romans holiday

Bring it on!

The next couple of weeks could be interesting. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-flat-takes-cue-from-stable-euro-2013-02-08http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-flat-takes-cue-from-stable-euro-2013-02-08

Not before those pesky Luddite politicians smash the thing to pieces in a fit of rage and throw it out the window.

Keynesians, neoclassicists, Austrians etc are all just ideological labels. Economics is not like geometry or mathematics with abstract a priori truths - it's unfortunate that many professionally trained academic economists have thought it is in their desire to make economics a 'respectable' science. No, economics is simply rooted in human behaviour - observation and experience should shape economic thought that is primarily pragmatic. It's the same case with politics. No wonder economics was originally known as Political Economy. Unfortunately, the idea of 'pure science' has contaminated all of us today.

When economists want a 'weaker' currency, they mean this in a relative sense, that is, relative to other currencies. It may not be considered 'good for you' as an international man of money but it is 'good for the [specific] economy', which are what economists generally have in mind [but then I see a false dichotomy there and see the two as inter-connected]. The last thing they want is a 'strong' currency [relative to others]. Of course, what they should be aiming for is balance of trade and stable currencies. It simply is not a matter for pure theory/ logic, but more to do with real world relations and practical reason. Money is primarily a practical thing, and can not be overly theorized.

Well, simply a re-test of what I think was the 'bottom' put in June/ July last year [i sold a large position at 60 on the spike]. Sell point, after the next buy, is a bit trickier, I'm envisaging another spike like the previous one to say 70 odd. If the trend changes will change my targets. The point of the trade is to increase US dollars, and I think most would agree by now that the volaitity of silver is a good instrument for this.

200MA good as gold. 50MA turning upwards.

Steady on old chap. The 200MA is - 20% year on year as predicted:

Update.

A re-testing of the 1600 level and then off to the races? This would complete the large consolidating cup [bowl] seen since the spike in 2011.

40 on track this time?

it's always possble, but I will stick to my targets for this trade. Still looking for 40 to buy. Fundamentals, or should I say the perception of them, swing one way then the other.

An explosive move up [towards 90] on its way soon? But then it's not leveraging the price of silver, more just reflecting it.

Down-trend confirmed?:

This chart showing the relation between silver's short term volatility and its strengthening over the long term [the 200 MDA] should lead to the arguably obvious conclusion; precious metals will not act as 'inflation hedges' - with simply explosive moves up in price - but rather they will steadily appreciate in the aggregate being not simply [hyper] inflation hedges but currency hedges. Some have been predicting this quite unmysterious move in price for years.

Turn of the worm?

Telling time for silver:

Interesting spot for gold. Another wave down, or up up up?

You might be right, but you might be wrong [i wear my short term skeptic hat for this trade]. Depends on how soon I guess. I can still buy back in near 60 if the price continues to strengthen in the next couple weeks. But yes, I think you'll see silver back to around 50 shortly.

A third wave down?

Yep, feel I'm sailing pretty close to the wind here as the bottom could be in. The buy order for 40 is still in place, but if the price tracks sideway and up over the next few weeks will then consider buying back in at 50. That would be silver around 32.

You bought near the bottom of the consolidating phase, so there was always a good chance, given the volatility, that the price would continue to consolidate in the short term. It is in the medium/ long term that confidence is more well-placed towards an increase in the price [assuming silver/ gold is in a bull market]. When silver strengthens again, the short term paper loss will be eaten up very quickly. Stick with it. Check out the 200 MWA for silver; above 26.

A brief dip to 40 would see silver just below 29. This down-leg looks to be just about played out.

Yep, euphoria followed by some realism.

A re-test of 1600 would give a good symmetry to the large cup pattern forming since Sept '11..