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romans holiday

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Everything posted by romans holiday

  1. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    Yes, i think we agree it's a good vehicle for volatility in the relatively short term. A long AGQ is more complicated, and has perhaps caused some confusion. The timing of that long was crucial. I was waiting in USD for silver to collapse to 25 odd. I went in very heavily both for a long and for the counter hedging trade of volatility. I'm reasonably confident with the long because it was bought at the bottom of the massive long term consolidating trend [here is my silver/ gold long bias]. Even with an element of time decay involved, I think long AGQ will at least outperform $silver as silver strengthens next year. Of course, your strategy of shorting ZSL would be something to think about in regard to my long AGQ, but is not relevant, as I think you agree, to my 'shorting' AGQ in the short term on volatility.. to this trading thread.
  2. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    Yes, the discipline of this thread/ trade is effectively to 'short' silver, though I prefer to think of it as trading its volatility [i wear my dollar bull hat when on this thread]. Considering the virtues of ZSL would have to be done elsewhere i guess, and would involve a different motivation... along the lines of going long gold/ silver.... or to trade it within a longer time frame for dollars etc. Quite another kettle of fish to what I'm doing here.
  3. romans holiday

    GOLD

    Reckon the long term trend should hold alright... more of the same. Reason being, gold is an alternative currency. i see the term 'counter currency' is being bantered about lately.
  4. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    Ok, to more realistically replicate the trade: I sold AGQ at 60... now 52 IF I bought ZSL [at the same time, October] it was at 40..... it is now only at 42. AGQ trumps ZSL here by near four times. There is more volatility [in this time period] in AGQ, and it is volatility I am targeting. Even the earlier volatility to the upside compares favourably with ZSL; AGQ, 36-60, ZSL, 72-40.
  5. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    As I said, I'm more interested in a 'good enough' trade with minimal stress in real time circumstances. But I may still give ZSL some thought. I'm not sure whether there is ever an objective or 'correct' trade. Seems to me there are many subkective/ psychological factors involved in trading also. This is why one strategy may not suit another... or that there may never be one 'right' way to trade.
  6. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    Well, that's certainly food for thought. Some reasons why i settled on AGQ. Also, keep in mind the AGQ trade is relatively short term... over a period of say 3 months. 1] Good vehicle for volatility. 2] An easy buy and sell, as both bullish on silver and USD [forms strong of liquidity] 3] Simplicity... shorting a double short is taking it to another level of complexity, but still may give it some thought. 4] The trade is LARGE for me so want to keep risks to a minimum [the minimizing of risk also means giving up the aim to maximize gains]. 5] I have an over-all bias to be long silver [selling its volatility essentially involves hedging and diversification]. If trading ZSL i would have to at times buy a double short on silver. This is risky, for silver/ gold could explode at antime to the upside.
  7. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    Perhaps something to consider in regard to long silver. But this thread is concerned with trading silver [for USD] in the relative short term term, and is therefore more suited to AGQ. On this thread, the time decay element works to the trade's advantage. For example: $silver has only dropped from 35 to near 33. AGQ has dropped from 60 [where sold] to near 52!
  8. romans holiday

    GOLD

    Long term trend:
  9. romans holiday

    GOLD

    Down-trend resumed?
  10. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    Yep, no prob. Now that I am posting regularly, the thread shouldn't be too hard to find on the main board.
  11. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    To be frank, I have something of a 'mind-block' towards strikes, puts, calls etc. Perhaps this is because over and above markets, I am also occupied with other pursuits at the moment. Call me a lazy trader, but the strategy I've settled on involves minimal mental/ time expenditure. Different strokes for different folks etc. AGQ suits me because I can simply buy and sell an instrument which is extremely volatile, and it's this volatility I want to trade. That there is a time decay element, where AGQ could deteriorate further than simply silver over a three month period or so, also suits me because when I sell AGQ I want to buy lower... then sell again on a spike. So taking my latest trade for an example; AGQ was sold at 60 when silver was 35.... AGQ is now well down at 53 with silver only having come down to 33.5. So instead of AGQ pulling back 3 points [twice that of silver's 1.5] it has pulled back over twice that. Excellent for my purposes where I currently have a buy order in at 40. With this trade, I am not looking to accumulate units of AGQ but USD. If i miss the trade this time, easy enough to find another point to trade the volatility. Keep in mind, this trade is a hedge, in the sense of currency diversity, from long gold/ silver. The bigger picture, over and above this trade, is long positions in both gold and AGQ [to sell on the big spike I think is coming in a year or two]. That AGQ is a relatively easy buy and sell for me, almost care-free, reflects my macro views where silver and USD are both strong forms of liquidity.... for now. Of course, the proof is in the pudding. I have had one successful trade so far which has near covered the cost of my long AGQ position. Because I trade infrequently, these positions and trades are relatively large involving near all the liquid capital I have at my disposal..
  12. romans holiday

    GOLD

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-futures-retreat-after-sharp-gains-2012-11-30
  13. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    Good example of the disparity between $silver and AGQ. The time decay element shows AGQ a lot lower relative to $silver than you would otherwise expect. Obviously advantageous for trading volatility.
  14. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    Extended the buy order [AGQ at 40] for a couple more months. Looking for December to be a down month.
  15. romans holiday

    SILVER

    Will be interesting to see if silver can push through 35 here or whether there is further consolidation in the recent trading range.
  16. romans holiday

    GOLD

    Nah, more like the first civilization co-incided with the mining of gold.
  17. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    Good analysis here: http://news.goldseek.../1353511500.php
  18. romans holiday

    SILVER

    Good analysis here: http://news.goldseek.../1353511500.php
  19. romans holiday

    GOLD

    Good ananlysis of the trend here:
  20. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    A major factor in reading a continued down-trend is passage of time. Averaging the down-trends of the previous two [as seen on the longer term chart] you'd expect this one to last for 2 or 3 months. Current down-trend is only a month or so old.
  21. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    Down trend re-commenced?
  22. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    Pivotal point here. Am looking for the trend down to continue. However, if wrong and AGQ instead heads up towards near 60, will look at rebuying just below where it was sold. This reflects my medium/ long term bias to the upside.... over and above short term volatility.
  23. romans holiday

    GOLD

    Gold down to 1670, back to the base of the cup.
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