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romans holiday

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  1. Gold - 5 years

     

    551CBCF5-89FF-48B4-94F7-0983F08A19CE-415-0000007CF68A9F30_zpse84d0277.jpg

     

    How low can it go?

     

    Interesting chart [even if linear]. A lot is usually made of the spike to 1900, but it was just a spike driven by the hottest money. So take the froth off the top, and the steady increase to the level of 1600 level looks more significant. From the 1600 level, we see an even greater spike down now to near 1200. So you'd have to think a retracement to 1600 is on the cards.

  2. Recent events in the precious metals sector are a graphic illustration why being "all in" might not be such a good idea.

     

    Because you might be wrong.

     

    Yep, better to predict on the basis of theory than believe on the basis of dogma. You'll then hedge.

     

    My interpretation on current events is that the volatility in bullion prices has been deeper and longer than predicted. Still think bullion prices will head up again.

  3. SSOL_zpsff58be6a.png

     

    Notice how the lower graphic in percentage/ logarithmic terms puts the 2008 and 2013 declines on a parity. Yet the parity is distorted in the upper chart, where the decline looks to be of a larger magnitude thanks to that darn use of the linear. Anyway, no call for panic stations yet.

  4. I bang on a lot about log charts because it helps you see through the illusion of talking the numbers/ units as your measuring stick. If you simply looked at the numbers, you might freak at the fall of $500 from 1850 at the peak to 1350 at the latest dip. Yet pull up a long term log chart [goldprice.org is good for this] and the latest crash just looks garden variety and on a par with the crash in 2008. Though the crashes are of similiar magnitude, the earlier crash only involved half the numbers/ units of this later one.

  5. Don't know if you saw this Roman;

    Don't know if you saw this Roman;

     

    Yep, did notice that. You were correlating the immediate crash in silver with the longer term consolidation in gold if i remember right. Could perhaps be a signal there, where the short collapse in silver gives you the long consolidation in gold?

     

    I was more focused on comparing gold with gold, and in the two phases of consolidations/ crashes we've seen. On that basis, you'd think the bottom was in.

  6. It rather looks as if GLD is experiencing a parabolic blow off top..........

    PT1_zps6eb812df.png

     

     

    ............when measured in GDX

     

    This chart is GLD / GDX. The point at which the price trajectory is heading 0° is 27th April and since price trajectory cannot go <0° this suggests to me gold miners will bottom within the next 5 trading days (if they haven't already)

     

    Would be more interesting to look at on the log chart. : )

  7. So a lot of talk about physical here, just wondering how people are feeling who are holding the miners, though I guess people might not want to talk about their losses??

     

    I've been pretty defensive trying to target producers with low costs and I'm still hurting so can't imagine what people holding some juniors feel. Just noticed my first investment in black rock gold and general which I bought when gold was under $400 an ounce but have admittedly added to on dips is just about to tick into a loss. Really not sure what to do right now after reading this on fs by Pru Saxena who's opinion I've valued, calling the end of the bull market.

     

    http://www.financial...ort-commodities

     

    Saxena has flip-flopped on gold in the past, and no doubt will do so again.

     

    PS. No certainties.

  8.  

    The metal is in “bubble territory” and will fall to $1,375 by the end of the year as a U.S. recovery leads to rising interest rates, Societe Generale SA said in an April 2 report. Credit Suisse cut its 2013 forecast by 9.2 percent to $1,580 two days ago and Goldman Sachs predicts prices will be at $1,600 in six months. Gold averaged a record $1,669 last year.

    ......

    Gold will climb to an average of $1,800 in the fourth quarter on demand for an alternative currency and protection from Europe’s debt crisis, Commerzbank said in a March 21 report. Low real interest rates and global liquidity will remain dominant drivers, Standard Bank said in a report last month, forecasting prices as high as $1,780 in the third quarter.

    .......

    The plunge has pushed gold’s 14-day relative strength index to 28.4, below the level of 30 that indicates to some analysts who study technical charts that a rebound may be imminent. It fell into a bear market in June 2006 and August 2008, before as much as doubling to a record $1,921.15 in September 2011.

     

    http://www.bloomberg...ommodities.html

  9. Exactly - because its governments that control the markets nowadays.

     

    They want equity prices to rise and bullion to fall. Hey presto!

     

    Ignore logic and rationality. Just go with the trend!

     

    'The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.' JM Keynes.

  10. http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1360937700.php

     

    Is Gold Becoming a Risk-off Asset?

    Lately we’ve been writing about the negative correlation between the equity market and the precious metals market. This phenomenon has been in place since summer 2011 and has re emerged in the past few months. Since November 23, the S&P 500 is up 8% while the gold shares are down 14%, Silver has lost 11% and Gold 7%. For those who have studied history this should not come as a total surprise. From 1972 to 1977 and November 2000 to July 2002, precious metals and the equity market trended in opposite directions. We’ve postulated that precious metals and the mining shares won’t begin a new bull phase until the cyclical bull market in US equities ends. We don’t expect that to happen immediately but there are some important signals beneath the surface (with the safe-havens) that we should direct our attention to.

     

    .....

    The bottom line is the action in precious metals, commodities and the US$ is signaling a warning for the equity market. The bond market needs to confirm this warning and if it does it could be the catalyst for a selloff in equities. Keep in mind, the S&P 500 is approaching strong long-term resistance while in a state of euphoric sentiment.

  11. Not a dent in the 200MA. Gold continues its steady appreciation against currencies though now in a consolidating phase. If June/July 2012 marked the bottom of the consolidating cup then after this current re-test of the bottom wouldn't be surprised to see a rapid move to 1800-1900.

     

     

    steady_zps36c56193.png

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