract. There probably is no realizable monetary ideal [arguably a good thing], but the practical strength of a gold standard lies in its ability to provide stability in a time of flux.
  7. romans holiday

    GOLD

    Yes and no. No, not if gold has [effectively] become the 'bedrock' of monetary value. Think of it having the highest/ strongest symbolic function [serving a practical function] in the imagination of the species... as opposed to being the 'only natural form of money'. Yes, but only in the sense that you can say currencies are appreciating or depreciating relative to it. Everything moves. Can't see paper currencies collapsing simply because they don't really consist of 'paper' but outstanding debt. With debt deflation, the 'shorts' on the currency effectively enter a period of 'covering', which sees it appreciate relative to assets. If paper did collapse, government would then have no choice but to somehow resort to gold as a monetary measure. But once again this only shows that gold is not 'being valued', but is that which does the valuing. Gold, and currencies then fixed to it, or some version of fractional reserve, would then price things. What prices would be, would then no doubt rely on the quantity of money available, and how high the liquidity preference remained.
  8. romans holiday

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Nice in theory, but would you have been happier to see economies crash and burn, as the 'system' was 'purged'? And then, aren't you also living in your own macro-economic model?
  9. romans holiday

    GOLD

    1] 'Real' value, in monetary terms, is utterly arbitary and contingent. There is no absolute benchmark, it's all relative. Then think of a balancing see-saw. At times of monetary/ credit expansion, asset prices inflate/ appreciate. Then when the reaction sets in, in times of monetary contraction, the currency in turn inflates/ appreciates. Nothing is fixed, and the dynamic, one way or the other, determines what will relatively increase or decrease in monetary value. 2] With currencies themselves caught up in a global economy in flux, where currencies themselves are playthings of international investors, gold enters the frame as the strongest/ heaviest symbolic form of money [currency]. In this global context, the monetary worth of both assets and currencies should be determined relative to the primal currency of gold. In this sense we are not quite so rational and scientific as we like to think. Watch how the world plays the actual game not how it thinks.
  10. romans holiday

    GOLD

    Weary or wary? Mind you, I'm getting weary of the short term trading discussion on the long term thread. All for the trading discussion, but why not put it where it belongs? You'll have a much more successful forum if it observes the discipline of separate threads for separate topics. You must be getting weary of my repeating this. Not to worry, I won't bother repeating much of anything if the threads can't get sorted out.
  11. romans holiday

    GOLD

    Nothing much new in the 'explanations' or fundamentals there. Saying gold is 'a good Buy, closer to key support at $1500' is pushing it when the chart is your guide and not speculation on 'fundamentals'. 1500 might be an OK buying target for someone with already a core position in gold and then looking to get a trade in. But for someone looking to build a core position, or increase it, that target is too low.... because improbable. A glance at the chart shows that with the price at these current levels is the time to buy, or start buying, averaging in etc as a large reverse head and shoulders is shaping up. This has always been bullish for the price. I'm starting to suspect you're an egoist Dr Bubb . That is, someone who can not see something objectively, from a 'disinterested' perspective. This thread is supposed to be focused on the Long Term trend of gold as an investment and yet your posts continually, habitually, show your own short term concerns as a trader, which, let's face it, can be as often wrong as they are right [the nature of trading]. Don't you want to see your forum giving sober advice to those new to gold on how and when to buy? As you've stated, you yourself have a core in gold, so why not help rather than hinder others to build a core?
  12. romans holiday

    SILVER

    An article posted yesterday commenting on the previous month's action in silver. Hardly very bright or predictive these retro 'technicians'. This posted last month, at the time of the wave up, predicting the consolidation we see now. http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=9164&view=findpost&p=241085
  13. romans holiday

    GOLD

    Balanced? Who bought gold above $1800, or $1900? Near all who discuss gold [as opposed to hedgies that jump on bandwagons] bought before the spike above the trend and are still showing a paper profit. Is it that difficult to discuss the Long Term theme/ trend, which you've agreed should be the focus of this thread?
  14. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    50 day MA moving up with silver still coming off a bit here. Looks like a good buying opportunity is shaping up.
  15. romans holiday

    SILVER

    50 day MA moving up with silver still coming off a bit here. Looks like a good buying opportunity is shaping up.
  16. romans holiday

    GOLD

    50 MDA turning up. Not a dent in the 200 MDA. Looks a good buy signal with the price below the moving averages here.
  17. romans holiday

    GOLD

    Relax a little bit dude.... why take it all so seriously?
  18. romans holiday

    GOLD

    edit
  19. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    Gold? It's on the base-line now [1600] so in 2 years the base-line should be around 2300/ 2400 [20 odd % yearly appreciation]. From there it should go on a wild spike at some point. Assuming the spike is similiar to the recent one which saw gold go from 1500 to 1900, gold could predictably spike from say 2300 to 3000. So silver spiking to 100 could see gold spike to 3000. Dollar index? Haven't the foggiest. Only doubt it will collapse.
  20. romans holiday

    SILVER

    Gold? It's on the base-line now [1600] so in 2 years the base-line should be around 2300/ 2400 [20 odd % yearly appreciation]. From there it should go on a wild spike at some point. Assuming the spike is similiar to the recent one which saw gold go from 1500 to 1900, gold could predictably spike from say 2300 to 3000. So silver spiking to 100 could see gold spike to 3000.... in 2 years or so. Dollar index? Haven't the foggiest. Only doubt it will collapse.
  21. romans holiday

    SILVER

    No certainties. Just calculated risks. The trade has been a long time in the making and based on my macro views combined with the charts.
  22. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    Because I'm looking to trade the volatility in silver. I only buy and hold gold. The idea with silver is to use the volatility of silver to increase my holding of US dollars. This also acts as a hedge against an equally heavy holding in gold. I don't consider it a complete hedge though and see gold and dollars as complementary forms of liquidity. Gold should still outperform dollars, but by trading those dollars against silver the dollar position may well outperform the B&H in gold... as gold is only rising 20 odd % yearly against the dollar. This heavy and leveraged trade also provides an exit plan. There's a good chance that buying double silver at 26 and again around 30 will give over a 1000% return if silver spikes through 100 in the next 2 or 3 years. Best to sell on this spike when it comes because every chance that silver will then correct to 50. I don't think silver leverages gold, all it leverages is the volatility to both sides. In the aggregate it should appreciate at a similiar rate to gold... 20 odd % a year.
  23. romans holiday

    SILVER

    Because I'm looking to trade the volatility in silver, and not to increase silver ounces but US dollars. I only buy and hold gold. This also acts as a hedge against an equally heavy holding in gold. I don't strictly consider it a complete 'hedge' though as see gold and dollars as complementary forms of liquidity. Gold should still outperform dollars, but by trading those dollars against silver the dollar position may well outperform the B&H in gold... as gold is only rising 20 odd % yearly against the dollar. This heavy and leveraged trade also provides an exit plan. There's a good chance that buying double silver at 26 and again around 30 will give over a 1000% return if silver spikes through 100 in the next 2 or 3 years. Best to sell on the spike when it comes because every chance that silver will then correct to 50. I don't think silver leverages gold, all it leverages is the volatility to both sides. In the aggregate it should appreciate at a similiar rate to gold... 20 odd % a year.
  24. romans holiday

    GOLD

    Heavy buy order on double silver not quite hit yet, with gold at 1630, silver 31.80
×