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romans holiday

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Everything posted by romans holiday

  1. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    Heavy buy order in for AGQ at 40.
  2. romans holiday

    SILVER

    There's a pattern that has often been seen on spikes and the following corrections. The price consolidates then strengthens in the shape of a jagged curve. I call it by the technical name of 'the Cheshire Cat grin'! Following this pattern, silver could easily see 30 here. Viewing the larger pattern, the bottom looks to be in.
  3. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    Possible buy, Silver 30, A 45.
  4. romans holiday

    GOLD

    http://www.reuters.c...E88N0UU20120925 "The investment interest in gold continues to rise, as we see COMEX net length increasing and gold ETF (exchange-traded fund) holdings up," said Li Ning, an analyst at Shanghai CIFCO Futures. "There is a strong likelihood that gold will rise further." Holdings in physically backed gold ETFs rose to a record high of 73.765 million ounces, or 2,294.348 metric tons, by September 24. Spot gold was little changed at $1,765 an ounce by 0308 GMT, after dropping to a one-week low of $1,755.30 in the previous session. U.S. gold edged up 0.2 percent to $1,768. Some argued that though the sentiment in gold will continue to be supported by easy monetary policies, the momentum might be dampened by sluggish physical demand and high speculative interest in the futures market. "We still prefer to be buying gold on dips and believe the break higher will eventually come. But the futures market needs to lose some speculative length and the physical market needs to adjust to a higher price range first," said Walter de Wet, an analyst at Standard Bank in a research note. He expected gold to reach $1,900 in the latter half of the fourth quarter.
  5. romans holiday

    SILVER

    Hello, and thanks for the compliment. I feel relatively confident that silver should be on a decent up leg for the next year or two, and so the 'sit and hold' position in AGQ should be that long [that said, am also hedged against this]. I then plan to sell the lot on some spike as these funds are ear-marked for property. In the past, silver spiked to 20, retraced to 10 then spiked near 50. If that is matched in the next leg up, silver should strengthen from 25 to above 100. Even with the element of time decay taken into account, the instrument should at least perform as well as silver. Take the element of time decay out, and calculate AGQ with silver at 100, and the number is a bit mind-numbing.
  6. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    Cheers. I will continue trading the volatility of silver perhaps as much as two or three times a year. Low frequency trading because each trade is, in relative terms, a large portion of my stash. Though in the mediate term am confident these instruments will rise, will be interesting to see what they do in the immediate term.
  7. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    Thanks for the thoughts PD, but I think you haven't understood my over-all strategy. It is a hedging one, in the full sense of the word, so I should not find myself tied up in a psychological knot about whether to sell or not. Your reply is to a post where I was wearing my bullion bull hat. If you look at the following two posts of mine, I am wearing my dollar bull/ trading hat. To clarify, here are the two aspects that hedge each other: 1] Stay long AGQ. Even with time decay, the double leveraged instrument should do at least as well as silver. Here I am wearing my bullion bull hat. 2] Trade another AGQ position where I am concerned solely in using the volatility in silver to increase US dollars. Here there is not too much concern about the price of silver going higher when I sell as the long position covers that. The point is to identify reasonable/ good enough entry and exit points. I'm thinking at this stage of selling each time on a 70-100% gain. I am wearing my dollar bull hat here. On the face of it there is a straight hedge here. But over and above this, and with the macro theory of hyper-deflation in mind, the long hold and the short trade of AGQ can also be considered complementary; the expectation being both positions appreciate in value due to the fact that silver will remain volatile to both sides against the dollar.... though appreciating in the aggregate. It will be interesting to see whether the trade will outperform the hold. PS, I've never followed James Turk, nice enough guy but he has his own wheel-barrow to push being in the bullion business.
  8. romans holiday

    SILVER

    Thanks for the thoughts PD, but I think you haven't understood my over-all strategy. It is a hedging one, in the full sense of the word, so I should not find myself tied up in a psychological knot about whether to sell or not. Your reply is to a post where I was wearing my bullion bull hat. If you look at the following two posts of mine, I am wearing my dollar bull/ trading hat. To clarify, here are the two aspects that hedge each other: 1] Stay long AGQ. Even with time decay, the double leveraged instrument should do at least as well as silver. Here I am wearing my bullion bull hat. 2] Trade another AGQ position where I am concerned solely in using the volatility in silver to increase US dollars. Here there is not too much concern about the price of silver going higher when I sell as the long position covers that. The point is to identify reasonable/ good enough entry and exit points. I'm thinking at this stage of selling each time on a 70-100% gain. I am wearing my dollar bull hat here. On the face of it there is a straight hedge here. But over and above this, and with the macro theory of hyper-deflation in mind, the long hold and the short trade of AGQ can also be considered complementary; the expectation being both positions appreciate in value due to the fact that silver will remain volatile to both sides against the dollar.... though appreciating in the aggregate. It will be interesting to see whether the trade will outperform the hold. PS, I've never followed James Turk, nice enough guy but he has his own wheel-barrow to push being in the bullion business.
  9. romans holiday

    SILVER

    No, it means selling half the position, and realizing a gain of 50% on that in US dollars. And then recycling those funds into AGQ at an opportune moment, on a correction, and re-selling on a spike etc. The reason being to reduce risk in an instrument where there is uncertainty about long term performance, ie, time decay. I do this because I am at the moment very heavily in an instrument which leverages the volatility of silver.
  10. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    Even with the element of time decay taken into account, AGQ should perform at least as well as the $silver ETF over the longer term. Hence do not mind leaving the other 50% sitting in it.
  11. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    Comparing AGQ to silver, you can see the 'time decay' element in the leveraged ETF. Though excellent for short/ medium term volatility, time decay may make it more problematic for sititng on. To hedge the risk of this, I've decided to trade half the position; take a 50% profit on half, and re-invest after a period of consolidation. Even though this may mean buying at a higher price, the point of the hedge trade is to increase a US dollar position.
  12. romans holiday

    SILVER

    Comparing AGQ to silver, you can see the 'time decay' element in the leveraged ETF. Though excellent for short/ medium term volatility, time decay may make it more problematic for sititng on. To hedge the risk of this, I've decided to trade half the position; take a 50% profit on half, and re-invest after a period of consolidation. Even though this may mean buying at a higher price, the point of the hedge trade is to increase a US dollar position.
  13. romans holiday

    SILVER

    Sure, but a Jesse Livermore quote comes to mind... something along the lines of letting your winning position run. And this from a trader.
  14. romans holiday

    SILVER

    Perhaps the hardest part of the trade, besides having sat in dollars and waited for the spike to correct, will be holding on to the position, It will be very tempting to sell at 80, or 100, or then again at 200 and then 400. My exit plan consists of being able to buy an apartment in the capital, and with plenty of capital spare. Could be another year or so in the camper..
  15. romans holiday

    GOLD

    After the correction of '08, gold steadily strengthened 50%, over a couple of years, before breaking out of the trend on its spike to 1900. If gold 'rhymes' here after this correction, it should steadily strengthen to 2700 [1800 + 50%] over the next couple of years.... before breaking out on a new spike. That spike could see the price go briefly to 3400 odd.
  16. romans holiday

    GOLD

    http://news.goldseek.com/BullionVault/1347284340.php Investment bank UBS today raised its one-month gold price forecast from $1700 per ounce to $1850 per ounce, and its silver price forecast to $37 per ounce, up from $32 per ounce. One Citi analyst meantime says gold could rise to $2500 per ounce in the first quarter of next year, the New York Post reports.
  17. romans holiday

    GOLD

    Looking at the 5 year log chart, gold only a smidgen of its high.
  18. romans holiday

    Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

    Silver looking back in business.
  19. romans holiday

    SILVER

    Thanks Klogger. That's the chart screaming bullish. Yes, reading in a similiar way; I reckon the next year will see silver push back to 50, and then a year or so after that break out and spike to 100. I heavily bought silver on this dip, and will be putting in sell orders on silver at 90 or 100 once silver strengthens to 50 odd. Because taking the previous pattern into account silver could easily spike to 100 only to consolidate back to 50.
  20. romans holiday

    SILVER

    Nice chart. Any chance of doing it on a log chart?
  21. romans holiday

    SILVER

    I kind of hope so, but doubt it. An elderly aunt asked me about investing in silver, and I told her to think about it a bit as one has to be careful about financial things with elderly relatives. Anyway sure enough, silver wakes up and heads north a bit; and though it may consolidate, it may equally carry on slowly upwards as it has been in a downward consolidating trend for so long, and now the season is right for it to start strengthening.
  22. romans holiday

    GOLD

    Inflation? Deflation? All this flip-flopping derives from the lack of a unifying clear idea of the big picture. Identifying inflation/ deflation with higher or lower prices was always considered a newbie error. In order to avoid what the economists termed 'money illusion' we have to focus on monetary value, which is at a more fundamental level than the surface of units and prices. I think investors struggle with this today because our thinking tends to confine itself to 'appearances'. There are not many 'metaphysicians' left who see beyond the short term flux. The way to unify the appearances of both inflation and deflation is to view all things, currencies included, deflating relative to gold, the most powerful symbol of money. The deflation/ depreciation of currency relative to gold + the deflation/ depreciation of assets relative to currency = hyper-deflation.
  23. romans holiday

    SILVER

    Early spring for silver?
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